Tag: I Swear

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    Oscar Predictions: I Swear

    English writer/director Kirk Jones’s biopic I Swear already made waves (some of them unexpected) at the 79th BAFTAs in February. It hopes to do the same at the 99th Academy Awards a little less than a year from now. The true life story of John Davidson (who has severe Tourette’s) stars Robert Aramayo as the film’s central figure. Maxine Peake, Shirley Henderson, and Peter Mullan costar.

    With a U.K. release in October of last year. Swear scored BAFTA nods for Outstanding British Film, Supporting Actor (Mullan), Original Screenplay, and Casting. The fifth nom was the surprising victory for Aramayo in lead actor over Oscar and SAG Actor winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) and Critics Choice and Golden Globe recipient Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme).

    The stateside release for Swear is April 24th. With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic, inclusion in Original Screenplay months down the line (and maybe Casting) isn’t out of the question. Yet Swear‘s best shot at inclusion is for Aramayo. Obviously we don’t yet know how strong that derby will be (it seems there’s plenty of major contenders). I wouldn’t discount the BAFTA winner as a possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

    And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

    We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

    For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.

    He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.

    We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.

    John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.

    For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?

    The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    Tom Cruise, Digger

    Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    Other Possibilities:

    Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

    Andrew Garfield, Artificial

    Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    Jaafar Jackson, Michael

    Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

    Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    Will Poulter, Saturn Return

    Dominic Sessa, Tony

    Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    98th Academy Awards: FINAL Winner Predictions

    It is time to make my final predictions for the 98th Academy Awards airing Sunday evening with Conan O’Brien returning as host. The first word that comes to mind… ugh. This is tough. Not every category. Some are quite easy to forecast as is normally the case.

    The ones that aren’t? I would say five of the top six competitions could go in different directions and that’s unique. As readers of my blog know, there are scores of individual write-ups talking about the Oscar chances of various films. There are multiple posts ranking the possibilities of pics, performers, directors, writers, and all kinds of crew members. It’s now time to put pencils down and write down my selections in pen for the 21 (now that Best Casting has joined the lineup) feature-length races.

    Let’s get to it as I’ll select a winner and runner-up in each! And you can bet I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with reaction and how I did!

    Best Picture

    Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

    This is a head vs. gut call. The head says One Battle After Another which has taken PGA, the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. That kind of combo would normally be undeniable in BP. Yet Sinners is more of the gut prediction. Having just won Best Ensemble at SAG Actor, Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale seems to be peaking at the right time as voters finalize ballots. The record haul of 16 noms is an obvious bonus.

    I cannot stress enough how much of a coin flip this is. I may look foolish on Sunday by betting against the kind of hardware that Battle has achieved in the precursors. However, for several days, the momentum of Sinners has me leaning in its direction.

    WINNER: Sinners

    Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

    Best Director

    Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

    2021 was the last year where there was a BP/Director split with CODA taking the grand prize and Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) winning Director. Mr. Anderson has swept the precursors including the Directors Guild of America (DGA) which rarely differs from Oscar. A better night for Sinners than even I’m projecting could cause Ryan Coogler to become the first African-American to make this particular podium trip. In this case, my head and gut say PTA.

    WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

    Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

    Best Actress

    Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

    Someone other than Jessie Buckley had to win Actress in a Musical or Comedy at the Globes. That was Rose Byrne. Therefore she gets runner-up status. Make no mistake. Of the major categories, this is by far the easiest as Buckley has won everything else.

    WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

    Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

    Best Actor

    Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

    For a while, Critics Choice and Globe winner Timothée Chalamet was looking almost as certain as Buckley. BAFTA and SAG changed that dynamic and they are the last two precursors heading into Oscar voting. At the British ceremony, the not Academy nominated Robert Aramayo (I Swear) was triumphant. At SAG, it was Michael B. Jordan. There’s also Golden Globe Best Drama in a Drama recipient Wagner Moura. All three are viable. Heck there’s even prognosticators making arguments for DiCaprio and Hawke. This is an example where I’m ultimately buying the Sinners mojo though Chalamet still has a stronger shot than some are giving him credit for.

    WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

    Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

    Best Supporting Actress

    Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

    This one has been all over the place. The Globe went to Teyana Taylor, Amy Madigan took Critics Choice and SAG Actor, and Wunmi Mosaku grabbed BAFTA. Madigan’s performance is so singularly memorable that a win makes plenty of sense. Like Actor, I’m going with where I think the winds are blowing.

    WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

    Runner-Up: Amy Madigan, Weapons

    Best Supporting Actor

    Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

    Like Supporting Actress, a head scratcher. Critics Choice went to Jacob Elordi with Stellan Skarsgård getting the Globe. The latter seems more probable and, yes, Sinners love could extend to Lindo. BAFTA and SAG flipped the script by going with Sean Penn who would be picking up the rare third Oscar. This is a case where Battle has the late breaking momentum.

    WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

    Runner-Up: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

    Best Original Screenplay

    Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners

    While most of the races above are tricky, the screenplay ones are not. Value stands the best chance at an upset but Sinners is the easy pick.

    WINNER: Sinners

    Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

    Repeat everything I said for Original Screenplay and replace Battle for Sinners and Hamnet for Value.

    WINNER: One Battle After Another

    Runner-Up: Hamnet

    Best International Feature Film

    It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

    At one time, Accident was seen as a potential frontrunner. The competition has morphed to a showdown between Value and Agent. This could definitely go either way, but I’ll give the edge to Value achieving something with its nine nominations.

    WINNER: Sentimental Value

    Runner-Up: The Secret Agent

    Best Animated Feature

    Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

    Zootopia 2 becoming 2025’s largest grossing blockbuster right as voting was occurring cannot hurt. It’s just hard to ignore the cultural juggernaut that KPop is.

    WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters

    Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

    Best Documentary Feature

    The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

    This is a category capable of surprises and I could see Alabama, Good Light, and especially BAFTA winner Putin getting called up. Neighbor got lots of attention via its Netflix release and I’ll say the true crime doc squeaks through.

    WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor

    Runner-Up: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

    Best Casting

    Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners

    The inaugural year of the Casting contest is consists of five BP nominees and I’m going with the one I’m seledting as the winner.

    WINNER: Sinners

    Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

    Best Cinematography

    Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

    Train Dreams has notched some precursors and is a real threat and the same logic certainly applies to Battle. Either could win. So could Sinners with that BP momentum. This is one I think Battle could manage to get and I’ll give it a slight edge over my BP selection

    WINNER: One Battle After Another

    Runner-Up: Sinners

    Best Costume Design

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners

    While we’re still wondering what Avatar is doing here, this is one of three races that Frankenstein is likely to collect.

    WINNER: Frankenstein

    Runner-Up: Sinners

    Best Film Editing

    F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

    F1 could zoom past the competition and Battle might be the safer bet. I’ll go with my BP pick for this one.

    WINNER: Sinners

    Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister

    This is the second Frankenstein victory unless Sinners has a truly amazing evening.

    WINNER: Frankenstein

    Runner-Up: Sinners

    Best Original Score

    Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

    Sinners is anticipated to emerge here rather easily.

    WINNER: Sinners

    Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

    Best Original Song

    “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

    The Sinners tune could score the upset though “Golden” should be just that.

    WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

    Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners

    Best Production Design

    Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

    Frankenstein Oscar #3 expected with Sinners looming.

    WINNER: Frankenstein

    Runner-Up: Sinners

    Best Sound

    F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

    One of the trickiest down the line categories as Sinners could absolutely prevail and a Sirāt upset is feasible. I do think the autotunes of F1 gets it by a nose.

    WINNER: F1

    Runner-Up: Sinners

    Best Visual Effects

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners

    The first two Avatar flicks nabbed VE as should the third.

    WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash

    Runner-Up: F1

    That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of victories:

    7 Wins

    Sinners

    4 Wins

    One Battle After Another

    3 Wins

    Frankenstein

    2 Wins

    KPop Demon Hunters

    1 Win

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Hamnet, The Perfect Neighbor, Sentimental Value

    32nd Actor Awards Reaction

    Some Oscar categories may have become more solidified (Supporting Actor) while others remain unsettled (Actor and Supporting Actor and perhaps Best Picture) courtesy of tonight’s 32nd Actor Awards. Formerly known as SAG, Kristen Bell returned to host the Netflix aired ceremony where Sinners remained a viable alternative to One Battle After Another for Best Picture in two weeks.

