Spike Lee’s crime thriller Highest 2 Lowest has premiered at Cannes prior to A24’s theatrical release in August and Apple TV streaming bow in September. Updating Akira Kurosawa’s High and Low from 1963, Denzel Washington plays a music mogul caught up in a ransom plot. Costars include Ilfenesh Hadera, Jeffrey Wright, ASAP Rocky, and Ice Spice.
Critics are certainly higher than lower for the French unveiling. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94% with Metacritic at 77. According to reviews, it’s a successful genre exercise. That means, from an awards perspective, it might be a non-player like Spike and Denzel’s previous collaboration Inside Man from 2006 (this marks the fifth time they’ve teamed up).
However, I wouldn’t completely discount Denzel’s chances in Best Actor. If he could make the cut for 2017’s Roman J. Israel, Esq., he could do the same here and nab his 10th overall nom. 2017 was arguably a weak year in that category and we don’t know how the competition this time around will shake out. Mr. Washington likely came close to his 10th mention in supporting last year for Gladiator II. He might be in the arena once again. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In my second update for ranked Oscar predictions covering Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies, confidence is growing that the force is strong with Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. It moves up two spots to third in Best Picture, Coogler rises a slot to second in Director, and Delroy Lindo is now in my Supporting Actor quintet. Michael B. Jordan, Hailee Steinfeld, and Miles Caton all rise or materialize in Other Possibilities in their respective races.
My Best Picture ten remains intact and same goes for Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress. In Best Actor, I’m putting in Jesse Plemons for Bugonia with Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone) on the outside looking in. Mr. Lindo from Sinners replaces Colman Domingo for Michael. Domingo’s drop is due to persistent rumors that his film (a biopic of the King of Pop) will move to 2026.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update up in a couple weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. After the Hunt (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)
15. No Other Choice (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Die, My Love (PR: 19) (+3)
17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (E)
18. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Ann Lee (PR: 24) (+5)
20. Michael (PR: 18) (-2)
21. F1 (PR: 22) (+1)
22 Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (-8)
24. Alpha (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Is This Thing On? (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PRP 7) (E)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+3)
13. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Foster, Vie privée
Olivia Colman, The Roses
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 13) (E)
14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Andrew Scott, Pressure (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+4)
13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Greta Lee, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
Nia Long, Michael
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)
A month and change after the 97th ceremony, it is time for my first ranked predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies! I gave you my first numbered looks around the same juncture in 2023 and 2024. Two years ago, my April outlook yielded the winners being mentioned in Picture and Director (Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan), Actress (Emma Stone for Poor Things), Actor (Oppenheimer‘s Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer). Last year… not so much.
Neither Anora, its maker (Sean Baker), or Anora herself (Mikey Madison) were named in April of 2024. The film would debut a month later at Cannes and vault itself into contention. The Brutalist also wasn’t on my radar so no mention of Adrien Brody in Actor. In the supporting fields, Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez was initially ranked 11th while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) was listed in fourth. Hindsight is 20/20 for 2024, but I had Steve McQueen’s Blitz in first position in Best Picture exactly one year ago. It would go onto receive 0 nominations (pressure is on… After the Hunt).
Let’s get some key caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. Some of the pictures will get pushed back to 2026. Obviously there will be movies that turn out underwhelming and disappear from the awards conversation. Festival titles not listed today will rise up and contend.
You can expect these predictions will be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post (probably in the late summer or early fall when festival season goes into overdrive).
This inaugural preview comes as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners rules the box office with terrific reviews and word-of-mouth. At the moment, its Oscar future looks bright. Let’s see how that sentence reads several months down the line.
With all that out of the way – here are my first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. After the Hunt
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Sinners
6. The Rivals of Amziah King
7. Hamnet
8. Jay Kelly
9. The Life of Chuck
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another
12. Frankenstein
13. Bugonia
14. Deliver Me from Nowhere
15. The Smashing Machine
16. No Other Choice
17. The Ballad of a Small Player
18. Michael
19. Die, My Love
20. Highest 2 Lowest
21. Kiss of the Spider Woman
22. F1
23. Is This Thing On?
24. Ann Lee
25. Alpha
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
2. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
7. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
12. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
13. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me From Nowhere
14. Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
8. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
13. Jodie Foster, Vie privée
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead
15. Olivia Colman, The Roses
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player
10. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
15. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
8. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
10. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
12. Emily Watson, Hamnet
13. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
14. Nia Long, Michael
15. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Colman Domingo, Michael
5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
11. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
13. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love
14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
15. Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme
You can expect another update shortly before the Cannes Film Festival kicks off where contenders like Sentimental Value, The Phoenician Scheme, Alpha, Eddington, Eleanor the Great, and Highest 2 Lowest will get their initial screenings.
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are a month and change removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my takes for the four acting races and director and they can be accessed here:
That brings us to the biggest race of all – Best Picture. When I did my first projections for BP for the 97th ceremony back in April of 2024, I correctly named two of the eventual ten nominees in Conclave and Dune: Part Two. Three others – Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, and Wicked – were listed in Other Possibilities. Five other contenders – winner Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, I’m Still Here, and The Substance – were not yet on my radar screen.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system much like Anora, Pérez, The Substance, and The Brutalist last time around.
This premiere post predicts part two of Wicked and part 3 of Avatar among the ten hopefuls as well as last year’s Toronto Film Festival People Choice’s winner The Life of Chuck. Unlike most prognosticators, I currently have Paul Thomas Anderson’s high profile One Battle After Another on the outside looking in. And while I don’t have Sinners in my ten, the 99% RT rating is really making me wonder. I came close to including it.
My initial ranked predictions in the six major races (as well as the screenplay competitions) will be posted soon. In the meantime, here’s the first glimpse at BP.
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
It is just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the acting fields and they can be found here:
That brings us to Best Director. This is the one major race of these first six where I named none of the eventual nominees for 97th ceremony back in April of 2024. That means the winner Sean Baker (Anora) and the other quartet of contenders (Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez, Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, James Mangold for A Complete Unknown) had yet to reach my radar screen. Two years ago, I already had eventual recipient Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) in my high five during the inaugural guesstimate.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system much like Anora, Pérez, The Substance, and The Brutalist last time around.
This premiere post projects a return to competition for previous honoree Chloe Zhao with heavy hitters like Paul Thomas Anderson and Guillermo del Toro on the outside looking in.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Picture up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.
It begins with Supporting Actor. When I gave you my first picks in 2024, it yielded one eventual nominee. That happened to be the winner with Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly called another contender in Culkin’s Succession costar Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice). Yura Borisov (Anora), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) were not identified at this early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
This premiere post projects that Colman Domingo will earn his third nod in as many years after lead actor attempts for Rustin and Sing Sing as troubled Jackson family patriarch Joseph in Michael. We could also see Star Wars legend Mark Hamill nab a slot for Toronto Film Festival Audience winner The Life of Chuck and Adam Sandler see his first recognition for Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly.
Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
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