Tag: Horror

November 21-23 Box Office Predictions

Wicked: For Good sweeps in to rule the box office and it could compete for 2025’s biggest domestic opening. We also have Finnish action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge and Japan set dramedy Rental Family making their debuts and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Wicked: For Good Box Office Prediction
Sisu: Road to Revenge Box Office Prediction
Rental Family Box Office Prediction

The second part of Wicked is expected to easily swoosh past the $112 million opening of part 1 last year. The real question is whether it eclipses the $162 million start of A Minecraft Movie which currently holds the record for the year. I have falling just behind.

Sisu: Road to Revenge should manage to top the $3.3 million out of the gate that its predecessor achieved in 2023, but perhaps not by much. My mid single digits projection puts it in fifth.

Rental Family with Oscar winner Brendan Fraser hasn’t been able to generate much buzz despite mostly solid reviews. I have it struggling in sixth place.

Holdovers should populate slots 2-4. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t scored a surprise #1 showing (more on that below). If it drops in range with Now You See Me 2 from nine years ago, it could fall below $10 million for the runner-up spot. The second weekend of The Running Man and third frame of Predator: Badlands could see similar numbers battling for third.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $158.1 million

2. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

3. The Running Man

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

4. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

5. Sisu: Road to Revenge

Predicted Gross: $4 million

6. Rental Family

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (November 14-16)

As mentioned, threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t easily ruled the charts with a better than anticipated $21 million compared to my $17.1 million prediction. While it’s the lowest opening of the franchise (falling under the original’s $29 million and part two’s $22 million), the #1 posting was an unexpected development.

That’s because many prognosticators, including me, figured The Running Man with Glen Powell might manage bragging rights. Yet the sci-fi remake took in only $16.4 million for second, under my $19.6 million estimate.

Another projection I missed is that I thought Predator: Badlands wouldn’t experience the hefty sophomore decline of other pics in the franchise. However, it plummeted 68% to $12.7 million. I was far more generous at $18.2 million. The two-week tally is still an impressive $66 million.

Regretting You was fourth with $3.7 million and I was higher at $5 million. The four-week take is $44 million.

Black Phone 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. In its fifth week, it earned $2.6 million to bring its total to $74 million.

Keeper from Osgood Perkins was right behind in sixth with $2.5 million (I said $3.2 million). The horror flick couldn’t attract its intended audience.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my The Running Man estimate from $27.6 million to $19.6 million as reviews and word-of-mouth have stalled momentum; I am downgrading my Keeper estimate from $6.5 million to $3.2 million

The Running Man looks steal the box office crown as heist threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t and horror pic Keeper debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

The Running Man Box Office Prediction
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t Box Office Prediction
Keeper Box Office Prediction

Based on the Stephen King novel, sci-fi action satire The Running Man also serves as a remake of the 1987 pic with Glen Powell taking over starring duties from Arnold Schwarzenegger. I don’t think it reaches the heights of Predator: Badlands from this past weekend (more on that below), but it should place 1st in the low to mid 20s.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t includes Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, and Morgan Freeman reprising their roles from 2013 and 2016 predecessors. That’s a lengthy layover from part 2 to 3 and the second one didn’t match the original in terms of cash. I anticipate the drop-off will continue and I have See in third.

Keeper could overperform as horror titles often do, but I’m going mid single digits for a fourth place showing for the latest genre effort from the prolific Osgood Perkins.

It will be interesting to see the sophomore frame percentage decline for Predator: Badlands. 2010’s Predators and 2018’s The Predator each debuted in the mid 20s (far below this one). They plummeted 72% and 63% respectively in their follow-up outings. The film in the franchise that performed similarly to Badlands (2004’s AVP: Alien Vs. Predator) saw a 68% dip. However, I don’t see this falling that far due to its A- Cinemascore (the strongest of the lot). Mid 50s seems more likely.

Regretting You, which showed impressive staying power last weekend, should round out the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. The Running Man

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

2. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

4. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $5 million

6. Keeper

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (November 7-9)

It took a nearly 40-year-old franchise to wake up the box office and showed that the series wasn’t over the hill as Predator: Badlands amassed $40 million. Solid word-of-mouth and positive reviews helped propel it to the highest start of the nine pictures when not adjusting for inflation. This easily eclipsed my $27.6 million prediction.

Regretting You, as mentioned, slid a teensy 15% in weekend #3 to $6.6 million compared to my $4.8 million call. The romantic drama is plugging along with $38 million thus far.

Black Phone 2 dropped from 1st to 3rd as it received $5.1 million, in line with my $4.6 million projection. The sequel has taken in $70 million after four weeks.

The inspirational early 20th century set drama Sarah’s Oil, which includes Zachary Levi among its cast, was my surprise of the weekend. It placed fourth with $4.2 million and I didn’t do a guesstimate. Scoring a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, Oil could hold up well in the coming weeks.

Historical courtroom drama Nuremberg with Oscar winners Russell Crowe and Rami Malek rounded out the top five with $3.8 million, managing to outdo my $3 million take.

