Few actors had a better movie year as Hugh Jackman’s 2017 with two smash hits – Logan and TheGreatestShowman. Yet despite the acclaim, Oscar didn’t honor him. In fact, his sole nod came five years prior in LesMiserables. Last year’s TheFrontRunner looked like awards bait, but it fizzled quickly.
Now we have BadEducation for possible consideration as it screened in Toronto. The comedic drama tells the true tale of a beloved New York school superintendent cheating the system. And Variety has called it Jackman’s best performance to date. Other reviews also praise his work in this effort from director Cory Finley. This is his sophomore film following 2017’s well regarded Thoroughbreds. Costars include Allison Janney (who did win in 2017 for I, Tonya), Geraldine Viswanathan, Ray Romano, and Alex Woolf.
I say possible consideration because Education has yet to land a distributor. However, that shouldn’t be a problem. The real question is whether this gets released in 2019. If so, I would expect a campaign to be mounted for its lead actor. And as I’ve said repeatedly in the past few festival days, that race is looking incredibly competitive. Unlike TheFrontRunner, I would anticipate some critics vying for his inclusion. It could be a long shot, but he’s in the large mix. A Golden Globe nod in Musical/Comedy might be more reachable. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
At this year’s AFI Film Festival, there were two high-profile Oscar contenders screening for the first time. A week ago, it was On the Basis of Sex and I believe it lessened its chances at nominations. Last night, it was Mary Queen of Scots and we could have a potential contender on our hands.
The Josie Rourke directed historical drama casts Saoirse Ronan (nominated in 2015 and 2017 in Actress for Brooklyn and Lady Bird) in the title role with Margot Robbie (nominated last year for I, Tonya) as Queen Elizabeth I.
Early reviews suggest it’s a winner and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The critical notices don’t automatically vault it into Best Picture, though I’d say its chances have improved. It may find itself in direct competition for votes with another female led historical film The Favourite, which also has reviews on its side. Scots is expected to play in down the line races like Costume Design, Production Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling.
The biggest question mark was the reaction to Ronan and Robbie’s work. Buzz from AFI suggests they could both find themselves in the mix for Actress and Supporting Actress, respectively.
Bottom line: Mary has a brighter outlook for Academy attention based on last night. Expect this to appear on some category lists next Thursday when I update my predictions. My Oscar watch posts will continue…
Today begins a new blog series where I’m looking back at five of the major Oscar categories from 1990 to the present: the four acting races and Best Picture. This is essentially the time period where I’ve closely watched and analyzed. My charge? Picking the three largest upsets in each said category and the three least surprising winners… a film or performer where it truly would have been a shock if they didn’t emerge victorious.
We begin with Best Supporting Actress and this is one in which there have been some genuine upsets over the past quarter century plus. Unlike some other races we’ll get to later, it was not a challenge to pick three unexpected winners.
The other agenda item here is I’m picking my personal selections for strongest and weakest overall field among the five nominees in the acting derby’s and five-ten for Best Picture.
For starters, here’s the list of women that won gold statues in the supporting race from 1990 to now:
1990 – Whoopi Goldberg, Ghost
1991 – Mercedes Ruehl, TheFisherKing
1992 – Marisa Tomei, MyCousinVinny
1993 – Anna Paquin, ThePiano
1994 – Dianne Wiest, BulletsOverBroadway
1995 – Mira Sorvino, MightyAphrodite
1996 – Juliette Binoche, TheEnglishPatient
1997 – Kim Basinger, L.A. Confidential
1998 – Judi Dench, ShakespeareinLove
1999 – Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted
2000 – Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock
2001 – Jennifer Connelly, ABeautifulMind
2002 – Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
2003 – Renee Zellweger, ColdMountain
2004 – Cate Blanchett, TheAviator
2005 – Rachel Weisz, TheConstantGardner
2006 – Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
2007 – Tilda Swinton, MichaelClayton
2008 – Penelope Cruz, VickyChristinaBarcelona
2009 – Mo’Nique, Precious
2010 – Melissa Leo, TheFighter
2011 – Octavia Spencer, TheHelp
2012 – Anne Hathaway, LesMiserables
2013 – Lupita Nyong’o, 12YearsaSlave
2014 – Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2015 – Alicia Vikander, TheDanishGirl
2016 – Viola Davis, Fences
2017 – Allison Janney, I, Tonya
I’ll begin with the least surprising winners. Truthfully, there are plenty of selections (and will be in each race) to pick from here. It’s normal procedure for the front runner to actually win. Here’s three that did just that:
3. Dianne Wiest, BulletsOverBroadway
Of the 28 recipients to choose from, note that 3 of them were under the direction of Woody Allen. None were surprise winners. That’s most evident with Wiest’s showcase work as an aging diva here. Her win here came just eight years following her Oscar winning role in another Allen pic, HannahandHerSisters.
2. Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Fans of the Broadway play this is based upon knew Ms. Hudson could have a legitimate breakthrough part here. She nailed it and her win was never in much doubt.
1. Anne Hathaway, LesMiserables
Similar to Hudson’s victory, Hathaway’s casting as Fantine and her “I Dreamed a Dream” dramatic solo made her the odds-on favorite from the moment the project was announced. That never changed.
Now we get to the upsets and there were four to choose from. I could easily include Anna Paquin in ThePiano, who became the second youngest winner when she beat out favorite Winona Ryder for TheAgeofInnocence. Here’s 3 I rank as even more surprising:
3. Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock
Harden had won no significant precursors and Kate Hudson was expected to have her name called for AlmostFamous. She wasn’t even nominated for a Golden Globe or SAG.
2. Juliette Binoche, TheEnglishPatient
While the film itself was the anticipated winner for Picture (which it did), the Oscars were expected to select the legendary Lauren Bacall for her work in Barbra Streisand’s TheMirrorHasTwoFaces. Yet it was Binoche’s performance that was unexpectedly honored.
1. Marisa Tomei, MyCousinVinny
For starters, comedic roles are rarely nominated and wins are even more unheard of. Tomei was a newcomer in a picture that wasn’t a factor in any other category. Her competition was a list of venerable actresses: Judy Davis (HusbandsandWives), Joan Plowright (EnchantedApril), Vanessa Redgrave (HowardsEnd), and Miranda Richardson (Damages). The victory here was so shocking that conspiracy theories emerged that presenter Jack Palance had accidentally read the wrong name. That’s been debunked, but Tomei’s trip to the stage remains one of Oscar’s largest jaw droppers.
As for the fields, I’m going with 1991 for the weakest link in the chain. I probably would have given the award to Juliette Lewis in CapeFear. However, the group was not particularly strong:
Mercedes Ruehl, TheFisherKing (Winner)
Diane Ladd, RamblingRose
Juliette Lewis, CapeFear
Kate Nelligan, ThePrinceofTides
Jessica Tandy, FriedGreenTomatoes
For the strongest field overall, I went with 2004 when Cate Blanchett won for her portrayal of Katherine Hepburn in Martin Scorsese’s TheAviator. The other nominees:
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Sophie Okonedo, HotelRwanda
Natalie Portman, Closer
And there you have it! I’ll have Supporting Actor up soon…
It’s only mid-October, but the first significant precursor of awards season rolled out nominations today in the form of the Gotham Awards. If you’re not familiar, the Gothams honor independent film in a limited number of categories.
While not as prolific as the Golden Globes or SAG nominations, there has been a correlation with movies and performers nominated here getting Oscar attention. Let’s take a look at the past five Gotham awards nominees and how they matched up with the Academy:
In 2013, 12 Years a Slave was nominated for Best Feature and went on to win the Oscar. In the Best Actor race, eventual Academy winner Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) was victorious here and Chiwetel Ejiofor (Slave) also was nominated for both. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) was nominated here and went on to win the gold statue. It’s worth noting that the Gothams do not have supporting acting categories (we’ll get to that in a minute).
