Tag: Inside Out 2

97th Academy Awards Predictions: October 6th Edition

At the 92nd Academy Awards that occurred in February 2020, Joker led the way with 11 nominations and 2 victories for Joaquin Phoenix in Actor and the Original Score. At the 97th ceremony, the story will be much different. Joker: Folie à Deux debuted yesterday. It currently has matching 32% ratings with critics and audiences and a D Cinemascore grade (the worst of 2024 and lower than Megalopolis).

A couple of months ago, Deux was seen as a repeat possibility in Best Picture and for Phoenix and costar Lady Gaga. Now I think it’s a legitimate question as to whether Joker gets any nominations at all. Even with the poor word-of-mouth and incoming subpar box office numbers, some tech races are still viable. However, I would not surprised if it totally blanks. That’s what I’m projecting at the moment.

We have a change in Best Picture with The Room Next Door back in over Saturday Night. There’s been a consistent 5 in Best Actor for weeks, but that’s interrupted with Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) sliding in with Daniel Craig (Queer) falling to sixth. In Supporting Actress, Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) rises over Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).

Speaking of Pérez, there’s uncertainty whether it will contend for Original or Adapted Screenplay. I’ve had it in the former and it now moves to the latter.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+2)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-3)

12. September 5 (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7 (E)

8. Mohammad Rasolouf, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jason Reitman, Saturday Night

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Drew Starkey, Queer

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+1)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)

9. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay

The Substance

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Queer (PR: 6) (-3)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Piano Lesson

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)

9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dahomey

Caught by the Tides

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Flow (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daughters (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Union (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Separated

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Anora (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (E)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+!)

7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Blitz (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 10) (+6)

5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 5) (-3)

9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maria (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Twisters

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 4) (E)

5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Better Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wicked (PR: 7) (-3)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Brutalist

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

Blitz

6 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, A Real Pain

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 28th Edition

When I did my forecast for the 96th Academy Awards around the same late September time frame last year, it yielded nine of the ten eventual Best Picture nominees. The only miss was not having The Zone of Interest in the hopefuls and I had it ranked 11th in other possibilities. It is also worth noting that eventual winner Oppenheimer was ranked #1.

For Best Director, it was four of five with Christopher Nolan correctly atop my chart. Four of five was also the score for Best Actress and Actor and I had victors Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) in first. For the supporting races, both were 3 out of five. In Supporting Actress, Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) was listed in second while Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) was projected highest in Supporting Actor. In the Screenplay derbies, it was 3 of 5 in each with Adapted recipient American Fiction and Original top finisher Anatomy of a Fall both listed 4th of 5.

That history lesson illustrates that the script for the previous Oscars had largely been written several months before nominations were unveiled. Will the 97th ceremony follow a similar pattern?

It sure doesn’t seem like it. I maintain that there’s no clear frontrunner for BP while Oppenheimer was definitely in that position a year ago. Solid to fair cases could be made for Blitz, The Brutalist, Anora, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, or Dune: Part Two to take gold. There’s also no slam dunks thus far in the acting competitions whereas Downey Jr. was kind of a no-brainer at this juncture and Murphy, Stone, and Randolph were in the 1 or 2 positions in their races.

That makes it all the more intriguing as the 2024 season plays out. The big news this week was that TIFF People’s Choice Winner The Life of Chuck will not open until summer 2025. Therefore you’ll see it drop from contention everywhere I had it listed as a possibility below. Last week, I only had Chuck actually being nominated in Adapted Screenplay. It is replaced by Dune.

I considered elevating the unseen Blitz back to first position in BP, but am giving it to The Brutalist still by a hair. It was announced this week that the latter will release on December 20th via A24. There is one change in BP as I’m putting in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain for its initial top 10 appearance at the expense of The Room Next Door.

This week I’m also shutting the door on Tilda Swinton in Best Actress for The Room Next Door with Nightbitch‘s Amy Adams returning to the quintet. I went back and forth about whether to include Adams or Babygirl‘s Nicole Kidman.

You can all view all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (E)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)

14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (E)

7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+3)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (E)

5. Blitz (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)

9. September 5 (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Vermiglio (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All We Imagine as Light

Pedro Páramo

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Savages (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Skywalkers: A Love Story

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Anora (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Wicked (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Maria (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maria (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

The Room Next Door

The Life of Chuck

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+2)

5. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (E)

8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

“We’re Back” from Moana 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Better Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

And that adds up to these numbers generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Blitz

9 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

6 Nominations

Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nickel Boys, Wicked, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 21st Edition

The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have all concluded and the Oscar landscape is looking a bit clearer for the 97th edition of the ceremony. Per usual with the festivals, there are films that rise and those that fall. No film rose more than Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice, but Toronto gave us a shocker in the form of Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck. The sci-fi flick based on a Stephen King novella took People’s Choice at the Canadian event. 15 of the last 16 victors of that prize have received a Best Picture nomination including the past 12 in a row. We still don’t know which distributor will buy Chuck and it’s not confirmed to be out this year. For that matter, we also don’t know for a fact that A24’s The Brutalist will make the ’24 calendar. For now I’m assuming both will. That means I’m elevating Chuck from unranked to #11 in my BP possibilities on the outside just looking in.