    It was the only film to take 2 prizes as I correctly called it for Best Ensemble. Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale did take an acting honor, but not the one I forecasted. In Best Actor, Michael B. Jordan is the winner over Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and this opens up the real possibility of him grabbing the Oscar. After Robert Aramayo (I Swear) took BAFTA, Chalamet is looking truly vulnerable.

    On a night where I went 4 for 6, the other miss was projecting BAFTA victor Wunmi Mosaku’s work in Sinners for Supporting Actress. Instead the Screen Actors Guild went with Critics Choice winner Amy Madigan in Weapons. That race is legit looking like an open contest between Madigan (who now has 2 key precursors) and Mosaku and Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another).

    Battle‘s Sean Penn is your Supporting Actor honoree and he’s grabbed 2 trophies in a row (BAFTA). I wouldn’t want to bet against him on Oscar night for what would be a third gold statue.

    Jessie Buckley’s sweep continued in Best Actress for Hamnet. With all preceding ceremonies going her way, she is unquestionably the easiest acting derby to predict for the Academy.

    In the Stunt Ensemble race, the voters predictably went with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.

    From a pure precursor standpoint, Battle has won top honors at the Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and PGA. That mix is hard to deny. Yet late breaking momentum certainly makes Sinners the easy runner-up and a threat to be the Academy’s BP.

    Stay tuned to the blog for final Oscar predictions in a few days!

    32nd Actor Awards Winner Predictions

    The ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards is now the Actor Awards and the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs Sunday, March 1st. Kristen Bell returns to host a show that is tough to predict, especially in the supporting fields where no frontrunner has emerged via the precursors. Will the Screen Actors Guild help make it clearer or muddy it up even more?

    Let’s walk through the six movie races with my thoughts and a winner and runner-up projection. I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with initial thoughts and how I did.

    Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

    Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

    Over the past 10 years, this ensemble award has matched the Academy’s Best Picture half the time
    (Spotlight, Parasite, CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer). I would definitely say the two pics with a shot to win are Battle and Sinners, the two BP favorites. While the former may have an edge with the Academy, my hunch is that SAG goes with Ryan Coogler’s sprawling cast.

    WINNER: Sinners

    Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

    Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

    This category has matched Oscar 6 out the last 10 years. Actress is the only competition where the possibility of a sweep is still open. Jessie Buckley has triumphed everywhere else and I see no compelling reason why this guild would change that.

    WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

    Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

    Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

    The idea of a Chalamet sweep was halted when BAFTA unexpectedly rolled with Robert Aramayo in I Swear (who isn’t nominated here or at the Oscars). My hesitation to pick Chalamet has less to do with that and more to do with the fact he won SAG Actor last year for A Complete Unknown. I could see Hawke taking this prize for his showy role or the voters selecting Jordan. Ultimately I’m not pulling the trigger on the upset, but don’t discount the possibility. There is a 7 for 10 Actor/Oscar match over the past decade.

    WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

    Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

    Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

    Ugh… this is a tough one. There is no consistency among the precursors – Critics Choice went with Madigan, the Globes honored Taylor, and BAFTA picked Mosaku. One could certainly argue that Mosaku has the momentum and that if Sinners takes Best Ensemble, it increases the chances of a solo acting victory. Taylor could solidify her status as Oscar favorite with this award. This is essentially a three-way coin flip. Madigan could certainly emerge as this branch has shown the ability to honor the horror genre in a way the Academy doesn’t (see Demi Moore last year for The Substance). My gut says Sinners gets that one solo prize though I cannot stress enough that I almost went with Taylor. There is a 9 for 10 match with this branch and Oscar since 2015.

    WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

    Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

    Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

    There’s a 9 for 10 match here as well and this is just as wide open as Supporting Actress. Critics Choice called Elordi as their winner, Globes picked Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value (not nominated here), and BAFTA went with Sean Penn. In this case, I am going with the BAFTA momentum though his costar del Toro might pose the realest threat.

    WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

    Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

    Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

    F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners

    Tom Cruise’s franchise is known for stunts so I wouldn’t bet against it.

