Tag: Hailey Gates

Oscar Predictions: The Drama

Zendaya and Robert Pattinson bring The Drama to multiplexes this weekend with Kristoffer Borgli (Dream Scenario) directing. As a couple whose wedding faces unanticipated challenges, the leads are looking for a large female audience over the Easter frame. Mamoudou Athie, Alana Haim, Hailey Gates, and Zoē Winters costar.

The two leads are gearing up for appearances over the next couple of years in their Spider-Man, Dune (they’ll appear in the third feature together), and Batman franchises. Despite various acclaimed performances in non-franchise fare, neither Zendaya or Pattinson have found an awards vehicle.

The Drama is unlikely to be that. While it has 81% on Rotten Tomatoes, the 59 on Metacritic indicates the mixed reaction that has greeted it. I’m not seeing a scenario where this becomes an Oscar player. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Drama Box Office Prediction

Taking a break from their high profile franchises (albeit briefly), Zendaya and Robert Pattinson headline the relationship tale The Drama on April 3rd. Written and directed by Kristoffer Borgli (Dream Scenario) and described as both a dark comedy and romantic thriller, it will try and find a large female audience over the Easter holiday. Mamoudou Athie, Alana Haim, Hailey Gates, and Zoë Winters provide support.

The film’s leads will be seen together this December in Dune: Part Three and that will certainly be their biggest 2026 hit. However, The Drama has breakout potential due to its star power and counter programming ability while The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary dominate the charts.

A worst case scenario might be double digits or low teens and failing to match the $15 million that Zendaya’s Challengers opened with two years ago. A dream scenario would be anything beyond $20 million. I think that’s achievable, but I’ll project mid to higher teens.

The Drama opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million

For my The Super Mario Galaxy Movie prediction, click here:

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Atropia

The Grand Jury Prize at the Sundance Film Festival has been bestowed to eventual Best Picture nominees and one winner six times in the 21st century. That list includes 2009’s Precious, Winter’s Bone from 2010, 2012’s Beasts of the Southern Wild and 2014’s Whiplash, 2020’s Minari, and the victorious CODA of 2021. There’s plenty that never came close to Oscar’s radar such as Like Crazy or The Miseducation of Cameron Post and Nanny.

Atropia seems destined to fall into the latter grouping. The satire from Hailey Gailes unexpectedly took Park City’s top award. Alia Shawkat (known by many from Arrested Development), Callum Turner, Chloë Sevigny, and Tim Heidecker headline. The surprise nature of the Jury designation is due to subpar reviews. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 42% with a 46 Metacritic. That reaction is unlikely to allow this into the Academy’s consciousness. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…