Tag: Horror Movies

The Strangers – Chapter 3 Box Office Prediction

The Strangers – Chapter 3 is (naturally) the fifth feature in the nearly two-decade old horror franchise and it opens February 6th. To add more context, it is the culmination of this specific trilogy in the series from director Renny Harlin. Chapter 1 arrived in 2024 with Chapter 2 dropping only four months ago. Madelaine Petsch, Gabriel Basso, Ema Horvath, and Richard Brake star.

In 2008, the first Strangers (as in very first) was a sleeper hit that made $20 million in weekend #1 and $52 million domestically. None of the three follow-ups have matched it. 2018’s The Strangers: Prey at Night barely topped $10 million out of the gate with just under $25 million stateside. Chapter 1 managed nearly $12 million and an overall tally of $35 million. Chapter 2 easily saw franchise lows with a $5.8 million start and $15 million total.

Diminishing returns could certainly continue. I see no valid argument why this would top its predecessor and I’ll put it about a million below.

The Strangers – Chapter 3 opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

Oscar Predictions – 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple is the fourth film in the zombie/post-apocalyptic franchise started under Danny Boyle nearly a quarter century ago. Out this weekend, Nia DaCosta (no stranger to the genre via her Candyman reboot) directs with Ralph Fiennes, Jack O’Connell, Alfie Williams, Erin Kellyman, and Chi Lewis-Parry in the cast.

It follows 28 Years Later by only seven months. Impressively it has the best RT score of the quartet at 93% with Metacritic at 80 (also a series high). There was chatter for its predecessor landing a Makeup and Hairstyling nomination for the 98th Academy Awards. However, it did not make the shortlist of ten for contention. Even with slightly stronger critical reaction, Academy voters are unlikely to throw Temple a bone in that race or any other for the 99th ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple Box Office Prediction

Arriving just seven months after its post-apocalyptic predecessor from Danny Boyle, 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple opens in multiplexes on January 16th. Shot back-to-back with 28 Years Later, Temple sees Nia DaCosta taking over directorial duties in this fourth overall franchise entry that began with 28 Days Later in 2003. Alex Garland scripts with Ralph Fiennes, Jack O’Connell, Alfie Williams, and Erin Kellyman starring.

In June of 2025, Years debuted in line with expectations at $30 million and was pretty front loaded with a $70 million eventual domestic gross. It received a B Cinemascore grade (not bad at all for a horror pic). Even with the solid critical reaction and decent audience response, Temple is unlikely to match the earnings of the third series feature.

High teens is certainly feasible though I’ll say it manages to get just past $20 million. Note that this is a Friday to Sunday projection and not factoring in Monday’s MLK federal holiday.

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple opening weekend prediction: $20.1 million

Primate Box Office Prediction

After premiering at Fantastic Fest last September, Primate swings into multiplexes on January 9th. Centered on a chimp gone rabid during a family vacation, Johannes Roberts (no stranger to the genre with 47 Meters Down and The Strangers: Prey at Night to his credit) directs. Non-monkey cast members include Johnny Sequoyah, Jessica Alexander, and Troy Kotsur.

With 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, reviewers are calling it a fun creature feature throwback. This probably won’t get near the $14 million achieved by last year’s The Monkey, which focused on a demented title character of the toy variety.

As I’ve written many times, horror pics always have the ability to exceed estimates. With that caveat, I’ll project high single digits.

Primate opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million

For my Greenland 2: Migration prediction, click here:

Greenland 2: Migration Box Office Prediction

For my Is This Thing On? prediction, click here:

Is This Thing On? Box Office Prediction

Keeper Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my estimate from $6.5 million to $3.2 million

Osgood Perkins releases his third horror title in under two years when Keeper arrives in theaters November 14th. The two-hander stars Tatiana Maslany and Rossif Sutherland. It was shot with a Canadian crew while the filmmaker’s predecessor The Monkey was held up during the 2023 SAG/WGA strike.

In July of 2024, Longlegs from Perkins was an unexpected hit with a $22 million debut and $74 million overall domestic haul. The aforementioned Monkey followed earlier this year in February with $14 million at the outset and $39 million total. Expectations are considerably lower for Keeper with the caveat that this genre can always overperform. With that said, horror fans have plenty to see in 2025 and I’ll project mid single digits for this (similar to what Bring Her Back did early in the summer).

Keeper opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my The Running Man prediction, click here:

The Running Man Box Office Prediction

For my Now You See: Now You Don’t prediction, click here:

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t Box Office Prediction

Black Phone 2 Box Office Prediction

Universal Pictures is banking on horror fans receiving Black Phone 2 with open arms on October 17th. Following up on the surprise 2022 hit based on a novel by Joe Hill (son of Stephen King), Scott Derrickson is back directing. Ethan Hawke reprises his role as serial killer The Grabber alongside Mason Thameas, Madeleine McGraw, Demián Bechir, Miguel Mora, Jeremy Davies and Arianna Rivas.

