Sony hopes horror fans watch Heart Eyes when it debuts February 7th. Josh Ruben directs the scary pic with comedic overtones. Olivia Holt, Mason Gooding, Gigi Zumbado, Michaela Watkins, Devon Sawa, and Jordana Brewster are included in the cast.
Set on Valentine’s Day, Christopher Landon (maker of Happy Death Day and Freaky) cowrote and coproduced. The studio would go gaga if this got anywhere near the mid 20s Happy Day opening weekend haul achieved in 2017.
Don’t look for that to occur. Heart Eyes seems more likely to debut in the $9.8 million range that sequel Happy Death Day 2U had in 2019. I’ll say it manages to get a little more.
Heart Eyes opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million
The joy of witnessing Vince Vaughn in the body of an awkward teenage girl provides intermittent comedic thrills in Christopher Landon’s Freaky. It’s just too bad there aren’t more of them in the latest spotty but certainly watchable low-budget horror flick from the Blumhouse shop. If you have seen the director’s two Happy Death Day pictures, you won’t be surprised he’s behind the camera with this. The first Death reconfigured the Groundhog Day concept to the slasher genre while its sequel veered more toward a sci-fi Back to the Future vibe. Freaky‘s influence is simple and in the title without mentioning the word Friday.
Our body swap involves an urban legend but very real serial killer who goes by the Blissfield Butcher and is played by Vaughn. Millie (Kathryn Newton) is the high schooler mourning the loss of her father while her alcoholic mom coddles her. When the Butcher swipes a mysterious ancient dagger from his previous killing in an attempt to off Millie, it switches their forms. This is just in time for Friday the 13th and they have 24 hours to reverse the effect.
I’ll use this opportunity to praise title cards. I enjoyed how in the lead up to the big day, we see “WEDNESDAY THE 11TH” and “THURSDAY THE 12TH” in bloody scrawl font as if they’re meant to provide a jolt. When Millie does inhabit the Butcher’s 6’5″ frame and has a long pined for romantic moment with her crush, it provides the funniest scene of all (Vaughn’s humorous talents are on full display there).
Yet Freaky is also tonally challenged. Millie’s tragic family dynamics feel slightly forced. The backstory involving that mystical knife called La Dola might be something its makers hope to explain further in a sequel. I’ll credit the screenwriters for finding a couple of Friday the 13th style inventive ways to off lustful adolescents, but the film isn’t exactly scary.
This is more occasionally funny than truly freaky and it ends up being about as entertaining as both Happy Death Day experiences. It succeeds from time to time with its mashup of well known properties, but leaves a bit to be desired.
A slasher version of Freaky Friday comes from the Blumhouse shop with the release of Freaky next weekend. The low budget horror flick features a high school senior (Kathryn Newton) who switches bodies with a serial killer (Vince Vaughn). Christopher Landon (who made Happy Death Day and its sequel) directs and costars include Katie Finneran and Alan Ruck.
Shot for a reported $5 million, its studio has often excelled at turning a tidy profit for its ventures. Early reviews are encouraging with an 87% Rotten Tomatoes rating with particular praise for its two leads. The theatrical window here is unique as it opens on Friday on the 13th and will be available for streaming just three weeks later in early December.
The solid critical reaction and Blumhouse’s marketing talents could push Freaky to make its budget back in the initial weekend. I’ll project that it will.
HappyDeathDay2U gets some props for going into totally different territories as it follows up on the surprise 2017 hit. The original had a simple concept – mix GroundhogDay with a slasher flick. It worked better than it should have with a stellar performance from Jessica Rothe as the bratty day repeater named Tree. Part 1 developed some layers to her character that are important in the sequel. I didn’t expect part 2 to mostly ditch the slasher concept in favor of science fiction. There’s also slapstick comedy with a supporting player pretending to be a blind French woman.
Horror franchises are usually more than happy to repeat themselves. I expected the same here, especially in a movie about repeating yourself over and over. HappyDeathDay2U doesn’t do that. We are reminded about Tree’s earlier predicament. She woke up on the same Monday in the dorm room of Carter (Israel Broussard), hung over and confused. Things got more baffling when it happened again and again. There was no Sonny and Cher music, but you get the gist. The original eventually revealed her roommate was offing her. She also had time to fall in love with Carter.
