James Gunn’s Superman reboot flies into theaters this weekend with a new franchise on the line for Warner Bros and high expectations. Davin Corenswet plays the title character with Rachel Brosnahan as Lois Lane and Nicholas Hoult portraying Lex Luthor. Other costars include Edi Gathergi, Anthony Carrigan, Nathan Fillion, Isabela Merced, Pruitt Taylor Vince, Neva Howell, Wendell Pierce, and Skyler Gisondo.
It arrives 47 years after the Christopher Reeve saga, which won a special award for its Visual Effects and was also up for its editing and classic score from John Williams. Three sequels failed to generate any nominations. 2006 reboot Superman Returns was up for its visuals, falling short to Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest. The Zack Snyder Supes flicks (Man of Steel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice) did not factor into the Oscar mix.
Will Gunn’s take on the icon generate awards chatter? The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 84% with 71 on Metacritic. Critics are all over the place on which cast members shine brightest (though there’s general agreement that Corenswet is strong). That said, above-the-line nods are a major long shot. Gunn is no stranger to the VE competition as all three of his MCU Guardians of the Galaxy features were nominated. This is where Superman has the strongest chance at a nod with Sound and Makeup & Hairstyling less probable. I don’t think inclusion in VE is automatic though don’t be surprised if it populates one of the five slots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After bringing lesser known superheroes to box office dominance over a decade ago, James Gunn helms a reboot with perhaps the most iconic one via Superman starting July 11th. Warner Bros hopes the latest reboot of the Man of Steel saga flies high with David Corenswet donning the tights, Rachel Brosnahan playing Lois Lane, and Nicholas Hoult handling villainous duties as Lex Luthor. The supporting cast includes Edi Gathergi, Anthony Carrigan, Nathan Fillion, Isabela Merced, Pruitt Taylor Vince, Neva Howell, Skyler Gisondo, and Wendell Pierce.
With a reported budget of $225 million, hopes are high for the summer tentpole. Gunn’s contribution as director is in addition to his duties as head of DC Studios. He was given the role after successfully handling three Guardians of the Galaxy features for the MCU. Counting Supergirl, this marks the 10th overall feature in the Supes series that began in 1978.
The best opening of the bunch is 2016’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice which kicked off with $166 million. #2 on the board is 2013’s last proper restart Man of Steel, which made $116 million in its inaugural weekend. Opening above Justice would be a massive victory for WB while debuting below Steel would be a disappointment.
I’m guessing the opening will be somewhere in between, but closer to Steel than Justice.
Superman opening weekend prediction: $128.6 million
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fifth and final entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Zoe Saldaña in Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez. If you missed my posts covering the other nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Zoe Saldaña:
After a career mostly known for appearances in the Star Trek, Avatar, and Guardians of the Galaxy franchises, Saldaña’s work as a singing defense attorney to the title character has earned across the board precursor victories. That includes the Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA.
The Case Against Zoe Saldaña:
If the controversy regarding costar Karla Sofia Gascón’s past social media postings translate to all Pérez categories, Saldaña could be in trouble.
The Verdict:
Saldaña appears immune to the Gascón firestorm and the sweep appears assured. Anyone other than her winning on Sunday evening would constitute a major upset.
My Case Of posts will continue with the final hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice…
Lionsgate is looking for heavy multiplex play for The Killer’s Game when it opens September 13th. The action comedy from director J.J. Perry stars Dave Bautista as an assassin fending off competitors. Sofia Boutella, Terry Crews, Bautista’s Guardians of the Galaxy costar Pom Klementieff, Scott Adkins, Marko Zaror, and Ben Kingsley costar.
It’s been a rough go for Lionsgate recently. In August, the studio had two of the summer’s biggest busts with Borderlands and The Crow. I don’t see Game reversing their fortunes in early autumn. Out on approximately 2500 screens, mid single digits seems likely.
The Killer’s Game opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
We are 37 films deep into the Marvel Cinematic Universe with The Fantastic Four: First Steps as the latest entry. This is my space to give you my personal listing of the MCU sagas that began in 2008 with Iron Man.
This list will be updated as new comic book based adventures come our way.
