Netflix has put out Fixed this week and it marks the first R rated animation effort from Sony. Genndy Tartakovsky, best known for helming the Hotel Transylvania franchise, directs. The voice cast for the tale of a dog about to be neutered includes Adam DeVine, Idris Elba, Kathryn Hahn, Fred Armisen, Beck Bennett, and Bobby Moynihan.
Originally set for distribution by Warner Bros until they cut it loose, Netflix picked up the rights and reviews are mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 63% with Metacritic at only 51. If Sausage Party couldn’t break into the Academy’s Animated Feature quintet with better marks, that leaves little hope for this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Dreamworks returns to the September animation game next weekend with Abominable. The kiddie adventure comes from director Jill Culton and features the voices of Chloe Bennet, Albert Tsai, Sarah Paulson, and Eddie Izzard. It premiered days ago at the Toronto Film Festival to mostly solid reviews and sports a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 89%.
As mentioned, September (especially the later part of the month) has been fertile ground for animated features. While the HotelTransylvania and CloudywithaChanceofMeatballs franchises have seen debuts above $30 and $40 million, there’s also been several with starts in the $20-$25 million range. This includes OpenSeason (which Culton also made), Storks, TheLegoNinjagoMovie, and last year’s Smallfoot.
That’s precisely where I see Abominable landing and probably on the lower end of that scale.
Abominable opening weekend prediction: $20.7 million
Adam Sandler’s animated franchise is back in theaters next weekend when HotelTransylvania3: SummerVacation debuts. The Sony Pictures series moves to the summer season after its first two entries managed to set records in the month of September. While its star’s live-action efforts have gone the Netflix route, part 3 looks to score with family audiences in a more crowded marketplace than the parts I and II went up against.
Genndy Tartakovsky is back in the director’s chair. Besides Sandler, returning voices include Andy Samberg, Selena Gomez, Kevin James, David Spade, Steve Buscemi, Keegan-Michael Key, Molly Shannon, Fran Drescher, Mel Brooks and newcomers Kathryn Hahn and Jim Gaffigan.
As mentioned, kids and their parents have been receptive to this 3D monster mash on two occasions. In September 2012, the original premiered to $42.5 million with eventual domestic earnings of $148 million. That set the all-time largest debut for that month. Three years later, HotelTransylvania2 opened in September 2015 and made $48.4 out of the gate to break the month’s record held by its predecessor. It ended up at $169 million. The series held the 1-2 September spot until last year when It obliterated the record.
When it comes to competition for eyeballs, Incredibles2 should be winding down though still grossing in the mid to possibly high teens. Marvel’s Ant–ManandtheWasp will only be in its second weekend and likely going strong. That said, Transylvania has proven itself before and I imagine it too will manage a low to mid 40s start even with the change of seasons. By doing so, that should put it in line for the #1 spot over Ant–Man and the debut of Dwayne Johnson’s Skyscraper.
HotelTransylvania3: SummerVacation opening weekend prediction: $43.6 million
Warner Bros keeps the onslaught of animated titles being delivered to theaters going with Storks, opening next weekend. The comedic adventure comes from Nicholas Stoller and Doug Sweetland. Mr. Stroller is known for his live-action genre titles like Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Get Him to the Greek, and the Neighbors franchise. The pic features the voices of Andy Samberg, Jennifer Aniston, Keegan-Michael Key, Jordan Peele, Kelsey Grammer, and Ty Burrell.
2016 has been a banner year for animated material with mega-hits like Zootopia, Finding Dory, and The Secret Life of Pets and critically acclaimed fare like Kubo and the Two Strings and Sausage Party. With all those titles mentioned, it’s a distinct possibility that an animated feature will really have to stand out now for family audiences to plunk down their dollars. Whether Storks fits that bill is a legit question.
September has been an occasionally fruitful month for the genre. Hotel Transylvania and its sequel are responsible for the month’s two largest openings at $42 and $48 million, respectively. The two Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs flicks both opened above $30 million. Warner Bros should be ecstatic if Storks manages those numbers.
I don’t believe this will quite reach that level and a debut in the mid to high 20s seems more probable.
Storks opening weekend prediction: $27.9 million
For my The Magnificent Seven prediction, click here:
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