Tag: Horror

A Quiet Place: Day One Box Office Prediction

Michael Sarnoski, director of Pig, takes over a highly profitable horror franchise from John Krasinski with A Quiet Place: Day One. Paramount is hoping the prequel continues to bring home the bacon. With Krasinski (who just released the family friendly IF) and spouse Emily Blunt (recently in The Fall Guy) out of the mix, Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, Alex Wolff, and Djimon Hounsou (a returnee from the second entry) headline.

In the spring of 2018, A Quiet Place made loud noises at multiplexes with a $50 million beginning and $188 million overall domestic haul. The 2021 sequel (delayed a year due to the pandemic) earned $48 million out of the gate with $160 million total stateside.

Scary movies have seen underwhelming premieres for the most part in 2024. Day One should be an exception. That said, I don’t see a compelling reason why this would significantly top its predecessors. A $50 million plus debut is possible. I suspect it will fall in line with its predecessor from three years ago in the mid to high 40s range.

A Quiet Place: Day One opening weekend prediction: $46.3 million

For my Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 prediction, click here:

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction

For my Kinds of Kindness prediction, click here:

Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction

The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Update (06/20): We have yet to even see a theater count for The Exorcism so I’m downgrading my estimate from $6.2 million to $3.2 million

The Exorcism looks to quench the moviegoing public’s thirst for mixing Russell Crowe with demonic possessions on June 21st. The horror flick arrives only a year behind the lead playing The Pope’s Exorcist. Those two pics aren’t related as Joshua John Miller directs with a supporting cast including Ryan Simpkins, Sam Worthington, Chloe Bailey, Adam Goldberg, Adrian Padsar, and David Hyde Pierce.

In April of 2023, The Pope’s Exorcist managed to open at the higher end of its expected range with a little over $9 million and an eventual $20 million gross. It is fair to wonder if genre enthusiasts are pining for another helping of its star and subject matter.

Scary movies have struggled in 2024 and this might need divine intervention to exceed $10 million for its start. I doubt it will.

The Exorcism opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my The Bikeriders prediction, click here:

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction

The Watchers Box Office Prediction

Horror flicks have seen mostly subpar returns in 2024 and the offspring of a genre mainstay attempts to turn that around with The Watchers on June 7th. Ishana Night Shyamalan, daughter of M., makes her directorial debut with the supernatural tale. Based on a novel by A.M. Shine, it stars Dakota Fanning, Georgina Campbell, Oliver Finnegan, and Olwen Fouéré.

Getting to an opening in the low teens has been a challenge for scary movies in the last few weeks. Recent examples include Abigail which made just over $10 million and The Strangers: Chapter 1 with $12 million.

Perhaps the family name could push this over $13 million. Dad serves as a producer and has his own project Trap out in August. I’ll say this doesn’t quite reach the teen and just clears double digits.

The Watchers opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million

For my Bad Boys: Ride or Die prediction, click here:

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Box Office Prediction

The Strangers: Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction

Three and a half decades ago, Renny Harlin helmed the horror sequel A Nightmare on Elm Street 4: The Dream Master. He’s back in the genre with The Strangers: Chapter 1 on May 17th. It is the third feature in the franchise and the first of a trilogy that are all slated to hit multiplexes this year. Madelaine Petsch (best known for Riverdale), Froy Gutierrez, Rachel Shenton, Gabriel Basso, and Ema Horvath star.

In late May of 2008, The Strangers was a sleeper hit with a $20.9 million debut and $54.5 million overall domestic gross. A decade later, follow-up The Strangers: Prey at Night suffered diminished returns with a $10.4 million start and $24.3 million total.

Lionsgate is taking a gamble with their release strategy of chapter 2 and 3 shortly following. There’s a decent chance it won’t pay off. Scary movies have struggled in 2024. Titles like Night Swim, Imaginary, Immaculate, The First Omen, Abigail, and Tarot have either barely topped $10 million or come in below that figure. I figure The Strangers may experience a similar fate.

The Strangers: Chapter 1 opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million

For my IF prediction, click here:

IF Box Office Prediction

For my Back to Black prediction, click here:

Back to Black Box Office Prediction

Tarot Box Office Prediction

Based on the early 90s novel Horrorscope from Nicholas Adams, Tarot is the latest scary movie hoping to bring in genre enthusiasts. Spenser Cohen and Anna Halberg share directorial duties with a cast including Harriet Slater, Adain Bradley, Avantika Vandanapu, Wolfgang Novogratz, and Jacob Batalon.

Moviegoers have been caught in a web of horror titles over the last several weeks. From Imaginary to The First Omen to Abigail, grosses have been unimpressive as all three of those pics have debuted in the $8-10 million range.

Tarot might be lucky to do that. Plenty of potential viewers will be preoccupied with The Fall Guy. That’s in addition to the aforementioned oversaturated market as of late. I say mid single digits is (yes…) in the cards.

Tarot opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million

For my The Fall Guy prediction, click here:

The Fall Guy Box Office Prediction

For my Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phant0m Menace re-release prediction, click here:

Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace Re-Release Box Office Prediction

Abigail Review

From Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett (the filmmakers known as Radio Silence), Abigail sautés between a crime thriller and vampire tale. It doesn’t completely land that From Dusk til Dawn style jump off and it overstays its welcome. There are lively breaks in the gory repetition and that’s thanks to some quality casting.

