Tag: I’m Still Here

83rd Golden Globe Awards Nomination Predictions

Nominations for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards are out Monday prior to the January 11th ceremony hosted by Nikki Glaser. The highest profile Oscar precursor divides its six nominees for Picture and the lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy designations. Between the 12 hopefuls for BP in those categories in 2024, it showcased 9 of the 10 eventual Academy BP contenders (the one exception being I’m Still Here). All five Best Actor Oscar nominees could be found among the six in the Drama race for the Globes (that will not be the case this year as heavyweights like Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio are in Musical/Comedy). It was a different story for Best Actress as four of the eventual Oscar players were found in Musical/Comedy with Drama victor Fernanda Torres (from I’m Still Here) rounding out the Academy quintet. You could find the five Supporting Actor nominees at the 97th Academy Awards in the Globe six and four of the Oscar Supporting Actresses (the exception being Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown).

In other words, it is smart to include the vast majority of movies and actors that you believe will be honored by the Academy into your Globe forecast if the math works. Two observations – this is where it would be helpful for Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident to have a strong showing after a disappointing one at the Critics’ Choice Awards noms. I’m predicting that it will. This is also where Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery could rebound after being blanked by CCA. I’m predicting that it won’t.

Let’s walk through eace race with my picks and an alternate!

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Frankenstein

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – Train Dreams

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Bugonia

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Testament of Ann Lee

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – No Other Choice

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Alternate – Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Jodie Foster, A Private Life

Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Alternate – Laura Dern, Is This Thing On?

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Alternate – Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Rose Byrne, If I I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alternate – Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Brendan Fraser, Rental Family

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Alternate – Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Alternate – Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Alternate – Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Best Film Screenplay

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – The Secret Agent

Best Non-English Language Film

It Was Just an Accident

No Other Choice

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sirât

Sound of Falling

Alternate – The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Animated Feature

Arco

Elio

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Ne Zha 2

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Scarlet

Best Original Score

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – Jay Kelly

Best Original Song

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

“Drive” from F1

“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

“I Lied to You” from Sinners

“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners

“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

Alternate – “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

KPop Demon Hunters

Sinners

Superman

Weapons

Wicked: For Good

Zootopia 2

Alternate – A Minecraft Movie

That works out to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

One Battle After Another

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value, Sinners

6 Nominations

Hamnet, Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Jay Kelly, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, The Testament of Ann Lee, Weapons, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

After the Hunt, A Private Life, Arco, Blue Moon, Die, My Love, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Ne Zha 2, No Other Choice, Rental Family, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, Sound of Falling, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, Train Dreams

Oscar Predictions: The Secret Agent

I’m Still Here from Walter Salles became the first Brazilian production to take home Best International Feature Film at the 97th Academy Awards. The previous nominee before that was back in 1998 with Central Station. The nation may not have to wait long for its next at bat courtesy of The Secret Agent. The 1970s set political thriller is directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho and stars Wagner Moura Udo Kier, Gabriel Leone, and Maria Fernanda Cândido.

The Cannes premiere has garnered impressive reviews with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 86 Metacritic. Assuming Brazil submits this as their contender in IFF (and why wouldn’t they?), a spot in the eventual quintet appears likely.

Agent nods could stop there. However, with the right campaign, Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay (from its filmmaker), and even Moura’s performance in lead Actor could be on the table. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Picture

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

We are a month and change removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my takes for the four acting races and director and they can be accessed here:

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

That brings us to the biggest race of all – Best Picture. When I did my first projections for BP for the 97th ceremony back in April of 2024, I correctly named two of the eventual ten nominees in Conclave and Dune: Part Two. Three others – Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, and Wicked – were listed in Other Possibilities. Five other contenders – winner Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, I’m Still Here, and The Substance – were not yet on my radar screen.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system much like Anora, Pérez, The Substance, and The Brutalist last time around.

This premiere post predicts part two of Wicked and part 3 of Avatar among the ten hopefuls as well as last year’s Toronto Film Festival People Choice’s winner The Life of Chuck. Unlike most prognosticators, I currently have Paul Thomas Anderson’s high profile One Battle After Another on the outside looking in. And while I don’t have Sinners in my ten, the 99% RT rating is really making me wonder. I came close to including it.

My initial ranked predictions in the six major races (as well as the screenplay competitions) will be posted soon. In the meantime, here’s the first glimpse at BP.

