It’s become a common occurrence over the past few Labor Day weekends to see a high-profile picture from our neighbor to the south released stateside. 2018 is no different as Mexican drama Ya Veremos opens domestically Friday. The pic comes from director Pedro Pablo Ibarra with a cast including Mauricio Ochmann, Fernanda Castillo, and Emiliano Aramayo.
A number of these selections are from distributor Pantelion Films, which is behind this. Veremos has performed well in Mexico. The release pattern has been extremely consistent for these imports – a debut with a theater count of 300-400 screens. This is slated to premiere on 350.
The results, however, have been varied. 2013’s Instructions Not Included provided the high mark with $10.3 million. Nothing has matched that since. 2014’s Cantinflas took in $3.5 million. 2016’s No Manches Frida made $4.6 million. Last summer’s Hazlo Como Hombre managed just $1.4 million. All of these grosses were for the four-day holiday frame.
Recent trends would indicate Veremos is more likely to come in on the low-end of that scale and not hit the surprising earnings of Instructions five years ago.
Ya Veremos opening weekend prediction: $2.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Hollywood is pretty much taking the Labor Day weekend off and the highest debut (unless Tulip Fever blossoms which is unlikely) could well be Pantelion’s Hazlo Como Hombre. The Spanish language comedy comes from a studio that is used to releasing their product on this particular weekend to robust results.
Four years ago, Pantelion’s studio put out Instructions Not Included and shocked box office prognosticators with a $10.3 million four-day holiday gross. Last year during the same frame, No Manches Frida took in $4.6 million. The release pattern for both pics were similar: put them out in 300-something theaters and watch the high per screen averages roll in.
The studio had a huge hit earlier this year with How to Be a Latin Lover, which debuted in over 1000 theaters and made over $12 million for its start. Hombre is slated to premiere on approximately 370 screens. Not every Pantelion pic has been a success, as June’s 3 Idiotas stumbled with just north of $600,000 on the typical 300ish screens.
So where’s that put this one? Well, it’s unpredictable when you look over the history, but I’ll say this performs similarly yet a bit lower to No Manches Frida in the $3-potentially $5M range.
Hazlo Como Hombre opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
How to Be a Latin Lover hits stateside screens next weekend and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that it could be a decent sleeper hit. The rom com stars Eugenio Derbez, who’s a massive movie star in Latin America. Lover boasts a supporting cast of recognizable faces including Salma Hayek, Rob Lowe, Kristen Bell, Michael Cera, Raquel Welch, and Rob Riggle.
In 2013, Derbez directed and starred in Instructions Not Included, which shocked domestic box office prognosticators when it made nearly $8 million on only 347 screens. It eventually made $44M in the U.S. Lover is bound to be a huge hit in Mexico when it premieres on May 5.
I don’t quite expect Instructions numbers here. Then again, no one saw Instructions coming either. I’ll say it manages between $5-possibly $7 million for a respectable showing.
How to Be a Latin Lover opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million