Tag: Horror

May 9-11 Box Office Predictions

The movie formerly known as Thunderbolts* looks to rule the box office once again with Sinners firmly in the runner-up position in this second May frame. That’s because there’s no new wide releases to challenge them and the top five should look similar to the month’s first weekend.

The MCU’s 36th entry Thunderbolts* (we’ll get to that asterisk) opened similarly to 2021 franchise titles Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75 million) and Eternals ($71 million). Shang dropped in the mid-50s in its sophomore outing while Eternals fell a steeper 62%. With solid word-of-mouth and scant competition, a low to mid 50s decline is where I see this ending up.

Sinners looks to continue its meager drops and should see mid-20s in its fourth go-round while A Minecraft Movie, The Accountant 2, and Until Dawn should all hold at 3-5.

Back to that asterisk. So… (spoiler alert?… but not really) Disney/Marvel revealed today that Thunderbolts* is actually titled The New Avengers and it is listed that way on official materials. This all makes sense after you’ve seen it. Therefore I will honor the studio’s wishes and call it that moving forward.

Here’s how I see the high 5 shaking out:

1. The New Avengers

Predicted Gross: $33.8 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $24 million

3. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $2.2 million

Box Office Results (May 2-4)

Thund…,errr, The New Avengers came in at the lower end of its anticipated range with $74.3 million, falling shy of my $79.3 million call. It’s not a bad result for the superhero tale, but it is several million short of what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February and nowhere near the earnings of previous sagas with the word Avengers in it.

Sinners hauled in another $33.1 million, in line with my $34 million forecast. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick has amassed $179 million in three weeks.

A Minecraft Movie was third with $13.7 million, slightly topping my $12.5 million projection. The Warner Bros smash is just under $400 million at $398 million after four weeks.

The Accountant 2 saw its numbers plummet 61% in weekend #2 with $9.4 million. That’s below my more generous $12.8 million prediction. The ten-day tally is $41 million.

Video game based horror pic Until Dawn rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.4 million) for $14 million in its two weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Sinners (Take II)

On rare occasions, the need arises to update my Oscar prognosis on a particular picture if warranted. When I penned my post for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners on April 13th, I didn’t discount its awards potential. I wrote of its solid chances in down-the-line competitions including Ludwig Goransson’s lauded score and the sound and production design.

However, I also wrote this:

So could Sinners score above-the-line mentions? I think it’s possible, but I wouldn’t predict it at the moment. Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay could materialize depending on how competition shakes out in the months ahead.

I don’t need to wait until the months ahead to revise my remarks. Sinners has taken the box office by storm in addition to its critical acclaim. When my initial write-up was published nearly three weeks ago, the vampire drama stood at 100% on RT. It barely lost any steam with 98% at press time, a 97% audience score and 84 on Metacritic.

On the financial front, Coogler’s latest has taken in $123 million domestically after less than two weeks and it should reach $250 million or higher. Sinners has become part of the cultural zeitgeist and that’s a recipe for a strong showing this awards season.

So what’s the best case scenario for this? The ceiling has undeniably gotten higher. I now believe that Sinners will be nominated for Best Picture with Director and Original Screenplay as major possibilities. In addition to the aforementioned Score, Production Design, and Sound, there are other below the line categories where it could pop up. That includes the new Casting race, Original Song (where the track “I Lied to You” from cast member Miles Caton might stand the best shot), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. Regarding that new casting competition, I’m confident this will be in a sturdy position to vie for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards next year.

I didn’t discuss the actors involved in mid-April because I wasn’t seriously considering their inclusion. That has changed. Michael B. Jordan could factor into the Best Actor race. In Supporting Actress, it could be Hailee Steinfeld or Wunmi Mosaku (with the former probably having an edge to nab her second nod after 2010’s True Grit). For Supporting Actor, there’s Delroy Lindo, Caton, or Jack O’Connell. Some of this may come down to who Warner Bros mounts campaigns for. The narrative for Lindo might be tempting. Five years ago, he probably narrowly missed the cut for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods. He’s a well-respected veteran actor who’s never been nominated and the Academy could look to rectify that.

Back to that best case scenario. If all went perfectly, that would be 16 nominations and the record stands at 14 (shared by Titanic, All About Eve, and La La Land). Do I think that’ll happen? No. Would 12 or 13 nods surprise me? No.

Some prognosticators may think it’s too early to think anything has secured one of the ten BP slots. And there’s always the matter of a horror movie making the cut. Yet Get Out and The Substance brought the genre into the big dance in the past decade. As for the timeline, it was rather clear that Dune: Part Two was going to be a Warner Bros hopeful at this juncture in 2024 and that turned out to be accurate. Another counterargument is that WB will focus on Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Time will tell on that one, but there’s no reason the studio can’t have two contenders and I’m skeptical (based on the trailer) that Battle is a surefire play over Sinners.

