You might not know it, but Ne Zha 2 is smashing records overseas before the A24 distributed English dub (featuring Michelle Yeoh among the voice cast) hits domestic venues this weekend. The animated Chinese fantasy is the follow-up to 2019’s original and comes from filmmaker Yang Yu, better known as Jiaozi.
The sequel was out in its home country in January before rolling out to additional territories throughout the winter and spring. With $2.2 billion in its coffers, Zha is already the highest grossing animated feature in history (surpassing Inside Out 2).
How will that translate to awards prospects? While it sports 96% on Rotten Tomatoes, the 63 Metacritic score indicates many reviews weren’t over the top in their praise. I will note that part one was China’s submission for Best International Feature Film back at the 92nd Academy Awards and it didn’t land a nom. That race seems out of reach for the 98th ceremony.
This could still manage to nab one of the five Best Animated Feature slots. Yet I’ll note that foreign competition is serious this time around with KPop Demon Hunters, Arco, and Scarlet among titles jockeying for position. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Zombie threequel 28 Years Later from Danny Boyle and Disney/Pixar’s sci-fi adventure Elio debut this weekend and look to challenge How to Train Your Dragon from a second weekend atop the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
28 Years could over perform and challenge Dragon for box office bragging rights. $40M+ isn’t out of the question, but I’m projecting low to mid 30s.
The Dragon competition could be detrimental to Elio. Pixar has had luck with recent sequels like Inside Out 2. However, original content such as Elemental has struggled out of the gate. I’m estimating Elio premieres in the mid 20s and that would probably mean third place.
If Dragon declines around 50%, low 40s is where it would land and that would mean hitting #1 again after its fiery debut (more on that below).
Lilo & Stitch should be fourth while fifth could be a photo finish between the sophomore frame of Materialists and fifth frame of Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $41.6 million
2. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
3. Elio
Predicted Gross: $24.5 million
4. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
5. Materialists
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
Box Office Predictions (June 13-15)
Friday the 13th certainly wasn’t unlucky for the live-action version of 2010’s How to Train Your Dragon. With mostly solid reviews and an A Cinemascore grade, the fourth flick in the series easily set a franchise high with $84.6 million. That’s right on track with my $84.3 million prediction and it is the fourth largest domestic kickoff of 2025. A sequel was already in the works.
Lilo & Stitch slipped to second after three weeks in 1st with $15.7 million, on pace with my $15.6 million call. The four-week tally is $366 million.
Celine Song’s Materialists with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans slightly exceeded expectations with $12 million in third. That’s right in the neighborhood of my $11.4 million estimate as the rom com hopes to play well throughout the coming weeks. The B- Cinemascore could be cause for concern.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was fourth with $10.5 million (I went lower at $9 million) for $166 million in four weeks.
At $9.7 million, John Wick spinoff Ballerina sputtered in weekend #2 with a 60% plummet for fifth. I was slightly more generous at $10.5 million.
Elio is the latest offering from Disney/Pixar and the sci-fi family adventure rolls into multiplexes June 20th. Co-directed by Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi (who helmed the studio’s Turning Red in 2022), and Adrian Molina, the voice cast includes Yonas Kibreab as the preteen title character, Zoe Saldaña, Remy Edgerly, Brad Garrett, Jameela Jamil, and Shirley Henderson.
Pixar, once as close to a sure thing as there is at the box office, has experienced ups and downs lately. Last summer’s Inside Out 2 was a smash with a $154 million premiere and $652 million domestic haul. Two summers ago, Elemental struggled out of the gate with a $29 million debut. It did eventually leg out to $154 million though that’s still fairly low for Pixar.
My hunch is that Elio starts out slow and it doesn’t help that How to Train Your Dragon will be in its second frame. It might come under what Elemental did and that means mid 20s.
This is it. After months upon months of speculation and scores of individual Oscar Prediction posts…
After 35 Case Of entries making the argument for and against every Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor nominee…
After trying to pick up clues based on what happened at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and more…
After changing and re-changing my mind right up until I type these final words…
These are my final prediction for the 97th Academy Awards airing Sunday with Conan O’Brien hosting!
