Opening tomorrow, crime thriller Dead of Winter is set in the frozen Minnesotan tundra with a high profile actress headlining. Other than the accents, that might be where the Fargo comparisons stop. Brian Kirk directs Emma Thompson as a widow who happens upon a kidnapping plot. Judy Greer, Marc Menchaca, Laurel Marsden and Brian F. O’Byrne provide support.
The majority of reviews are not cold, but also not raves. Rotten Tomatoes is at 75% with 67 on Metacritic. Critics are appreciative of Thompson (a 1992 Best Actress winner for Howards End) and Greer playing against type. Winter is keeping a low profile and don’t expect awards bodies to warm up to it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
From 1992-1995, Emma Thompson scored a remarkable five Oscar nominations – winning twice. The first was for her lead role in 1992’s Howards End. The second was a screenplay win for 1995’s Sense and Sensibility. The other three nods were for The Remains of the Day and Sensibility (both lead) and supporting for In the Name of the Father.
In the quarter century plus since, the Academy has yet to call her name again. That could change with Good Luck to You, Leo Grande which premiered at Sundance. From director Sophie Hyde, the comedic drama finds Thompson as a retiree who enlists the services of a sex worker (Daryl McCormack of Peaky Blinders).
Early reviews are hailing the performances of both leads. With the right eventual distributor, I wouldn’t be surprised if Thompson in particular is in the mix for awards attention. If Oscar doesn’t bite, she could at least be in line for a Best Actress nod in the Musical/Comedy category at next year’s Golden Globes. Thompson made the cut with HFPA in 2019 for Late Night and the buzz for Grande might be larger. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…
Back at it again with my look back at major Oscar races from 1990 to the present! We’ve arrived at Best Actress. If you missed my previous posts covering the Supporting performers, you can find them here:
As I did with those posts, I’m selecting my top 3 least surprising winners and top 3 upsets. I’m also giving you my personal pick for strongest and weakest fields from the past 28 years.
For starters, here’s the list of winners from 1990 to now:
1990 – Kathy Bates, Misery
1991 – Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs
1992 – Emma Thompson, Howards End
1993 – Holly Hunter, The Piano
1994 – Jessica Lange, Blue Sky
1995 – Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking
1996 – Frances McDormand, Fargo
1997 – Helen Hunt, As Good As It Gets
1998 – Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love
1999 – Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry
2000 – Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
2001 – Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball
2002 – Nicole Kidman, The Hours
2003 – Charlize Theron, Monster
2004 – Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
2005 – Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
2006 – Helen Mirren, The Queen
2007 – Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
2008 – Kate Winslet, The Reader
2009 – Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
2010 – Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2011 – Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
2012 – Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2013 – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2014 – Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2015 – Brie Larson, Room
2016 – Emma Stone, La La Land
2017 – Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
When it comes to Best Actress, I must say it’s probably the race with the least amount of genuine upsets. Nearly every year, there’s a pretty strong front-runner and they win – even more so than in Actor and the Supporting players. Of many non-surprises, here’s my top ones:
3. Holly Hunter, The Piano
Hunter’s work as a mute piano player in Jane Campion’s period piece was the clear favorite over significant competition that included Angela Bassett in What’s Love Got to Do With It? and the previous year’s winner Emma Thompson in The Remains of the Day.
2. Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
One of Hollywood’s biggest stars had already received nods for Steel Magnolias and Pretty Woman and there was little question that Brockovich would earn Roberts her first and only (so far) trip to the Oscar stage.
1. Charlize Theron, Monster
Theron’s metamorphosis into serial killer Aileen Wuornos swept all precursors. The rest of the field was also fairly weak that year, making her the obvious victor.
And now the “upsets”…
3. Kate Winslet, The Reader
While not a surprise when she won Oscar night, the multi-nominated Winslet was expected for much of the year to get a nod for Revolutionary Road instead. Yet it was this Stephen Daldry drama that was selected instead.
2. Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
This was a two-way contest between Cotillard and veteran Julie Christie for Away from Her, with many believing the latter had the edge. It didn’t turn out that way.
1. Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry and Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
This #1 comes with a caveat. It wasn’t much of an upset by the time Swank won her double Oscars. What’s interesting here is that she single-handedly denied two prime opportunities for the winless Annette Bening to get a statue for American Beauty and Being Julia.
We move to the fields. For weakest field, I’m selecting 1994 when Jessica Lange won for the little-seen Blue Sky. Other nominees were Jodie Foster in Nell, Miranda Richardson in Tom&Viv, Winona Ryder for Little Women, and Susan Sarandon in The Client.