The title character is a young girl (played by Alisha Weir) who we first see practicing her ballet moves in an empty theater. She’s being tailed by six criminals engaged in a snatching plot. They succeed in the abduction, at least theoretically. The mastermind behind the taking (Giancarlo Esposito) provides a creepy old house for them to hold Abigail for 24 hours until the ransom is met. The operation has a strict no real names policy (think Reservoir Dogs), so the group is named after Rat Packers. Melissa Barrera is Joey and she’s tasked with being Abigail’s sole point of contact. We quickly figure out she kidnaps with kindness and is our heroine. She also has a drug problem and might’ve abandoned her son, but she’s rather virtuous compared to the lot.

That includes former detective Frank (Dan Stevens, clearly having a ball and looking a bit like Bradley Cooper), spoiled brat and computer hacker Sammy (Kathryn Newton), and demented getaway driver Dean (Angus Cloud). Low IQ muscleman Peter (Kevin Durand) and Marine Rickles (Will Catlett) complete the sextet.

The young captor doesn’t waste much time engaging in mind games with the unwelcome house guests. In what might have been a juicy twist if the trailer and ads hadn’t clearly spelled it out, she’s a bloodsucker who has been around much longer than her appearance suggests. As if that weren’t enough, she has a father whose name sends chills down the spine of those who hear it.

Abigail should be more of a guilty pleasure than it is. There are times when it flourishes. Stevens steals the show while Barrera is saddled with a semi-serious and boring backstory. Some of the exaggerated violence is reminiscent of Radio Silence’s Ready or Not from 2019. That can be a good thing though it’s a reminder that the pic five years ago was superior. Alisha Weir’s performance is certainly a plus as she switches up the cadence of a preteen and a centuries old devourer of souls.

Despite some clever moves, this ultimately stalls in the third act and takes a while to ramp up in the first place. Its bucket of blood falls on the half empty side a little too often.

**1/2 (out of four)

Abigail Box Office Prediction

Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett, makers of Ready or Not and the last two Scream installments, are in vampiric mode with Abigail on April 19th. Reimagining 1936’s Dracula’s Daughter, the horror flick stars Melissa Barrera (also of the latest Scream entries), Dan Stevens, Alisha Weir, Kathryn Newton, William Catlett, Kevin Durand, the late Angus Cloud, Matthew Goode, and Giancarlo Esposito.

Genre fans have had plenty to feast on in 2024. Just last weekend, we saw The First Omen struggle to bring audiences in with an opening under $10 million despite solid reviews. Abigail is generating appreciative notices as well with a current 82% RT rating.

I suspect Abigail will cross $10 million, but $20 million (or even $15 million) seems like a bridge too far.

Abigail opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million

For my The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare prediction, click here:

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare Box Office Prediction

For my Spy x Family Code: White prediction, click here:

Spy x Family Code: White Box Office Prediction

The First Omen Box Office Prediction

Despite being a well-known horror series that’s been around for nearly half a century, The First Omen is the first franchise entry in nearly two decades. Serving as a prequel to the 1976 original, Arkasha Stevenson makes her directorial debut with a cast including Nell Tiger Free, Tawfeek Barhom, Sônia Braga, Ralph Ineson, and Bill Nighy.

Genre fans have had plenty to feast on lately from Immaculate to Imaginary to Late Night with the Devil. 20th Century Studios is hoping the brand name helps here, but that could be a stretch. As mentioned, you have to go back 18 years to the last time we had an Omen flick. The 2006 remake premiered in the summer of 2006 and capitalized by debuting on Tuesday, June 6th of that year (get it?). Despite poor reviews, the gambit paid off at first with a $16 million start from Friday to Sunday and $36 million when factoring in those extra three days of release. However, it managed to tumble 65% in its sophomore outing and wound up with a so-so $54 million domestically.

All of that exposition is a way of saying that this franchise doesn’t have the juice of a Conjuring or Insidious or even Evil Dead, to name some. There’s always the chance that horror exceeds expectations. With that caveat, I’ll say low teens is where this lands with a famously unlucky number.

The First Omen opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million

For my Monkey Man prediction, click here:

Monkey Man Box Office Prediction

Immaculate Box Office Prediction

Sydney Sweeney is in Scream Queen mode when Immaculate is delivered to theaters on March 22nd. The fright fest finds the Euphoria, Anyone but You, and Madame Web star as a devout nun uncovering demonic happenings in the Italian countryside. Michael Mohan directs with a supporting cast including Álvaro Morte, Benedetta Porcaroli, Dora Romano, Giorgio Colangeli, and Simona Tabasco.

The Neon distributed effort is generating uneven reviews (it premiered at South by Southwest earlier this week). The RT meter stands at 64%. I haven’t seen a screen count and the marketing campaign seems a bit on the underwhelming side.

Horror can exceed expectations and that might hold true with Immaculate. Yet I wonder if this can manage the $9M+ that The Pope’s Exorcist achieved for its start last year. It might be lucky to earn half of that.

Immaculate opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

For my Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire prediction, click here:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Late Night with the Devil

South by Southwest is happening now and giving us some potential awards players (keep an eye out for my imminent Civil War post for example). It was at last year’s SXSW that festival goers were first exposed to Late Night with the Devil. Australian brothers Colin and Cameron Cairnes direct the 1970s set found footage horror flick with David Dastmalchian as a talk show host showcasing some demonic guests. Laura Gordon, Ian Bliss, and Fayssal Bazzi costar.

Devil is finally slated for stateside distribution on March 22nd with a Shudder streaming bow on April 19th. Many reviews are raves and it sports a 100% RT score. Dastmalchian, a memorable character who you may recognize from Prisoners, The Suicide Squad, Dune, and Oppenheimer, is being praised for this rare lead role.

That said, this is not the kind of material that awards voters notice… at least at the big dance. Perhaps the Indie Spirit Awards will be more attuned to its scare tactics. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…