We’ve had endless chatter on this blog so let’s get to it. For each race, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up and some brief commentary.
BEST PICTURE
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked
Unlike last year where Oppenheimer was the obvious pick to win, there is real suspense heading into the last category of the night. Anora took Critics Choice/DGA/PGA, Conclave nabbed BAFTA/SAG Best Ensemble while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez won their respective Drama and Musical or Comedy competitions at the Globes.
Due to its recent controversies, Pérez is out of the hunt. I honestly could see The Brutalist still emerging. I had it placed at #1 in my overall predictions for a long time during my weekly updates. That said, it’s probably third in the running. Even though one heckuva argument can be made for Conclave and recent momentum, I’m going with Anora.
PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
It is very dangerous to go against the DGA winner and that’s Sean Baker. Oscar/DGA match nearly every year. If you’re betting on this competition, probably go Baker. Yet Corbet took the Globe and BAFTA. Jon M. Chu (as an outlier) was the Critics Choice honoree. I could see Corbet still pulling this off.
PREDICTED WINNER: BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Torres (Globe winner for Actress in a Drama) isn’t impossible, but it’s a long shot. This is a real nail biter between Madison and Moore. The former was the surprise BAFTA recipient while Moore’s comeback narrative yielded her the Globe (Musical or Comedy), Critics Choice, and SAG. Had Madison taken SAG, I’d probably be predicting her. I’m sticking with Demi in what could be the closest race of the evening.
PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Chalamet certainly made this race more intriguing when he took SAG, but Brody has the Globe/Critics Choice/BAFTA combo.
PREDICTED WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
It was once thought that this could turn into a Grande v. Saldaña showdown. The latter has instead swept through the season. Saldaña appears immune to the Pérez negative publicity.
PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisvov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
It’s rare for the Supporting Actor winner not to come from a BP nominee, but Culkin has swept thus far and anyone else taking this would be a major upset at this juncture.
PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
This is not the slam dunk that I once assumed with Anora. Both A Real Pain and The Substance have picked up unexpected precursor prizes. I’m still going with my BP.
PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA
Runner-Up: A Real Pain
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
Conclave should get this though a Nickel Boys upset is feasible.
PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE
Runner-Up: Nickel Boys
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
This will be the largest test as to how much controversy truly hurt Pérez. A few weeks ago, I would’ve easily picked it. Then came bad press and I’m Still Here sneaking in the BP ten with Torres up in Best Actress. Pérez could still pull this off, but I’m saying Here.
PREDICTED WINNER: I’M STILL HERE
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Flow and Robot have both picked up precursors. So did Gromit, but that was BAFTA and they honored their own. This feels like a coin flip between Flow and Robot and my gut says the former in a squeaker.
PREDICTED WINNER: FLOW
Runner-Up: The Wild Robot
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane
The doc branch is truly unpredictable and that’s compounded by precursors being all over the place. In fact, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story picked up a couple honors and it’s not listed here. No Other Land was once thought of as a sweeper and that didn’t materialize. I’ll still say it wins with Porcelain as the most significant threat.
PREDICTED WINNER: NO OTHER LAND
Runner-Up: Porcelain War
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu
Maria and Nosferatu are possible but I’ll say the epic Brutalist.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Nosferatu
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Academy voters should ride with Wicked.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
This is a tough one between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The Brutalist is tempting and so is going with the BP pick Anora. This feels like a dart board selection and I’m landing on BAFTA honoree Conclave.
PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
All signs point to The Substance.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
I wouldn’t rule out Conclave, but The Brutalist is the pick.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
Who knows? Maybe the Academy just goes with Elton John. They could also finally honor songwriter Diane Warren after 15 nomination and zero wins. And this is another test for Pérez with Globe winner “Mi Camino”. I’ll say “Camino” in a pick ’em.
PREDICTED WINNER: “MI CAMINO” FROM EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
If The Brutalist over performs and takes BP, I could see this happening. Wicked is the safer pick.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
The musicals could surprise. Dune: Part Two is likelier.
PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
This should be Dune‘s other victory.
PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO
Runner-Up: Better Man
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening and here’s the breakdown of win totals for the pictures…
4 Wins
The Brutalist
2 Wins
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked
1 Win
Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain
The 78th edition of the BAFTAs, the U.K.’s version of the Academy Awards, occur this Sunday and it could help shape an already topsy-turvy awards season.
I’m going to give you a winner and runner-up prediction for each feature film race. I won’t spend much time pontificating as I do enough of that for the Oscars. However, it is worth noting BAFTA’s Best Film and the Academy’s Best Picture have matched just twice in the past 10 ceremonies (2020’s Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). With victories at Critics Choice/PGA/DGA last weekend, Anora has anointed itself the Oscar frontrunner. And you could argue that it makes it easier not to select Sean Baker’s pic for BAFTA’s biggest prize.
That’s what I’m doing as I believe Conclave and The Brutalist could battle for BAFTA and I’m giving the slight edge to the former. We’re talking coin flip territory. Don’t get me wrong. Anora could take this and solidify its status even more so. I just have a hunch otherwise.
BAFTA/Oscar matches improve in other major races. For Director and Supporting Actress, it’s 7 out of the past 10. For Actor and Supporting Actor, it is 8 and we have 9/10 in Actress. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice have elevated Demi Moore, Adrien Brody, Zoe Saldaña, and Kieran Culkin to favorited status. The smart money is on that quartet and I’m not projecting an upset.
Here’s my rundown and I’ll have recap up Sunday!
BEST FILM
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Predicted Winner: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Edward Berger, Conclave
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance
Predicted Winner: Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper
Predicted Winner: No Other Land
Runner-Up: Daughters
BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: I’m Still Here
BEST CASTING
Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST EDITING
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST MAKE UP & HAIR
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
Predicted Winner: The Substance
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST SOUND
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Better Man
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
Outstanding British Film
Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Kneecap
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
EE Rising Star Award
Marisa Abela, Jharrel Jerome, David Jonsson, Mikey Madison, Nabhaan Rizwan
Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison
Runner-Up: Marisa Abela
And that leaves us with these pictures generating these numbers of victories:
5 Wins
Conclave
4 Wins
The Brutalist
2 Wins
Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked
1 Win
Anora (two if you count Madison’s Rising Star victory), Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kneecap, No Other Land, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Seven of the last 10 PGA top prize winners ended up winning Best Picture at the Oscars. The 36th edition of their awards ceremony takes place Saturday and the guild also honors documentary and animated features.
Let’s walk through all 3 races with my predicted winner and a runner-up and some brief commentary.
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance, Wicked
In this wide open BP derby, this is where momentum could truly be achieved (coupled with Critics Choice this weekend). I believe Dune, Pain, September, and Substance are the only nominees with no real shot. I’ve been consistent with The Brutalist being slotted first in my BP rankings over the last several weeks. I’ll stay with that, but if it comes up short here… the narrative could change.
PREDICTED WINNER: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Flow, Inside Out 2, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Like this category at other awards shows, this should come to Flow v. Robot and I’m giving the latter an edge (unlike the Globes where I correctly called Flow).
PREDICTED WINNER: The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Flow
Outstanding Producer of Documentrary Theatrical Motion Pictures
Gaucho Gaucho, Mediha, Mountain Queen: The Summits of Lhakpa Sherpa, Porcelain War, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, We Will Dance Again
PGA often marches to their own drum with the docs. That’s true this year as Porcelain War is the only feature listed among this group that’s also up for Oscar. Therefore it might be the safer bet, but I’m going with Super/Man.
PREDICTED WINNER: Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
The Critics’ Choice Awards hold their 30th ceremony this Friday after being delayed nearly a month due to the California wildfires. The Chelsea Handler hosted affair could certainly provide clues as to where Oscar could go in various competitions.