In 2014, three movies that got Best Picture nods were honored here: Birdman (Oscar winner), Boyhood, and The Grand Budapest Hotel. In the acting races, Michael Keaton (Birdman) and Oscar/Gotham winner Julianne Moore (Still Alice) were included.
For 2015, no Best Actor nominees for the Gothams correlated to Oscars. However, there were actress match-ups with Oscar winner Brie Larson (Room) and Cate Blanchett (Carol). Also – the Gotham and Oscar Best Picture winners were the same – Spotlight.
That happened once again in 2016 as Moonlight won the Oscar and the Gotham. Manchester by the Sea was also nominated for both. Casey Affleck’s work in that film won Best Actor at both ceremonies. For Actress, Natalie Portman as Jackie got double nods.
Last year, two Gotham Film nominees got Best Picture recognition: Call Me by Your Name and Get Out. In Actor, it was Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out as a double recipient. In Actress, same goes for Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) and Margot Robbie (I, Tonya). And coming back to the fact that there’s no supporting races, Willem Dafoe received an Actor nomination at the Gothams for The Florida Project while being recognized for Supporting Actor at the Oscars.
So, as you can see, there’s usually some overlap for the two ceremonies. And that brings us to today’s nominees and how I think that overlap will occur this year:
In the Gotham Best Feature race, the nominees are:
The Favourite
First Reformed
If Beale Street Could Talk
Madeline’s Madeline
The River
The average number of Gotham/Oscar film nominees lately has been two and that likely holds true here with The Favourite and If Beale Street Could Talk. The other three are highly unlikely to get Academy recognition.
In the Best Actor race, the nominees are:
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
LaKeith Stanfield, Sorry to Bother You
Grant is probably this year’s Willem Dafoe and will be recognized by the Academy in Supporting Actor. Adam Driver falls in the same category, but is more of a long shot. Stanfield is out of the running for Actor at the Oscars, while Foster and Hawke remain possibilities. That said – like 2015 – this could well be a year where there’s no matches.
That is not the case with Actress and the nominees are:
Glenn Close, The Wife
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Kathryn Hahn, Private Life
Regina Hall, Support the Girls
Michelle Pfeiffer, Where is Kyra?
Collette is a possible nominee, but it’s Close that seems a near lock for Oscar attention and a possible win. The others? Not so much.
Finally, a Special Jury prize was initiated that honors the three actresses from The Favourite. That would be Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz and all three could find themselves in the mix at Oscar time. The Gothams did the same jury designation for 2014’s Foxcatcher and 2015’s Spotlight.
So there you have it! My take on how the Gotham Awards will relate to the biggest awards show of all…
Well, the 90th Annual Academy Awards have come and – after 220 minutes of ceremony – gone. This is my annual wrap up of the show and (of course most importantly) how I did with my predictions!
In short, not too shabby…
I went 19/21 on my predictions – missing out on just Best Original Song (“Remember Me” from Coco won over my upset pick “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall and A Fantastic Woman took Foreign Film over The Insult). Neither were a surprise.
In fact, the night was rather predictable as far as winners. The Shape of Water was the big victor, taking Picture, Director (Guillermo del Toro), Production Design, and Original Score. The acting winners (Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour, Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Allison Janney in I, Tonya) were the wise ones to have in the pool. Get Out got its recognition via Jordan Peele’s Original Screenplay. Legends like James Ivory (for his Call Me by Your Name Adapted Screenplay) and cinematographer Roger Deakins (for his Blade Runner 2049 work) finally won gold statues.
Some other quick observations:
Jimmy Kimmel, as he was last year, is a solid host for the show. I would have no problem with him essentially being the new Billy Crystal and hosting every year or every other year. That said, it sure would be interesting to see what a Tiffany Haddish or Dave Chappelle could do with it.
That 90 years in movies Oscar montage could have gone on another half hour and I would have been fine with it.
I hope the Phantom Thread costume designer is enjoying his jet ski today.
