Based on the 2016 novel by Ruth Ware, thriller The Woman in Cabin 10 is out on Netflix this weekend. Keira Knightley headlines as a journalist who stumbles upon a murder mystery on a luxury cruise ship. Simon Stone, maker of 2021’s The Dig, directs with a supporting cast including Guy Pearce, Art Malik, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Kaya Scodelario, Daniel Ings and Hannah Waddingham.
Despite compliments about some performances, critics are generally not digging Cabin. The Rotten Tomatoes score is just 25% with 44 on Metacritic. In other words, there’s zero mystery about whether this will be an awards player. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Paramount Animation hopes that Smurfs works for family audiences when it debuts July 18th. Based originally on a Belgian comic book series that turned into 1980s Saturday morning cartoon, Shrek the Third and Puss in Boots maker Chris Miller directs. Rihanna leads the voice cast as Smurfette. Others behind the mic include James Corden, Nick Offerman, JP Karliak, Daniel Levy, Amy Sedaris, Natasha Lyonne, Sandra Oh, Jimmy Kimmel, Octavia Spencer, Nick Kroll, Hannah Waddingham, Alex Sinter, Maya Erskine, Kurt Russell, and John Goodman.
The musical comedy hopes to reinvigorate a series that saw diminishing returns for the blue characters on the silver screen. 2011’s The Smurfs blended live-action with animation to terrific results with a $35 million opening and $142 million domestic haul. The 2013 follow-up essentially cut those earnings in half with an $18 million start and $71 million stateside. Smurfs: The Lost Village in 2017 was fully animated and totally underwhelming with $13 million out of the gate and $45 million overall.
Taking over distribution rights from Sony, Paramount is banking on Rihanna and nostalgia for this to land. That could be a challenge as younger viewers have had options this summer and the IP may not be one they’re even that familiar with.
Indications are that this might be lucky to match even the lowly Village numbers. That could mean just surpassing double digits or low teens.
Smurfs opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million
For my I Know What You Did Last Summer prediction, click here:
In their latest and supposedly final entry in the franchise, Tom Cruise and Christopher McQuarrie choose to extend their mission. Not only does Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning sport the longest running time of the eight features (170 minutes), there’s extra characters to keep up with. You’ll need to extend your knowledge of previous installments for certain plot points and surprise cameos to properly land.
For all the extra padding, the main storyline is not complicated. Kicking off a couple of months after predecessor Dead Reckoning (this was originally Dead Reckoning – Part Two), Cruise’s IMF agent Ethan Hunt and team are still trying to stop The Entity. That’s an AI program whose algorithms equal world destruction, including scenarios where nations turn their nuclear arsenals against one another. Ethan’s Mission buddies include vets Luther (Ving Rhames) and Benji (Simon Pegg) as well as master thief Grace (Hayley Atwell), assassin turned asset Paris (Pom Klementieff), and Theo (Greg Tarzan Davis). That trio were all first seen in Dead Reckoning. Theo is the former partner of Jasper (Shea Whigham) from Dead Reckoning, who doesn’t trust Ethan and is by the side of Henry Czerny’s CIA Director Kittridge.
This whole review could be a rundown of the players in the potential global endgame. Angela Bassett from sixth feature Fallout was Deputy Director of the CIA in that one and is now POTUS. Familiar faces including Hannah Waddingham, Nick Offerman and Janet McTeer are part of her inner circle. I didn’t anticipate Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire being a part of this write-up, but it suffered from too many characters and so does this. That’s the first time I’d say that about a Mission movie. President Bassett and her band of character acting advisors could have been written out entirely and we’d have a leaner viewing to show for it. On the other hand, Tramell Tillman makes the most of his brief role as a submarine commander.
The main human villain continues to be Entity liaison Gabriel (Esai Morales). He shares a checkered past dating back thirty years with Ethan. That was an underdeveloped plot point in Dead Reckoning and it is here. Gabriel is not one of the memorable antagonists in this series.
These Mission‘s have leaned into the stunt work from #4 Ghost Protocol to present. Cruise and McQuarrie’s dedication to coming up with tremendous action set pieces revolves around an underwater task (like in 2015’s Rogue Nation) and another in the skies (reminiscent of Fallout but with older timey aircrafts). That’s not to say these sequences are derivative of what we’ve witnessed before. They’re both excellent with the aquatic part providing white knuckling claustrophobic thrills and the flight acrobatics offering its own delights.
