We are just two days into the new year, but it’s already time for my first Oscar Watch post of 2019. That’s because HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld comes out in Australia tomorrow before its stateside release on February 22. Early reviews are out and the third and final installment of the Dreamworks Animation franchise is receiving solid ones. The action fantasy sequel stands at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
In 2010, the original Dragon nabbed a Best Animated Feature nod at the Oscars. Four years later, part 2 accomplished the same. Both pictures lost to titles coming from the mighty Mouse Factory – ToyStory3 and BigHero6, respectively. The Disney competition will be fierce this year with ToyStory4 and Frozen2.
That said, even at this extraordinarily early date, the latest Dragon already looks like a serious contender for a nomination given the history of the series. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Most years on the Fourth of July holiday weekend, we see a massive tent pole picture making its debut, but this year it’s different. Three new pictures – the Melissa McCarthy comedy Tammy, horror flick Deliver Us from Evil, and kiddie pic Earth to Echo all debut on Wednesday and will each attempt to compete with the sophomore weekend of Transformers: Age of Extinction. You can read my detailed predictions on the holiday newbies here:
While I’m predicting solid results for Tammy, OK results for Evil, and disappointing returns for Echo, it’s highly unlikely anything will manage to dislodge Transformers from the top spot. Therefore the Michael Bay robofest should be the first summer 2014 picture to stay #1 for two weeks straight.
And with that, my estimated top six for the fireworks frame (with five-day predictions for the new entries included):
1. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Predicted Gross: $42.2 million (representing a drop of 57%)
2. Tammy
Predicted Gross: $27.3 million ($42.9 million prediction from Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Deliver Us from Evil
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million ($20.6 million prediction from Wednesday to Sunday)
4. 22 Jump Street
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 44%)
5. Earth to Echo
Predicted Gross: $8 million ($12.3 million prediction from Wednesday to Sunday)
6. How To Train Your Dragon 2
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)
Box Office Results (June 27-29)
Transformers: Age of Extinction was able to reach the biggest opening weekend so far in 2014 with exactly $100 million (leading some rival studios to question the accuracy of that number). This was right in the range of $98.6 million projection. While this is certainly a fine opening, there is a very good chance Extinction could end up being the lowest domestic grosser of the series thus far.
Staying in the #2 spot was 22 Jump Street with $15.8 million (above my $14.2M prediction) and the comedy hit’s three-week total stands at $140 million. Animated sequel How to Train Your Dragon 2 was third in its third weekend with $13.2 million, right in line with my $13M estimate. The disappointing family flick has earned nearly $122 million and will fall far short of its predecessor’s $217M haul. Keeping with the sequel frenzy, Kevin Hart’s Think Like a Man Too dropped from first to fourth with a hefty 64% plunge and a gross $10.3 million (below my $13.8M prediction). Rounding out the top six were holdovers Maleficent with $8.3 million (I said $8.2M) and Jersey Boys with $7.7 million (I said $7.8M).
With a surprisingly serious dearth of animated features for the kiddos this summer, DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon 2 appears poised to breathe some fire into the box office when it opens Friday. Opening ultra-wide on approximately 4,100 screens, Dragon 2 is the sequel to the 2010 original that grossed $43.7 million in its March debut on its way to a $217 million domestic haul. The numbers for the sequel are expected to be quite higher and its premiere could easily double the first weekend of its predecessor.
Featuring the voices of Jay Baruchel, America Ferrera, Jonah Hill, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Kristen Wiig and Cate Blanchett – Dragon so far stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and it’ll surely be a candidate for Best Animated Feature come Oscar time. While summer 2013 saw a slew of animated features vying for attention, this season is different. How to Train Your Dragon 2 is really the only game in town with just Planes: Fire&Rescue coming in mid July. With a lack of the usual genre fare for family audiences, their demographic should flock to this.
A legit question is whether this could challenge Captain America: The Winter Soldier‘s $95 million debut which still stands as 2014’s highest. I don’t think it’ll quite get there, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me. I’ll predict it gets just past double what the first did out of the gate and it should have healthy legs in subsequent weekends.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 opening weekend prediction: $88.7 million
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