20th Century Studios is back in the monkey business this weekend with Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. Wes Ball takes over the directorial reins for the 56-year-old franchise with Owen Teague, Freya Allan, Kevin Durand, Peter Macon, and William H. Macy among the cast.
This is the 10th feature in the series and the previous nine entries netted six total Academy nominations. Three of them went to the 1968 original with nods for its Score and Costume Design as well as an honorary Oscar for its revolutionary makeup artist John Chambers.
Following that, there was a long break between awards mentions. None of the four sequels to Planet (Beneath the Planet of the Planet, Escape from the Planet of the Apes, Conquest of the Planet of the Apes, Battle for the Planet of the Apes) contended in any races. Neither did Tim Burton’s 2001 re-imagining of part 1.
It took Rise of the Planet of the Apes in 2011 and sequels Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (2014) and War for the Planet of the Apes (2017) to get back in the Oscar mix. All 3 were up for their fantastic Visual Effects. The win tally was 0 for 3 as they respectively lost to Hugo, Interstellar, and Blade Runner 2049. Despite high praise for Michael Giacchino’s score and Andy Serkis’s lauded motion capture work as Caesar in that trilogy, VE was the only derby that the Apes ran in.
Kingdom (set many years after the events of War) is perched at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s just ahead of Rise‘s 82% while a bit behind War‘s 94% and Dawn‘s 91%. Some reviews say its visuals don’t quite match what we witnessed in the previous decade. Yet this seems poised for a fourth nomination in a row in that competition. Like its predecessors, a victory seems unlikely as Dune: Part Two may already have it wrapped up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our fourth filmmaker in Best Director and that’s Martin Scorsese in Killers of the Flower Moon. Let’s get to it!
Previous Directing Oscar Nominations:
Raging Bull (1980); The Last Temptation of Christ (1988); GoodFellas (1990); Gangs of New York (2002); The Aviator (2004); The Departed (2006, WON); Hugo (2011); The Wolf of Wall Street (2013); The Irishman (2019)
The Case for Martin Scorsese:
Being one of the most celebrated directors in the history of the medium helps. For this epic historical drama, Scorsese nabs a 10th nod for his behind the camera work (moving ahead of Steven Spielberg’s 9). That’s second only to William Wyler’s 12. DGA, Globe, and Critics Choice mentions preceded this.
The Case Against Martin Scorsese:
It’s Christopher Nolan’s year as Oppenheimer glides to a BP crowning. That should easily correlate to this race. Scorsese also missed the BAFTA cut.
The Verdict:
The stats will be 1 for 10 for Marty when it comes to victories as Nolan is taking this.
My Case Of posts will continue with Emma Stone in Poor Things…
All 206 minutes of Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon have been breathlessly awaited by pundits ahead of its Cannes premiere. That occurred today some five months before its domestic release. The crime western reunites the legendary filmmaker with his two most famous and frequent collaborators Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro in this adaptation of David Grann’s 2017 non-fiction novel. Lily Gladstone (in what’s long been pegged as a role with awards potential) costars alongside Jesse Plemons, Brendan Fraser, and John Lithgow.
On paper, Killers has looked like a surefire contender for Oscar glory ever since it was announced. Scorsese has seen five of his past eight films nominated for Best Picture: The Aviator, The Departed (which won), Hugo, The Wolf of Wall Street, and The Irishman. As mentioned, the 1920s set tale of murders among the Osage Nation comes with a runtime that just exceeds its reported $200 million budget. Apple TV footed the bill, but it will see a theatrical bow prior to any streaming release.
Some of the early critical reaction does gripe about the length (same went for Scorsese’s predecessor The Irishman). Yet most reviews indicate this will be the gold player that we assumed. That last Marty movie scored 10 nods. This could match it or even exceed it. Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay (by the director and Eric Roth), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound are all feasible. The early Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at 100%.
As for the acting derbies, Leonardo DiCaprio is drawing raves and should be in line for his seventh acting nom (his sole win being 2015’s The Revenant). There was some question as to whether Gladstone would contend in lead or supporting. The buzz indicates the latter is more likely and it appears she’s a shoo-in for inclusion. I had her at #1 in my ranked predictions a few days ago and that may not change. A bigger question was Supporting Actor. It sounds like the role Jesse Plemons plays is relatively small (popping up in the third act). He could still sneak in (as he did in 2021 for The Power of the Dog). The studio’s campaigners could opt to throw their full attention to De Niro. The 79-year-old new dad looks to grab his eighth nod and first since 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook. You can pencil him in with DiCaprio and Gladstone.
Can you find the nominees in this picture? There could be plenty for Killers of the Flower Moon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Will Smith rather notoriously won his first Best Actor Oscar last year for King Richard. His victory was not a surprise. Smith’s onstage slap of Chris Rock approximately 30 minutes before he received the gold statue was.