And, of course, no Best Picture screw up! Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway can relax today.
And there you have it, folks! That’s my shape of Oscar 2017.
Well… here we are. After months of prognosticating and speculating, the 90th Annual Academy Awards is upon us this Sunday. This post serves as my final predictions for what and who will emerge victorious in five days.
I am listing my predicted winner as well as my runner-up in case I’m not perfect… and I certainly won’t be. I’ll have reaction up Sunday night as to how I did and my general thoughts on the ceremony.
Until then – these are my FINAL Oscar Winner predictions:
Best Picture
Nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
PREDICTED WINNER: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Best Actor
Nominees:
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
PREDICTED WINNER: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
RUNNER-UP: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Best Actress
Nominees:
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
PREDICTED WINNER: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
RUNNER-UP: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
RUNNER-UP: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
RUNNER-UP: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
PREDICTED WINTER: Call Me by Your Name
RUNNER-UP: Molly’s Game
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Get Out
RUNNER-UP: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
PREDICTED WINNER: Coco
RUNNER-UP: Loving Vincent
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
PREDICTED WINNER: The Insult
RUNNER-UP: A Fantastic Woman
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
PREDICTED WINNER: Icarus
RUNNER-UP: Last Men in Aleppo
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Baby Driver
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: Blade Runner 2049
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
PREDICTED WINNER: Phantom Thread
RUNNER-UP: The Shape of Water
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder
PREDICTED WINNER: Darkest Hour
RUNNER-UP: Wonder
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
PREDICTED WINNER: Blade Runner 2049
RUNNER-UP: War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Editing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Blade Runner 2049
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Baby Driver
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Mighty River” from Mudbound
“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me” from Coco
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
PREDICTED WINNER: “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
RUNNER-UP: “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
And that leaves the following breakdown of number of wins for each picture:
4 Wins
The Shape of Water
3 Wins
Dunkirk
2 Wins
Darkest Hour, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Blade Runner 2049
1 Win
I, Tonya, Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, Coco, The Insult, Icarus, Phantom Thread, Marshall
The 2017 Oscar nominations came out yesterday with yours truly battling a so so 71%. Naturally we now move to predicted winners in the categories. This will not be my last time predicting as I’ll make final winner estimates on the eve of the ceremony.
For now, here’s who and what I have taking home the prized golden statue:
Best Picture
The Shape of Water
Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Best Actor
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actress
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name
Best Original Screenplay
Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature
Coco
Best Foreign Language Film
The Insult
Best Documentary Feature
Faces Places
Best Editing
Dunkirk
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Best Production Design
The Shape of Water
Best Costume Design
Phantom Thread
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Best Visual Effects
War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Editing
Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing
Dunkirk
Best Original Score
The Shape of Water
Best Original Song
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
That’s all for now but expect final predictions shortly before the ceremony!
The nominations for this February’s Academy Awards were revealed this morning by Andy Serkis and Tiffany Haddish. As always, there were some surprises and my months long quest for prediction perfection fell short. Of the 109 nominations, I correctly guessed 78 of them and that works out to 71% (a bit lower than previous years, but oh well).
Here I’ll break down every category and tell you how I did with a bit of analysis:
Best Picture
Nominees: Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
How I Did: 7/9
Analysis: OK, lesson learned. When in doubt, predict NINE. The Best Picture category can fluctuate between 5 and 10 nominees, but that seems to be the magic number. I had The Florida Project in, but it was 8th out of my 8 predictions in likelihood so no big surprise there. Also not surprising is Darkest Hour getting in. A bit more so is the inclusion of Phantom Thread, which did far better this morning than I or almost anyone else figured.
Best Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Jordan Peele (Get Out)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: As mentioned above, the surprise here is Anderson’s nod for Phantom. Hard to believe but this is Nolan’s first nomination for direction. I had Martin McDonagh’s work in Three Billboards included. Worth noting: it’s happened, but it’s rare for a movie to win Best Picture without their maker being recognized. This could fuel even more talk that The Shape of Water is the front-runner in the big race.
