Oscar Predictions: Deep Cover

Deep Cover is available to stream on Amazon Prime Video today with Tom Kingsley directing and Jurassic World maker Colin Trevorrow among four credited with the script. The co-screenwriter’s dino lead Bryce Dallas Howard stars alongside Orlando Bloom, Nick Mohammed, Paddy Considine, Ian McShane, and Sean Bean.

This is not a remake of the 1992 Laurence Fishburne/Jeff Goldblum crime thriller that featured a banger of a title song from Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg. Instead this British high concept action comedy is receiving decent marks with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and a more down-to-earth 68 Metacritic. It won’t get near the Academy’s radar. I do wonder if it could get a push for BAFTA’s Best British Film. That might be a long shot, but not an impossibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Ballerina

Ana de Armas headlines the John Wick franchise spinoff Ballerina this weekend with Keanu Reeves appearing in the action thriller from director Len Wiseman. Other costars include Gabriel Byrne, Catalinia Sandino Moreno, Norman Reedus, and Wick fixtures Anjelica Huston, Ian McShane, and the late Lance Reddick.

The Academy recently announced a new Achievement in Stunt Design category. However, it won’t begin until the 100th ceremony in 2028. That’s bad news for Ballerina and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning in 2025. Both the Wick and Impossible series likely would’ve racked up multiple noms had that race existed over the past decade plus.

Four previous Wick pics couldn’t get into categories like Sound or Visual Effects and I doubt Ballerina will. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…

Ballerina Box Office Prediction

Ballerina looks to spin box office gold for Lionsgate when it debuts on June 6th. A spinoff of the John Wick franchise, Ana de Armas joins the world of assassins in this cinematic universe with Len Wiseman directing. Gabriel Byrne, Catalina Sandino Moreno, and Norman Reedus provide support. Lucky for the studio’s marketing department, so do several cast members of Wick installments including Anjelica Huston, Ian McShane, Lance Reddick (in his final feature role), and Mr. Wick himself Keanu Reeves.

Originally slated for last summer, the project was pushed back a full year. It takes place between the events of John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum and John Wick: Chapter 4. Recent TV ads have highlighted Keanu’s involvement with the title styled as From the World of John Wick: Ballerina.

Parabellum debuted to $56 million in 2019 while 2023’s fourth installment kicked off with $73 million, Ballerina is not expected to reach those heights and its start should be more in line with John Wick: Chapter Two‘s $30 million premiere in 2017. $40 million is possible, but I’ll say mid 30s.

Ballerina opening weekend prediction: $36.8 million

For my The Phoenician Scheme prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Kung Fu Panda 4

While animated titles dealing with spiders or herons are the likeliest Best Animated Feature Oscar winner this Sunday, Kung Fu Panda 4 hopes to take the box office this weekend. DreamWorks Animation’s martial arts comedy comes from director Mike Mitchell with Jack Black reprising his role as Po. Dustin Hoffman, Awkwafina, Viola Davis, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, Ian McShane, Ke Huy Quan, Lori Tan Chinn, and Ronny Chieng also provide voiceover work.

The first pair of Panda pics in 2008 and 2011 both received Animated Feature nods from the Academy, losing respectively to Wall-E and Rango. The third edition in 2016 did not manage to make the quintet despite matching the original’s 87% RT score (the second one hit 81%). No. 4 currently sits at 78%. If competition is weak, perhaps this series could return to contention. I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Kung Fu Panda 4 Box Office Prediction

DreamWorks Animation hopes to reverse diminishing returns for its comedic martial arts franchise when Kung Fu Panda 4 arrives in theaters March 8th. Mike Mitchell, maker of such genre fare including Shrek Forever After and Trolls, directs. Jack Black is back voicing the title character alongside returnees Dustin Hoffman, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, and Ian McShane. Newcomers include Awkwafina, Ke Huy Quan, Ronny Chieng, Lori Tan Chinn, and Viola Davis.

In the summer of 2008, the first Panda sighting kicked off with $60 million and an eventual $215 million domestic haul. Three summers later, the second edition also made $60 million. However, that was with an extra day of grosses due to the Memorial Day holiday. Its lesser total was $165 million. By January 2016, Kung Fu Panda 3 premiered at $41 million and then $143 million overall.

The eight year layoff is easily the longest between entries. Absence could make the heart grow fonder or at least enough to match its predecessor’s beginning. Yet I suspect mid to high 30s is more likely.