So while Final Reckoning has its defects, the highlights continue to make it a franchise each is worthy of recommendation (and yes I mean Mission: Impossible2 too). Some callbacks to earlier pics are sharper than others. Without spoiling them, a minor character from a major scene in part 1 coming back is fun. Another character’s family tree connection to a former Ethan associate feels more like a stunt. Speaking of stunts, Cruise continues to wow us with his insistence on keeping it real in a storyline about artificiality attempting domination. This might be the finale. I’ll trust him if he changes his mind.
I have talked extensively on the blog about how live-action remakes of Disney pics have received a decent amount of nominations. Titles such as Alice in Wonderland, Cinderella, The Jungle Book, Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, and Cruella lend themselves to races like Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Visual Effects. Even this year’s critical and box office misfire Snow White could land a mention or two.
So where does Lilo & Stitch fit into the equation? Out this weekend, it live-action updates the 2002 original which scored a Best Animated Feature nod. Dean Fleischer Camp directs a cast including Maia Keoloha, Chris Sanders, Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Zach Galifianakis, Billy Magnussen, Courtney B. Vance, Hannah Waddingham, Tia Carrere, Amy Hill, and Jason Scott Lee.
Critical reaction is fair with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 55 Metacritic. This certainly won’t be the first Mouse House feature in this sub genre to land top-of-the-line attention. It also doesn’t correlate well to the tech races mentioned above. Chances are this will receive one less nomination than its source material. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is the eighth feature in the franchise that kicked off nearly 30 years ago and looks to be Tom Cruise’s closing adventure as IMF agent Ethan Hunt. Christopher McQuarrie returns to direct his fourth M:I entry in a row. The supporting cast includes Hayley Atwell, Ving Rhames, Simon Pegg, Henry Czerny, Angela Bassett, Esai Morales, Pom Klementieff, Holt McCallany, Janet McTeer, Nick Offerman, Hannah Waddingham, Shea Whigham, Greg Tarzan Davis, Charles Parnell, and Katy O’Brian.
Opening over Memorial Day weekend, Reckoning has premiered at Cannes to mostly decent reviews with a note of caution. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 88% with Metacritic at 71. The latter score is telling as the two previous installments were at 87 (2018’s Fallout) and 81 (2023’s Dead Reckoning). While praising the action sequences, there are critical complaints about its length and excessive reliance on exposition.
Any hope that Final Reckoning could achieve above-the-line awards nominations as the series bids farewell has fallen by the wayside. On the other hand, predecessor Dead Reckoning was the first Mission to generate Oscar nods and they were in Sound and Visual Effects. This could do the same with Sound as perhaps a better possibility. As you may have seen, the Academy Awards will implement a category honoring stunt ensembles. However, that won’t be until 2028. The Mission‘s probably would’ve flourished in those competitions but it wasn’t to be. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.
23 summers ago, Disney’s animated Lilo & Stitch narrowly opened in second to Minority Report with Tom Cruise. This Memorial Day weekend, the Mouse House’s live-action (and also animated) remake will attempt to outpace Cruise’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. That’s a mission it should achieve with room to spare.
Dean Fleischer Camp, maker of the acclaimed Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, is behind the camera. Chris Sanders, who wrote and directed the 2002 original, still provides the voice of Stitch with Maia Keoloha as Lilo. The supporting cast includes Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Billy Magnussen, Hannah Waddingham, Courtney B. Vance, Zach Galifianakis, Tia Carrere, Amy Hill, and Jason Scott Lee.
Expectations are high for a project that once was anticipated to be a Disney+ streaming premiere. Tracking suggests a nine digit performance over the holiday frame. The studio is no stranger to Memorial Day outputs and that includes these remakes. In 2019, Aladdin took in $91 million from Friday to Sunday and $116 million when factoring in Monday. Two years ago, The Little Mermaid made $95 million for the three-day and $118 million over four.
Lilo took in $273 million worldwide for its run nearly a quarter century ago and spawned direct-to-video sequels. A nostalgia factor and a dearth of competition for family audiences (as A Minecraft Movie winds down) could mean an even stronger opening than the aforementioned titles. I’ll say it manages to get close to $120 million from Friday to Sunday and over $140 million adding Monday. That would give it the second all-time Memorial weekend behind Top Gun: Maverick (more Cruise comparisons!) and just ahead of Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men’s Chest.
Lilo & Stitch opening weekend prediction: $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $196.6 million (Friday to Monday)
For my Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning prediction, click here:
Before becoming a SAG and Golden Globe winner for his heralded role on Apple TV’s Ted Lasso, Jason Sudeikis was part of one of SNL’s finest ensembles in the show’s first half century of existence. He earns the 47 spot in my top 50 cast members.