Best Actor
Nominees: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name), Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: One of the major questions going into this morning is whether recent allegations could prevent James Franco’s nod for The Disaster Artist. We may never know the answer to that fully, but it was expected he’d be a safe inclusion until then and he missed out. In his place – Mr. Washington, nominated for the second year in a row. In short: this is Oldman’s race to lose and it’s highly doubtful he will.
Best Actress
Nominees: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), Meryl Streep (The Post)
How I Did: 5/5
Analysis: For quite some time, this has seemed like the five for Actress and it panned out that way.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water), Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Plummer got in for his highly publicized role after taking over for Kevin Spacey at very short notice over my prediction of Armie Hammer in Call Me by Your Name.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Mary J. Blige (Mudbound), Allison Janney (I, Tonya), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: The Phantom love continued with Manville’s inclusion over my prediction for Hong Chau in Downsizing.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Call Me by Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly’s Game, Mudbound
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: In a bit of a surprise to me, Logan became the first superhero flick to get a writing nomination. I had Wonder in instead.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: I went with I, Tonya over The Big Sick, but this certainly was no shocker. Unlike several prognosticators, I did correctly leave Sick out of the Best Picture race and this marks its sole nod.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, Coco, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: People love that Boss Baby apparently. It got in over my projected The Girl Without Hands. This is an easy winner to predict – Pixar’s Coco.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless, On Body and Soul, The Square
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: Golden Globe winner In the Fade and Foxtrot (which some saw as a potential winner) missed the cut. In their place: Soul and Square.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Faces Places, Icarus, Last Men in Aleppo, Strong Island
How I Did: 2/5
Analysis: Welp… there always seem to be that category where I whiff and get 2 out of 5 (last year it was Production Design). This year it’s the docs, where Jane (which many saw as a front-runner), City of Ghosts, and Long Strange Trip missed out in favor of Abacus, Aleppo, and Island.
Best Film Editing
Nominees: Baby Driver, Dunkirk, I, Tonya, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
How I Did: 5/5
Analysis: Besides Actress, this is my only other perfect category.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Mudbound, The Shape of Water
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Rachel Morrison made some Oscar history by becoming the first female nominated in this category for Mudbound. I predicted The Post over Darkest Hour.
Best Production Design
Nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Wouldn’t you know it? Here’s one race where I had Phantom Thread in and it didn’t make it. Beauty got in instead.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Victoria and Abdul
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: I went with Murder on the Orient Express, but Darkest Hour prevailed. This should be a rather easy victory for Phantom (and perhaps its only).
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Darkest Hour, Victoria and Abdul, Wonder
How I Did: 2/3
Analysis: Victoria over I, Tonya. Look for Gary Oldman’s transformation to Churchill in Darkest Hour to be the victor.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Kong: Skull Island, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: Dunkirk and The Shape of Water were my misses with Guardians and Kong filling in.
Best Sound Editing
Nominees: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: Turns out I should have predicted The Shape of Water in both sound categories. I had War for the Planet of the Apes instead here.
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: The sound races matched this year with Star Wars in over my predicted The Greatest Showman.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: I expected John Williams to be recognized, but for The Post instead of Star Wars. Also had Darkest Hour here and not Three Billboards.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Mighty River” from Mudbound, “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name, “Remember Me” from Coco, “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall, “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
How I Did: 4/5
Analysis: “The Mystery of Love” got in over “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit.
And that leaves the final official breakdown of films and number of nominations to this:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
8 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6 Nominations
Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049, Lady Bird
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3 Nominations
Baby Driver, I, Tonya
2 Nominations
Beauty and the Beast, Coco, The Post, Victoria and Abdul
1 Nomination
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, All the Money in the World, The Big Sick, The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, The Disaster Artist, Faces Places, A Fantastic Woman, Ferdinand, The Florida Project, The Greatest Showman, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Icarus, The Insult, Kong: Skull Island, Last Men in Aleppo, Logan, Loveless, Loving Vincent, Marshall, Molly’s Game, On Body and Soul, Roman J. Israel, Esq., The Square, Strong Island, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder
I’ll have a post up either later tonight or tomorrow with my initial round of predicted winners! Until then…
With Oscar nominations set to drop Tuesday, a big precursor is bestowing trophies on Sunday night when the SAG Awards air. Oftentimes, this particular show can be a better indicator of things to come at the Academy Awards than the Golden Globes.
