Tag: Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert

October 20-22 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (10/18): And it’s a big one… by lowering my projection of Killers from $38.7 million to $32.7 million, that puts Eras at #1 for the second weekend in a row.

Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio’s sixth collaboration faces off against Taylor Swift’s second cinematic touring weekend as Oscar hopeful Killers of the Flower Moon blossoms on Friday. It could shape up to be a close battle for the top spot. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Killers here:

Killers of the Flower Moon Box Office Prediction

With rave reviews and awards buzz, Moon could fill multiplexes up with adult moviegoers who turned Oppenheimer into a smash hit over the summer. While it won’t reach as high, I believe a low 30s premiere is certainly doable.

Whether that puts it in first is a huge question mark. That’s because the sophomore frame of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is tricky to figure out. The concert doc didn’t reach the lofty expectations that kept rising prior to its start (more on that below). Yet it still scored a massive debut that set every record possible for its genre. The deal that Ms. Swift cut with theaters is a unique one, to say the least. Eras is not playing on Mondays, Tuesdays, or Wednesdays. That could certainly increase the demand during the second weekend. However, it probably goes without saying that its gross is likely to be front loaded due to her fans rushing out to see it (a whole bunch of its business came from presales). I’ll be honest. I’m at a loss for how far it dips coming up. I will speculate high 60s to possibly low 70s and that would put it just behind my Killers estimate.

Holdover sequels of the horror and family variety should fill the 3-5 slots as The Exorcist: Believer, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, and Saw X look to post decent holds in the 30s-low 40s range.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Predicted Gross: $35.6 million

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

Predicted Gross: $32.7 million

3. The Exorcist: Believer

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

4. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

5. Saw X

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

Box Office Results (October 13-15)

It isn’t often that Taylor Swift doesn’t reach the levels of financial success that are anticipated, but it might have been a case of expectations being too sky high. The Eras Tour was projected to top the all-time October weekend record held by Joker at $96 million. I had it doing so with room to spare at $139.6 million. It wasn’t to be as it achieved the second largest debut at $92.8 million. By the way, that triples the previous best concert doc start held by Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour. In other words, it’s still a rather remarkable performance.

The Exorcist: Believer dropped to second with an understandable $10.9 million, a bit above my $9.7 million take. The direct sequel to the 1973 classic sits at $44 million after ten days as it hopes for meager declines as we approach Halloween.

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was third with $6.8 million (on pace with my $6.6 million forecast) for $49 million after three weeks.

Saw X reaped the benefit of horror fans looking for a scare. Dropping just 28%, Jigsaw and company took in $5.6 million compared to my $4.1 million prediction. Total is $41 million thus far.

The Creator rounded out the top five at $4.3 million (I said $3.5 million) for a three-week tally of just $32 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour Box Office Prediction

Taylor Swift has proven over and again that she’s money in the bank when it comes to album and tour sales, merchandise, and even viewership for NFL games. The singer is about to enter her box office queen era when Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour hits theaters on October 13th. The concert film struck a distribution deal with AMC and Cinemark and the Friday the 13th (Taylor’s lucky number) drop date caused studios to shift their release patterns. For example, The Exorcist: Believer moved up a week to avoid direct confrontation.

Presales are already robust. It earned $37 million on the first day of tickets being available online. That means that in one day, it surpassed the best opening weekend for a concert pic ever. The record was held by Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: The Beth of Both Worlds Concert at $31 million, followed by Justin Bieber: Never Say Never with $29 million, and then This Is It with Michael Jackson at $23 million.

It goes without saying that the Swifties will cause this to shatter every previous best of mark for the concert genre. Just how high is the only real question. Swift’s previous filmography is littered with financial disappointments like Cats and Amsterdam. However, she wasn’t the focal point of either and her star has continued to rise.

The price of admission will be elevated at nearly $20 a pop for adults and that will push the earnings up. Some initial projections have this in the $100-120 million range out of the gate. I’ll admit that it’s a little murky as to how much this could bring in. This may not come as a shocker, but my gut says overestimating is smarter than underestimating when it comes to this show’s central figure. I’ll go above the forecast and give it the third best domestic frame of 2023 behind Barbie and The Super Mario Bros. Movie.

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour opening weekend prediction: $139.6 million