Three weeks ago I wasn’t predicting Sinners for BP and beyond “at the moment”. That moment arrived quickly for me to reconsider. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

May 2-4 Box Office Predictions

The summer 2025 box office season gets underway with Marvel’s Thunderbolts*. The 36th franchise entry looks to make noise atop the charts and you peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Thunderbolts* Box Office Prediction

With solid early buzz, my high 70s projection gives it about $10 million less than what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February. The debut would put it in line with general expectations as it’ll hope to leg out impressively throughout May.

Sinners was #1 once again for a second frame following an astonishing hold (more on that below). The MCU competition should mean a heftier slide than the sophomore outing, but I still have it only easing around 25%. That would mean a third weekend north of $30 million.

Third place could be a close contest between holdovers The Accountant 2 and A Minecraft Movie. I have the former dropping close to 50% with Minecraft experiencing a mid 40s decline.

Fifth place should belong to Until Dawn with around a high 50s to 60% plummet (typical for the horror genre).

Here’s how I have that high five playing out:

1. Thunderbolts*

Predicted Gross: $79.3 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $34 million

3. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (April 25-27)

Multiplexes were packed as four features topped $20 million in sales with Sinners shocking prognosticators with a mere 5% drop. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick with Michael B. Jordan sucked up another $45.7 million, blasting past my $33.1 million prediction. In ten days, the Oscar contender stands at $123 million with $300 million domestic potentially in its sights.

The rerelease of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith for its 20th anniversary landed one of the best reissue premieres of all time with $25.4 million in a surprise second That edges past my $22.6 million call. The third feature (and best reviewed) of the second trilogy returned to theaters for a one-week engagement (that’s why you don’t see it reflected in my projections for next weekend). A nostalgia factor clearly helped Sith as it almost tripled what The Phantom Menace‘s rerelease in February 2024 earned for its start. The $25 million in extra coin for Sith pushed the total domestic haul to $405 million over two decades.

The highest grossing truly new film was The Accountant 2 as the Ben Affleck action sequel was third with $24.5 million. I was right on target at $24.3 million, but I thought it would be #2. Its opening gross is right in line with the 2016 original.

A Minecraft Movie was fourth in weekend #4 with $22.7 million (I said $21.4 million) as the Warner Bros video game adaptation has collected $379 million.

New horror pic Until Dawn (also based on a video game) rounded out the top five with $8 million. The unimpressive figure is on pace with my $7.8 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/23): I am now factoring in the re-release of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith and projecting a third place showing with $20M+. I am also lowering my The Account 2 estimate from $28.6 million to $24.3 million.

The Accountant 2 with Ben Affleck looks to challenge the second weekend of Sinners for box office supremacy while horror pic Until Dawn also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The Accountant 2 Box Office Prediction
Until Dawn Box Office Prediction

Over Easter weekend, I predicted a close race between A Minecraft Movie and Sinners with the former coming out on top. I underestimated Sinners (more on that below) and it toppled Minecraft. This time it could be a photo finish between Sinners and The Accountant 2.

My high 20s projection for Affleck’s action thriller sequel could be enough for #1. However, due to its A Cinemascore grade and sizzling reviews, I’m thinking Sinners only dips in the mid 30s and that could give it north of $30 million for a repeat performance on top.

A mid 40s drop would give Minecraft $20M+ and third place. The battle for fifth could be interesting. While faith-based The King of Kings held even better than I figured over the holiday, the third weekend slide should be heftier in the mid 50s. That could still leave it in fourth as I have little faith in Until Dawn.

Here’s how I have the high six playing out:

1. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $33.1 million

2. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $24.3 million

3. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith re-release

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

4. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

5. The King of Kings

Predicted Gross: $8 million

6. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (April 18-20)

It was a smoking Easter frame for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners with the best debut for an original picture since Jordan Peele’s Us from 2019. As mentioned, glowing reviews helped build buzz to a $48 million start. That tops my $44.8 million forecast and the Michael B. Jordan vampire saga looks to hold up well based on that word-of-mouth (in addition to being a likely awards contender).

After two weeks atop the charts, A Minecraft Movie slipped to second with $40.4 million (not matching my $46.1 million estimate). Nevertheless Warner Bros was able to claim legit bragging rights with Sinners and this each exceeding expectations. The three-week total is $343 million.

The King of Kings eased a scant 9% for third with $17.5 million, rising above my $12.7 million prediction. The ten-day tally is $45 million.

The Amateur was fourth with $7 million and I went a bit higher at $8.6 million. The Rami Malek spy flick stands at $27 million after two weekends.