For some context, here’s how many times the CCA victor in some high profile races have matched with the Academy in the previous decade:
Picture: 5/10
Director: 8/10
Actress: 6/10
Actor: 6/10
Supporting Actress: 8/10
Supporting Actor: 9/10
Unlike the Oscars where my speculation goes on for months and across scores of posts, this is quick and to the point. Here are my winner predictions with a runner-up named. I’ll have a recap up shortly after the show.
Best Picture
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Anora
Best Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
PREDICTED WINNER – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
PREDICTED WINNER – Mikey Madison, Anora
Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)
PREDICTED WINNER – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
PREDICTED WINNER – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
PREDICTED WINNER – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
PREDICTED WINNER – Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Conclave
Runner-Up: Nickel Boys
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
PREDICTED WINNER – Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER – The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST COMEDY
Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma
PREDICTED WINNER – A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Saturday Night
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)
PREDICTED WINNER – Izaac Wang, Dídi
Runner-Up: Elliot Heffernan, Blitz
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, September 5
PREDICTED WINNER – Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Substance
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST SCORE
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER – Challengers
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST SONG
“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
PREDICTED WINNER – “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Dune: Part Two
Runner-Up: Better Man
That means I’m projecting that these pictures win these numbers of CCAs:
4 Wins
The Brutalist
3 Wins
Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
2 Wins
A Real Pain
1 Win
Challengers, Conclave, Dídi, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Wild Robot
Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott announced nominees for the 97th Academy Awards this morning after being delayed from last week due to the California wildfires. For the ceremony airing March 2nd (hosted by Conan O’Brien), I went 89 for 105 in my picks. I’ll allow myself a pat on the back as I managed to go 20/20 in the four acting derbies and 10/10 in the screenplay races.
As predicted, Emilia Pérez led all hopefuls and it managed to nab 13 nominations (I projected it would get 11). The Brutalist and Wicked followed with 10 apiece while A Complete Unknown and Conclave generated 8.
Let’s walk through each competition with how I did and some initial thoughts, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 9/10
The surprise of the morning was Brazilian drama I’m Still Here making the cut. I had A Real Pain instead. As has been discussed frequently on the blog, this is an uncharacteristically open BP field with several winner possibilities. Readers know that I’ve had The Brutalist listed in 1st and I see no reason to change that, but Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave (to a lesser degree… we’ll get to that), Pérez, and maybe Wicked loom.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
How I Did: 4/5
DGA nominee Mangold is in the quintet over Edward Berger (Conclave). The latter has his second significant snub just two years after being left off for All Quiet on the Western Front. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t emerge as the BP victor, Corbet is the frontrunner. I think Conclave‘s BP chances took a hit with Berger missing.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
How I Did: 5/5
The narrative for Moore might be too enticing for the Academy to ignore, but I’m beginning to wonder if Torres is a bigger threat than even Madison to upset. I’ll note that all nominees are from BP contenders.
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalmaet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/5
The showdown should come down to Brody v. Chalamet.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 5/5
Like Actress, all nominees hail from BP hopefuls with Grande v. Saldaña anticipated to be the storyline.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/5
Culkin is out front, but it’s worth noting that A Real Pain missed BP. Does this open the door for Norton or Pearce?
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
How I Did: 5/5
This is where Anora is expected to shine.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
How I Did: 5/5
This is where Conclave is expected to shine.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
How I Did: 3/5
After those acting and screenplay runs, my predictions come back down to Earth. My alternate Flow and Needle are in over Kneecap and Vermiglio. Despite I’m Still Here being an unanticipated addition to BP, Pérez should receive this.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 5/5
This was probably the race that all prognosticators nailed as this was an easy quintet to project. Flow vs. The Wild Robot.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane
How I Did: 3/5
Black Box Diaries and my alternate Soundtrack are in with Daughters (a surprising snub) and Will & Harper out. The Doc branch can hard to figure out though No Other Land is racking up early precursor awards.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu
How I Did: 3/5
My alternate Pérez and Maria (in its sole nom) are in over A Complete Unknown and Conclave. This is probably going to The Brutalist.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Conclave (which was my runner-up) makes it in over Dune: Part Two. It should be noted that Dune‘s 5 nominations is certainly on the lower end of its expected range. Wicked is the frontrunner.