The sequel finds Carter’s roommate (Phi Vu) experiencing his own demise and deja vu. He has built a quantum reactor in science class with his nerdy schoolmates and it turns out they get an A+. Unfortunately for Tree, it means she begins to travel back to the manic and murderous Mondays yet again.
The jump scares and other slasher elements are in short supply. Instead we get some scientific jargon (there’s more BacktotheFuture references than anything with Bill Murray) and multiverse chatter. Tree’s deceased mom could be back in a dimension. Her roommate that terrorized her in the baby face mask on the first day may not be bad after all.
Part 1 and II might be different in tone, but they share certain things. Rothe’s performance is comedic and satisfying and she shines even more this time around. There are moments of well placed humor. There’s a bit involving skydiving that elicited genuine laughter. Not all the similarities are positive. This, too, runs out of gas before the running time has elapsed. The plot gradually becomes a secondary consideration. I found myself not really caring at all about who was behind the mayhem at the end of the long day. That said, writer/director Christopher Landon deserves some credit for making this day we’ve already experienced one of an alternative genre.
Dreamworks Animation hopes to jolt the box office from a poor President’s Day weekend with the release of franchise finale HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld. We also have the nationwide expansion of the wrestling biopic FightingwithMyFamily entering the ring. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Dragon should have zero trouble opening atop the charts with my mid 40s projection. That puts it in range with its two predecessors.
The fight for the #2 spot could get interesting. This post holiday frame often sees large drops for holdovers. I expect that will apply to current champ Alita: BattleAngel and Isn’tItRomantic in particular. Family has sleeper potential, but I have it falling below Angel and TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart, with Romantic rounding out the top five.
And here are those estimates for a weekend ending with crowning Oscar winners:
1. HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld
Predicted Gross: $44.7 million
2. Alita: BattleAngel
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
3. TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. FightingwithMyFamily
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
5. Isn’tItRomantic
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
BoxOfficeResults (February15–18)
As mentioned, this holiday weekend marked the poorest one for President’s Day (with Valentine’s Day falling on Thursday) in a decade and a half. And it was especially weak considering this frame last year marked the massive debut of BlackPanther. That said, some features managed to exceed my expectations while one in particular definitely didn’t.
Alita: BattleAngel took in $33.5 million from Friday to Monday and $42.2 million counting its Thursday earnings. This is well above my respective predictions of $19.7 million and $24.8 million. So while I certainly failed to give the science fiction action tale its due, this is still underwhelming considering its reported gigantic budget.
TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart dropped to second with $27.7 million, on target with my $27.8 million take. It’s made $62 million in two weeks.
Rom com satire Isn’tItRomantic premiered in third with $16.6 million and $22.8 million since its midweek rollout. That topped my expectations of $14.3 million and $20.7 million.
In its sophomore outing, WhatMenWant was fourth at $12.2 million (I said $13 million). The total is $37 million.
Finally, Blumhouse horror sequel HappyDeathDay2U opened in fifth and that was surprising. I thought it even had at a shot at first, but it earned a measly $11 million over the long weekend and $14.7 million counting Wednesday and Thursday numbers. My forecasts of $22 million and $28.6 million were a little off… However, the silver lining for its studio is that it only cost about $9 million.
It’s the four-day President’s Day weekend at the box office with Valentines Day falling on Thursday. That means the trio of newcomers out are hitting screens during the week. They are Blumhouse horror sequel HappyDeathDay2U, James Cameron penned sci-fi graphic novel adaptation Alita: Battle Angel, and romantic comedy satire Isn’tItRomantic. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Before the weekend began, it was pretty much a given that TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart would repeat rather easily at #1 over this long frame. Now with it’s much less than forecasted debut (more on that below), there’s some uncertainty. What should help is that both DeathDay and Romantic come out on Wednesday with Alita following on Thursday. This particular weekend typically sees small declines for holdovers considering the extra day involved. In 2014, the first LegoMovie dipped a scant 9%. I’ve got the sequel dropping more than that, but I’ve still topping the charts.
