Tag: Guy Pearce

97th Academy Awards Predictions: August 20th Edition

In eights days, the Venice Film Festival will get underway followed the next day by Telluride and followed by Toronto the following week. The trio of events, as they always do, kick off a flurry of awards activity and dozens of Oscar Prediction posts on this blog. The fests in Italy, Colorado, and Canada will make the picture for the 97th Academy Awards considerably clearer.

As you peruse the titles listed below, here are just some which will debut at one or more of the festivals: Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The End, Maria, Nightbitch, Babygirl, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, The Fire Inside, Hard Truths, We Live in Time, The Wild Robot, Piece by Piece, and The Last Showgirl.

The plan is for my next update to arrive on Labor Day. By that time, quite a few of these titles will already have eyeballs on them and reviews will be written. Consider this the penultimate forecast before it gets really real.

This update comes with a pair of changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) enters my quintet with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) dropping out. Speaking of Conclave, John Lithgow is now in my Supporting Actor five over his costar Stanley Tucci.

You can peruse all the movement below as festival season is nearly upon us!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (E)

12. Saturday Night (PR: 18) (+6)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 12) (-3)

16. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (-1)

18. Maria (PR: 17) (-1)

19. The End (PR: 20) (+1)

20. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (-1)

21. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 24) (+2)

23. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

24. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Fire Inside

Here

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Marielle Heller, Nightbitch

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (E)

12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothèe Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tom Hanks, Here

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Selena Gomez, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (E)

12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Glenn Close, The Deliverance

Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (E)

15. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Raci, Sing Sing

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The End (PR: 9) (+1)

9. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dídi (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Maria (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Challengers (PR: 12) (E)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

A Different Man

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12 (E)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 13) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Caught by the Tides (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)

9. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Uprising (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kneecap

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Land (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (E)

8. Union (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anora (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Challengers (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maria (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nightbitch

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

The Piano Lesson

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Wicked (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (-1)

7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maria

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

9. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez

Twisters

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wicked (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Mufasa: The Lion King

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz

8 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

6 Nominations

Gladiator II, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

2 Nominations

A Different Man, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, Challengers, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, The Outrun, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

Memory Box Office Prediction

Can Memory reverse the string of forgettable Liam Neeson pics we’ve seen lately or will it fall in line with his recent underwhelming performers? Slated for April 29th, this casts him as an assassin dealing with cognitive lapses. Martin Campbell (who kicked off the Brosnan and Craig 007 eras with Goldeneye and Casino Royale) directs. He most recently helmed the lackluster The Protege with Maggie Q and Michael Keaton.  Costars include Guy Pearce (who starred in the acclaimed Memento which covered similar themes) and Monica Bellucci.

It’s been nearly a decade and a half since Neeson resurged his career with Taken. This second life as an action star resulted in some hits, but there’s been more misses recently. The Marksman and Blacklight took in $3.7 and $3.5 million, respectively, in the COVID era. I see no reason why Memory wouldn’t suffer a similar fate and the gross may even dip a bit.

Memory opening weekend prediction: $3.3 million

Bloodshot Box Office Prediction

Two months before F9 (the latest edition of his wildly successful Fast & Furious franchise) debuts, Vin Diesel hopes to kick off a new series with Bloodshot next weekend. Based on the Valiant Comics superhero, Diesel is tasked with the title role in this directorial debut from David S.F. Wilson. The supporting casts includes Eiza Gonzalez, Sam Heughan, Toby Kebbell, and Guy Pearce.

Diesel is certainly a franchise man with three under his belt: Furious, xXx, and the Riddick pics (four if you count his voice work as Groot in the MCU). The $42 million budget is low for the genre and probably the catering cost for an Avengers epic. So while the pic hopes international grosses make it profitable, this could struggle stateside.

Outside of the aforementioned films, Diesel has had some disappointments. 2015’s The Last Witch Hunter was developed with sequels in mind, but sputtered with just under $11 million for its start. 2008’s Babylon A.D. couldn’t even reach double digits in its premiere.