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
How I Did: 3/5
I went with an upset by leaving off my alternate Anora, but it’s in and so is Wicked over A Complete Unknown and Dune. This is a tricky race to figure out and, frankly, I’m not ready to designate a favorite quite yet.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5
This is where The Substance could materialize.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
It’s Wicked and Wild (my alt) over Challengers (which was blanked this morning) and Nosferatu. This could be a Brutalist prize.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
How I Did: 3/5
“Like a Bird” and Sir Elton’s ditty are part of the mix over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper and “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, which was expected to make it. The Pérez tracks are out front with “El Mal” as your Globe victor.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5
This could be a Wicked win.
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
My alt Pérez and The Wild Robot (in a category where few were predicting it) instead of Blitz and Gladiator II (which had a poor morning with only Costume Design). While Dune could take this, I question whether the subpar five noms makes it vulnerable to others.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
My alt Wicked and not Twisters represented here. The same logic from Sound applies to VE with Dune. Could Alien or Better Man pose a threat?
And there you have it, folks! It’s now time to start my Case Of posts. Readers of the blog may recall that I do individual posts for the 10 BP nominees and the 25 director and acting hopefuls where I lay out the case for and against their winning. Those will be up in short order.
Here’s how the nominations tallies played out:
13 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Wicked
8 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Conclave
6 Nominations
Anora
5 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, The Substance
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
I’m Still Here, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Flow, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus. Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Different Man, Elton John: Never Too Late, The Girl with the Needle, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
And it has come down to this. On Thursday, the Academy (barring no further delays) is expected to unveil the contenders for their 97th ceremony. For nearly a year, I’ve been speculating about who and what will be nominated. Over the past few days, I penned deep dives on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Now it’s time for the speculation to end.
Thank you, blog readers, for perusing dozens and dozens of forecast updates and individual posts on the pictures in contention.
Let’s get to it! Here are my predictions for all feature-film categories with a runner-up named in each.
BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked
Runner-Up: Sing Sing
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Runner-Up: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Daniel Craig, Queer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariane Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Vermiglio
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Moana 2
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Daughters
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Sugarcane
Will & Harper
Runner-Up: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST FILM EDITING
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
Runner-Up: The Wild Robot
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Runner-Up: Gladiator II
BEST SOUND
Blitz
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Wicked
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Twisters
Runner-Up: Wicked
That works out to a final tally of these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Conclave
7 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, Nosferatu, The Substance
3 Nominations
A Real Pain
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio
I will, of course, have reaction up Thursday with how I did and some commentary.
The nominees for the Producers Guild of America (PGA) unveiled the ten nominees for their best motion picture and five contenders for an animated offering today. When it comes to BP nominees, the PGA has a mostly impressive track record matching with the Oscar list.
Most notably, there was a 10/10 correlation last year. It was 8/10 in 2021 and 7/10 in 2020 and 2022. Let’s walk through the nominated features with how I did in my predictions and some commentary.
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 8/10
When I made my projections for this race, I stated that I believe there to be 8 safe pictures for PGA and at Oscar: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, The Substance, and Wicked. That certainly appears to hold true for the upcoming nods as the octet is up at PGA.
It’s the last two slots that are tricky to figure and the PGA just made it trickier. A Real Pain and September 5 are in over my picks of Challengers and Nickel Boys. I’ll also note that Nosferatu or Sing Sing being included here could have helped their fortunes.
This is certainly a boost for A Real Pain which has missed some key precursors lately and an unexpected slot for September 5 which has been largely absent in other lists.
Unlike last year, I don’t think we’re going to see a 10/10 match. 8 for 10 seems assured and 9 for 10 is certainly doable.
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Flow, Inside Out 2, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 4/5
Every Despicable Me predecessor made the cut at PGA, so I went with Despicable Me 4 over Wallace. It was not to be.
I’ll have winner predictions up shortly before the event which is slated for February 8th.
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