Tag: Hayao Miyazaki

December 15-17 Box Office Predictions

The iconic chocolatier, this time played by Timothee Chalamet, looks to dominate the box office as Wonka opens this weekend. It is the only new wide release coming our way before a slew of Christmas offerings arrive. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Wonka Box Office Prediction

My mid 30s projection easily gives it the #1 spot as it hopes to leg out splendidly throughout the holiday season. It should manage to do so with the known IP and mostly positive critical reaction. Kiddos and their parents should eat this up as the season moves along.

The rest of the top five should be filled with leftovers. After a strong start (more on that below), The Boy and the Heron should slide to second. It might have the largest drop of the returnees (possibly close to 50%), but then again I thought Godzilla Minus One would have a considerably heftier sophomore dip.

I have The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes in third with the aforementioned Godzilla in fourth and Trolls Band Together rounding out the high five. Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $36.4 million

2. The Boy and the Heron

Predicted Gross: $7 million

3. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

4. Godzilla Minus One

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (December 8-10)

Legendary Japanese animator Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron flew to the top spot with an impressive $12.9 million. This soars past my $8 million projection and should become the director’s highest grosser stateside in short order.

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes held in second with $9.2 million, just ahead of my $8.6 million take. The four-week total is $135 million.

Godzilla Minus One had a strong hold, down just 25% in third with $8.5 million. I figured it would fall a lot more and forecasted the green giant at $4.9 million. The ten-day tally is $25 million.

Trolls Band Together was fourth with $6 million (I said $4.7 million) as the animated threequel sits at $82 million after four frames.

Finally, last weekend’s champ Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé plummeted 75% to fifth with $5.4 million. I was more kind at $7.6 million. Total is $28 million for the concert flick.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Boy and the Heron Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (12/06): It appears The Boy and the Heron is opening on approximately 2100 screens. That is more than I assumed and my estimate rises from $3.8 million to $8 million

Legendary Japanese animator Hayao Miyazaki (of My Neighbor Totoro, Spirited Away, and Howl’s Moving Castle acclaim) came out of retirement to make The Boy and the Heron. It flies into North American venues on December 8th after robust business overseas. Unsurprisingly, critics are lauding it (97% RT score) as it might battle Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse at the Oscars. The fantasy arrives with a dubbed version for stateside crowds featuring the voices of Christian Bale, Dave Bautista, Gemma Chan, Willem Dafoe, Karen Fukuhara, Mark Hamill, Robert Pattinson, and Florence Pugh.

After debuting in Japan over the summer and expanding to other nations, it has made $83 million thus far. GKIDS is handling North American distribution and it is said to have the widest release in the studio’s history. That said, I’ve yet to see a theater count and that could alter my projection.

Miyazaki is a bigger draw elsewhere, but he certainly has his ardent fans here. Again, depending on the count, I can’t see this getting below $3 million. Earning over $5 million could be a chore.

The Boy and the Heron opening weekend prediction: $8 million

Toronto Gets Real About American Fiction

The Toronto Film Festival has wrapped and our friends up north have bestowed their People Choice’s Award along with the first and second runner-ups. Just how important is this prize in correlating to a Best Picture spot at the Oscars? Let’s go to the numbers and they’re telling.

Of the last 15 People’s Choice winners from TIFF, 14 received a BP nomination and 5 of them ultimately took the big prize: 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s The King’s Speech, 2013’s 12 Years a Slave, 2018’s Green Book, and 2020’s Nomadland.

When it comes to the 1st and 2nd runners-up, 10 of them in the past 15 cycles have received BP attention. That includes three winners in 2012’s Argo, 2015’s Spotlight, and 2019’s Parasite.

So… it’s a key harbinger to Academy attention. And that’s why it’s a tad surprising that Cord Jefferson’s directorial debut American Fiction is the pick. That’s not because it didn’t get great reviews (it’s at 96% via 24 write-ups on RT). It just snuck up on prognosticators like myself with the TIFF love (there’s not even a trailer yet). The dramedy focused on race relations is now undeniably a factor in awards discussions as it moves towards its November 3rd debut. Jeffrey Wright’s lead performance and the Adapted Screenplay are also in the mix for attention.

The first runner-up, unsurprisingly, is Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers (which many were picking to receive People’s Choice). For Payne, it’s looked at as a return to form after his underwhelming predecessor Downsizing in 2017. This 1970s set Christmas tale appears poised for possible nods in BP (joining earlier Payne efforts Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska) and Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and certainly Original Screenplay.

The Boy and the Heron is Hayao Miyazaki’s latest acclaimed animated feature which opened TIFF. It’s pretty much a given that this will contend in Best Animated Feature though it could be a tall order to overcome frontrunner Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

Here are the facts: TIFF has boosted Fiction in a serious way. Keep an eye on the blog for further Oscar Predictions updates!

Oscar Predictions: The Boy and the Heron

Japanese animation master Hayao Miyazaki is a legendary figure in his field and the 82-year-old announced his retirement a decade ago with The Wind Rises. He even picked up an honorary Academy Award in 2014 based on his body of work which includes classics like My Neighbor Totoro, Kiki’s Delivery Service, and Princess Mononoke.

The Best Animated Feature race at the Oscars didn’t begin until 2001 so those aforementioned titles weren’t in the mix. In 2002, Miyazaki’s Spirited Away won the category’s second prize. Howl’s Moving Castle was nominated in 2005 and The Wind Rises contended in 2013 (the planned career capper losing to Frozen).

Retirement was interrupted by the filmmaker with The Boy and the Heron (titled How Do You Live? in Japan) and it is the premiere title at the Toronto Film Festival. The Studio Ghibli production came out in its native country in July and will be out domestically on December 8th.

Early stateside reviews, unsurprisingly, have resulted in a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. Heron should absolutely nab a spot in the five hopefuls in the animated competition. However, don’t expect it to ever fly past the #2 position. That’s because box office behemoth and critical darling Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse remains firmly perched in first. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

The coming-of-age fantasy Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken joins a crowded animated marketplace when it debuts this weekend. The DreamWorks project may come in behind holdovers Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Pixar’s Elemental on the charts. Awards prospects for Kirk DeMicco’s latest directorial effort may also find it playing catch up with those titles.

Reviews for Kraken are at 78% on Rotten Tomatoes though the positive notices aren’t exactly gushing. DeMicco has been in the Animated Feature mix before with 2013’s The Croods. His follow-up, 2021’s Vivo, had a better RT score than Ruby and failed to make that year’s quintet in the competition.

We know Spidey will be a force to reckon with for the 96th Academy Awards. It’s easily the frontrunner and that may not change. Elemental is likely to grab a spot. We are awaiting potential heavy hitters like July’s How Do You Live? from Hayao Miyazaki and Disney’s Wish this fall.

If those pics and others don’t pan out, perhaps Kraken could nab the fifth slot. I wouldn’t bet on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…