Strongest group in my opinion goes to 2010 with Natalie Portman’s victorious role in Black Swan. The rest of that impressive field is Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence’s first nomination in Winter’s Bone, and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine).
Today begins a new blog series where I’m looking back at five of the major Oscar categories from 1990 to the present: the four acting races and Best Picture. This is essentially the time period where I’ve closely watched and analyzed. My charge? Picking the three largest upsets in each said category and the three least surprising winners… a film or performer where it truly would have been a shock if they didn’t emerge victorious.
We begin with Best Supporting Actress and this is one in which there have been some genuine upsets over the past quarter century plus. Unlike some other races we’ll get to later, it was not a challenge to pick three unexpected winners.
The other agenda item here is I’m picking my personal selections for strongest and weakest overall field among the five nominees in the acting derby’s and five-ten for Best Picture.
For starters, here’s the list of women that won gold statues in the supporting race from 1990 to now:
1990 – Whoopi Goldberg, Ghost
1991 – Mercedes Ruehl, TheFisherKing
1992 – Marisa Tomei, MyCousinVinny
1993 – Anna Paquin, ThePiano
1994 – Dianne Wiest, BulletsOverBroadway
1995 – Mira Sorvino, MightyAphrodite
1996 – Juliette Binoche, TheEnglishPatient
1997 – Kim Basinger, L.A. Confidential
1998 – Judi Dench, ShakespeareinLove
1999 – Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted
2000 – Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock
2001 – Jennifer Connelly, ABeautifulMind
2002 – Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
2003 – Renee Zellweger, ColdMountain
2004 – Cate Blanchett, TheAviator
2005 – Rachel Weisz, TheConstantGardner
2006 – Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
2007 – Tilda Swinton, MichaelClayton
2008 – Penelope Cruz, VickyChristinaBarcelona
2009 – Mo’Nique, Precious
2010 – Melissa Leo, TheFighter
2011 – Octavia Spencer, TheHelp
2012 – Anne Hathaway, LesMiserables
2013 – Lupita Nyong’o, 12YearsaSlave
2014 – Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2015 – Alicia Vikander, TheDanishGirl
2016 – Viola Davis, Fences
2017 – Allison Janney, I, Tonya
I’ll begin with the least surprising winners. Truthfully, there are plenty of selections (and will be in each race) to pick from here. It’s normal procedure for the front runner to actually win. Here’s three that did just that:
3. Dianne Wiest, BulletsOverBroadway
Of the 28 recipients to choose from, note that 3 of them were under the direction of Woody Allen. None were surprise winners. That’s most evident with Wiest’s showcase work as an aging diva here. Her win here came just eight years following her Oscar winning role in another Allen pic, HannahandHerSisters.
2. Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Fans of the Broadway play this is based upon knew Ms. Hudson could have a legitimate breakthrough part here. She nailed it and her win was never in much doubt.
1. Anne Hathaway, LesMiserables
Similar to Hudson’s victory, Hathaway’s casting as Fantine and her “I Dreamed a Dream” dramatic solo made her the odds-on favorite from the moment the project was announced. That never changed.
Now we get to the upsets and there were four to choose from. I could easily include Anna Paquin in ThePiano, who became the second youngest winner when she beat out favorite Winona Ryder for TheAgeofInnocence. Here’s 3 I rank as even more surprising:
3. Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock
Harden had won no significant precursors and Kate Hudson was expected to have her name called for AlmostFamous. She wasn’t even nominated for a Golden Globe or SAG.
2. Juliette Binoche, TheEnglishPatient
While the film itself was the anticipated winner for Picture (which it did), the Oscars were expected to select the legendary Lauren Bacall for her work in Barbra Streisand’s TheMirrorHasTwoFaces. Yet it was Binoche’s performance that was unexpectedly honored.
1. Marisa Tomei, MyCousinVinny
For starters, comedic roles are rarely nominated and wins are even more unheard of. Tomei was a newcomer in a picture that wasn’t a factor in any other category. Her competition was a list of venerable actresses: Judy Davis (HusbandsandWives), Joan Plowright (EnchantedApril), Vanessa Redgrave (HowardsEnd), and Miranda Richardson (Damages). The victory here was so shocking that conspiracy theories emerged that presenter Jack Palance had accidentally read the wrong name. That’s been debunked, but Tomei’s trip to the stage remains one of Oscar’s largest jaw droppers.