Bugonia was sixth in weekend #2 at $3.4 million (ahead of my $2.7 million prediction) for $12 million after two weeks of wide release.

Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc finished seventh with $3.4 million (I said $2.9 million) as the anime hit stands at $37 million after three weeks.

Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson’s drama Die, My Love debuted in eighth with $2.6 million, on pace with my $2.5 million estimate.

Finally, boxing biopic Christy with Sydney Sweeney was KO’d in 11th with just $1.3 million. I was more generous at $2.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Keeper Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my estimate from $6.5 million to $3.2 million

Osgood Perkins releases his third horror title in under two years when Keeper arrives in theaters November 14th. The two-hander stars Tatiana Maslany and Rossif Sutherland. It was shot with a Canadian crew while the filmmaker’s predecessor The Monkey was held up during the 2023 SAG/WGA strike.

In July of 2024, Longlegs from Perkins was an unexpected hit with a $22 million debut and $74 million overall domestic haul. The aforementioned Monkey followed earlier this year in February with $14 million at the outset and $39 million total. Expectations are considerably lower for Keeper with the caveat that this genre can always overperform. With that said, horror fans have plenty to see in 2025 and I’ll project mid single digits for this (similar to what Bring Her Back did early in the summer).

Keeper opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my The Running Man prediction, click here:

The Running Man Box Office Prediction

For my Now You See: Now You Don’t prediction, click here:

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t Box Office Prediction

Black Phone 2 Box Office Prediction

Universal Pictures is banking on horror fans receiving Black Phone 2 with open arms on October 17th. Following up on the surprise 2022 hit based on a novel by Joe Hill (son of Stephen King), Scott Derrickson is back directing. Ethan Hawke reprises his role as serial killer The Grabber alongside Mason Thameas, Madeleine McGraw, Demián Bechir, Miguel Mora, Jeremy Davies and Arianna Rivas.

Scary movies have been hot properties in 2025 and there should be enough goodwill left over from the original for this to solidly perform. Reviews are mostly positive with 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 71 Metacritic (pretty much right where part 1 landed).

I wouldn’t be surprised if this premiere plays out similar to Smile 2. That sequel opened on the same weekend last year with $23 million and that just edged the $22.6 million earned by its predecessor. The first Phone dialed up $23.6 million for starters and I’ll gave 2 slightly more.

Black Phone 2 opening weekend prediction: $25.5 million

For my Good Fortune prediction, click here:

Good Fortune Box Office Prediction

For my After the Hunt prediction, click here:

After the Hunt Box Office Prediction

October 3-5 Box Office Predictions

Just as she will on the music charts starting Friday, the biggest pop star in the universe seeks to dominate the box office rankings with Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. We also have Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt in the MMA biopic The Smashing Machine, the re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water and canine centric horror tale Good Boy out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl Box Office Prediction
The Smashing Machine Box Office Prediction
Avatar: The Way of Water Re-Release Box Office Prediction
Good Boy Box Office Prediction

Coinciding with the release of her 12th studio album, Showgirl looks to kick up impressive earnings for its engagement lasting only this weekend. While it’s unlikely to approach the $93 million generated out of the gate by her Eras Tour doc in 2023, I believe it’ll surpass the $40 million forecasts and reach higher 40s. As a general rule, take the over when it comes to Taylor.

The Smashing Machine will compete for adult eyeballs with the second weekend of One Battle After Another. My low teens take would put it in third for a so-so showing.

While audiences await threequel James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash this December, I have the re-release of The Way of Water in mid single digits and rounding out the high five.

My lower single digits estimate at $2.8 million for Good Boy leaves it outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Battle came in at the lower end of its expected range (more on that below). However, awards buzz and the Cinemascore grade of A might mean a meager drop. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie didn’t pack in family crowds, but lack of competition for kids (though plenty of them might see Ms. Swift) could mean a decline around 40% or less.

Here’s I have it all shaking out:

1. Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl

Predicted Gross: $48.6 million

2. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

3. The Smashing Machine

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

4. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

5. Avatar: The Way of Water re-release

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

Box Office Results (September 26-28)

Paul Thomas Anderson’s acclaimed One Battle After Another certainly set a record for his openings. Yet the $22 million debut for Leonardo DiCaprio’s latest came in lower than my $27 million prediction. It will hope for (and should achieve) smallish dips in the coming weeks due to the aforementioned word-of-mouth.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was second with an unimpressive $13.6 million, well under my $20.3 million call. Based on the Netflix TV show, plenty of viewers opted to stay home.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle was third in weekend #3 with $7.1 million and ahead of my $5.8 million projection. The anime record holder has amassed $118 million stateside.

The Conjuring: Last Rites was fourth in weekend #4 at $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) as the sequel’s tally is $161 million.

The Strangers – Chapter 2 sputtered in fifth with $5.8 million, under my $6.7 million take. This scary sequel failed to approach the double digits that its predecessor last year managed.