Sudeikis memorably played Mitt Romney and Joe Biden while also channeling The Devil in Update bits and appearing alongside Kristin Wiig as one half of the A-Holes. Sudeikis was occasionally overshadowed by costars who will appear higher on this list, but he was a glue guy in a top SNL era. #46 will be up soon!
We all know Tom Cruise does his own stunts. He reminds us of that frequently and is the biggest artist handling the bulk of those duties himself. David Leitch’s The Fall Guy takes time to honor those performers doubling for the non-Cruisers and that’s a noble cause though it often plays like a long shaggy dog story.
Sort of based on the 1980s TV show with Lee Majors, Ryan Gosling is Colt Seavers. He’s Cliff Booth to Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s Rick Dalton… or rather Tom Ryder, who’s a mega action superstar with a penchant for hard partying. Seavers does the trickier work while Ryder takes all the credit. A prologue details a setup gone wrong that derails Colt’s career and his budding relationship with camerawoman Jody Moreno (Emily Blunt).
A year and a half later, Colt is parking cars instead of crashing them. He is summoned by producer Gail (Hannah Waddingham, kind of looking like 70s era Robert Evans in a wig) to set in Sydney. The selling point is the opportunity to make up with Jody, who is now directing the sci-fi saga Metalstorm with Ryder headlining. Upon his arrival down under, it turns out Jody has no idea what’s up or that he was joining the production.
The picture’s lead has mysteriously disappeared and Colt is tasked with tracking him down while also stunting by day. And, of course, there’s some serious and humorous tension with his ex.
I was reminded at times of 80s action comedies like Beverly Hills Cop or Fletch where the plot is inconsequential and where coasting on the above the title players’ charisma is enough. Obviously Gosling and Blunt have that level of appeal.
Somehow I didn’t fall for it despite their efforts. They have chemistry, but this fails to coast on their charms. The action scenes are well-choreographed. They should be given the subject matter and Leitch (John Wick, Atomic Blonde, Bullet Train) in charge. Yet there’s not one sequence that rivals, say, the antics of you know who in fill in the recent Mission: Impossible entry.
There are more references to Miami Vice or other 80s artifacts than the TV show it takes its name from. This includes Jody belting out “Against All Odds” by Phil Collins at a karaoke bar while Colt is engaged in an elaborate car chase. Blunt being more involved in the fights might have helped. Her one scene where she gets to do so is memorable.
The Fall Guy, given the personnel, is a minor disappointment especially with how convoluted it gets in the denouement. The occasionally on point self-referential jokes and the Barbenheimer cast mates provide the highlights. When they’re apart, it can feel like just an empty space.
Our nation’s most famous lasagna adoring orange cat hits theaters this Memorial Day weekend with The Garfield Movie. A year after (somewhat controversially) providing the voice of Mario in The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Chris Pratt does the same for this title character. Other notable thespians lending their talents are Samuel L. Jackson, Hannah Waddingham, Ving Rhames, Nicholas Hoult, Cecily Strong, Harvey Giuillén, Brett Goldstein, Bowen Yang, Janelle James, and Snoop Dogg. Mark Dindal directs.
Even the fresher reviews for Garfield mostly call it nothing more than a pleasant diversion. The Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at a meager 55%. Mario didn’t manage any attention in the Animated Feature race and Pratt’s latest contribution to animation won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving 20 years after the live-action version Garfield: The Movie based on the comic strip from Jim Davis, The Garfield Movie hits multiplexes this Memorial Day weekend. Mark Dindal, who made Disney’s The Emperor’s New Groove and Chicken Little, directs. Chris Pratt, after providing the vocal stylings for Mario in The Super Mario Bros. Movie last year, mics up for the iconic tabby cat. Other voice work comes from Samuel L. Jackson, Hannah Waddingham, Ving Rhames, Nicholas Hoult, Cecily Strong, Harvey Guillén, Brett Goldstein, Bowen Yang, Janelle James, and Snoop Dogg.
The aforementioned Garfield: The Movie from two decades ago (which led to a classic comedy line from Bill Murray in Zombieland) took in $21 million for starters and $75 million overall domestically. The 2006 sequel Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties was the equivalent of cinematic kitty litter with only $28 million total in its coffers.
This animated rendering seems poised for better results than what happened several years ago. The holiday frame should bring families out in droves and competition from the second weekend of IF may only be a minor threat.
For the Friday to Monday frame, I believe this could get a little north of $40 million.
The Garfield Movie opening weekend prediction: $41.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga prediction, click here:
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