Ranking the Superhero Summers

We’re past the midway point of the 2017 summer box office and one thing is clear: it’s been a rather terrific season for the superhero flick genre. In fact, there’s a very good chance the summer’s top 3 earners will belong in that classification. That’s not the first time this has happened (more on that later), but it’s still pretty remarkable.

This got me thinking – what have been the greatest and worst superhero summers of this 21st century? After all, it was the summer of 2000 that got the superhero genre alive and kicking again and it’s never let up. 17 summers ago, it was the release of X-Men that helped revive a genre that had hit a low point three summers earlier with Batman & Robin. In 2002, it would be Spider-Man that would set the opening weekend record and ensure that no summer following would be missing some comic book character headlining. **2001 is the only summer of this century in which there’s no superhero pic.

This leads to my newest list: ranking the superhero summers with explanations provided below. We’re talking 17 summers, so I’m counting down from the worst to the best in my humble opinion.

17. 2009

The Movie: X-Men Origins: Wolverine

Just one flick in this particular summer. The Marvel Cinematic Universe had just kicked off the year before, so there was no follow-up ready. Instead, we got Wolverine’s first spin-off and it’s the worst of the whole bunch by a significant margin.

16. 2007

The Movies: Spider-Man 3, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer

The third Spidey entry closed the Sam Raimi/Tobey Maguire on a very weak note and the Four sequel was none too impressive either (to be expected after a middling at best predecessor).

15. 2010

The Movie: Iron Man 2

Tony Stark’s return to the screen after 2008’s juggernaut suffered from being overstuffed with two many villains, etc… One of the lesser MCU entries.

14. 2006

The Movies: X-Men: The Last Stand, Superman Returns

Two pics that failed to meet expectations – The Last Stand suffered a big quality drop-off after the second X and Superman Returns (the first Supes flick in nearly 20 years) couldn’t live up to the hype.

13. 2015

The Movies: Avengers: Age of Ultron, Ant-Man, Fantastic Four

Disappointing as it featured two of the weaker MCU entries and a seriously misguided Fantastic Four reboot.

12. 2013

The Movies: Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, The Wolverine

IM3 was an improvement over part 2, The Wolverine was an improvement over Origins. Man of Steel? A letdown in many respects, just like Superman Returns.

11. 2004

The Movies: Spider-Man 2, Catwoman

Would probably rank higher because Spidey 2 is arguably the best of the bunch, but loses points due to the catastrophe that is Halle Berry as Catwoman.

10. 2016

The Movies: Captain America: Civil War, Suicide Squad, X-Men: Apocalypse 

A mixed bag. Civil War is one of the finer MCU pics, Squad is that mixed bag, and Apocalypse was a major disappointment.

9. 2003

The Movies: X2: X-Men United, Hulk

X2 is perhaps the strongest X entry, but Ang Lee’s Hulk (while having its moments) was often a pretentious bore.

8. 2000

The Movie: X-Men

Only X-Men in this summer, but it deserves props for kicking off the genre in a major way once again.

7. 2002

The Movie: Spider-Man

Even more than X-Men, Sam Raimi’s first Spidey ensured a heaping of genre entries for years to come.

6. 2014

The Movies: Guardians of the Galaxy, X-Men: Days of Future Past, The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Guardians was pure joy, Past was a solid X pic. Loses points for the mess of a Spidey sequel.

5. 2005

The Movies: Batman Begins, Fantastic Four

OK, so Fantastic Four was not so good. Yet this is in my top 5 because Batman Begins not only kicked off the heralded Nolan trilogy, but it’s my personal fave superhero pic of the century.

4. 2011

The Movies: Thor, Captain America: First Avenger, X-Men: First Class

Though not of these flicks are great, they’re all solid in my view. Thor and Captain helped usher in the MCU era as we know it and First Class rebooted its franchise in a pleasing way.

3. 2012

The Movies: The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider-Man

Avengers is the granddaddy of MCU, Rises ended up the trilogy in a mostly satisfactory manner while Spidey was a slight letdown (though miles better than its sequel). As referenced earlier, these 3 pictures would mark the highest 3 earners of that season.