There was a significant announcement that Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore will be both be campaigned in lead actress for The Room Next Door. That means Swinton enters my quintet in that category with Amy Adams (Nightbitch) dropping. With Swinton leaving supporting, Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) resurfaces there. It has also been confirmed that Saoirse Ronan will vie for Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress in Blitz. I continue to list her a double nominee.

We have a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) in with Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) falling out of the projected five.

For the last few months, I’ve included 25 BP contenders and 15 for Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions. As I typically do around this time of year, I will condense this to 15 BPs and 10 in the others. Got all that? Good!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

12. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

13. September 5 (PR: 16) (+3)

14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)

15. A Real Pain (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Queer

Nosferatu

The Apprentice

All We Imagine as Light

Joker: Folie à Deux

The Piano Lesson

Wicked

Juror No. 2

His Three Daughters

A Different Man

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)

8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

Jason Reitman, Saturday Night

James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Luca Guadagnino, Queer

Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door

Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters

June Squibb, Thelma

Zendaya, Challengers

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night

Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys

John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to lead actress

Lesley Manville, Queer

Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Drew Starkey, Queer

Harris Dickinson, Blitz

Mark Eidelstein, Anora

Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson

John Lithgow, Conclave

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (+1)

5. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Hard Truths (PR: 10) (+1)

10. September 5 (PR: 13) (+3)

Dropped Out:

His Three Daughters

Dídi

Kinds of Kindness

A Different Man

Juror No. 2

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

7. Queer (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

I’m Still Here

Gladiator II

Nightbitch

Inside Out 2

Nosferatu

The Wild Robot

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (E)

9. Pedro Páramo (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Simon of the Mountain

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Daughters (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Union (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Anora (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saturday Night (PR: 10 (E)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+3)

4. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Conclave (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Substance (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Queer

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

“Why Am I Here” from Shirley

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maria (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Here (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

8 Nominations

Blitz

6 Nominations

Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Conclave, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

Maria, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Joker: Folie à Deux, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Life of Chuck, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, Will & Harper

Oscar Predictions: The Wild Robot

The 74th Academy Awards was the first year where Best Animated Feature was presented and DreamWorks Animation took that initial prize with Shrek. The studio has yet to win the race again as Disney has mostly dominated it. They are hoping for their second statue at the 97th ceremony courtesy of The Wild Robot.

Having premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its September 27th domestic debut, Chris Sanders (co-director of How to Train Your Dragon and The Croods) made the sci-fi fantasy based on Peter Brown’s series of novels. Voiceover work comes from Lupita Nyong’o, Pedro Pascal, Kit Connor, Bill Nighy, Stephanie Hsu, Mark Hamill, Catherine O’Hara, and Ving Rhames.

Early word-of-mouth from our neighbor to the north is welcoming. With an 83% Metacritic score and no tomatoes at press time, The Wild Robot is a serious contender not only for a nomination (which appears to be a foregone conclusion), but a victory.

In order to do that, it will still need to surpass Inside Out 2 from you know who. In my view, that is not a foregone conclusion. Yet DreamWorks probably has its best shot since that green ogre. Beyond Animated Feature, Robot‘s Original Score from Kris Bowers is being heralded. There’s also a song from Maren Morris titled “Kiss the Sky” that looks to make that quintet. Either are possible as those competitions are just starting to take shape. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Piece by Piece

Morgan Neville’s Piece by Piece looks to build awards momentum at the Telluride and Toronto festivals before its October 11th domestic bow. The unique documentary is a biopic of musician Pharrell Williams told via Lego animation. It includes interviews (Lego style) with artists its subject has collaborated with including Jay-Z, Justin Timberlake, Gwen Stefani, Snoop Dogg, Kendrick Lamar, and Busta Rhymes.

2013’s 20 Feet from Stardom from Neville (focused on background singers) took home the Oscar for Documentary Feature. Five years later, his Mister Rogers doc Won’t You Be My Neighbor? was widely expected to be nominated and ended up snubbed.

Piece by Piece is a head scratcher. Focus Features will surely campaign for it in Animated Feature and Documentary Feature. Early reviews are mostly complimentary though not gushing. I think it stands a stronger chance in Animated Feature. However, competition is real with titles such as Inside Out 2, The Wild Robot, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Flow, Moana 2, and Memoir of a Snail. The mishmash’s best chance at recognition could be one of its original songs where Pharrell has competed before with “Happy” from Despicable Me 2.