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

After the Hunt

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

The Life of Chuck

Marty Supreme

No Other Choice

The Rivals of Amziah King

Sentimental Value

Wicked: For Good

Other Possibilities:

Alpha

Ann Lee

The Ballad of a Small Player

Bugonia

Deliver Me from Nowhere

Die, My Love

F1

Frankenstein

Highest 2 Lowest

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Materialists

Michael

One Battle After Another

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

That brings us to Best Actress. When I gave you my first picks in April of 2024, I did not name any of the eventual nominees in my projected quintet (unlike the other acting races where I got at least one or two). Only Karla Sofia Gascón was listed as an other possibility for Emilia Pérez. The eventual winner Mikey Madison (Anora) and fellow nominees Cynthia Erivo (Wicked, whose category placement was uncertain at the time), Demi Moore (The Substance), and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) had yet to reach my radar.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. This was clearly the case last year when Cannes vaulted Madison and Moore into an eventual tight competition for the victory.

This premiere post projects a repeat nod for Ms. Erivo for the second helping of Wicked in as many years and Julia Roberts back in the mix 25 years after taking this prize for Erin Brockovich.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee

Other Possibilities:

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Olivia Colman, The Roses

Jodie Foster, Vie privée

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

97th Academy Awards Reaction

After months of speculation and a whole lotta blog posts covering the various competitions, the 97th Academy Awards is now in the history books. It was a history making night for Anora maker Sean Baker. His four statues tie for the most Oscars received in a single evening. He’s in iconic company. The other individual to achieve it is Walt Disney.

Anora was the story of the night with five victories. I went 17 for 20 in my predictions and the three I missed is where I didn’t pick Anora. I correctly called it in Best Picture and Original Screenplay (wins 1 and 2 for Baker). I incorrectly selected Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) over Baker in director (win 3). Conclave was my wrong pick for Film Editing when went to Baker (win 4). Mikey Madison’s work in the title role was my third misstep as she took gold over Demi Moore (The Substance). Just as Everything Everywhere All at Once dominated the show two years back and Oppenheimer did so a year ago, it was Anora‘s night to shine.

The ceremony itself only ran about 15 minutes over with first-time host Conan O’Brien doing a solid if unspectacular job at the helm. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande kicked things off in soaring fashion with their performance of “Defying Gravity” from Wicked. That was a high point. A rather pointless 007 tribute was a bit of a head scratcher. Overall the show was fine with a heartfelt Gene Hackman tribute from Morgan Freeman being another memorable moment.

Let’s run down what I got right quickly. That includes the other three acting derbies as Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) is now a two-time Best Actor with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) completing their supporting sweeps.

Frankly, I didn’t think I’d pull off the hat trick of International Feature Film, Animated Feature, and Documentary Feature. I managed it with the respective winners I’m Still Here, Flow, and No Other Land.

Other than the aforementioned Film Editing, all other down the line contests were correct calls: Cinematography and Original Score to The Brutalist; Costume Design and Production Design for Wicked; The Substance in Makeup and Hairstyling; “El Mal” as Original Song for Emilia Pérez; Sound and Visual Effects to Dune: Part Two.

The win counts were as follows for the following pictures:

5 Wins

Anora

3 Wins

The Brutalist

2 Wins

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

1 Win

Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain, The Substance

Now it’s time to shift focus to the 98th. So keep an eye on this blog for all the speculation that fits…

97th Academy Awards FINAL Winner Predictions

This is it. After months upon months of speculation and scores of individual Oscar Prediction posts…

After 35 Case Of entries making the argument for and against every Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor nominee…

After trying to pick up clues based on what happened at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and more…

After changing and re-changing my mind right up until I type these final words…

These are my final prediction for the 97th Academy Awards airing Sunday with Conan O’Brien hosting!

We’ve had endless chatter on this blog so let’s get to it. For each race, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up and some brief commentary.

BEST PICTURE

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

Unlike last year where Oppenheimer was the obvious pick to win, there is real suspense heading into the last category of the night. Anora took Critics Choice/DGA/PGA, Conclave nabbed BAFTA/SAG Best Ensemble while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez won their respective Drama and Musical or Comedy competitions at the Globes.

Due to its recent controversies, Pérez is out of the hunt. I honestly could see The Brutalist still emerging. I had it placed at #1 in my overall predictions for a long time during my weekly updates. That said, it’s probably third in the running. Even though one heckuva argument can be made for Conclave and recent momentum, I’m going with Anora.

PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

It is very dangerous to go against the DGA winner and that’s Sean Baker. Oscar/DGA match nearly every year. If you’re betting on this competition, probably go Baker. Yet Corbet took the Globe and BAFTA. Jon M. Chu (as an outlier) was the Critics Choice honoree. I could see Corbet still pulling this off.

PREDICTED WINNER: BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

Torres (Globe winner for Actress in a Drama) isn’t impossible, but it’s a long shot. This is a real nail biter between Madison and Moore. The former was the surprise BAFTA recipient while Moore’s comeback narrative yielded her the Globe (Musical or Comedy), Critics Choice, and SAG. Had Madison taken SAG, I’d probably be predicting her. I’m sticking with Demi in what could be the closest race of the evening.

PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE

Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Chalamet certainly made this race more intriguing when he took SAG, but Brody has the Globe/Critics Choice/BAFTA combo.

PREDICTED WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

It was once thought that this could turn into a Grande v. Saldaña showdown. The latter has instead swept through the season. Saldaña appears immune to the Pérez negative publicity.

PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisvov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

It’s rare for the Supporting Actor winner not to come from a BP nominee, but Culkin has swept thus far and anyone else taking this would be a major upset at this juncture.

PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

This is not the slam dunk that I once assumed with Anora. Both A Real Pain and The Substance have picked up unexpected precursor prizes. I’m still going with my BP.

PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

Runner-Up: A Real Pain

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

Conclave should get this though a Nickel Boys upset is feasible.

PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

This will be the largest test as to how much controversy truly hurt Pérez. A few weeks ago, I would’ve easily picked it. Then came bad press and I’m Still Here sneaking in the BP ten with Torres up in Best Actress. Pérez could still pull this off, but I’m saying Here.

PREDICTED WINNER: I’M STILL HERE

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Flow and Robot have both picked up precursors. So did Gromit, but that was BAFTA and they honored their own. This feels like a coin flip between Flow and Robot and my gut says the former in a squeaker.

PREDICTED WINNER: FLOW

Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane

The doc branch is truly unpredictable and that’s compounded by precursors being all over the place. In fact, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story picked up a couple honors and it’s not listed here. No Other Land was once thought of as a sweeper and that didn’t materialize. I’ll still say it wins with Porcelain as the most significant threat.

PREDICTED WINNER: NO OTHER LAND

Runner-Up: Porcelain War

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

Maria and Nosferatu are possible but I’ll say the epic Brutalist.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Nosferatu

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Academy voters should ride with Wicked.

PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST FILM EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

This is a tough one between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The Brutalist is tempting and so is going with the BP pick Anora. This feels like a dart board selection and I’m landing on BAFTA honoree Conclave.

PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

Runner-Up: Anora

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

All signs point to The Substance.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

I wouldn’t rule out Conclave, but The Brutalist is the pick.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

Who knows? Maybe the Academy just goes with Elton John. They could also finally honor songwriter Diane Warren after 15 nomination and zero wins. And this is another test for Pérez with Globe winner “Mi Camino”. I’ll say “Camino” in a pick ’em.

PREDICTED WINNER: “MI CAMINO” FROM EMILIA PÉREZ

Runner-Up: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

If The Brutalist over performs and takes BP, I could see this happening. Wicked is the safer pick.

PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST SOUND

A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

The musicals could surprise. Dune: Part Two is likelier.

PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

This should be Dune‘s other victory.

PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

Runner-Up: Better Man

And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening and here’s the breakdown of win totals for the pictures…

4 Wins

The Brutalist

2 Wins

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

1 Win

Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain

Oscars: The Case of Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fifth and final entry in Best Actress and that’s Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here from Walter Salles. If you missed my posts covering the other Actress nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

None

The Case for Fernanda Torres:

The Brazilian performer had her stateside awards breakthrough with the acclaimed political drama. This culminated in a fairly surprising victory at the Golden Globes for Actress in a Drama, beating out stalwarts like Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and Kate Winslet (Lee).

The Case Against Fernanda Torres:

That Globe win is a bit misleading since she’s only nominee of the six to make the Academy’s cut. The other four Oscar contenders were all up for Actress in a Musical or Comedy. This includes BAFTA recipient Mikey Madison (Anora) and Globe/Critics Choice honoree Demi Moore (The Substance). Torres failed to achieve nominations at BAFTA, SAG, and Critics Choice.

The Verdict:

It’s not an impossibility that Torres could upset, but she is a distant third behind Madison and Moore.

My Case Of posts will continue with the fifth hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice…

Oscars: The Case of Cynthia Erivo in Wicked
Oscars: The Case of Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez
Oscars: The Case of Mikey Madison in Anora
Oscars: The Case of Demi Moore in The Substance

78th BAFTA Winner Predictions

The 78th edition of the BAFTAs, the U.K.’s version of the Academy Awards, occur this Sunday and it could help shape an already topsy-turvy awards season.

I’m going to give you a winner and runner-up prediction for each feature film race. I won’t spend much time pontificating as I do enough of that for the Oscars. However, it is worth noting BAFTA’s Best Film and the Academy’s Best Picture have matched just twice in the past 10 ceremonies (2020’s Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). With victories at Critics Choice/PGA/DGA last weekend, Anora has anointed itself the Oscar frontrunner. And you could argue that it makes it easier not to select Sean Baker’s pic for BAFTA’s biggest prize.

