Oscar Predictions: Power Ballad

Power Ballad is the latest musical dramedy in the genre that Irish filmmaker John Carney specializes in. Slated for a June 5th stateside bow, the Lionsgate release features Paul Rudd as a wedding singer who scores an unexpected hit via a fading boy band star (Nick Jonas). The supporting cast includes Peter McDonald, Marcella Plunkett, Haley Rose Liu, and Jack Reynor. Months before the summer premiere, it has been screened this month at the Dublin International Film Festival and South by Southwest.

Carney is best known for 2007’s Once with follow-ups including Begin Again and Sing Street. It sounds like he might have another crowdpleaser on deck. Ballad has scored 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 82% on Metacritic. Some reviews are calling it one of Rudd’s strongest performances.

While awards prospects are likely limited, both Once and Begin Again landed Original Song noms at the Oscars. The song at the center here is “How To Write a Song (Without You)” and it could be a track worth monitoring several months down the line. If Lionsgate puts up a decent campaign in Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes (where Sing Street vied for Best Motion Picture), both the movie and Rudd could contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

AfrAId Box Office Prediction

Sony and Blumhouse are counting on horror fans to show up for AfrAId when it debuts over Labor Day weekend. From director Chris Weitz (whose varied filmography includes About a Boy, The Golden Compass, and The Twilight Saga: New Moon), the cast includes John Cho, Katherine Waterston, Havana Rose Liu, Lukita Maxwell, David Dastmalchian, and Keith Carradine.

At a brisk 84 minutes, the tale of an AI assistant gone rogue is Blumhouse’s latest hope for a genre breakout. They had a banner year in 2023 with M3GAN and Five Nights at Freddy’s. 2024 has been rougher with disappointments Night Swim and Imaginary.

AfrAId is unlikely to bring many real viewers in. For the extended holiday frame, it may struggle to reach double digits. I’ll say it does not.

AfrAId opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million (Friday to Monday projection)

For my Reagan prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Bottoms

After receiving kudos when it screened at South by Southwest in the spring, Emma Seligman’s Bottom raucous teen comedy Bottoms is up in limited release this weekend. It marks the director’s second feature after her acclaimed 2020 debut Shiva Baby, which made its way to a few critical best of lists. Rachel Sennott, who starred in Baby, headlines here. The supporting cast includes Ayo Edebiri, Havana Rose Liu, Kaia Gerber, Nicholas Galitzine, Dagmara Domińczyk, and former NFL star Marshawn Lynch.

As summer 2023 closes out at the box office, this is currently an unlikely winner for best Rotten Tomatoes score of the season at 99%. A number of reviews are calling it an instant classic of its genre.

For awards prospects, a best case scenario could be an Original Screenplay nod or some love in the Musical/Comedy Film competition at the Globes. Like other classics of its genre, a more likely scenario is no attention from voters of those branches as it seeks to achieve cult status. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…