97th Academy Awards Predictions: August 20th Edition

In eights days, the Venice Film Festival will get underway followed the next day by Telluride and followed by Toronto the following week. The trio of events, as they always do, kick off a flurry of awards activity and dozens of Oscar Prediction posts on this blog. The fests in Italy, Colorado, and Canada will make the picture for the 97th Academy Awards considerably clearer.

As you peruse the titles listed below, here are just some which will debut at one or more of the festivals: Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The End, Maria, Nightbitch, Babygirl, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, The Fire Inside, Hard Truths, We Live in Time, The Wild Robot, Piece by Piece, and The Last Showgirl.

The plan is for my next update to arrive on Labor Day. By that time, quite a few of these titles will already have eyeballs on them and reviews will be written. Consider this the penultimate forecast before it gets really real.

This update comes with a pair of changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) enters my quintet with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) dropping out. Speaking of Conclave, John Lithgow is now in my Supporting Actor five over his costar Stanley Tucci.

You can peruse all the movement below as festival season is nearly upon us!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (E)

12. Saturday Night (PR: 18) (+6)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 12) (-3)

16. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (-1)

18. Maria (PR: 17) (-1)

19. The End (PR: 20) (+1)

20. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (-1)

21. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 24) (+2)

23. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

24. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Fire Inside

Here

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Marielle Heller, Nightbitch

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (E)

12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothèe Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tom Hanks, Here

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Selena Gomez, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (E)

12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Glenn Close, The Deliverance

Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (E)

15. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Raci, Sing Sing

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The End (PR: 9) (+1)

9. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dídi (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Maria (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Challengers (PR: 12) (E)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

A Different Man

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12 (E)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 13) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Caught by the Tides (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)

9. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Uprising (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kneecap

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Land (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (E)

8. Union (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anora (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Challengers (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maria (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nightbitch

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

The Piano Lesson

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Wicked (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (-1)

7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maria

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

9. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez

Twisters

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wicked (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Mufasa: The Lion King

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz

8 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

6 Nominations

Gladiator II, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

2 Nominations

A Different Man, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, Challengers, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, The Outrun, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure Box Office Prediction

Based on a popular children’s YouTube channel, Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure streams only in theaters starting August 16th. Albie Hecht, once a high ranking Nickelodeon exec, makes his directorial debut. The mix of live-action and Japanese animation stars the real-life Kaji family led by Ryan, his parents, and twin sisters.

Premiering on approximately 2100 screens, I will make a confession with this particular prediction. I was totally unaware of the YouTube show’s existence until shortly before writing this entry. Its numbers are impressive. The channel boasts around 37 million subscribers, putting it in the top 10 most subscribed in the country. There are nearly 60 billion total views on the platform.

That all could signal a healthy opening for this Adventure. I do wonder whether kids and their parents will flock to something for an hour and a half that they’re accustomed to digesting in short bursts for free. Fair warning: this projection could shift over the next few days. The theater count is about half of what Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 rolled out with and that should limit the potential.

I’ll forecast mid to high single digits with an admission that I’m flying a bit blind here.

Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million

For my Alien: Romulus prediction, click here:

Alien: Romulus Box Office Prediction

August 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Updates (08/08): Two updates for the newcomers on the eve of their premieres. Bumping It Ends with Us from $39.8 million to $43.8 million and downsizing Borderlands from $11.3 million to $8.1 million.

After the 8th best second weekend of all time at the domestic box office, Deadpool & Wolverine should rule the charts for a third frame. Yet the most serious competition for Ryan Reynolds thus far will come from his wife Blake Lively. That’s courtesy of the romantic drama It Ends with Us based on the bestseller from Colleen Hoover. Its breakout potential could cause it to over perform even beyond my forecast. We also have the video game based sci-fi action comedy Borderlands with Cate Blanchett and Kevin Hart. My detailed prediction posts on both newbies can be found here:

It Ends with Us Box Office Prediction
Borderlands Box Office Prediction

It Ends should begin with impressive numbers. The source material looks to bring in a sizable female audience who have been underserved in these summer months. My low to mid 30s call puts it easily in second and I could envision it going even higher.

I’m not expecting fireworks for Borderlands. Despite its video game series being popular, my low double digits take would place it in fourth behind the fourth go-round for Twisters.

Deadpool & Wolverine should lose about half its sophomore weekend crowd and that would give it high 40s for a third championship session.

Despicable Me 4 may only fall one slot to fifth. The percentage drop should be meager compared to M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap. His latest thriller underwhelmed (more on that below) and I foresee it plummeting around 60% to sixth place.

