After massive box office success with the two A Quiet Place horror pics, John Krasinski is in family mode when IF debuts Friday. Combining live-action with animation, Ryan Reynolds headlines the human cast with a ginormous list of familiar faces voicing imaginary friends from Steve Carell to Emily Blunt to George Clooney to Matt Damon and Bradley Cooper and many more.
The review embargo is up and reaction is mixed. With a 59% RT score, any awards prospects are shaky. The one exception could be Visual Effects, but I don’t even think it’s guaranteed to make the shortlist (let alone the final five). In other words, putting this anywhere in your Academy forecast represents a big… well, you know. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
John Krasinski’s fantastical family flick IF looks to top the box office charts while horror prequel The Strangers: Chapter 1 and the Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
IF is a tricky one to call. It has star power in the form of Ryan Reynolds and plenty of familiar faces voicing the various imaginary friends in the cast. On the other hand, this is original IP and it could struggle to break out with more franchise friendly titles for the fam coming our way this season (The Garfield Movie, Inside Out 2, Despicable Me 4). I’m giving it a mid to high 30s start as it will hope to leg out well over the next several weeks.
The runner-up spot should go to current champ Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (barring a massive underperformance from IF). The tenth feature overall in the long-running series premiered at highest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). Its sophomore dip could be substantial. While 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes fell only 50%, follow-up War for the Planet of the Apes in 2017 tumbled 63%. It didn’t help that War faced direct competition from Dunkirk in its first outing. Then there’s the surprising B Cinemascore grade for Kingdom and that’s low for a blockbuster. Word-of-mouth could be an issue. I have it sliding in the high 50s or low 60s for a low to mid 20s second frame.
The Strangers: Chapter 1 could face the same genre hurdles that other recent titles have including Abigail and The First Omen. My estimate just north of $10 million puts it in third for a muted third place beginning.
The Fall Guy should continue its underwhelming run in fourth with a low to mid 40s ease in weekend #3.
With mostly poor reviews, a mid single digits start for Back to Black would have it rounding out the high five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. IF
Predicted Gross: $38.3 million
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $23.6 million
3. The Strangers: Chapter 1
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
4. The Fall Guy
Predicted Gross: $8 million
5. Back to Black
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
Box Office Results (May 10-12)
It was a wonderful weekend for 20th Century Studios as Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes proved the franchise is in good working order. Arriving seven years after predecessor War, it topped that film’s gross with $58.4 million. That’s third in the series only to 2014’s Dawn and Tim Burton’s 2001 re-imagining and ahead of my $55.2 million call.
The Fall Guy fell to second with $13.6 million, on target with my $13.2 million prediction. The total sits at a ho-hum $49 million after ten days as the summer’s first flop will likely not reach nine figures domestically.
Challengers was third with $4.3 million (I said $4.7 million) as its three-week tally is $37 million.
I did not correctly identify the fourth and fifth place finishers. Why? Well… the re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace was down a gargantuan 84% to $1.4 million (to bring its take to $486 million since 1999). I was far more generous and thought it would do $4 million. Oops.
That’s nothing compared to my overestimate of the Tyler Perry filmography spoof Not Another Church Movie. I had it in third place with $4.9 million. Instead it was 13th with a whopping…. $391k. Apparently filmgoers will go to Perry’s pics and do not want to see them made fun of.
Fourth place went to Tarot in its second go-round with $3.4 million. That’s actually a fine hold for horror as it has reached $11.9 million.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rounded out the top five with $2.6 million to bring its numbers to $191 million after seven weeks.
Paramount is banking on John Krasinski’s latest directorial project to make lots of noise at multiplexes when IF debuts on May 17th. Mixing live-action with animation, the comedy’s real-life cast consists of Ryan Reynolds, Cailey Fleming, Fiona Shaw, Alan Kim, Liza Colón-Zayas, Bobby Moynihan, and Krasinski himself. The sprawling list of performers providing voiceover work includes the filmmaker’s Office costar Steve Carell, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Krasinski’s spouse Emily Blunt, the late Louis Gossett Jr., Matt Damon, Maya Rudolph, Jon Stewart, Sam Rockwell, Sebastian Maniscalco, Christopher Meloni, Richard Jenkins, Awkwafina, Blake Lively, George Clooney, Matthew Rhys, Bradley Cooper, Amy Schumer, Keegan-Michael Key, and Vince Vaughn.
Handling screenplay duties as well, this is a far cry from the director’s A Quiet Place pics. The summer’s first feature geared toward families, this should capitalize on the absence of genre material in the marketplace (it’s been two months since Kung Fu Panda 4). The title, by the way, stands for Imaginary Friend.
The chance for this to rise above expectations seems real. I think it could make $50 million for starters. It could also start out slowly and hope for decent legs in subsequent weekends. A worst case scenario could be $25-30 million. I’m giving it $35-40 million out of the gate.
IF opening weekend prediction: $38.3 million
For my The Strangers: Chapter 1 prediction, click here:
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