Tag: Haunted Mansion

August 11-13 Box Office Predictions

The box office bonanza that is Barbenheimer looks to return to the 1-2 positions as waterlogged horror entry The Last Voyage of the Demeter is the only newcomer this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Last Voyage of the Demeter Box Office Prediction

Demeter may struggle to make de-money (I apologize). Besides the rather bad title, I’m not seeing this have much bite with genre fans. My mid single digits projection puts it in fifth… distantly.

Barbie should have no trouble maintaining the top spot for the fourth weekend in a row. After scoring the 11th largest third frame in domestic history, my $30M+ take gives it the 11th best fourth outing.

Oppenheimer looks to have the slightest decline of the returnees (perhaps mid 30s) and that could mean a bump from 3rd to 2nd.

That’s because current #2 Meg 2: The Trench seems poised for the heftiest dip. Its B- Cinemascore grade (compared to its predecessor’s B+) could mean a 60% plummet after its solid premiere (more on that below).

The second weekend for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (with its A Cinemascore grade) should be rosier with a mid 40s percent downgrade. If that occurs, the crimefighting reptiles might jump to 3rd with Meg in fourth.

Here’s how I see it all playing out:

1. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $30.4 million

2. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $19 million

3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

4. Meg 2: The Trench

Predicted Gross: $12 million

5. The Last Voyage of the Demeter

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (August 4-6)

I underestimated the giant shark sequel and overestimated the green that the animated reboot would make in respect to Meg 2 and Turtles. As expected, neither came anywhere close to catching Barbie.

The summer smash added another $53 million to its considerable coffers. While that’s under my take of $60.4 million, the $459 domestic cume is astonishing. It also crossed $1 billion worldwide.

Meg 2: The Trench bit off $30 million in second place. That’s well under the $45 million achieved by its predecessor five years back, but ahead of my $24.5 million forecast. The sequel, like the original, will make the bulk of its bucks overseas.

Oppenheimer was third with $29.1 million, right on track with my $29.3 million projection. The acclaimed biopic has amassed $228 million in three weeks.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem generally opened in line with expectations at $28 million from Friday to Sunday and $43 million since its Wednesday bow. I thought it might exceed those numbers and went with $36.1 million and $51.2 million, respectively.

Finally, Haunted Mansion played to empty houses in weekend #2 with a 62% fall in fifth to $9.2 million (I said $11.4 million). The tepid two-week tally is $42 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Keep an eye on the blog this week for my prediction posts on Blue Beetle and Strays and listen to my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your preferred streaming platform…

August 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Pizza loving reptilian crimefighters are back and a giant shark wreaks havoc on humans and animals (again) as Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and Meg 2: The Trench open wide this week. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on the newcomers here:

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Box Office Prediction
Meg 2: The Trench Box Office Prediction

Turtles is getting the best reviews of any picture in the 30 year plus franchise as the animated reboot opens on Wednesday. With positive buzz and a healthy nostalgia factor, mid to high 30s over the traditional weekend and a five-day haul topping $50 million appears to be an achievable level of green.

The competition from Donatello, Michelangelo, Raphael, and Leonardo could hurt Meg 2 a tad. While the 2018 original premiered with $45 million, a mid 20s gross might be all that the sequel bites off.

This means the newbies may lag behind Barbie (for Turtles) and Oppenheimer (for Trench). Greta Gerwig’s take on the iconic doll should easily spend a third weekend atop the charts after a magnificent sophomore hold (more on that below). Oppenheimer could approach nearly $30 million in its third go-round.

Following a lackluster start, Disney’s Haunted Mansion should see a dip of at least 50% for fifth place.

Here’s how I see the pieces falling into place:

1. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $60.4 million

2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $36.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $51.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million

4. Meg 2: The Trench

Predicted Gross: $24.5 million

5. Haunted Mansion

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

Box Office Results (July 28-30)

As mentioned, Barbie was nothing to toy with in its second outing as the phenomenon made off with $93 million (ahead of my $82.6 million prediction). That’s the seventh largest sophomore weekend in box office history between The Avengers and The Super Mario Bros. Movie. My estimate above, incidentally, gives it the seventh best third frame.

Barbie only fell 43% and the same was true for Oppenheimer in second. Christopher Nolan’s Oscar contender took in $46.7 million, reaching a bit higher than my $43.8 million take. The three hour biopic has amassed $174 million thus far.

The Mouse House had another disappointment with Haunted Mansion. With mediocre reviews and scant chatter, the family fright flick was third with $24 million compared to my slightly better $25.4 million projection. Look for it to fade quickly.

Sound of Freedom was fourth with $12.8 million (I said $14.7 million) as the season’s sleeper hit is up to $149 million.

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One rounded out the top five with $10.6 million. My call? $10.6 million! In three weeks, the Tom Cruise sequel has underwhelmed with $139 million.

Finally, A24’s acclaimed low-budget horror pic Talk to Me was a robust sixth with $10.4 million. That’s well beyond my meager guesstimate of $3.6 million. Lesson learned – bet the over on this genre.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Meg 2: The Trench Box Office Prediction

Keeping up with the summer 2023 traditions of dropping the The from its title (Haunted Mansion) and being a follow-up to a 2018 predecessor (Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Insidious: The Red Door, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One), Meg 2: The Trench is in theaters on August 4th. Ben Wheatley takes over directorial duties from Jon Turteltaub with Jason Statham reprising his role as a battler of giant ocean creatures. Costars include Wu Jing, Sophia Cai, Page Kennedy, Sergio Peris-Mencheta, Skyler Samuels, and Cliff Curtis.

Five summers ago, The Meg premiered in August and easily exceeded expectations. Despite so-so reviews, audiences were ready for a shark fix. It opened with $45 million and an eventual $145 million domestic haul. When factoring in bountiful international earnings, The Meg made more than half a billion.