Finally, Warfare rounded out the top five with $4.8 million (I said $5.4 million) for $17 million total in its second outing.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Until Dawn Box Office Prediction

After venturing into superhero territory with Shazam! and its sequel, David F. Sandberg reenters horror territory with Until Dawn on April 25th. Inspired by the 2015 PlayStation game, Ella Rubin, Michael Cimino (not the late Deer Hunter and Heaven’s Gate director), Odessa A’Zion, Ji-young Yoo, Belmont Cameli, and Peter Stormare star.

This survival scare fest from the filmmaker behind Lights Out and Annabelle: Creation is a test of Sony’s marketing muscle. The PS game did well and that could bleed over to cinematic sales. However, reaction to the trailer has been rather weak. Unless I’m grossly underestimating the draw of its source material, this may fail to reach $10 million.

Until Dawn opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my The Accountant 2 prediction, click here:

The Accountant 2 Box Office Prediction

For my Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith re-release prediction, click here:

Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith Re-Release Box Office Prediction

The Woman in the Yard Box Office Prediction

Danielle Deadwyler stars in The Woman in the Yard, the latest horror flick from Universal/Blumhouse. Reuniting the lead with her Carry-On director Jaume Collet-Serra, costars include Okwui Okpokwasili, Russell Hornsby, Peyton Jackson, and Estella Kahiha.

Coming in at a brisk 87 minutes, I still question whether genre fans will make the time for it. Some may opt for Death of a Unicorn, which opens against it. A best case scenario might be a gross just north of $10 million, similar to Talk to Me from 2022. Yet that pic had more buzz than this one. I’ll say mid to high single digits is where this lands.

The Woman in the Yard opening weekend prediction: $6.7 million

For my A Working Man prediction, click here:

A Working Man Box Office Prediction

For my Death of a Unicorn prediction, click here:

Death of a Unicorn Box Office Prediction

For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 prediction, click here:

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 Box Office Prediction

The Monkey Box Office Prediction

Neon looks for The Monkey to shine at the box office when it opens February 21st. Based on Stephen King’s 1980 short story, the horror flick is Osgood Perkins’ follow-up to his surprise hit Longlegs from last year. Theo James, Tatiana Maslany, Elijah Wood, Christian Convery, Colin O’Brien, Rohan Campbell, and Sarah Levy star.

Profitability shouldn’t be an issue considering the reported $10 million budget. Early reviews are at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 67 on Metacritic. In July of 2024, Longlegs kicked off to a robust $22 million on its way to a $74 million domestic haul.

There’s been lots of scary movies in recent weeks, but The Monkey could capitalize on its simple premise, decent buzz, and King/Perkins combo. It could get past what Longlegs accomplished though I’ll project under in the high teens or low 20s.

The Monkey opening weekend prediction: $18.2 million

For my The Unbreakable Boy prediction, click here:

The Unbreakable Boy Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Companion

Drew Hancock’s mix of horror, sci-fi and comedy Companion (out tomorrow) is drawing far stronger reactions that most January releases manage. Sophie Thatcher and Jack Quaid star with Lukas Gage, Megan Suri, Harvey Guillén, and Rupert Friend supporting.

With 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic at 76, Warner Bros hopes to have a sleeper on its hands. Thatcher is turning into a Scream Queen with The Boogeyman and Heretic to her credit. The latter also drew thumbs up notices and probably came close to earning Hugh Grant a Best Actor nod.

Yet as an any Oscar follower knows, horror is a tough genre for performers to generate awards chatter. That should hold true in this case. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Heart Eyes Box Office Prediction

Sony hopes horror fans watch Heart Eyes when it debuts February 7th. Josh Ruben directs the scary pic with comedic overtones. Olivia Holt, Mason Gooding, Gigi Zumbado, Michaela Watkins, Devon Sawa, and Jordana Brewster are included in the cast.

Set on Valentine’s Day, Christopher Landon (maker of Happy Death Day and Freaky) cowrote and coproduced. The studio would go gaga if this got anywhere near the mid 20s Happy Day opening weekend haul achieved in 2017.

Don’t look for that to occur. Heart Eyes seems more likely to debut in the $9.8 million range that sequel Happy Death Day 2U had in 2019. I’ll say it manages to get a little more.

Heart Eyes opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million

For my Love Hurts prediction, click here:

Love Hurts Box Office Prediction

Companion Box Office Prediction

Horror pic Companion looks to earn its budget back quickly when it debuts January 31st. From writer/director Drew Hancock, Sophie Thatcher and Jack Quaid headline with a supporting cast including Lukas Gage, Megan Suri, Harvey Guillén, and Rupert Friend.

Buzz among genre fans is decent with 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and 76 on Metacritic. With a reported price of tag of only $10 million, this should be a profitable venture for Warner Bros. I could see this performing similarly to last fall’s Heretic out of the gate. It also featured burgeoning scream queen Thatcher (no relation that I’m aware of) and took in $11 million for its start. I’ll say Companion is right in that range.

Companion opening weekend prediction: $10.6 million

For my Dog Man prediction, click here:

Dog Man Box Office Prediction