Here’s how I see that top 6 playing out:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $49.6 million

2. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $43.8 million

3. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

4. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Borderlands

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

6. Trap

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (August 9-11)

As mentioned, Deadpool & Wolverine managed the 8th largest weekend #2 with $96.8 million, easily clawing beyond my $84.6 million prediction. The MCU mashup has amassed $395 million in only ten days.

Twisters held tight in second with $22.8 million, blowing past my $18.1 million estimate. In three weeks, the sequel has hit $195 million with $200 million coming this week.

Mr. Shyamalan’s Trap performed in line with predecessors Old and Knock at the Cabin. In third place, the $15.4 million gross was under my $19.2 million projection. This opening is certainly on the lower end of the expected range and the C+ Cinemascore grade suggests the aforementioned large drop is coming.

Despicable Me 4 was fourth with $11.4 million compared to my $9.4 million call. The five-week total is $314 million.

Inside Out 2 rounded out the top five with $6.8 million for $626 million so far in eight weeks. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.

That’s because the family friendly and poorly reviewed Harold and the Purple Crayon couldn’t draw its crowd. With $6 million in sixth place, it fell under my $7.6 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Harold and the Purple Crayon

Based on the 1955 kids book by Crockett Johnson, Harold and the Purple Crayon looks to draw in family audiences this weekend. That could be a struggle. Directed by Carlos Sandanha (who’s been heavily involved in the Ice Age franchise), the mix of live-action and animation stars Zachary Levi, Lil Rel Howery, Zooey Deschanel, Alfred Molina, Jemaine Clement, and Tanya Reynolds.

The buzz is muted as kiddos and paying parents have spent their summer cash on Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4. The Rotten Tomatoes score for Crayon is only 36%. The sole Oscar race this would be in contention for is Visual Effects. Despite some of the negative reviews giving the special effects a pass, it is not enough for this to enter the awards mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

August 2-4 Box Office Predictions

M. Night Shyamalan’s thriller Trap looks to set a solid second place showing after the MCU behemoth that is Deadpool & Wolverine. We also have Harold and the Purple Crayon looking to draw in a family audience as August arrives at multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers right here:

Trap Box Office Prediction
Harold and the Purple Crayon Box Office Prediction

Trap could have breakout potential with its concept of a serial killer being cornered at a concert with his unknowing daughter. The brand name recognition of its director could assist. Mid 20s seems doable, but I have it in the high teens. That should be enough to give it runner-up status over the third frame of Twisters which should also be in that same forecasted range.

Harold and the Purple Crayon is a tricky one. Based on a nearly 70-year-old kids book, parents and kids may turn up since most have already viewed Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2. I suspect the so-so trailers and quiet word-of-mouth could mean just higher single digits. That might mean fifth place just under Despicable.

Now we move to Deadpool & Wolverine. The eagerly awaited Marvel mashup smashed my projection (more on that below). This should be fairly front loaded as anticipation was sky high. Similar MCU fare that reached close to the D & W level (like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness) experienced sophomore drops in the low to high 60s. This may see high 50s or low 60s which would put it in the low to mid 80s.

And with that, my take on this weekend’s high five:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $84.6 million

2. Trap

Predicted Gross: $19.2 millionm

3. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million

4. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Harold and the Purple Crayon

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (July 26-28)

Filmgoers devoured Deadpool & Wolverine, providing record setting numbers as the 34th MCU tale spawned the largest R-rated debut ever at $211.4 million (dwarfing my $176.1 million prediction). That’s also the 6th biggest domestic haul in history (between Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jurassic World) and 4th highest MCU beginning behind Avengers: Endgame, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Avengers: Infinity War. The all-time July record was additionally achieved. Furthermore it marks a personal best for Peggy, the dog who plays Mary Puppins or Dogpool. After a rough couple of years for the MCU, this gets the franchise back in phenomenal order.

The massive over performance of Wade and Logan meant Twisters spiraled more than most thought it would. It fell an understandable 57% to second at $34.9 million compared to my $42 million estimate. The two-week tally is still a potent $154 million.

Despicable Me 4 was third with $14.5 million, in line with my $15.2 million call. The animated smash has amassed $291 million in four weeks.

Speaking of animated smashes, Inside Out 2 became the #1 domestic animated title of all time with $613 million and replacing previous champion Incredibles 2. The fourth placing showing this weekend gave it another $8.6 million (I said $8.4 million). Pixar’s sequel also stands as the gold medalist for worldwide numbers in its genre.

Longlegs rounded out the top five with $6.7 million, in range with my $6.4 million projection. The horror hit has scared up $58 million in three weeks.

Finally, the geriatric comedy The Fabulous Four with Bette Midler and Susan Sarandon belly flopped in eighth with a mere $1 million. I thought it might manage $1.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…