    WINNER: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

    Runner-Up: F1

    79th BAFTA Awards Reaction

    I didn’t anticipate mentioning the 2000 feature Billy Elliot in my BAFTA recap covering 2025 pictures, but these voters are dancing to the beat of a different drum so here we are! That’s one surprise of several that developed at the British equivalent of the Academy Awards. It was not surprising that Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another led the way and (yes) won one BAFTA after another. However, the outcome of the acting races provided legit unexpected results and might have a hand in reshaping what happens at the 98th Oscars.

    As far as results, I went 14 for 23 in my projections and 1 for 4 in the acting derbies. I correctly forecasted Best Film and Director BAFTAs for One Battle After Another and its maker Anderson. Same goes for its victories in Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography. It also took the Editing prize where I had F1.

    In Supporting Actor, Battle‘s Sean Penn emerged in a field where I picked Stellan Skasgård as the winner and had Penn’s costar Benicio del Toro as the runner-up. We now have 3 different Supporting Actor victors in the three highest profiles precursors – Penn at BAFTA, Skarsgård at the Globes, and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) at Critics Choice. Let’s see what SAG Actor does next weekend as this race is wide open.

    Battle did nothing but help its status as BP Oscar frontrunner. Yet Sinners didn’t take a significant hit. It won Original Screenplay and I went with Sentimental Value. I correctly picked it for Original Score.

    In Supporting Actress, it represented a One Battle miss and a Sinners pickup. I went with Teyana Taylor, but Wunmi Mosaku lodged her first major recognition. Like Supporting Actor, we now have a trio of recipients among the precursors – Mosaku at BAFTA, Taylor at the Globes, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) at Critics Choice. Once again, SAG Actor will be closely viewed in another wide open acting derby. Simply put, I can’t remember the last time both supporting fields were this unpredictable.

    That’s not the case in Actress where Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) predictably did a podium walk as her chances at a seasonal sweep are looking strong.

    We will not be seeing a Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) sweep. I had him taking Actor with Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) as runner-up. BAFTA went their own way with Robert Aramayo (I Swear). He was additionally named the BAFTA Rising Star. Aramayo is not nominated at Oscar. The last time a BAFTA Best Actor wasn’t among the Academy’s quintet? That would be Jamie Bell in the title role of… you guessed it (!) Billy Elliot.

    Here’s where I managed to get it right – Hamnet for Outstanding British Film and Sentimental Value having a subpar day with its sole win for Film Not in the English Language. I was correct in calling Zootopia 2 as Best Animated Film. Same goes for Frankenstein with the trio of Costume Design, Makeup & Hair, and Production Design and F1 in Sound and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Special Visual Effects.

    Here’s where I whiffed. I will pat myself on the back for predicting The Perfect Neighbor would not be the documentary that BAFTA selected. Unfortunately I went with 2000 Meters to Andrivka and not Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Could it emerge as a spoiler to a Neighbor Oscar prize?

    Pillion looked like the pick for Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer, but BAFTA chose My Father’s Shadow. Same with Children’s & Family Film where Zootopia 2 looked probable, but Boong was listed in the envelope. In Casting (always a tough race to project), I Swear emerged over Sentimental Value and my runner-up One Battle.

    So what’s the biggest takeaway? I’d say the chaos occurring in the supporting competitions and that Battle vs. Sinners appears to still be a battle.

    Today’s ceremony bestowed these numbers of wins for these movies:

    6 Wins

    One Battle After Another

    3 Wins

    Frankenstein, Sinners

    2 Wins

    Hamnet, I Swear

    1 Win

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, Boong, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, Sentimental Value, Zootopia 2

    I’ll have winner predictions up for SAG Actor (happening a week from today) on the blog soon!

    79th BAFTA Winner Predictions

    The 79th BAFTAs (Britain’s version of the Academy Awards) occur this Sunday and they are often a reliable precursor to what Oscar voters will do. For example, they are 8 for 8 in the past two cycles in forecasting the acting races. On the flip side, in 2022, none of the four BAFTA acting recipients took the Oscar. The previous five cycles has seen the BAFTA Best Film match with Best Picture only twice (Nomadland, Oppenheimer). In 2021, the Brits honored The Power of the Dog over CODA (which wasn’t nominated). The following year it was All Quiet on the Western Front instead of Everything Everywhere All at Once. Last year, BAFTA selected Conclave and not Anora.

