Retriever Indy is said to carry Good Boy on his paws as the horror flick debuts October 3rd. After premiering at South by Southwest in the spring, encouraging word-of-mouth (95% RT, 71 Metacritic) and a memorable trailer eventually led the haunted house tale (told from the canine character’s perspective) to a wide release pattern. Ben Leonberg directs and cowrites with a human cast consisting of Shane Jensen, Arielle Friedman and Larry Fessenden.
Clocking in at a brisk 72 minutes, a best case scenario might be higher single digits. I’ll be keeping an eye out for a theater count as that could alter the estimate, but I’ll say lower single digits is the likelier outcome.
Good Boy opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million
For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:
The Strangers – Chapter 2 finds its home in multiplexes on September 26th. The Lionsgate effort is the follow-up to last year’s (you guessed it) The Strangers: Chapter 1. Why they went with a hyphen this time around instead of the predecessor’s colon remains a compelling mystery. Renny Harlin returns in the director’s chair with Madelaine Petsch, Gabriel Basso and Ema Horvath starring.
Marking the fourth overall pic in the franchise that began in 2008, this chapter will hope to keep pace with what 2024’s entry accomplished. It opened to $11.8 million with a $35 million eventual domestic take. There could be diminishing returns (a horror movie eventually has to underperform… right?) and this could be the first Strangers not to exceed $10 million in its debut.
The Strangers – Chapter 2 opening weekend prediction: $6.7 million
For my One Battle After Another prediction, click here:
Universal hopes sports and horror is a successful mix when Him opens September 19th. From Jordan Peele’s Monkeypaw production house, Justin Tipping directs and cowrites. Marlon Wayans is an aging quarterback training a newbie (Tyriq Winters) via unconventional methods. The supporting cast includes Julia Fox, Tim Heidecker and Jim Jefferies.
If Peele were behind the camera, my projection might double. Scary movie aficionados have had lots to feast on recently (Weapons, The Conjuring: Last Rites). Him should successfully bring a fair portion out though it’s unlikely to approach the level of the aforementioned pics.
We have certainly seen this genre greatly exceed expectations in 2025, but I’ll say low 20s is where this lands.
Him opening weekend prediction: $20.3 million
For my A Big Bold Beautiful Journey prediction, click here:
Despite critical acclaim, The Long Walk could face a tough road when it debuts September 12th. The Lionsgate release is based on the first novel that Stephen King ever wrote when he was a teenager (it was eventually released under his pseudonym Richard Bachman in 1979). I Am Legend and Hunger Games series maker Francis Lawrence directs the dystopian horror flick. The cast includes Cooper Hoffman, David Jonsson, Garrett Wareing, Tut Nyuot, Charlie Plummer, Ben Wang, Roman Griffin Davis, Jordan Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Judy Greer, and Mark Hamill.
Reviews are impressive with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 80 on Metacritic. That said, genre fans have had plenty of material to view lately and The Conjuring: Last Rites should still be haunting viewers in its sophomore frame. Solid word-of-mouth could push it over double digits, but I’m skeptical.
The Long Walk opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million
For my Demon Slayer: Kametsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle prediction, click here:
Warner Bros looks for its fruitful 2025 to keep rolling when The Conjuring: Last Rites hits theaters on September 5th. The studio has had horror hits this year via Sinners and Weapons. Rites marks the fourth proper feature in the series that began in 2013 and ninth overall in the franchise when counting spinoffs Annabelle and The Nun and their sequels. Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga reprise their roles as paranormal investigators Ed and Lorraine Warren. Michael Chaves, who made #3 The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It and The Nun II, directs. Costars include Mia Tomlinson and Ben Hardy.
2021’s Devil actually had the lowest opening weekend of the entire franchise with $24 million. That comes with an asterisk as it premiered during COVID times and was unveiled simultaneously on HBO Max. 2023’s The Nun II brought the scary universe back to normal debuts at $32 million. The original Nun from 2018 boasts the highest debut of the whole lot at $53 million.
Last Rites is pacing to reach those heights and should exceed the $40 million beginnings like the first two Conjuring pics managed to do at $40 million and $41 million, respectively. I am projecting that it’ll outdo The Nun for a franchise best haul.
The Conjuring: Last Rites opening weekend prediction: $58.2 million
In 2022, Zach Cregger impressed critics and horror fans alike with Barbarian. He seems to have repeated that success with Weapons, out Friday. Focused on a mystery surrounding 17 missing children, Josh Brolin and Julia Garner star. The supporting cast includes Cary Christopher, Alden Ehrenreich, Austin Abrams, Benedict Wong, and Amy Madigan.