2. 2017

The Movies: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Wonder Woman, Spider-Man: Homecoming

Three highly entertaining and well-done entries that marked the first super-heroine success.

1. 2008

The Movies: The Dark Knight, Iron Man, The Incredible Hulk, Hellboy II: The Golden Army

The Dark Knight is considered by many to be the genre’s artistic peak and Iron Man was a fine start to a franchise that just keeps charging along. Incredible was a more satisfying (though still flawed) Hulk pic than five years earlier and Guillermo del Toro brought his visual splendor and humor once again to the Hellboy series. A rather easy pick for #1.

Or is it? What are your thoughts on the superhero summers?

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Movie Review

It’s all about family in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, the follow-up to the wildly successful 2014 entry into the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Three years ago, Star-Lord, Gamora and company brought a humor and irreverence to the comic book picture previously unseen at that level. Of course, we saw flashes of it with Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man and others, but Guardians felt fresh with its Top 40 oldies soundtrack and constantly winking screenplay.

James Gunn is back as writer and director and the elements that made the predecessor successful are here again. Our second helping manages to provide enough material to admire, even if it can’t match what made the first one so special. We have a lot of subplots competing for screen time as the MCU continues to expand. The bulk of the characters here and elsewhere in Avengers world will eventually congregate and it’ll be a real test of script allocation for attention.

The attention here primarily focuses on Star-Lord (Chris Pratt) and his backstory. As we recall from the original, he’s got some Daddy issues and after three decades plus, he mets him in the form of Ego (Kurt Russell). Dad is a part human and part Godlike being who quickly seduces his offspring with his nifty own planet that’s a marvel itself in production design.

The other Guardians are here with Gamora (Zoe Saldana) still dealing with her super jealous sister Nebula (Karen Gillian) and unspoken chemistry with Star-Lord. Drax (Dave Bautista) reminds us that he can charmingly insult people with the best of them and a lot of that is saved for Ego’s right-hand woman Mantis (Pom Klementieff). And Rocket (voice of Bradley Cooper) and Baby Groot (Vin Diesel’s vocal stylings) return to provide comic relief. The nefarious Rocket and seriously adorable Groot are certainly allotted their share of smile inducing moments. Our family drama also means the return of Yondu (Michael Rooker doing fine work under all that makeup), who raised Star-Lord.

Pratt reminds us why Guardians rocketed him into silver screen stardom and Russell, with swagger to match, is an inspired casting choice. The action sequences are of the highest caliber and I’ll give the opening battle sequence credit for incorporating recent Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductees Electric Light Orchestra.

So while Vol. 2 is totally acceptable popcorn entertainment, it didn’t leave me grinning from ear to ear like during the first one’s conclusion. Perhaps the attitude that made 2014’s pic so effective feels more familiar now (Deadpool in its own more R rated way continued that trend). Perhaps there are too many plot lines competing against themselves. And perhaps the revelations in the aforementioned familial situations are a bit predictable. That said, Vol. 2 keeps the MCU assembly line pleasantly humming along.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

The summer movie season has officially kicked off today with the release of Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. The sequel to the 2014 blockbuster is expected to rake in tons of dough and reviews has mostly been solid (its Rotten Tomatoes score sits at 82%).

No superhero tale has managed a Best Picture nomination at the Academy Awards. The Dark Knight and Deadpool may have come close, but didn’t make the final cut. That certainly will not change here, but Vol. 2 could be a factor in some down the line races.

The first Guardians nabbed two nods three years ago – for Best Visual Effects and Makeup and Hairstyling. It would stand to reason that this follow-up could score nominations in both of those races once again and possibly one or two of the Sound categories. It probably won’t win any gold statues, but it could add to the variety of technical categories that the Marvel Cinematic Universe has amassed in the last few years.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction

The summer of 2017 kicks off as it has numerous times before in recent seasons – with a major Disney/Marvel production expected to post gargantuan box office numbers. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 follows up the blockbuster that turned out to be the biggest hit of summer 2014.