Scary movies have been hot properties in 2025 and there should be enough goodwill left over from the original for this to solidly perform. Reviews are mostly positive with 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 71 Metacritic (pretty much right where part 1 landed).

I wouldn’t be surprised if this premiere plays out similar to Smile 2. That sequel opened on the same weekend last year with $23 million and that just edged the $22.6 million earned by its predecessor. The first Phone dialed up $23.6 million for starters and I’ll gave 2 slightly more.

Black Phone 2 opening weekend prediction: $25.5 million

For my Good Fortune prediction, click here:

Good Fortune Box Office Prediction

For my After the Hunt prediction, click here:

After the Hunt Box Office Prediction

Good Boy Box Office Prediction

Retriever Indy is said to carry Good Boy on his paws as the horror flick debuts October 3rd. After premiering at South by Southwest in the spring, encouraging word-of-mouth (95% RT, 71 Metacritic) and a memorable trailer eventually led the haunted house tale (told from the canine character’s perspective) to a wide release pattern. Ben Leonberg directs and cowrites with a human cast consisting of Shane Jensen, Arielle Friedman and Larry Fessenden.

Clocking in at a brisk 72 minutes, a best case scenario might be higher single digits. I’ll be keeping an eye out for a theater count as that could alter the estimate, but I’ll say lower single digits is the likelier outcome.

Good Boy opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million

For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl Box Office Prediction

For my The Smashing Machine prediction, click here:

The Smashing Machine Box Office Prediction

For my Avatar: The Way of Water re-release prediction, click here:

Avatar: The Way of Water Re-Release Box Office Prediction

The Strangers – Chapter 2 Box Office Prediction

The Strangers – Chapter 2 finds its home in multiplexes on September 26th. The Lionsgate effort is the follow-up to last year’s (you guessed it) The Strangers: Chapter 1. Why they went with a hyphen this time around instead of the predecessor’s colon remains a compelling mystery. Renny Harlin returns in the director’s chair with Madelaine Petsch, Gabriel Basso and Ema Horvath starring.

Marking the fourth overall pic in the franchise that began in 2008, this chapter will hope to keep pace with what 2024’s entry accomplished. It opened to $11.8 million with a $35 million eventual domestic take. There could be diminishing returns (a horror movie eventually has to underperform… right?) and this could be the first Strangers not to exceed $10 million in its debut.

The Strangers – Chapter 2 opening weekend prediction: $6.7 million

For my One Battle After Another prediction, click here:

One Battle After Another Box Office Prediction

For my Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie prediction, click here:

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie Box Office Prediction

Him Box Office Prediction

Universal hopes sports and horror is a successful mix when Him opens September 19th. From Jordan Peele’s Monkeypaw production house, Justin Tipping directs and cowrites. Marlon Wayans is an aging quarterback training a newbie (Tyriq Winters) via unconventional methods. The supporting cast includes Julia Fox, Tim Heidecker and Jim Jefferies.

If Peele were behind the camera, my projection might double. Scary movie aficionados have had lots to feast on recently (Weapons, The Conjuring: Last Rites). Him should successfully bring a fair portion out though it’s unlikely to approach the level of the aforementioned pics.

We have certainly seen this genre greatly exceed expectations in 2025, but I’ll say low 20s is where this lands.

Him opening weekend prediction: $20.3 million

For my A Big Bold Beautiful Journey prediction, click here:

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey Box Office Prediction

For my The Senior prediction, click here:

The Senior Box Office Prediction

The Long Walk Box Office Prediction

Despite critical acclaim, The Long Walk could face a tough road when it debuts September 12th. The Lionsgate release is based on the first novel that Stephen King ever wrote when he was a teenager (it was eventually released under his pseudonym Richard Bachman in 1979). I Am Legend and Hunger Games series maker Francis Lawrence directs the dystopian horror flick. The cast includes Cooper Hoffman, David Jonsson, Garrett Wareing, Tut Nyuot, Charlie Plummer, Ben Wang, Roman Griffin Davis, Jordan Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Judy Greer, and Mark Hamill.

Reviews are impressive with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 80 on Metacritic. That said, genre fans have had plenty of material to view lately and The Conjuring: Last Rites should still be haunting viewers in its sophomore frame. Solid word-of-mouth could push it over double digits, but I’m skeptical.

The Long Walk opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million

For my Demon Slayer: Kametsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle prediction, click here:

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle Box Office Prediction

For my Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale prediction, click here:

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale Box Office Prediction

For my Spinal Tap II: The End Continues prediction, click here:

Spinal Tap II: The End Continues Box Office Prediction