Speaking of underwhelming fright fest performances, Him tumbled 73% in sixth with $3.5 million. I was more generous at $5.1 million as its two-week earnings are $20 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Good Boy Box Office Prediction

Retriever Indy is said to carry Good Boy on his paws as the horror flick debuts October 3rd. After premiering at South by Southwest in the spring, encouraging word-of-mouth (95% RT, 71 Metacritic) and a memorable trailer eventually led the haunted house tale (told from the canine character’s perspective) to a wide release pattern. Ben Leonberg directs and cowrites with a human cast consisting of Shane Jensen, Arielle Friedman and Larry Fessenden.

Clocking in at a brisk 72 minutes, a best case scenario might be higher single digits. I’ll be keeping an eye out for a theater count as that could alter the estimate, but I’ll say lower single digits is the likelier outcome.

Good Boy opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million

For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl Box Office Prediction

For my The Smashing Machine prediction, click here:

The Smashing Machine Box Office Prediction

For my Avatar: The Way of Water re-release prediction, click here:

Avatar: The Way of Water Re-Release Box Office Prediction

The Strangers – Chapter 2 Box Office Prediction

The Strangers – Chapter 2 finds its home in multiplexes on September 26th. The Lionsgate effort is the follow-up to last year’s (you guessed it) The Strangers: Chapter 1. Why they went with a hyphen this time around instead of the predecessor’s colon remains a compelling mystery. Renny Harlin returns in the director’s chair with Madelaine Petsch, Gabriel Basso and Ema Horvath starring.

Marking the fourth overall pic in the franchise that began in 2008, this chapter will hope to keep pace with what 2024’s entry accomplished. It opened to $11.8 million with a $35 million eventual domestic take. There could be diminishing returns (a horror movie eventually has to underperform… right?) and this could be the first Strangers not to exceed $10 million in its debut.

The Strangers – Chapter 2 opening weekend prediction: $6.7 million

For my One Battle After Another prediction, click here:

One Battle After Another Box Office Prediction

For my Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie prediction, click here:

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie Box Office Prediction

Him Box Office Prediction

Universal hopes sports and horror is a successful mix when Him opens September 19th. From Jordan Peele’s Monkeypaw production house, Justin Tipping directs and cowrites. Marlon Wayans is an aging quarterback training a newbie (Tyriq Winters) via unconventional methods. The supporting cast includes Julia Fox, Tim Heidecker and Jim Jefferies.

If Peele were behind the camera, my projection might double. Scary movie aficionados have had lots to feast on recently (Weapons, The Conjuring: Last Rites). Him should successfully bring a fair portion out though it’s unlikely to approach the level of the aforementioned pics.

We have certainly seen this genre greatly exceed expectations in 2025, but I’ll say low 20s is where this lands.

Him opening weekend prediction: $20.3 million

For my A Big Bold Beautiful Journey prediction, click here:

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey Box Office Prediction

For my The Senior prediction, click here:

The Senior Box Office Prediction

The Long Walk Box Office Prediction

Despite critical acclaim, The Long Walk could face a tough road when it debuts September 12th. The Lionsgate release is based on the first novel that Stephen King ever wrote when he was a teenager (it was eventually released under his pseudonym Richard Bachman in 1979). I Am Legend and Hunger Games series maker Francis Lawrence directs the dystopian horror flick. The cast includes Cooper Hoffman, David Jonsson, Garrett Wareing, Tut Nyuot, Charlie Plummer, Ben Wang, Roman Griffin Davis, Jordan Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Judy Greer, and Mark Hamill.

Reviews are impressive with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 80 on Metacritic. That said, genre fans have had plenty of material to view lately and The Conjuring: Last Rites should still be haunting viewers in its sophomore frame. Solid word-of-mouth could push it over double digits, but I’m skeptical.

The Long Walk opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million

For my Demon Slayer: Kametsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle prediction, click here:

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle Box Office Prediction

For my Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale prediction, click here:

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale Box Office Prediction

For my Spinal Tap II: The End Continues prediction, click here:

Spinal Tap II: The End Continues Box Office Prediction

The Conjuring: Last Rites Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros looks for its fruitful 2025 to keep rolling when The Conjuring: Last Rites hits theaters on September 5th. The studio has had horror hits this year via Sinners and Weapons. Rites marks the fourth proper feature in the series that began in 2013 and ninth overall in the franchise when counting spinoffs Annabelle and The Nun and their sequels. Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga reprise their roles as paranormal investigators Ed and Lorraine Warren. Michael Chaves, who made #3 The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It and The Nun II, directs. Costars include Mia Tomlinson and Ben Hardy.

2021’s Devil actually had the lowest opening weekend of the entire franchise with $24 million. That comes with an asterisk as it premiered during COVID times and was unveiled simultaneously on HBO Max. 2023’s The Nun II brought the scary universe back to normal debuts at $32 million. The original Nun from 2018 boasts the highest debut of the whole lot at $53 million.

Last Rites is pacing to reach those heights and should exceed the $40 million beginnings like the first two Conjuring pics managed to do at $40 million and $41 million, respectively. I am projecting that it’ll outdo The Nun for a franchise best haul.

The Conjuring: Last Rites opening weekend prediction: $58.2 million

For my Hamilton prediction, click here:

Hamilton Box Office Prediction