James Gunn returns to direct, as does the superhero cast of Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, and the vocal work of Bradley Cooper and Vin Diesel (as Baby Groot this time around). Also back are Glenn Close and Michael Rooker. Joining the mix in the sequel are Tango (Sylvester Stallone) and Cash (Kurt Russell)!

There is little doubt that Vol. 2 will post impressive results and quite easily outdo what its predecessor opened at three summers ago. Flashback to 2014 and Guardians was actually considered a risk. Strong reviews and word-of-mouth propelled it to a $94 million premiere and $333 million overall domestic haul. Expectations for the opening here are much higher. $150 million seems to be the low bar. Critical reaction to the sequel has been mostly encouraging and it stands at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes, with most reviewers saying it doesn’t quite match the freshness of the original.

A better comparison to its potential could be last summer’s Captain America: Civil War, opened the 2016 season with $179 million or Iron Man 3, which started off summer 2013 with $174 million. I’m predicting Guardians won’t quite reach those numbers, but come close.

My Vol. 2 projection puts it at the 9th largest domestic opening of all time, in between Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. My estimate gives it the 5th highest debut in both the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the month of May and second biggest 2017 bow after March’s Beauty and the Beast. 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 opening weekend prediction: $166.4 million

The Belko Experiment Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, the horror thriller The Belko Experiment debuts in theaters and it will attempt to serve as counter programming to Disney’s likely box office behemoth Beauty and the Beast. That could be an uphill battle.

Belko comes from director Greg McLean, who last helmed 2016’s underwhelming performer The Darkness. Its screenwriter is of more note – James Gunn, who directed Guardians of the Galaxy and its upcoming May sequel. The pic is set in Bogota, Columbia with a group of employees pitted against one another in a violent social experiment. Stars include John Gallagher Jr., Tony Goldwyn, Adria Arjona, John C. McGinley, and Michael Rooker.

This debuted last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to so-so buzz and it currently sits at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes. The marketing campaign has been rather soft and it’s only slated to open on about 1200 screens.

Add that up and I believe Belko will debut poorly and fade quickly.

The Belko Experiment opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my Beauty and the Beast prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/08/beauty-and-the-beast-box-office-prediction/

xXx: Return of Xander Cage Box Office Prediction

Lest ye forget, the Fast and Furious series isn’t the only franchise that Vin Diesel has been a part of and I’m not talking about Riddick or Guardians of the Galaxy. Next weekend, Mr. Diesel returns in the title role of xXx: Return of Xander Cage. 

In 2002, the star (hot off the first Fast feature) headlined summer action blockbuster xXx, which opened to $44 million with an eventual $142M domestic haul. Yet, just like the first Furious sequel, he decided to sit out the follow-up, xXx: State of the Union which featured Ice Cube instead. That one didn’t fare so well with just a $12 million debut and $26M overall gross.

Cage finds D.J. Caruso taking over the directorial duties with a supporting cast that includes Samuel L. Jackson, Donnie Yen, Toni Collette, Ruby Rose, Deepika Padukone, Nina Dobrev, and Tony Jaa. The question is: will moviegoers return to the super spy action series nearly 15 years after the original?

The answer: to an extent. Diesel has obviously gotten max exposure in recent years with the well-received Furious extravaganzas. There is the cautionary tale of 2015’s The Last Witch Hunter, which he hoped would turn into a franchise but sputtered with just $27 million domestically. xXx may earn that and then some in its first weekend of release. I’ve got it pegged in the mid to high 20s and even though that’s not reaching what the first Cage opus made a decade and a half ago, it’s OK.

xXx: Return of Xander Cage opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million

For my Split prediction, click here:

Split Box Office Prediction

For my The Founder prediction, click here:

The Founder Box Office Prediction

For my 20th Century Women prediction, click here:

20th Century Women Box Office Prediction

For my The Resurrection of Gavin Stone prediction, click here:

The Resurrection of Gavin Stone Box Office Prediction

Doctor Strange Box Office Prediction

The Marvel Cinematic Universe’s mega billion dollar alliance with Disney rolls along as Doctor Strange opens in theaters next weekend. Based on the character created by Steve Ditko over a half century ago, this is the 14th entry in the MCU that began with Iron Man in 2008.