With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 79 Metacritic (the latter score right in line with Barbarian), Weapons aims to be an August sleeper hit. This is a genre that struggles to generate awards attention. That should hold true here, though I’ll note several reviewers are praising Cregger’s script. Original Screenplay, however, is likely to be too crowded for Weapons to contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After receiving critical kudos and impressive box office numbers for his solo directorial debut Barbarian in 2022, Zach Cregger’s follow-up Weapons is unloaded on August 8th. The horror mystery about a group of kids vanishing into the night stars Josh Brolin and Julia Garner (currently surfing multiplexes in The Fantastic Four: First Steps). Supporting players include Cary Christopher, Alden Ehrenreich, Austin Abrams, Benedict Wong, and Amy Madigan.
Effective trailers, appreciation for Barbarian, and early reviews (100% on RT currently) have caused genre fans to circle Weapons on their viewing calendar. While Cregger’s first scary movie started off with $10 million, his second is expected to double that figure and then some. Some estimates even have this getting to $30M+. I’ll be a bit more conservative and go high 20s.
Real-life spouses Dave Franco and Alison Brie are fictional spouses growing a little too close for comfort in the body horror tale Together, out July 30th. It marks the directorial debut of Michael Shanks (who also scripts) and the Neon distributed release generated significant buzz after its Sundance bow.
Together currently has bragging rights with a rare 100% Rotten Tomatoes score and that’s helpful for the TV spots. Metacritic is at 76. Neon hopes this brings in genre audiences like their unexpected hit Longlegs did last summer. That critically appreciated pic surprised prognosticators with a $22 million start.
I don’t anticipate Together will see that kind of premiere. I do anticipate it will outdo the $5.3 million opening of Neon offering Immaculate last spring. Since it kicks off on a Wednesday, I’ll say a higher single digits bow over the traditional weekend with around $10 million for the five-day is the call.
Together opening weekend prediction: $7 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Sony hopes horror fans get hooked on the nostalgic scares of I Know What You Did Last Summer on July 18th. It restarts the late 90s franchise that capitalized on Kevin Williamson’s notoriety from Scream (he penned both). Jennifer Kaytin Robinson directs with Madelyn Cline, Chase Sui Wonders, Jonah Hauer-King, Tyriq Winters, Sarah Pidgeon, and Billy Campbell among the cast. Jennifer Love Hewitt and Freddie Prinze Jr. reprise their roles from the features over a quarter century ago.
The teen centric slasher from 1997 was a financial success ($72 million domestically) while 1998 follow-up I Still Know What You Did Last Summer couldn’t measure up with $40 million stateside. This series may not hold the same reverence that Scream does among genre fans. Name brand familiarity could still mean decent grosses.
Tracking has this pegged in the mid to late teens. I think it could go higher in the low 20s, but I’ll go with the expectations.
I Know What You Did Last Summer opening weekend prediction: $17.7 million
Dinosaurs seek to rule the Independence Day weekend courtesy of the seventh feature in the 32-year-old franchise with Jurassic World Rebirth. It is the only wide release newcomer stomping into multiplexes over the holiday and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The Jurassic series has proven itself to be critic proof in recent years and that should come into play with the new installment starring Scarlett Johansson. An opening weekend in nine figures is unlikely since it premieres on Wednesday (the last three World‘s achieved $100M+ out of the gate but debuted on traditional Friday to Sunday frames). I’m projecting a three-day in the $80 million ballpark with $130M+ when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday.
After a sizzling start, F1 with Brad Pitt will drop to second. With an A Cinemascore grade and appeal to adult moviegoers, you can expect impressive holds in the weekends to come. This may only ease around 30% and don’t be shocked if it’s even a little less for a strong runner-up position.
Holdovers will populate 3-6 with How to Train Your Dragon firmly in third and the lackluster Elio in fourth. Numbers five and six could be close between sequels 28 Years Later and M3GHAN 2.0, which short-circuited over the weekend.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $133 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. F1
Predicted Gross: $39.7 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
4. Elio
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
5. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
6. M3GAN 2.0
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (June 27-29)
F1 or F1: The Movie, Joseph Kosinski’s follow-up to Top Gun: Maverick, revved up impressive results with $57 million, lapping my $46.2 million prediction. It also performed with top-notch earnings overseas. As mentioned, word-of-mouth should keep this in the zeitgeist over the weekends to come. A sequel is already in the planning stages.
How to Train Your Dragon, after two weeks atop the charts, was second with $19.5 million. That’s in line with my $19.1 million forecast as the live-action remake has fired up $200 million in three weeks.
Elio, after a worst ever Pixar premiere, didn’t hold up well in third with $10.4 million. I was more generous at $13 million as its sophomore plunge was a steep 50% (especially for its studio). This is undoubtedly one of the summer’s most significant flops.
Same goes for M3GAN 2.0. The sequel eschewed horror for a campier sci-fi tone and audiences rejected it. The fourth place showing was a DOA $10.2 million compared to the original’s $30 million. There’s no spinning that result for Blumhouse.
Finally, zombie threequel 28 Years Later plummeted 67% in its second outing with $9.7 million compared to my $12.6 million take. The ten-day tally is $50 million.
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