Warner Bros is probably banking on overseas cash for profitability. I’m not sure stateside crowds are exactly chomping at the bit for this sequel. While it should do respectable biz, it may lose some of its demographic to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. I’m expecting that to have a stronger opening than this. The Trench might be lucky to take in $30 or even $25 million.

Meg 2: The Trench opening weekend prediction: $24.5 million

For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem prediction, click here:

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Haunted Mansion

Disney’s second at bat in adapting their theme park attraction to the big screen arrives in theaters this Friday with Haunted Mansion. Directed by Justin Simien (maker of 2014’s acclaimed Dear White People), the cast includes LaKeith Stanfield, Tiffany Haddish, Owen Wilson, Danny DeVito, Rosario Dawson, Dan Levy, current Supporting Actress Oscar recipient Jamie Lee Curtis, and former Supporting Actor winner Jared Leto.

The family friendly horror comedy is drawing mostly indifference from critics. With 55 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, the meter is at 55%. That’s an upgrade over the 14% for The Haunted Mansion from 2003 starring Eddie Murphy. Yet it’s not exactly in Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl territory or even Jungle Cruise with 62%, to compare Mouse House ride based pictures.

Visual Effects or Production Design are really the only races where Mansion would have any opportunity for Academy attention. I guarantee Disney is far more concerned with this turning a profit (which could be a challenge) than any awards campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

July 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (07/26): A rather low reported 1900 screen count for Talk to Me has lowered my estimate from $4.8 million to $3.6 million. That likely leaves it outside of the top six.

After a historic box office weekend, July closes out with a pair of new releases in Disney’s Haunted Mansion and A24’s critically acclaimed Talk to Me. Neither are likely to dislodge the potent 1-2 punch of Barbenheimer. My detailed prediction posts on the newbies are here:

Haunted Mansion Box Office Prediction
Talk to Me Box Office Prediction

I don’t really see audiences clamoring for a fresh spin on Haunted Mansion (nearly 20 years after the one with Eddie Murphy) and buzz seems light. Family crowds should get it to a ho-hum mid 20s gross and that would place it in third.

Even if it made $30-35 million, that wouldn’t mean top two. Those spots are reserved for Barbie and Oppenheimer after their amazing starts (more on that below). The question is how far each dips in weekend #2.

For Barbie, the event status that it took on makes it somewhat naturally front loaded. A worst case decline might be around 55-60%. Considering the A Cinemascore grade and chance for repeat business, I’ll say 45-50% is more feasible and that means low to possibly mid 80s.

Oppenheimer also nabbed an A Cinemascore grade and perhaps some adult viewers are content for the IMAX screenings to be a bit less packed. I’ll say it doesn’t quite fall 50% with a take of over $40 million.

Sound of Freedom should continue its meager percentage decreases while Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One hopes to right the ship after a turbulent two weeks. They should place fourth and fifth, respectively.

While Talk to Me is generating impressive reviews, this could be the type of A24 elevated horror experience that doesn’t bring genre fans out in droves. A lot of them just got their fright fix with Insidious: The Red Door as well.

And with that, here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

1. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $82.6 million

2. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $43.8 million

3. Haunted Mansion

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

4. Sound of Freedom

Predicted Gross: $14.7 million

5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

Box Office Results (July 21-23)

Racking up the fourth highest financial frame in history, Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer gave us the best weekend in over four years.

Barbie captured the zeitgeist and an especially sizable female audience to the tune of $162 million, right on pace with my $160.8 million prediction. That’s the best three-day opening of 2023 and my hunch is that it will remain so. It’s also the #1 premiere for a female directed feature and 20th overall.

Oppenheimer gave Mr. Nolan his personal best third start (after The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight). Blasting beyond my $65.3 million estimate, the three-hour Oscar contender amassed $82.4 million for an astonishing runner-up showing. Those packed IMAX screenings didn’t hurt.

Sound of Freedom was third as it continued its low declines with $19.8 million, just below my $21 million projection. The brilliantly marketed action thriller sits at $124 million.

And this is where the good news stops. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning, after a less than expected opening, had a free fall from 1st to 4th. The Barbenheimer phenomenon helped it plummet 65% to $19.3 million compared to my $25.5 million call. The ten-day tally is $118 million.

Indiana Jones and the Dial Destiny and Insidious: The Red Door were fifth and sixth, respectively. Each made $6.6 million. Indy‘s four-week earnings are at $158 million while Insidious‘s three-week bounty is $71 million.

I incorrectly had Elemental in fifth, but it was seventh with $5.7 million (I said $6.7 million) for $137 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Haunted Mansion Box Office Prediction

Disney is again hoping families wish to check into the Haunted Mansion when it opens July 28th. Based on the half century plus old theme park attraction, Justin Simien directs with a cast featuring LaKeith Stanfield, Tiffany Haddish, Owen Wilson, Danny DeVito, Rosario Dawson, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Jared Leto.

The 2023 version is apparently adhering to the Sean Parker school of thought when it comes to titling. As you may recall, this is now the second pic based on the ride behind 2003’s The Haunted Mansion with Eddie Murphy. It opened over Thanksgiving weekend 20 years ago and grossed a fair $75 million stateside.

I’m not so sure kids are clamoring for a fresh take on this spooky story. Buzz seems quiet and that’s troubling for the Mouse House after the recent commercial disappointment Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Two decades ago, our Mansion with the The had a three-day premiere of $24 million and $34 million over the November holiday. The The less Mansion could open similarly in the mid to high 20s from Friday to Sunday. That’s pretty weak stuff considering we’re not adjusting for inflation.

Haunted Mansion opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million

For my Talk to Me prediction, click here:

Talk to Me Box Office Prediction