The superstar actor’s career has taken a hit since with some canceled or delayed projects. It has not altered the release of Emancipation. The historical action drama casts Smith as slave Whipped Peter, whose Civil War era photograph has become an iconic image. Antoine Fuqua, best known for shoot-em-ups like Olympus Has Fallen and The Equalizer pics, directs. The supporting cast includes Ben Foster, Charmaine Bingwa, Steven Ogg, Mustafa Shakir, and Timothy Hutton.
Emancipation is out in limited fashion tomorrow prior to a December 9th streaming rollout on Apple TV (they paid a whopping $130 million for the rights). The Rotten Tomatoes score is a mixed 63%.
There is praise for the performances, including Smith. An early consensus is that the action works better than some of the dramatic elements. Bottom line: this doesn’t sound line much of an awards contender whether there had been The Slap or no slap. One exception could be Robert Richardson’s cinematography. He’s a three-time winner for JFK, The Aviator, and Hugo. Richardson won’t get a fourth podium trip, but making the cut isn’t out of the question. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
At first glance, even writing an Oscar predictions post for They/Them might seem a little silly. The slasher pic set at a conversion camp premieres on Peacock tomorrow and reunites Kevin Bacon with the bloody genre 42 years after Friday the 13th.
It doesn’t seem as silly considering it’s the directorial debut of John Logan. He also serves as sole writer for the project and he’s a three-time Academy nominee for his penned works: 2000’s Gladiator, 2004’s The Aviator, and 2011’s Hugo.
Yet despite his scripting a trio of Best Picture nominees, reviews for this Blumhouse produced offering are mixed at best. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is currently at 50%. That makes this equation simple as They/Them will nab as many Academy mentions as Friday the 13th. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My third write-up in my Best Picture: Final Five series brings us to 2011. As a reminder, the concept is fairly simple. After 2008, the Academy wanted to broaden the amount of nominees in the big race beyond a set five. For 2009 and 2010, that number was a firm 10.
However, in 2011, the rules changed so that there could be anywhere from 5-10 BP contenders. Until the Academy reverted back to 10 definite hopefuls last year, that number fluctuated between 8-9. For the inaugural year with the changeup, it was 9.
This post series engages in revisionist and speculative history. What if the rule of five BP nominees had never been altered? What would’ve made the cut? What would wind up on the cutting room floor? In 2011, we know it would’ve included the winner – Michel Havanavicius’s French black and white silent dramedy The Artist.
What else? Let’s consider the other eight one by one…
The Descendants
Alexander Payne’s works had received Academy attention before with 2002’s About Schmidt and 2004’s Sideways. This George Clooney led dramedy nabbed four additional mentions for its star, director, editing, and adapted screenplay – where it won.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The screenplay victory and inclusion in key races such as directing and editing seal the deal.
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The rare BP nominee that received only one other nod – Max Von Sydow in Supporting Actor. This was, to be kind, a unique and unexpected nod as Stephen Daldry’s 9/11 themed drama with Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock managed just a 45% Rotten Tomatoes rating as well as subpar box office.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. The fact that it made the final 9 is still pretty shocking and is widely considered an underserving inclusion.
The Help
Based on a huge bestseller, Tate Taylor’s The Help was beloved by audiences to the tune of $169 million at the box office. Beyond Picture, it received three other nods: Actress (Viola Davis), Supporting Actress (Jessica Chastain), and another Supporting Actress nod and win for Octavia Spencer.
Does It Make the Final Five?
It’s awfully tempting to say yes given its popularity, but no. I’d feel more comfortable putting it in the final five had it nabbed a screenplay or editing or directing nod (even just one of them).
Hugo
Martin Scorsese’s family adventure garnered the most nominations on Oscar night (11), one more than The Artist. That includes Director, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Costume Design, Editing, and wins for its Sound Editing and Mixing, Art Direction, Cinematography, and Costume Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes and quite easily with that impressive haul.
Midnight in Paris
This was a critical and commercial comeback for Woody Allen and it won Original Screenplay with additional nods for Allen’s direction and the art direction.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. While he’s basically blackballed from Hollywood in 2022, it was a different story 11 years ago for Allen and the Academy would’ve rewarded him for this return to form.
Moneyball
Bennett Miller followed up Capote with this acclaimed baseball drama that received five additional nominations – Actor (Brad Pitt), Supporting Actor (Jonah Hill), Adapted Screenplay, Sound Mixing, and Editing. It ended up going 0 for 6.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. As I’ve explained before, Picture and Director rarely matched 5/5 before 2009. This is my pick for the BP nominee where the filmmaker didn’t make the cut.
The Tree of Life
Terrence Malick’s arty and ambitious saga served as a comeback for the legendary auteur. In addition to BP, Malick was in the quintet for his direction as was the cinematography.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. It’s not out of the question that it might’ve, but its minimal two other nods cause doubt.