37. The Marvels (2023)
36. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023)
35. Thor: Love and Thunder (2022)
34. Captain America: Brave New World (2025)
33. Eternals (2022)
32. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022)
31. Iron Man 2 (2010)
30. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022)
29. Thor: The Dark World (2013)
28. Ant-Man (2015)
27. Thor (2011)
26. Captain Marvel (2019)
25. The Incredible Hulk (2008)
24. Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018)
23. Black Widow (2021)
22. Captain America: First Avenger (2011)
21. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
20. Spider-Man: Far from Home (2019)
19. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021)
In what has become a tradition on the blog, it is time to revisit the cinematic season that transpired ten years ago. In 2014, that meant the warmer months were ruled by a ragtag group of relatively unknown Marvel superheroes (at least compared to your Spideys, Batmen, and Supermen, etc…).
Audiences might have been hooked on the feelings these MCU characters gave them, but they were also transfixed by apes, giant lizards, and pizza chomping turtles.
Let’s take a trip down a decade old memory lane with the top 10 domestic earners of summer ’14 as well as other noteworthy pics and significant flops.
10. How to Train Your Dragon 2
Domestic Gross: $177 million
While the DreamWorks Animation sequel couldn’t match or exceed the gross of its 2010 predecessor at $217 million, the fantasy tale won the Golden Globe for its genre and was Oscar nominated for Animated Feature. A sequel would follow five years later.
9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Domestic Gross: $191 million
With Michael Bay producing and Megan Fox starring, the transformation of this franchise from the 1990s to the 21st century was a financial if not critical success. A sequel which made less cash came two summers later.
8. 22 Jump Street
Domestic Gross: $191 million
Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill’s second go-round as hapless cops (this time graduating to going undercover at college instead of high school) outpaced the 2012 original financially. A third Street never arrived (there was a rumored crossover with the Men in Black series), but Tatum has recently spoken of his desire to get the ball rolling.
7. Godzilla
Domestic Gross: $200 million
It might be the 30th overall feature in the Godzilla franchise, but this monster mash from Gareth Edwards achieved some of the series’ best reviews and kicked off the MonsterVerse that is still wreaking havoc at multiplexes. It also assisted in washing away dirty memories of Roland Emmerich’s 1998 summertime treatment with Matthew Broderick
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Domestic Gross: $202 million
While it made over $200 million domestic, Andrew Garfield’s return to the Spidey suit was seen as underwhelming with critics and audiences. Planned sequels didn’t materialize though Garfield and head villain Jamie Foxx would reprise their roles in 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home.
5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Domestic Gross: $208 million
The follow-up to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Matt Reeves took over directorial duties. The result was critical acclaim as Dawn became the long running franchise’s largest grosser. Two sequels (including Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in May) have followed.
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past
Domestic Gross: $233 million
This sequel combined cast members from the 2000-06 trilogy including Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine, Ian McKellen’s Magneto, Patrick Stewart’s Professor X, and Halle Berry’s Storm with some of their younger counterparts from 2011’s X-Men: First Class like Michael Fassbender’s Magneto and James McAvoy’s Professor X (as well as Jennifer Lawrence’s Mystique). The result is the highest earning pic with X-Men in the title. With the exception of the Deadpool success that followed two years later, direct sequels Apocalypse and Dark Phoenix failed to replicate the success here.
3. Maleficent
Domestic Gross: $241 million
After the massively profitable live-action remake of their animated Alice in Wonderland four years earlier, Disney continued the trend with Maleficent. Angelina Jolie starred as the Sleeping Beauty villainess and a 2019 sequel earned less than half of the total of this domestically.
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Domestic Gross: $245 million
Shia LaBeouf exited Michael Bay’s robotic mayhem and Mark Wahlberg entered this fourth entry. A billion in receipts worldwide resulted in making this 2014’s best worldwide grosser. Sequels are still coming and the latest Transformers: Rise of the Beasts hit a lower $157 million last year.
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Domestic Gross: $233 million
This was the 10th feature in the MCU and it seemed like the first that could be a financial question mark. The heroes weren’t as familiar to audiences, but James Gunn’s tale of eccentric comic characters took by the box office by storm. Two sequels have followed in addition to Guardians appearances in other MCU sagas.
And now let’s cover some other flicks from ’14 that had crowds and critics chatting.
Neighbors
Domestic Gross: $150 million
The comedic teaming of Seth Rogen and Zac Efron caused this fraternal experience to be the season’s most fruitful original comedy. A less regarded sequel came two years later.
Lucy
Domestic Gross: $126 million
Two summers after The Avengers set records, Scarlett Johansson had a solid sci-fi action grosser with Luc Besson’s concoction.