That is, of course, if none of the newbies over perform and that’s certainly possible (especially with DeathDay part deux in my opinion). Yet the Wednesday premiere still leads me to think it could be a tad front loaded.
That means I have slots 2-4 reserved for the debuts with WhatMenWant rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.
Here’s how I have the high-five shaking out and keep in mind these projections are for Friday through Monday.
1. TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart
Predicted Gross: $27.8 million
2. HappyDeathDay2U
Predicted Gross: $22 million (Friday to Monday); $28.6 million (Wednesday to Monday)
3. Alita: BattleAngel
Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (Friday to Monday); $24.8 million (Thursday to Monday)
4. Isn’tItRomantic
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (Friday to Monday); $20.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)
5. WhatMenWant
Predicted Gross: $13 million
BoxOfficeResults (February8–10)
It was a weekend with four newcomers and they all came in under my expectations and none more so than TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart. The animated sequel had no problem nabbing the top spot, but it was a hollow victory as it earned $34.1 million. That’s less than half of what its predecessor started with five years ago and well below my $48.6 million prediction. Warner Bros may be forced to rethink the future of the franchise while they cross their fingers for a minimal drop this weekend.
WhatMenWant opened in so-so fashion in second with $18.2 million, below my forecast of $26.4 million. The comedic remake with Taraji P. Henson came in on the low-end of its range.
Same story for ColdPursuit as the Liam Neeson action thriller was third with $11 million (I was higher at $12.8 million). Neeson received all the wrong kinds of publicity in the lead up to the release and it certainly didn’t help.
On a rare positive note for this weekend, TheUpside continued its remarkable hold in fourth with $7 million compared to my $5.8 million take. The gross is currently $85 million as the century club appears assured.
Glass, after two weeks in first, slid to fifth with $6.2 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five and it’s scratching the $100 million mark at $98 million.
Horror flick TheProdigy was sixth with just $5.8 million, in line with my $6.1 million prediction. Look for it to disappear quickly.
Based on a popular Japanese graphic novel, the sci-fi action spectacle Alita: BattleAngel is finally ready for release next Thursday. Robert Rodriguez serves as director with a screenplay from another well-known auteur by the name of James Cameron (as well as Laeta Kalogridis). Rosa Salazar provides the voice and motion capture work for the title character and other cast members include Christoph Waltz, Jennifer Connelly, Mahershala Ali, Ed Skrein, and Jackie Earle Haley.
Alita was originally slated for release last summer before being pushed back to December. The folks at 20th Century Fox moved it from that crowded marketplace to Valentine’s Day. However, other movies should still be a factor. TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart will likely top the charts in its second frame while horror sequel HappyDeathDay2U opens and provides some direct audience competition.
The reported budget here is rumored to be possibly $200 million. The visuals have been praised while the film itself has had a mixed critical reaction (57% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). Alita is tracking to be a disappointment stateside considering the price tag and I agree with that assessment. I’ll say it manages high teens to low 20s for the traditional Friday to Monday portion of the Presidents Day frame, which should mean mid 20s when factoring in the Thursday gross.
Alita: BattleAngel opening weekend prediction: $19.7 million (Friday to Monday); $24.8 million (Thursday to Monday)
Blumhouse looks to continue its impressive streak of low-budget slasher pics that turn hefty profits with the release of sequel HappyDeathDay2U next Wednesday. Christopher Landon is back in the director’s chair along with returning cast members Jessica Rothe, Israel Broussard, and Ruby Modine, in addition to LifeofPi star Suraj Sharma.
In October 2017, HappyDeathDay took its GroundhogDay meets the horror genre to solid box office results. It made $26 million for the opening weekend as its overall haul was front loaded (final gross was $55 million).
Part 2 might premiere with less for the traditional weekend, but the Wednesday debut and following four-day President’s Day frame could boost the six-day to a high 20s overall take.
HappyDeathDay2U opening weekend prediction: $22 million (Friday to Monday); $28.6 million (Wednesday to Monday)
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