With muted buzz, I expect Bloodshot to fire blanks with high single to low double digits. At least the headliner has his signature role on deck in short order.

Bloodshot opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million

For my I Still Believe prediction, click here:

I Still Believe Box Office Prediction

For my The Hunt prediction, click here:

The Hunt Box Office Prediction

For my My Spy prediction, click here:

My Spy Box Office Prediction

Alien: Covenant Movie Review

Ridley Scott is now nearly 40 years into his Alien franchise which started with his 1979 classic and preceded Alien: Covenant with the often confounding Prometheus from 2012. Scott has now made half of the six series entries. In many ways, this latest one is the least effective of all. It’s not bad and I’d say none of them have been (middling, yes). Covenant, however, lies in a strange place. The dark visual splendor and occasional jump horror scares are present at times. Memorable characters are not and that’s different than when we were rolling with Ripley (Sigourney Weaver) and others. The film is indeed a sequel to Prometheus, which was more of an existential exercise about where we come from and not a traditional xenomorph flick. Covenant wants to cover that territory, as well as bringing H.R. Geiger’s famed creature more in the frame.

There’s another crew in deep space and they’re on a colonization mission occurring a decade after the events of Prometheus. The membership of this crew (the Covenant) differs from previous ones in that they’re married couples. When a malfunction on the ship wakes them from their long slumber, they must deal with that quickly. A longer term problem is an unexpected xenomorph presence onboard which soon causes a growing widow population.

Katherine Waterston is Daniels and she’s basically new Ripley, but not as interesting. Danny McBride brings a little gravitas to the party as Tennessee, the ship’s pilot. Billy Crudup is the anointed captain. Yet it’s a Prometheus holdover that gets the most attention. Michael Fassbender is back as David, the android who stood out in the predecessor. When the crew must land on a planet they weren’t supposed to, they find him. Finding out what he’s been up to since the end of Prometheus takes up plenty of screen time. Fassbender doubles his time as he also plays Walter, a newer model droid that part of the Covenant crew. Their dynamic is somewhat intriguing in moments, but I never got over one big issue. I simply wasn’t begging for the unanswered Prometheus questions to be filled in, as that picture didn’t ultimately warrant the curiosity.

The talented Mr. Ridley never struggles to master production design and visuals. True here. And he strives to bring the gory action that we previously expected from this franchise. It’s here, but the mayhem is inflicted upon characters we won’t remember for long and with a xenomorph who’s popped out of better written people before.

** (out of four)

Alien: Covenant Box Office Prediction

Five years after director Ridley Scott returned to the franchise that got his career going, he’s back behind the camera again for Alien: Covenant next weekend. This is the sixth installment in the series that Scott began 38 years ago with the beloved Alien. 

That love did not quite extend to 2012’s Prometheus, which drew mixed audience and critical response. Michael Fassbender returns as android Walter with a cast including Katherine Waterston, Billy Crudup, Danny McBride, Demian Bichir, reported return appearances from Noomi Repace and Guy Pearce, and James Franco apparently.

Five years ago, Prometheus opened to $51 million but its so-so buzz meant a front loaded overall gross of $126M. Reviews for Covenant have been mostly solid and it stands at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes. One encouraging sign: several critics have noted this gets the franchise back to its horror roots unlike its predecessor.

It’s also said to be a direct sequel to Prometheus and one wonders if the bad taste it left in some mouths will prevent this from topping it. I’ll predict Covenant does not reach the $50M+ achieved half a decade ago and that mid 40s seems more feasible.

Alien: Covenant opening weekend prediction: $44.6 million

For my Diary of a Wimpy Kid, The Long Haul prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/11/diary-of-a-wimpy-kid-the-long-haul-box-office-prediction/

For my Everything, Everything prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/12/everything-everything-box-office-prediction/