The Fault in Our Stars
Domestic Gross: $124 million
John Green’s phenomenon of a YA romance bestseller became a blockbuster with decent reviews highlighting the chemistry of leads Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort.
Edge of Tomorrow
Domestic Gross: $100 million
Doug Liman’s sci-fi actioner with elements of Groundhog Day was not a sizable hit upon release. However, the Tom Cruise and Emily Blunt led title’s reputation has grown since with occasional rumors of another Tomorrow.
Let’s Be Cops
Domestic Gross: $82 million
This buddy cop pic was an out of nowhere late season surprise with over $100 million globally against a meager $17 million budget. Unlike nearly all other movies I’ve spoken of above, a sequel (somehow) did not happen.
Chef
Domestic Gross: $31 million
After helming two ginormous Iron Man chapters and a disappointment with Cowboys and Aliens, Jon Favreau cooked up critical cred and impressive midsize numbers with this road dramedy.
Boyhood
Domestic Gross: $25 million
Shot over a span of a decade, Richard Linklater’s unique coming-of-age drama remains the best reviewed picture of the 21st century according to Metacritic. Six Oscar nods, including a Supporting Actress victory for Patricia Arquette, were among its many plaudits.
Snowpiercer
Domestic Gross: $4 million
Bong Joon-Ho, who would make the BP winning Parasite five years later, garnered acclaim for this post-apocalyptic pic that would eventually spawn a TV series.
OK, so not all 2014 summer sagas were prosperous and here’s some that were considered commercial and/or critical disappointments.
Hercules
Domestic Gross: $72 million
Brett Ratner’s version of the Greek god wreaking havoc on his enemies cast Dwayne Johnson in the lead. The grosses were actually fairly decent, but I’m sure the studio were hoping for nine figures stateside… and does anyone even mention this movie anymore?
Jersey Boys
Domestic Gross: $47 million
The original play earned Tonys but audiences mostly tuned out Clint Eastwood’s take on the decades spanning musical drama.
Blended
Domestic Gross: $46 million
The Wedding Singer and 50 First Dates were each lucrative rom coms with Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore. The third time was not the charm with moviegoers or reviewers.
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Domestic Gross: $43 million
Family Guy creator Seth MacFarlane ruled the comedic box office in summer 2012 with Ted. This follow-up starring him and Charlize Theron didn’t hit the bullseye.
The Expendables 3
Predicted Gross: $39 million
The previous two action headliners with Stallone, Schwarzenegger, Statham, and Snipes and others did well. For inexplicable reasons, a PG-13 rating was slapped on this third one and audiences turned their nose up for what they wanted to be R-rated violence. A fourth (and also unsuccessful) pic came out last year.
Sex Tape
Predicted Gross: $38 million
Jason Segel and Cameron Diaz couldn’t cause people to cue up this raunchy comedy which played to mostly empty establishments.
Sin City: A Dame to Kill For
Domestic Gross: $13 million
The first Sin City in 2005 made nearly $30 million in its first weekend while this sequel grossed less than half that figure total. The comic book adaptation co-directed by Robert Rodriguez and Frank Miller might stand as the biggest flop of the season.
And that’s your recap, folks! Hope you enjoyed this walk down memory lane and I’ll have a post about summer 2015 up in the summer of 2025!
Blogger’s Update (11/08): I am lowering my The Marvels prediction from $62.3 million to $46.3 million and that gives it the lowest MCU premiere ever.
After a series of delays dating back to summer 2022, the MCU’s 33rd adventure arrives November 10th with The Marvels. Nia DaCosta, best known for her 2021 Candyman remake, directs. Captain Marvel Brie Larson leads a cast that includes Teyonah Parris, Iman Vellani, Zawe Ashton, Park Seo-joon, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Beginning with Spider-Man: No Way Home, we’ve seen a run of six MCU pics that opened to $100 million or over. It certainly helped that each one of them was a sequel in a well-established sub franchise including Guardians of the Galaxy, Thor, and Black Panther.
The nine digit premiere streak should end here and the debut may look more like a trilogy of titles from 2021. Black Widow started with $80 million in the summer of that year and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings did $75 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of its Labor Day weekend bow. Finally, Eternals managed $71 million in November.
Two years later, I’m not confident The Marvels even matches those grosses. Other than Captain Marvel and Jackson’s Nick Fury, the other characters are relatively unknown compared to various Avengers counterparts. There’s always the risk of superhero overload and we’ve seen our share of letdowns in the genre in 2023 (The Flash, Blue Beetle, Shazam! Fury of the Gods). Yes, those were all DCU, but the subpar earnings could apply here.
