Tag: I Know What You Did Last Summer

August 1-3 Box Office Predictions

While The Fantastic Four: First Steps looks to ride a wave of solid buzz to a second weekend atop the charts, three new releases will jockey for position. We have animated sequel The Bad Guys 2, comedy franchise reboot The Naked Gun, and the Dave Franco/Alison Brie body horror experience Together premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

The Bad Guys 2 Box Office Prediction
The Naked Gun Box Office Prediction
Together Box Office Prediction

Unless The Bad Guys 2 significantly underperforms or The Naked Gun really fires on all cylinders, it should manage a runner-up debut. I’m projecting high 20s which would improve on its 2022 predecessor’s mid-twenties rollout.

The Naked Gun is the biggest question mark of the weekend. While nostalgia could propel it to better than anticipated numbers, series unfamiliarity among younger patrons could hinder it. The range is wide as I see the floor in the teens with breakout potential putting it in second place. My lower 20s compromise means a commendable third place.

Together is at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes, but horror fans have had plenty to feast on recently. My higher single digits estimate (and low double digits when factoring in its Wednesday bow) might put it in a face-off for fifth with the fifth weekend of Jurassic World Rebirth.

As mentioned, The Fantastic Four: First Steps should have no trouble staying in 1st. A mid to high 50s decline would be a bit more than the 53% experienced by Superman. Speaking of Supes, a fourth weekend decline close to 50% should mean fourth place.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $50.6 million

2. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $28.1 million

3. The Naked Gun

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million

4. Superman

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

5. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Together

Predicted Gross: $7 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (July 25-27)

MCU’s 37th feature yielded its 37th #1 in a row as The Fantastic Four: First Steps made $117.6 million. It came close to Superman‘s start, falling short by just over $7 million. The critically appreciated reboot also couldn’t match my $122.4 million prediction. This is still a nice start while not getting to the rosiest of projections.

Superman dropped to second with $24.8 million, flying under my $28 million call. DC’s reboot (that word is popular with this summer’s crop) is nearing $300 million with $289 million in its coffers after three weeks.

Jurassic World Rebirth did cross that threshold with $13.2 million more in weekend #4, in line with my $13.6 million projection. The tally is $301 million.

Other holdovers were in close range with my guesstimates. F1 was fourth with $6.3 million (I said $6.7 million) for five-week earnings of $165 million.

Smurfs rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I went with $5.5 million). The animated, yes, reboot has brought in a sleepy $22 million in two weeks.

I Know What You Did Last Summer was sixth with $5.2 million (I said $5.3 million) for $23 million in its ten days of release.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Superheroes will continue to rule the summer box office charts with Marvel’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps taking the top spot from DC’s Superman. The MCU reboot is the sole wide release newcomer this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps Box Office Prediction

Estimates are a bit all over the map for Steps. The general consensus is that it will top $100 million. Some projections have it eclipsing the $125 million that Superman accomplished just two frames ago. I have it coming in a tad lower, but think it has a better shot at over-indexing than under.

The comic book competition could mean another low 50s decline for the Man of Steel in its third outing with Jurassic World Rebirth sliding from second to third.

Slots 4-6 could be interesting as I Know What You Did Last Summer should suffer a heftier plummet than Smurfs or F1.

Here’s how I see 1-6 shaking out:

1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $122.4 million

2. Superman

Predicted Gross: $28 million

3. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

4. F1

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. Smurfs

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

6. I Know What You Did Last Summer

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (July 18-20)

Superman from DC Studios continued to fly high at #1 for the second week in a row with $58.4 million, slightly exceeding my $56.2 million call. James Gunn’s franchise restart has amassed $236 million after ten days.

Jurassic World Rebirth was second with $23.7 million, ahead of my $19.1 million call. The dino pic is up to $276 million following three weeks of play.

While I Know What You Did Last Summer was the biggest grossing newbie, the long gestating horror sequel came in the lower end of its range with $12.7 million in third. That’s under my $17.7 million forecast as viewers weren’t hooked by the return of the late 90s series.