War Horse
Steven Spielberg’s equine related battle flick is one of his least discussed BP contenders, but it did gallop into contention with five other mentions for Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Art Direction, and Cinematography.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Even with the pedigree, missing Editing and Screenplay is a typically dependable telltale sign.
So that means my final five from 2011 consists of:
My Case of posts for Oscar nominees now focuses on the fourth director profiled – Martin Scorsese for The Irishman:
The Case for Martin Scorsese
One of the most acclaimed filmmakers in cinematic history, Scorsese’s epic Netflix gangster drama marks his ninth nomination for Best Director. Previous nods were for Raging Bull, The Last Temptation of Christ, GoodFellas, Gangs of New York, The Aviator, The Departed, Hugo, and The Wolf of Wall Street. If you’re wondering why Taxi Driver isn’t among the pictures included, so am I. His only victory came for The Departed and there’s a feeling that Oscar voters have snubbed him in the past. The Irishman pulled in 10 nominations, which is tied for second with 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
The Case Against Martin Scorsese
The Irishman has gone from a Best Picture front runner to a serious long shot. This is thanks mostly to 1917 and Parasite. Therefore the Best Director derby is now seen as a battle between Sam Mendes and Bong Joon-Ho.
The Verdict
Scorsese’s win total will almost certainly be 1/9 after Sunday night as his movie’s hopes have faded in this and other categories.
My Case of posts will continue with Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood!
Continuing with my Oscar series outlining the cases for and against nominees in the top six categories, we arrive at Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. This is my second of (gulp) 34 posts for films and individuals picked in the Picture, Director, and the acting races. If you missed yesterday’s writeup about Ford v Ferrari, you can find it here:
Scorsese’s latest is an epic unification of screen legends Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci in the genre they’re known best for… the gangster tale. The three and a half hour opus certainly has awards gravitas. It was pegged as a likely nominee from the moment it was announced. Both Pacino and Pesci were named in Supporting Actor and the pic sports 10 nominations, which is tied for second along with 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Scorsese is obviously a legendary figure and this is his ninth effort to get a Picture nod (the only winner being 2006’s The Departed).
The critics have been on its side and it has a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score. Several critics group named it as the year’s best.
The Case Against The Irishman
That attention has not translated to the big awards shows yet. The Golden Globes surprised most when they picked 1917 over this in Best Drama. The Critics Choice Awards chose Hollywood. Some have griped about its length. De Niro, unlike Pacino and Pesci, couldn’t manage a nod with the Globes, SAG, or the Academy. And then there’s the still unsettled notion that the Academy could have a Netflix problem, despite the streamer leading this year’s studios in total number of nominations. In 2018, Roma appeared to be the front runner until that Netflix property lost to Green Book.
The Verdict
There was little doubt that The Irishman would garner plenty of attention in various categories, including here. Yet viability as a winner is much in question. Scorsese’s latest could still take the top prize, but it appears to be a bit of a long shot at the moment.
The biggest Oscar domino not yet fall screened has been Martin Scorsese’s TheIrishman, the three and a half hour gangster drama headlined by genre legends Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci. That changed today. The epic opened the New York Film Festival exactly two months ahead of its Netflix debut. And – no real surprise here – it appears to be a serious contender.
TheIrishman is said to be both a humorous and contemplative piece with De Niro and Pacino providing their best performances in years. Same goes for Pesci as he’s been away from the silver screen for nearly a decade.
While nearly all reviews are positive, they’re not all raves. My early hunch is that this will earn Picture and Director nods. Winning is another story and that is one still left to play out. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 100%. This will likely mark Scorsese’s ninth nomination (he’s won once for 2006’s TheDeparted). That’s also his only effort to be named Best Picture. The Adapted Screenplay from Steve Zaillian should also make the final cut.
Down the line recognition presents many chances including Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, and Visual Effects. For the latter, the de-aging technology that allows its stars to look younger could attract the notice of that branch. The pic would actually be the second Scorsese title to get a Visual Effects nod after 2011’s Hugo (which won).
Now to the thespians. The thinking is that De Niro will be in lead actor with Pacino and Pesci in supporting. It sounds as if they will be the trio in contention. De Niro would gunning for his eighth appearance as a nominee. He won Supporting for 1974’s TheGodfatherPartII and lead in Scorsese’s 1980 masterwork RagingBull. I’ve had him listed in spot #6 for some time in my weekly rankings. I could still see him missing the cut as his role is said to be less flashy than his costars, but I think his chances are better today. Numerous critics have stated that Pacino steals the show and he’s going for nomination #9 (his sole win is 1992’s ScentofaWoman). Like De Niro, I’ve had him slotted sixth and I expect him to enter the top five in a supporting actor race that is already jam packed. As for Pesci (who won for 1990’s Scorsese classic GoodFellas), other reviewers are singling him out. That opens the door for two men to be nominated in the supporting race for the second time since 1991 when Harvey Keitel (who’s also in this) and Ben Kingsley were recognized for Bugsy. This occurred again two years ago with Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Pesci is not the near sure thing Pacino is, but it could happen.