In the 23 years that the SAG ceremony has been held, the winners of the four categories have matched up with Oscar as follows:
Actor: 18/23
Actress: 17/23
Supporting Actor: 14/23
Supporting Actress: 16/23
Of course, since this is an award given out by fellow actors, there is no “Best Picture” category. Instead the night’s top prize is Best Ensemble (which has matched Best Picture just 10 of 23 times). The individual acting races could give further fuel to performers looking for that Oscar and continue to dilute the hopes of others.
Here’s my estimates for the SAG winners on Sunday:
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
Mudbound
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted Winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Predicted Winner: Gary Oldman
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Predicted Winner: Frances McDormand
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted Winner: Willem Dafoe
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Predicted Winner: Allison Janney
And there you have it! You can peruse my FINAL Oscar predictions here:
For over four months, I have been making weekly Oscar predictions and it all comes down to this Tuesday morning when they are at last revealed. These are my FINAL predictions along with a first and second alternate in each category.
Tuesday on the blog – I’ll have results on how I did with reaction to the nominations in general. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1st Alternate – I, Tonya
2nd Alternate – The Big Sick
Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
1st Alternate – Steven Spielberg, The Post
2nd Alternate – Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
1st Alternate – Tom Hanks, The Post
2nd Alternate – Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
1st Alternate – Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
2nd Alternate – Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1st Alternate – Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
2nd Alternate – Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
2nd Alternate – Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Wonder
1st Alternate – Victoria and Abdul
2nd Alternate – Wonderstruck
Best Original Screenplay
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1st Alternate – The Big Sick
2nd Alternate – The Florida Project
Best Animated Feature
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
The Girl Without Hands
Loving Vincent
1st Alternate – The LEGO Batman Movie
2nd Alternate – Cars 3
Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
The Insult
In the Fade
Loveless
1st Alternate – The Square
2nd Alternate – The Wound
Best Documentary Feature
City of Ghosts
Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
Long Strange Trip
1st Alternate – Strong Island
2nd Alternate – Last Men in Aleppo
Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1st Alternate – The Post
2nd Alternate – Get Out
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Post
The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Darkest Hour
2nd Alternate – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Production Design
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Beauty and the Beast
2nd Alternate – Murder on the Orient Express
Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Murder on the Orient Express
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
1st Alternate – The Post
2nd Alternate – The Beguiled
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder
1st Alternate – Bright
2nd Alternate – Victoria and Abdul
Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
1st Alternate – Okja
2nd Alternate – Kong: Skull Island
Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
1st Alternate – The Shape of Water
2nd Alternate – The Greatest Showman
Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Star Wars: The Lat Jedi
2nd Alternate – Beauty and the Beast
Best Original Score
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
1st Alternate – Victoria and Abdul
2nd Alternate – Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Original Song
“It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit
“Mighty River” from Mudbound
“Remember Me” from Coco
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
1st Alternate – “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast
2nd Alternate – “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name
And that leaves the final predicted list of nominations for each picture:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, I, Tonya, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Get Out, Phantom Thread, Darkest Hour, The Post, Mudbound
3 Nominations
Baby Driver
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Wonder, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes, The Greatest Showman
1 Nomination
Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Beauty and the Beast, Murder on the Orient Express, Victoria and Abdul, Detroit, Marshall, The Breadwinner, Ferdinand, The Girl Without Hands, Loving Vincent, A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, The Insult, In the Fade, Loveless, City of Ghosts, Faces Places, Icarus, Jane, Long Strange Trip
And there you have it, folks! I’ll have reaction up Tuesday…
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