As for the fields, I’m going with 1991 for the weakest link in the chain. I probably would have given the award to Juliette Lewis in CapeFear. However, the group was not particularly strong:
Mercedes Ruehl, TheFisherKing (Winner)
Diane Ladd, RamblingRose
Juliette Lewis, CapeFear
Kate Nelligan, ThePrinceofTides
Jessica Tandy, FriedGreenTomatoes
For the strongest field overall, I went with 2004 when Cate Blanchett won for her portrayal of Katherine Hepburn in Martin Scorsese’s TheAviator. The other nominees:
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Sophie Okonedo, HotelRwanda
Natalie Portman, Closer
And there you have it! I’ll have Supporting Actor up soon…
In 2009, the Academy underwent a change in the number of Best Picture nominees honored each year. The rule change allowed a fluctuation of five to ten nominees per year, as opposed to a finite five (all other categories stayed at that number).
As has been discussed on this blog, many felt the change was triggered by 2008’s The Dark Knight, the critically acclaimed comic book pic that was also highest earner of the year. It failed to a garner a Best Picture nod and the thinking was that it was time for more popular options to make it into the mix.
Since the change, the magic number has been nine nominated pictures in most years. This got me thinking: what if that rule had been in effect during prior years? What movies that failed to get a nomination would have certainly made it?
That brings us here. I have gone back to 1990 through 2008 and I’m listing two films from each year that I am confident would have made the shortlist. In selecting each title, here were some of the key indicators. If a Director was nominated for his work and the film failed to get nominated, that probably means it would have been included. Additionally, the screenplay races are a decent predictor of some titles that might have made the magic nine (or eight or ten). For reference sake, I am including the five movies that did get nominated.
So here goes! Two features from 1990-2008 that coulda and likely woulda been contenders…
1990
The Actual Nominees: Dances with Wolves (Winner), Awakenings, Ghost, The Godfather Part III, GoodFellas
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The Grifters, Reversal of Fortune
1991
The Actual Nominees: The Silence of the Lambs (W), Beauty and the Beast, Bugsy, JFK, The Prince of Tides
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Boyz N The Hood, Thelma & Louise
1992
The Actual Nominees: Unforgiven (W), The Crying Game, A Few Good Men, Howards End, Scent of a Woman
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Malcolm X, The Player
1993
The Actual Nominees: Schindler’s List (W), The Fugitive, In the Name of the Father, The Piano, The Remains of the Day
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Philadelphia, Short Cuts
1994
The Actual Nominees: Forrest Gump (W), Four Weddings and a Funeral, Pulp Fiction, Quiz Show, The Shawshank Redemption
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Bullets Over Broadway, Three Colors: Red
1995
The Actual Nominees: Braveheart (W), Apollo 13, Babe, Il Postino, Sense and Sensibility
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Dead Man Walking, Leaving Las Vegas
1996
The Actual Nominees: The English Patient (W), Fargo, Jerry Maguire, Secrets & Lies, Shine
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The People Vs. Larry Flynt, Sling Blade
1997
The Actual Nominees: Titanic (W), As Good as It Gets, The Full Monty, Good Will Huinting, L.A. Confidential
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Boogie Nights, The Sweet Hereafter
1998
The Actual Nominees: Shakespeare in Love (W), Elizabeth, Life is Beautiful, Saving Private Ryan, The Thin Red Line
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Gods and Monsters, The Truman Show
1999
The Actual Nominees: American Beauty (W), The Cider House Rules, The Green Mile, The Insider, The Sixth Sense
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Being John Malkovich, Topsy-Turvy
2000
The Actual Nominees: Gladiator (W), Chocolat, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Erin Brockovich, Traffic
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Almost Famous, Billy Elliot
2001
The Actual Nominees: A Beautiful Mind (W), Gosford Park, In the Bedroom, Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge!
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Black Hawk Down, Mulholland Drive
2002
The Actual Nominees: Chicago (W), Gangs of New York, The Hours, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, The Pianist
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Far from Heaven, Talk to Her
2003
The Actual Nominees: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (W), Lost in Translation, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Mystic River, Seabiscuit
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: City of God, In America
2004
The Actual Nominees: Million Dollar Baby (W), The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Ray, Sideways
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Hotel Rwanda, Vera Drake
2005
The Actual Nominees: Crash (W), Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Syriana, Walk the Line
2006
The Actual Nominees: The Departed (W), Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Pan’s Labyrinth, United 93
2007
The Actual Nominees: No Country for Old Men (W), Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Away from Her, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
2008
The Actual Nominees: Slumdog Millionaire (W), The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The Dark Knight, Doubt
And there you have it! There will be a part II to this post. What if the rule change had never occurred? From 2009 until the present, what would have been the five nominated Pictures if only that number was allowed. Stay tuned…
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