Bottom line: TheIrishman did what it needed to do in the Big Apple to establish itself as a player in awards chatter. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
A few weeks ago, I posted look backs at major categories at the Oscars from 1990 to the present. I’ve covered all four acting races and if you missed it, you can peruse them here:
In each post, I review what I’d classify as the three least surprising winners, as well as the three biggest upsets. And I select what I believe are the strongest and weakest overall fields.
Today on the blog, we arrive at the Big Daddy – Best Picture. It’s important to remember that hindsight doesn’t come into play here. For instance, ForrestGump won the top prize in 1994. Since then, many believe fellow nominees PulpFiction or TheShawshankRedemption should have won. Yet the Gump victory was not an upset at the time. Same goes for 1990 when DanceswithWolves bested GoodFellas.
Let’s begin with a reminder of each winner since 1990:
1990 – DanceswithWolves
1991 – TheSilenceoftheLambs
1992 – Unforgiven
1993 – Schindler’sList
1994 – ForrestGump
1995 – Braveheart
1996 – TheEnglishPatient
1997 – Titanic
1998 – ShakespeareinLove
1999 – AmericanBeauty
2000 – Gladiator
2001 – ABeautifulMind
2002 – Chicago
2003 – LordoftheRings: ReturnoftheKing
2004 – MillionDollarBaby
2005 – Crash
2006 – TheDeparted
2007 – NoCountryforOldMen
2008 – SlumdogMillionaire
2009 – TheHurtLocker
2010 – TheKing’sSpeech
2011 – TheArtist
2012 – Argo
2013 – 12YearsaSlave
2014 – Birdman
2015 – Spotlight
2016 – Moonlight
2017 – TheShapeofWater
We start with my three least surprising winners:
3. LordoftheRings: ReturnoftheKing (2003)
Peter Jackson’s final entry in the acclaimed trilogy seemed due for a win after the first two installments were nominated, but lost to ABeautifulMind and Chicago. This was as much a recognition for the entire franchise and by 2003, it was obvious the Academy would move in that direction.
2. Titanic (1997)
James Cameron’s epic was plagued with rumors of a troubled shoot and the possibility seemed real that it could be a costly flop. The opposite occurred as Titanic became the highest grossing motion picture of all time upon its release. It seemed clear that Oscar love would follow.
1. Schindler’sList (1993)
Capping an amazing year which saw Steven Spielberg direct JurassicPark over the summer, his Holocaust feature Schindler’sList became the undeniable front-runner at its end of year release. Winning all significant precursors, this was a shoo-in selection.
Now to the upsets. In my view, there were four very real ones and I had to leave one out. That would be 1995 when Braveheart emerged victorious over the favored Apollo13 and SenseandSensibility. Yet there’s 3 others that I feel top it.
3. Moonlight (2016)
LaLaLand appeared ready to pick up the gold after its filmmaker Damien Chazelle and lead actress Emma Stone had already won. And it looked like the script was being followed when Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway actually announced the musical as Best Picture. Perhaps Oscar’s largest controversy followed as the wrong envelope was given and the Barry Jenkins effort Moonlight had actually won. Correct envelopes or not, the Moonlight victory was still unexpected given the La La momentum.
2. ShakespeareinLove (1998)
All eyes were on Spielberg’s World War II epic SavingPrivateRyan to win as Spielberg had already picked up his second statue for directing. Shakespeare rewrote that script and few saw it coming.
1. Crash (2005)
Here is perhaps the most surprising BP winner in history. Ang Lee’s BrokebackMountain was the strong favorite when the Paul Haggis race relations drama took it. Even presenter Jack Nicholson looked shocked when he read the envelope.
And now the fields. That’s a bit tough because just under a decade ago, the Academy switched from five finite nominees to anywhere between five and ten (nine being the most common). For weakest, I’m going with 2011 when there were 9. While there’s some quality picks like TheArtist, TheDescendants, Hugo, MidnightinParis, Moneyball, and TheTreeofLife – I feel even some of them might have missed the cut in stronger years. And I think that certainly applies to ExtremelyLoud&IncrediblyClose, TheHelp, and WarHorse.
For strongest, I will go with the aforementioned 1994. PulpFiction and Shawshank are indeed two of the most impressive cinematic contributions in recent times. Winner Gump and other nominees QuizShow and FourWeddingsandaFuneral filled out the slate.
And that does it, folks! Hope you enjoyed my look back at Best Picture in modern times.
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