Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, bumping my estimate from $39.8 million to $43.8 million

Blake Lively’s husband Ryan Reynolds will certainly have the largest summer 2024 opening with Deadpool & Wolverine, but her romantic drama It Ends with Us could be poised for an impressive beginning. Based on a 2016 novel by Colleen Hoover that was a huge bestseller, Lively costars with Justin Baldoni. He also handles directorial duties. The supporting cast includes Jenny Slate, Hasan Minhaj, and Brandon Sklenar.

Originally set for release in February, then June, and finally settling on the August date, Ends should be shrewd seasonal counter programming. The Sony release could perform similarly to last year’s Where the Crawdads Sing. It was also based on a wildly popular book. Opening to $17 million in July 2022, it eventually legged out to $90 million domestically.

Ends might even be more front loaded. Some estimates have this in the $25 million range. My hunch is to go higher in the upper 30s to even low 40s.

It Ends with Us opening weekend prediction: $43.8 million

For my Borderlands prediction, click here:

Borderlands Box Office Prediction