Same goes for Smurfs which flopped in fourth with $11 million compared to my $12.4 million guesstimate. The animated tale with voice work from Rihanna couldn’t find its intended family audience.

F1 rounded out the top five by easing only 24% with $9.8 million, zooming past my $7.5 million take. The four-week total is $153 million.

Finally, Ari Aster’s COVID Western Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and the ubiquitous Pedro Pascal was seventh with a weak $4.2 million (though it did manage to outdo my $3.4 million prediction).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Two new franchise reboots will attempt to exceed expectations and post strong second and third place showings while two existing franchise reboots seek to stay 1-2. I Know What You Did Last Summer and Smurfs are the rookie contenders. We also have Ari Aster’s Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and Pedro Pascal out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:

I Know What You Did Last Summer Box Office Prediction
Smurfs Box Office Prediction
Eddington Box Office Prediction

I Know What You Did Last Summer continues the horror saga we witnessed in the late 90s. I think this has the potential to hit low 20s, but I’ll go along with projections in the mid to higher teens. My take puts it not far behind Jurassic World Rebirth for third place.

As for Smurfs, this reinvigoration of this franchise after eight years is not expected to yield impressive results. Like Summer, it could top general forecasts. However, I’m agreeing that low double digits to possibly low teens will be the result and that means fourth place.

I’m not expecting audiences to visit Eddington. The satire, despite some star power, is flying under the radar. As mentioned in my post, I don’t anticipate a desire from moviegoers to revisit the heyday of the COVID pandemic when this is set. My $3.4 million projection would leave it outside the top five and probably in seventh place.

There’s no real mystery what will place first and that would be James Gunn’s Superman in its sophomore outing. The only question is how much it drops in weekend #2. A number close to Thunderbolts* (56%) from earlier this summer would make sense. I doubt it plummets to the degree that 2013’s Man of Steel did at 65%. I’ll say mid to high 50s is the most likely result.

Here’s how I envision the high five shaking out:

1. Superman

Predicted Gross: $56.2 million

2. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

3. I Know What You Did Last Summer

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million

4. Smurfs

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

5. F1

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (July 11-13)

Superman, as predicted, blasted off with the third best opening of 2025 at $125 million. That’s a tad shy of my $128.6 million call. Generally in line with its anticipated range, it gets this iteration of the DC Universe off to a respectable start and the A- Cinemascore grade is decent as well.

Jurassic World Rebirth held better than I figured with $40.3 million in second compared to my $34.2 million estimate. The dino tale stands at $232 million after ten days and it should be safe to assume the franchise isn’t extinct.

F1 was third with $13 million (I said $13.3 million) as the racing drama has made $136 million after three weeks.

How to Train Your Dragon was fourth with $7.9 million, rising above my $6.8 million forecast for a five-week haul of $239 million.

Finally, Disney’s disappointing Elio took the 5 spot with $4 million (I went with $3.4 million). The four-week gross is $63 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

I Know What You Did Last Summer Box Office Prediction

Sony hopes horror fans get hooked on the nostalgic scares of I Know What You Did Last Summer on July 18th. It restarts the late 90s franchise that capitalized on Kevin Williamson’s notoriety from Scream (he penned both). Jennifer Kaytin Robinson directs with Madelyn Cline, Chase Sui Wonders, Jonah Hauer-King, Tyriq Winters, Sarah Pidgeon, and Billy Campbell among the cast. Jennifer Love Hewitt and Freddie Prinze Jr. reprise their roles from the features over a quarter century ago.

The teen centric slasher from 1997 was a financial success ($72 million domestically) while 1998 follow-up I Still Know What You Did Last Summer couldn’t measure up with $40 million stateside. This series may not hold the same reverence that Scream does among genre fans. Name brand familiarity could still mean decent grosses.

Tracking has this pegged in the mid to late teens. I think it could go higher in the low 20s, but I’ll go with the expectations.

I Know What You Did Last Summer opening weekend prediction: $17.7 million

For my Smurfs prediction, click here:

Smurfs Box Office Prediction

For my Eddington prediction, click here:

Eddington Box Office Prediction