Oscar Predictions: Longlegs

Prior to its release on July 12th, Longlegs from Osgood Perkins is generating some loud buzz. The horror thriller stars It Follows actress Maika Monroe alongside Nicolas Cage as a doll making serial killer who’s barely glimpsed in the effective trailers. Blair Underwood, Alicia Witt, and Kiernan Shipka costar.

The Neon release is drawing some comparisons to The Silence of the Lambs and not just because it’s set in the 1990s. Lambs was an anomaly as the only horror flick to take BP and win Director, Actor, Actress, and Adapted Screenplay for good measure. This is not a genre that often resonates with the Academy and I suspect Longlegs won’t either despite the current 100% RT score. I would note that most reviews are not putting it in the Lambs league.

Critics are praising Cage for his creepy work. Don’t be surprised if Neon mounts a Supporting Actor campaign, but I highly doubt it will pan out in the long run. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Smile Review

Parker Finn’s Smile is essentially The Ring if that distorted VHS tape were replaced with a distorted facial expression. As these jump scare heavy horror pics go, this one usually hits the right notes (including with its sound design).

Dr. Rose Cotter (Sosie Bacon) is a psychologist working at a busy mental ward. She makes the acquaintance of Laura (Caitlin Stasey), who witnessed her professor commit suicide. Ever since then, she’s been traumatized by an unseen being. Laura is a basket case until… she’s not and a creepy grin emerges. Those who’ve witnessed the trailer know that bloodshed follows.

What also follows (it follows… so to speak) is an evil spirit possibly latching onto the doctor and no one believing her. This includes her fiancee (Jessie T. Usher), an ex boyfriend who’s a cop (Kyle Gallner), and her sister (Gillian Zinser). Their skepticism is understandable as a family tragedy when Rose was 10 years old might explain her bizarre behavior.

Besides the mentions of It Follows and The Ring, Finn’s debut (he wrote it too) borrows plenty from earlier genre pieces. While originality isn’t its strong suit, there are a few legitimately hair raising instances. There’s one session with Rose’s therapist that’s far scarier than the bill.

Despite a few unnecessary shots that seem inspired by Inception, Finn seems like a filmmaker to keep an eye on. Bacon (daughter of Kevin and Kyra Sedgwick) is given a few good moments of genuinely convincing terror. This is genre work executed well as these characters smile though their arteries are bursting.

*** (out of four)

It Follows Movie Review

David Robert Mitchell’s low budget horror tale It Follows is set in what appears to be a suspended period of time. In the very first scene, we hear a cell phone trying to catch the attention of a young girl in distress. What follows is a parade of landline phones, small screen TVs, actual magazines of pornography and, most horrifically, jean jackets. I suspect this is due to my feeling that its writer/director wishes he could’ve made this picture in the 1980s when John Carpenter and others were making their B movies of the genre. This is clearly where the main influence of It Follows lies and much of this minimalist homage works quite well.

The stars of the pic are not the actors who populate it, but mainly its cinematographer Mike Gioulakis and musical composer Disasterpeace. The movie is filled with remarkable camerawork and shots that will stay with you while its 80s inspired score is a gem.

As for the movie itself, It Follows cleverly reverses a well known cliche in the genre. From the advent of the slasher flick, it’s been the act of sex that often gets our teen characters in the most trouble. While that also holds true here, it’s the same physical act that apparently rids you of the film’s curse.

So just what is “It”? That’s what our main heroine and high schooler Jay (Maika Monroe) must learn after she hooks up with a college dude who then proceeds to inform her that their carnal act will not just involve a walk of shame. In fact, through sex, he’s passed along a curse. The cursed are then proceeded to be followed and terrorized by an entity that can take any form and that only they can see. It’s only, she’s told, through passing it her along herself that she can rid herself of it.

Jay’s predicament soon involves her friends trying to help her out and this includes an eventual love triangle with the cool jean jacket sporting neighbor and her nerdier jean jacket sporting longtime friend. At times, It Follows doesn’t even appear to follow its own rules and the origin of the entity is never explained.

Yet that’s not the point here. The origin doesn’t really need to be explained. The pic is aimed squarely at stoking the nostalgia for the low budget horror titles from the three decades past and that’s where it often succeeds. I’ll confess that I didn’t find it as scary as its reputation has suggested, but there’s certainly some white knuckle moments. The cinematography and music stuck with this viewer the most and its craftsmanship in those areas left me most impressed.

*** (out of four)

http://youtu.be/YYk98s6IzgY

Box Office Predictions: April 3-5

It’s Easter weekend at the box office and Furious 7, the seventh installment of the wildly popular Fast and Furious franchise, looks to set the all-time April opening weekend record and mark the largest debut of 2015 so far. My prediction has it managing both. My detailed prediction post can be read here:

Furious 7 Box Office Prediction

With Furious being the only new player this weekend (any direct competitors smartly got out of the way), that just leaves holdovers. Dreamworks animated Home had a much higher premiere than anyone (especially me) anticipated. It should dip by the low 40s in its sophomore frame.

The Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy Get Hard also experienced a solid opening, but it looks poised for a heftier fall in weekend two. Insurgent and Cinderella should round out the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the holiday weekend:

1. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $117.4 million

2. Home

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. Get Hard

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. Insurgent

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Cinderella

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

Box Office Results (March 27-29)

As mentioned, the animated Home surpassed everyone’s expectations with a stealthy $52.1 million debut, rocketing beyond my meager $24.6M projection. Clearly, family audiences were ready for something new and decided there was no place like Home this weekend.

Get Hard had a solid opening with $33.8 million, a bit above my $30.3M prediction. On the flip side, it earned a mediocre B Cinemascore grade and was savaged by critics, so it seems destined to fade pretty quickly.

Last week’s champ Insurgent fell to third with $21.5 million in weekend #2, a bit below my $24M estimate. It is currently lagging behind the pace that its predecessor Divergent accomplished and the two week total stands at $85 million.

Cinderella was fourth with $17 million, under my $19.1M projection. The Disney hit’s total is currently at $149 million.

The critically lauded indie horror pic It Follows opened fifth with a commendable $3.8 million on just 1200 screens, outpacing my $2.7M prediction.

In sixth was Kingsman: The Secret Service at $2.9 million, just under my $3.5M projection. Its total is at $119 million.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

It Follows Box Office Prediction

After it premiered in May 2014 at the Cannes Film Festival, the low budget indie horror flick It Follows received rave reviews, so much so that it stands at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. With a cast of unknowns and a director helming his first theatrical feature, Follows debuts in approximately 1200 theaters this Friday.

Its critical acclaim gives it the only real shot of breaking out at the box office. While reviews have deemed it terrifying, it is still tough to imagine that happening. The marketing campaign has been subdued and a better bet is the picture finding a cult following once it reaches VOD and cable.

I’ll predict a soft opening that will keep it outside the top five.

It Follows opening weekend prediction: $2.7 million