Kung Fu Panda 4 opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million

For my Imaginary prediction, click here:

For my Cabrini prediction, click here:

John Wick: Chapter 4 Review

No franchise has seen more actors submit headshots to get their heads shot than this one. Nearly a decade has passed since the puppy of John Wick (Keanu Reeves) was offed by Russian mobsters in the 2014 original. Much less time has expired onscreen as we arrive at Chapter 4. In the features that have followed, the world building continues to grow as the squib games ramp up.

As a quick reminder, Wick was a legendary hitman mourning his wife’s death from natural causes in 2014. When the condemned criminals caused the demise of his very good boy, it triggered a thirst for revenge still not quenched. The storyline also veered into unexpected and violently enjoyable directions. This includes The Continental, stylish hotels across the globe that cater to nefarious types. The Wick world also established its own set of rules for how these characters behave. It’s all set in a cinematic universe where law enforcement is on permanent break and an all-powerful syndicate The High Table calls the shots.

Ultimately it’s an excuse for long take battles where Keanu and his friends and enemies (and in some cases frenemies) find fresh ways to shoot indistinguishable baddies in the head. This can be monotonous but director Chad Stahelski and his team of technicians and stunt persons more often impress with their inventive set-ups.

In 2019’s Chapter 3 – Parabellum, Wick was left for dead by the High Table and rescued by underground crime lord the Bowery King (Laurence Fishburne, still having a ball). Our title character is in heavy revenge mode as the travelogue takes him to Morocco on horseback and then New York City, Japan, and Berlin. His back is always against the wall as the reward for his killing is $20 million and increasing.

The main player tasked with extinguishing Wick is Caine (Donnie Yen), a blind former Table assassin reluctantly returning to employment. His lack of sight causes creative ways for him to accomplish goals. Every time a bell rings around him, a henchman gets his wings (you’ll see). His hirer is the arrogant and ruthless Marquis (Bill Skarsgård), making for a delightfully smarmy addition. Skarsgård nailed the role of Pennywise with his demented sideways glances in the It double feature. Now he has another memorable villainous turn. Ian McShane’s Continental manager Winston (last seen putting a bullet into Wick) is more supportive this time. Shamier Anderson turns up as a skilled bounty hunter waiting for the price to be right before taking Wick out. In keeping with the franchise’s canine connection, he has a dedicated pooch who enacts cruelty to would-be tormentors. The dog’s presence also humorously reveals that even hotels for the underworld must adopt a policy for emotional support animals.

I have a tough time ranking these movies over the others. It sort of feels like one long movie. This one feels a bit longer because it is. Chapter 4 probably doesn’t need to clock in at three hours, but the action sequences continue to wow and this edition has the best adversary. As long as they continue to stay this solid and stylish, my policy will be to support them.

*** (out of four)

John Wick: Chapter 4 Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (03/20): Wick appears poised for a massive over performance. I am revising from projection from $69.1M to $85.5M.

Each Wick pic has burned brighter at the box office than the previous entry and the trend looks to continue as John Wick: Chapter 4 is unleashed on March 24th. Keanu Reeves is back in the title role with Chad Stahelski returning to direct. The supporting players are a mix of familiar franchise faces and newcomers including Donnie Yen, Bill Skarsgård, Hiroyuki Sanada, Shamier Anderson, Lance Reddick, Rino Sawayama, Ian McShane, and Laurence Fishburne.

In the fall of 2014, the first Wick was a modest success when it debuted with $14 million and $43 million domestic overall. Those numbers seem meager now, but they were better than anticipated and more fans were gained when it hit the home viewing circuit. The 2017 sequel took in $30 million out of the gate with $92 million total. In 2019, Chapter 3 – Parabellum soared to a $56 million premiere with $171 million in the stateside bank.

At nearly three hours long, Chapter 4 is generating some of the strongest reviews of the series. With 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, critics are particularly praising the choreography of its wild action sequences. That should get plenty of genre fans out to the multiplexes. Like Creed III, look for this to score a series high opening with room to spare. I’m thinking mid 60s to possibly $70 million is achievable.

John Wick: Chapter 4 opening weekend prediction: $85.5 million (REVISED NUMBER)

Oscar Predictions – John Wick: Chapter 4

The Best Picture lineup for the just aired Academy Awards was 20% sequel with Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water in contention. We also had Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery up in key contests. So is it crazy to think John Wick: Chapter 4 could find its way into the Oscar conversation a little less than a year from now? Yeah, it might be.