    That’s why it’s very tempting to go with Hamnet over arguable frontrunners One Battle After Another and Sinners in the top competition. I almost did so, but ultimately decided with roll with Battle (with a low degree of confidence). Let’s walk through each race one by one with my winner projections and a runner-up.

    Best Film

    Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

    WINNER: One Battle After Another

    Runner-Up: Hamnet

    Best Director

    Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

    WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

    Runner-Up: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

    Best Actress

    Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

    WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

    Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

    Best Actor

    Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

    WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

    Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

    Best Supporting Actress

    Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)

    WINNER: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

    Runner-Up: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

    Best Supporting Actor

    Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

    WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

    Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

    Best Original Screenplay

    I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

    WINNER: Sentimental Value

    Runner-Up: Sinners

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion

    WINNER: One Battle After Another

    Runner-Up: Hamnet

    Outstanding British Film

    28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die My Love, H is for Hawk, Hamnet, I Swear, Mr Burton, Pillion, Steve

    WINNER: Hamnet

    Runner-Up: Pillion

    Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

    The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman

    WINNER: Pillion

    Runner-Up: My Father’s Shadow

    Best Film Not in the English Language

    It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

    WINNER: Sentimental Value

    Runner-Up: The Secret Agent

    Best Animated Film

    Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

    WINNER: Zootopia 2

    Runner-Up: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

    Best Children’s & Family Film

    Arco, Boong, Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2

    WINNER: Zootopia 2

    Runner-Up: Arco

    Best Documentary

    2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

    WINNER: 2000 Meters to Andrivka

    Runner-Up: The Perfect Neighbor

    Best Casting

    I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

    WINNER: Sentimental Value

    Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

    Best Cinematography

    Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

    WINNER: One Battle After Another

    Runner-Up: Sinners

    Best Costume Design

    Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

    WINNER: Frankenstein

    Runner-Up: Hamnet

    Best Editing

    F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

    WINNER: F1

    Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

    Best Make Up & Hair

    Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

    WINNER: Frankenstein

    Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

    Best Original Score

    Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

    WINNER: Sinners

    Runner-Up: Hamnet

    Best Production Design

    Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

    WINNER: Frankenstein

    Runner-Up: Hamnet

    Best Sound

    F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

    WINNER: F1

    Runner-Up: Sinners

    Best Special Visual Effects

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus

    WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash

    Runner-Up: F1

    That adds up to these movies generating numbers of victories:

    5 Wins

    One Battle After Another

    4 Wins

    Sentimental Value

    3 Wins

    Frankenstein

    2 Wins

    F1, Hamnet, Zootopia 2

    1 Win

    2000 Meters to Andrivka, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, Pillion, Sinners

    I’ll have a recap up Sunday with how I performed and my thoughts on how it might impact the Oscars…

    79th BAFTA Nominations Reaction

    Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs were unveiled five days after the Academy revealed their list. The Brits equivalent of the Oscars can often indicate which nominees and pictures are (or aren’t) having momentum in the general awards space.

    Overall I went 92 for 122 (75%) in the feature-length categories. Let’s walk through each race with the hopefuls in contention, how I did, and some initial thoughts.

    Best Film

    Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

    How I Did: 5/5 (!)

    No surprise here as One Battle led all nominees with 14 and Sinners right behind with 13. It will probably come down to those two pics with Battle having an edge. I would say Hamnet is a spoiler but it missed some key races.

    Best Director

    Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

    How I Did: 6/6 (!)

    The best film five and Lanthimos as I predicted. PTA is the favorite.

    Best Actress

    Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

    How I Did: 5/6

    I gotta stop leaving out Kate Hudson. She’s in over my upset selection of Andrea Riseborough (Dragonfly). Bet on Buckley.

    Best Actor

    Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

    How I Did: 5/6

    Aramayo gets in over Pillion‘s Harry Melling. Chalamet could continue his sweep unless DiCaprio or Hawke upset.

    Best Supporting Actress

    Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)

    How I Did: 5/6

    A genuine surprise as Amy Madigan (Weapons) is left out in favor of Mulligan. This is likely between Lilleass and Taylor.