And that first Tony Stark pic over eight years ago is the film many critics are comparing the Doctor to. Benedict Cumberbatch is the title character with a stellar supporting cast that includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Rachel McAdams, Tilda Swinton, Benedict Wong, Michael Stuhlbarg, Benjamin Bratt, and Mads Mikkelsen. Scott Derrickson (most known for horror flicks such as The Exorcism of Emily Rose and Sinister) directs. Advance word of mouth for the reported $165 million has been quite encouraging, with reviewers praising Cumberbatch’s performance, the striking visuals, and an origin story said to be satisfying in the way that Iron Man’s was. It stands at 97% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.

This is only the second MCU feature to open in the autumn season. 2013’s sequel Thor: The Dark World premiered to $85.7 million in early November. That’s probably the range that Strange is looking to debut at, but I’m not sure it’ll quite get there. I certainly don’t see it reaching the $94 million accomplished by Star Lord and his Guardians of the Galaxy or the $98 million that Robert Downey Jr.’s signature character got the first time out of the gate. Yet I see it outpacing the $65 million that Thor opened to in his first solo saga and $57 million from Ant-Man in summer 2015. The buzz for this one seems stronger.

Ultimately, I think this manages a mid to high 70s opening weekend. Low 80s is reachable. Regardless, this should be a new franchise for the Mouse Factory’s comic book division.

Doctor Strange opening weekend prediction: $77.3 million

For my Trolls prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/26/trolls-box-office-prediction/

For my Hacksaw Ridge prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/26/hacksaw-ridge-box-office-prediction/

 

The Magnificent Seven Box Office Prediction

There are few actors out there who can truly open a movie, but Denzel Washington is one of them. He’s back on screen for the first time in two years with The Magnificent Seven next weekend. A remake of the 1960 classic with Yul Brynner (which itself was a reworking of 1954’s Seven Samurai), this Western re-teams Washington with his Training Day and The Equalizer director Antoine Fuqua. It also features the red-hot Chris Pratt, Training costar Ethan Hawke, Vincent D’Onofrio, Peter Sarsgaard, and Haley Bennett.

Early reviews for Seven have been mixed, but this is likely to be a critic proof exercise that delivers an impressive debut. To give you some perspective on Washington’s star power, his last seven pictures have made over $20 million out of the gate (The Taking of Pelham 123, The Book of Eli, Unstoppable, Safe House, Flight, 2 Guns, The Equalizer). Three (Eli, House, Equalizer) have topped $30M and Safe House managed $40M. With its familiar title and the participation of Pratt (coming off summer 2014’s biggest hit Guardians of the Galaxy and summer 2015’s biggest hit Jurassic World), Seven could also join the plus $40M club. In fact, if this reaches over $43 million (the number that Washington’s 2007 pic American Gangster accomplished), it would mark his largest opening.

I believe it will accomplish that feat for a mid to high 40s debut and that would give it the #2 September premiere of all time.

The Magnificent Seven opening weekend prediction: $47.1 million

For my Storks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/14/storks-box-office-prediction/

Top 25 Highest Grossing Actresses of All Time (20-16)

Continuing on with the Top 25 Highest Grossing Actresses in box office history, today brings us to part two and numbers 20-16.

In case you missed part one, you can find here it here –

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/09/top-25-highest-grossing-actresses-of-all-time-25-21/

Here we go:

20. Meryl Streep

Career Earnings: $2 billion

Franchises: None

Highest Grossing Picture: Mamma Mia! (2008) – $144 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 6 (Mamma Mia!, Into the Woods, The Devil Wears Prada, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, It’s Complicated, Kramer vs. Kramer)

Lowest Grosser: Dark Matter (2008) – $30,000

Overall Rank: 94

19. Amy Adams

Career Earnings: $2 billion

Franchises: Current Superman/Batman films

Highest Grossing Picture: Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) – $329 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 7 (Batman v Superman, Man of Steel, Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian, Catch Me If You Can, American Hustle, Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby, Enchanted)