That’s what I’m doing as I believe Conclave and The Brutalist could battle for BAFTA and I’m giving the slight edge to the former. We’re talking coin flip territory. Don’t get me wrong. Anora could take this and solidify its status even more so. I just have a hunch otherwise.

BAFTA/Oscar matches improve in other major races. For Director and Supporting Actress, it’s 7 out of the past 10. For Actor and Supporting Actor, it is 8 and we have 9/10 in Actress. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice have elevated Demi Moore, Adrien Brody, Zoe Saldaña, and Kieran Culkin to favorited status. The smart money is on that quartet and I’m not projecting an upset.

Here’s my rundown and I’ll have recap up Sunday!

BEST FILM

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

Predicted Winner: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Edward Berger, Conclave

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)

Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance

Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

Predicted Winner: Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

Predicted Winner: No Other Land

Runner-Up: Daughters

BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: I’m Still Here

BEST CASTING

Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Anora

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

Predicted Winner: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST EDITING

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST MAKE UP & HAIR

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

Predicted Winner: The Substance

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST SOUND

Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Better Man

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

Outstanding British Film

Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Kneecap

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Hoard, Kneecap, Monkey Man, Santosh, Sister Midnight

Predicted Winner: Kneecap

Runner-Up: Santosh

Best Children’s & Family Film

Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

EE Rising Star Award

Marisa Abela, Jharrel Jerome, David Jonsson, Mikey Madison, Nabhaan Rizwan

Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison

Runner-Up: Marisa Abela

And that leaves us with these pictures generating these numbers of victories:

5 Wins

Conclave

4 Wins

The Brutalist

2 Wins

Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

1 Win

Anora (two if you count Madison’s Rising Star victory), Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kneecap, No Other Land, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Winner Predictions

The Critics’ Choice Awards hold their 30th ceremony this Friday after being delayed nearly a month due to the California wildfires. The Chelsea Handler hosted affair could certainly provide clues as to where Oscar could go in various competitions.

For some context, here’s how many times the CCA victor in some high profile races have matched with the Academy in the previous decade:

Picture: 5/10

Director: 8/10

Actress: 6/10

Actor: 6/10

Supporting Actress: 8/10

Supporting Actor: 9/10

Unlike the Oscars where my speculation goes on for months and across scores of posts, this is quick and to the point. Here are my winner predictions with a runner-up named. I’ll have a recap up shortly after the show.

Best Picture

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Anora

Best Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

PREDICTED WINNER – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

PREDICTED WINNER – Mikey Madison, Anora

Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)

PREDICTED WINNER – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

PREDICTED WINNER – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

PREDICTED WINNER – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Conclave

Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

PREDICTED WINNER – Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

PREDICTED WINNER – The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST COMEDY

Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

PREDICTED WINNER – A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)

PREDICTED WINNER – Izaac Wang, Dídi

Runner-Up: Elliot Heffernan, Blitz

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, September 5

PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Substance

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST SCORE

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

PREDICTED WINNER – Challengers

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST SONG

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

PREDICTED WINNER – “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Dune: Part Two

Runner-Up: Better Man

That means I’m projecting that these pictures win these numbers of CCAs:

4 Wins

The Brutalist

3 Wins

Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

2 Wins

A Real Pain

1 Win

Challengers, Conclave, Dídi, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Wild Robot

Oscars: The Case of I’m Still Here

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered six of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is I’m Still Here from Walter Salles.

The Case for I’m Still Here:

The Brazilian drama has been a critics favorite ever since it debuted in Venice where it won the Best Screenplay prize. The love is evidenced by the 95% Rotten Tomatoes score coupled with its 99% Audience Score on that site. It is a threat to win its other two nominations for International Feature Film and Actress (Fernanda Torres) based on the growing momentum.

The Case Against I’m Still Here:

It was unquestionably the surprise nominee on nomination morning that few (including me) predicted. Here missed the BP cut with precursors including the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. While it was up for Foreign Film at the Globes, it lost to Emilia Pérez. This could just as easily go for 0 for 3 on Oscar night and I’d say it’s the frontrunner in none of its competitions. The 3 nominations is the second lowest of the 10 hopefuls (ahead of 2 for Nickel Boys). Salles hasn’t been nominated anywhere for his direction and that rarely bodes well for BP viability.

The Verdict:

While I’m Still Here is generating increased visibility, I’d say International Feature Film and not Best Picture is where it could emerge over Pérez (which has faced unwanted headlines in recent days due to Karla Sofia Gascón’s past social media history).

My Case Of posts will continue with Nickel Boys…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Conclave
Oscars – The Case of Dune: Part Two
Oscars: The Case of Emilia Pérez