Or maybe not. The fourth heaping of ultra-violence starring Keanu Reeves and directed by Chad Stahelski stands at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes prior to its March 24th domestic bow. That exactly matches the scores of predecessors Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 – Parabellum and exceeds the original’s 86%.

Yet many of the reviews are calling #4 the best of the wild bunch. The nearly three hour opus is being specifically singled out for its production design and cinematography. I could certainly see Film Twitter mounting a campaign for this acclaimed franchise to finally get some love from the tech branches. It’s unlikely to occur, but not impossible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: My Father’s Dragon

It could be time to admit that I’ve slept on My Father’s Dragon when it comes to Oscar consideration. Based on the 1948 children’s book by Ruth Stiles Gannett, the 2-D fantasy makes its way to Netflix on November 11th. It had its unveiling at the London Film Festival. Dragon is the fifth animated feature from Cartoon Saloon and their track record is, shall we say, fire.

The Irish outlet is 4 for 4 when it comes to getting their pics nominated for Best Animated Feature: 2010’s The Secret of Kells, 2014’s Song of the Sea, The Breadwinner from 2017, and 2020’s Wolfwalkers. Despite their success rate getting their product in the final quintet, they’ve yet to win.

Dragon is directed by Nora Twomey, who co-directed Kells and solo helmed The Breadwinner. The sprawling voice cast includes Jacob Tremblay, Gaten Matarazzo, Golshifteh Farahani, Jackie Earle Haley, Whoopi Goldberg, Dianne Wiest, Rita Moreno, Chris O’Dowd, Judy Greer, Alan Cumming, Yara Shahidi, Mary Kay Place, Leighton Meester, and Ian McShane.

Reviews are just beginning to trickle out of London and so far so good. The initial buzz indicates this should be a contender. Like its earlier efforts, I’d say it’s a viable film for nomination and not a victory. My last estimates had it ranked seventh… pretty low for a production company with the aforementioned history.

Yet there could be roadblocks on the Saloon’s road to five in a row. The main one is internal competition from Netflix itself. Most prognosticators (myself included) have Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio from the streamer listed in first place. Even though that’s sight unseen, the pedigree would suggest it’ll be Netflix’s biggest push for the gold statue. Others that the company could be focused on include this summer’s acclaimed The Sea Beast and Wendell and Wild from Jordan Peele, which debuts later this month and nabbed positive feedback at the Toronto Film Festival.

That’s four legit contenders from Netflix and Disney (for one) will have something to say about them achieving four nominations (they won’t). Something’s gotta give and we’ll see how the next few weeks play out to determine which movies from the quartet don’t make the dance. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum Movie Review

John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum brings us back into the franchise where the forecast is usually stylishly rainy and dripping with violence. There’s a 100% chance of Keanu Reeves finding creative ways to kill people. Our third iteration does what you expect from a sequel. It increases the action so Mr. Wick fights more. His poor dog met an unfortunate end in Chapter 1 that kicked all of this off. In Parabellum, dogs don’t die. They fight too.

Just as part 2 picked up immediately after its predecessor, this does as well. As you’ll recall, our title character has been excommunicated by the High Table, the organization that governs the unlimited supply of assassins that populate New York City and beyond. He’s a marked man with a $14 million bounty on his head and a dwindling supply of markers causing people to help him. Those individuals include Oscar winning women like Halle Berry and Anjelica Huston.

Wick can no longer have a safe space in the Continental Hotel, managed by Winston (Ian McShane) and his trusty concierge (Lance Reddick). That place provided many highlights in the first two pictures, but our man branches out here. After an excursion to Rome in #2, Wick’s passport gets him to Casablanca here. That’s where he teams with Berry and does a Clark Griswold style desert journey that does give him a respite from the cool looking rain.

Calling the shots is the Adjudicator (an effective Asia Kate Dillon). She’s in charge of punishing the folks who’ve helped Wick out in the past. This includes Winston and the returning Bowery King (Laurence Fishburne, still having a ball). Our head henchman who wants to collect the Wick murder money is Zero (Mark Dacascos) and his character is quite fun. He may have a task to complete, but he’s also a total fanboy of the legend he’s hunting. Their interplay is an added bonus.

Parabellum is ultimately about how well the action scenes work. Director Chad Stahelski and Reeves once again dig deep into their bag of martial arts inspired tricks. And a decent sized portion of the fight sequences are downright thrilling. Perhaps this series will eventually run of gas and the choreography of Reeves in sadistic motion delivering headshots won’t be as satisfying. Not yet.

*** (out of four)