    Best Supporting Actor

    Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

    How I Did: 5/6

    I had Stellan’s son Alexander Skarsgård (Pillion) joining the sextet and not Mullan. It’s Stellan who probably has the best odds.

    Best Original Screenplay

    I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

    How I Did: 4/5

    The Secret Agent over Blue Moon. This is a Value v. Sinners derby.

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion

    How I Did: 4/5

    Ballad over Frankenstein with OBAA out front.

    Best Animated Feature

    Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

    How I Did: 1/3

    I whiffed here. First of all, this race typically has four nominees. I had Arco, Demon Slayer, and KPop Demon Hunters and not Elio or Amélie (which was frankly an oversight on my part). It could win and so could Zootopia 2 which is the only flick I correctly called.

    Best Documentary

    Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, 2000 Meters to Andrivka

    How I Did: 4/5

    Some retribution after my 1/5 showing at the Oscars. I had Ocean with David Attenborough and not Cover-Up. I wouldn’t assume Neighbor takes this even though it’s the Oscar frontrunner. I actually think all five are viable.

    Best Film Not in the English Language

    It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

    How I Did: 5/5 (!)

    This matches the Academy’s quintet and, like that show, this is probably Agent or Value.

    Best Casting

    I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

    How I Did: 3/5

    Hamnet (in a notable miss) or Sirāt are out with I Swear and Supreme in. A likely Sinners trophy.

    Best Cinematography

    Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

    How I Did: 4/5

    Frankenstein and not Hamnet in another interesting omission. I’ll note this is the only nom for Train Dreams as this should come down to Battle or Sinners.

    Best Costume Design

    Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

    How I Did: 4/5

    Unlike Oscar, Wicked managed to get some BAFTA attention (albeit limited). I had Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and not Supreme (which had a solid day). Frankenstein may take this.

    Best Editing

    F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

    How I Did: 3/5

    Another Battle/Sinners race as F1 and Dynamite show up over Bugonia and (you guessed it) Hamnet.

    Best Make Up and Hair

    Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

    How I Did: 3/5

    A strange quintet as Hamnet gets an unexpected mention as does Supreme and not One Battle or (more surprisingly) The Smashing Machine. This should go to Frankenstein.

    Best Original Score

    Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

    How I Did: 5/5 (!)

    Sinners is the frontrunner.

    Best Production Design

    Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

    How I Did: 3/5

    I had Bugonia and Wicked instead of Marty and Battle. Another probable win for Frankenstein.

    Best Sound

    F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

    How I Did: 3/5

    Frankenstein/Warfare over Avatar: Fire and Ash/Wicked. Think Sinners with F1 spoiler possibility.

    Best Special Visual Effects

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus

    How I Did: 4/5

    Dragon, not Superman as Avatar is ahead.

    Outstanding British Film

    28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die, My Love, Hamnet, H is for Hawk, I Swear, Mr. Burton, Pillion, Steve

    How I Did: 7/10

    I went with Ballad of a Small Player, The Choral, and Warfare over Jones, Burton, and Steve. One would think Hamnet takes this though I Swear is viable as an upset pick.

    Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

    The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman

    How I Did: 3/5

    Ceremony/Want over Oceans with David Attenborough and Urchin. Pillion should win.

    Best Children’s + Family Film

    Arco, Boong, Lilo + Stitch, Zootopia 2

    How I Did: 2/4

    Grow and How to Train Your Dragon miss and not Boong and Lilo with Zootopia out front.

    That works out to the following movies getting these numbers of nominations:

    14 Nominations

    One Battle After Another

    13 Nominations

    Sinners

    11 Nominatons

    Hamnet, Marty Supreme

    8 Nominations

    Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

    5 Nominations

    Bugonia, I Swear

    3 Nominations

    The Ballad of Wallis Island, F1, Pillion

    2 Nominations

    The Secret Agent, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2

    1 Nomination

    28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Cover-Up, Blue Moon, Boong, The Ceremony, Die, My Love, Elio, H is for Hawk, A House of Dynamite, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Lilo & Stitch, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Burton, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirāt, Song Sung Blue, Steve, Train Dreams, The Voice of Hind Rajab, A Want in Her, Warfare, Wasteman

    The BAFTAs air February 22nd and you can expect a recap on the blog when that happens.