Lowest Grosser: Standing Still (2006) – $30,000

Overall Rank: 93

18. Natalie Portman

Career Earnings: $2 billion

Franchises: Star Wars episodes I-III, Thor

Highest Grossing Picture: Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (1999) – $474 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: 6 (Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace, Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones, Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith, Black Swan, Thor, Thor: The Dark World)

Lowest Grosser: The Other Woman (2011) – $25,000

Overall Rank: 85

17. Sally Field

Career Earnings: $2 billion

Franchises: Second Spider-Man series

Highest Grossing Picture: Forrest Gump (1994) – $330 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: Forrest Gump, The Amazing Spider-Man, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Mrs. Doubtfire, Lincoln, Smokey and the Bandit

Lowest Grosser: Two Weeks (2006) – $47,000

Overall Rank: 94

16. Zoe Saldana

Career Earnings: $2 billion

Franchises: Star Trek (with Avatar and Guardians of the Galaxy soon to follow)

Highest Grossing Picture: Avatar (2009) – $760 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: 4 (Avatar, Guardians of the Galaxy, Star Trek, Star Trek Into Darkness)

Lowest Grosser: The Skeptic (2009) – $1,000

Overall Rank: 82

I’ll bring you numbers 15-11 tomorrow!

Summer 2015 Movies: The Predicted Century Club

The 2015 Summer Movie Season officially kicks off two weeks from today when Avengers: Age of Ultron blasts into theaters. It will compete for the largest domestic opening of all time (where it needs to beat its predecessor) and is highly likely to be the season’s highest earner. That got me to thinking – while Ultron is poised to gross $500 million or higher, it’s been the $100 million mark that studios still like to brag about. This prompted me to look at the past five summer flick seasons and how many pictures reached that milestone.

In 2010, it was 13 movies that reached the mark: Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, Twilight Saga: Eclipse, Inception, Despicable Me, Shrek Forever After, The Karate Kid, Grown Ups, The Last Airbender, The Other Guys, Salt, Robin Hood, and The Expendables.

Things improved in 2011 with 18 films reaching the century club: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, The Hangover Part II, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Cars 2, Thor, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Captain America: First Avenger, The Help, Bridesmaids, Kung Fu Panda 2, X-Men: First Class, The Smurfs, Super 8, Horrible Bosses, Green Lantern, Bad Teacher, and Cowboys and Aliens.

The low mark was the following year in 2012 with just 12: The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider-Man, Brave, Ted, Madagascar 3, Men in Black 3, Ice Age: Continental Drift, Snow White and the Huntsman, Prometheus, Magic Mike, and The Bourne Legacy.

Yet the high mark came the following summer in 2013 with 19: Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 2, Man of Steel, Monsters University, Fast and Furious 6, Star Trek Into Darkness, World War Z, The Heat, We’re the Millers, The Great Gatsby, The Conjuring, Grown Ups 2, The Wolverine, Now You See Me, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, The Hangover Part III, Epic, Pacific Rim, and This is the End.

2014 dipped with 14: Guardians of the Galaxy, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Maleficent, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Neighbors, Lucy, The Fault in Our Stars, and Edge of Tomorrow. 

That averages out to 15 pictures earning $100M plus per summer over this decade.

So where do I have 2015 matching up? Not breaking records, but in good shape. My predictions for the year’s $100M earners is 16 and they are as follows (in order of release date): Avengers: Age of Ultron, Mad Max: Fury Road, Pitch Perfect 2, Tomorrowland, San Andreas, Spy, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Ted 2, Magic Mike XXL, Terminator: Genisys, Minions, Ant-Man, Trainwreck, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, and Fantastic Four. 

Of course, there’s always sleepers. And there’s others that I could have predicted but think will fall short: the Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy Hot Pursuit, horror remake Poltergeist, the film version of Entourage, the Adam Sandler video game inspired action comedy Pixels, the Vacation reboot, and the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton are among them.

As predicted, summer 2015 should see its number of century club inductees on the slightly high end without reaching the heights of 2013. And as always, you’ll see box office predictions every Saturday from me on each and every one of ’em!