I’m projecting The Marvels will have the lowest MCU beginning since Ant-Man ($57 million) back in 2015. That would be a rather significant letdown for Marvel in their third feature from Phase Five and the third smallest opening overall of the 33 picture series.
The Marvels opening weekend prediction: $46.3 million
For my Journey to Bethlehem prediction, click here:
The Creator, out Friday, marks the first feature from Gareth Edwards since Rogue One: A Star Wars Story from 2016. The sci-fi thriller with John David Washington is said to be a visual feast. Reviews themselves are mostly on the plus side with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score.
When Dune: Part Two was pushed back to 2024, the easy frontrunner for Visual Effects went with it. Now the VE competition is far more open with hopefuls like Oppenheimer and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (hoping to be the MCU’s first winner) in the mix.
It’s a strong possibility that The Creator is too. If so, it would mark the filmmaker’s second nod in a row for VE (Rogue lost to The Jungle Book seven years back). That’s likely to be the only race where this contends. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 marches to the beat of the writer-director James Gunn’s carefully curated playlist of the mawkish blended with the macabre. The actual needle drops are plentiful from Radiohead to Florence and the Machine and Earth, Wind & Fire and Spacehog (there’s actually CG swine in space in case you were wondering). Storyline A inflicts enough grotesque violence on cute furry creatures that I anticipated Sarah McLachlan piping up with a syrupy ballad, but it isn’t to be.
Team captain Star-Lord (Chris Pratt) is far from over the death of Gamora (Zoe Saldaña) in Avengers: Infinity War as we begin. Since it’s the MCU, she didn’t perish in the traditional way. The character was back as a different version of herself and with amnesia of her primary franchise’s activities in Avengers: Endgame. Now the leader of the thieving Ravagers, Gamora reunites with the old gang when Rocket (voiced by Bradley Cooper) is attacked and left critically wounded. As a reminder, the team also consists of Gamora’s half sister Nebula (Karen Gillan), charmingly dense warrior Drax (Dave Bautista), empath Mantis (Pom Klementieff), and Bob Ross favorite Groot with Vin Diesel grumbling his limited dialogue.
The highly intelligent raccoon Rocket is given the full flashback origin treatment in the third volume. His demented creator is Orgocorp CEO High Evolutionary (a scenery devouring Chukwudi Iwuji) who specializes in developing hybrid creatures and discarding them if they don’t meet his standards. Spoiler: the vast majority do not. Rocket is one of his most prized subjects from his dozens of batches at Orgocorp. It is only at the corporate headquarters that his life can be saved so the Guardians set course.
Along the way there’s stops at other galaxies including the bizarro Counter-Earth with its populace of human/animal hybrids. That extended sequence is an example of Gunn at his best with the grimly comedic gumbo. It works well on that planet and in plenty of other moments. Rocket’s backstory does manage to pull the heartstrings fairly successfully.
All other subplots are given the short shrift. Drax and Mantis have a few humorous bits though they’re truly secondary characters this time (as is Groot). Even the presence of Gamora, while giving the gifted Saldaña basically a fresh character to play, takes a backseat to Rocket’s launch in the plot. I’ll note that it’s taken this long to mention Adam Warlock (Will Poulter). He was teased at the end of volume 2 as a nemesis to the title heroes. Adam is responsible for Rocket’s wounds and then the script doesn’t really know what the heck to do with him. He could’ve been written out the script entirely and it would’ve made zero difference. Pratt’s work as Peter Quill/Star-Lord is still a treat. It’s an MCU casting decision that ranks almost as high as Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark/Iron Man. He manages not to be overshadowed by his omnivorous costar.
Of the various sub-franchises in the Marvel Cinematic Universe containing three entries or more, Guardians is surprisingly the first where quality flows in order of release. That’s not to say the quality is missing. It’s that the mix has more lowlights than the previous two and definitely runs longer than necessary. Gunn still manages to make the sentimental and sometimes sadistic concoction worthwhile and it’s a cut above most MCU material post Endgame.
In recent years, the summer movie season officially kicks off when the MCU releases a tentpole adventure. That’s the case in 2023 with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 arriving to end the month long reign of The Super Mario Bros. Movie. We also have rom dramedy Love Again hoping to attract a female audience. My detailed prediction posts on the newbies can be found here:
Tracking suggests that the third Guardians will fall short of the $146 million opening achieved by its 2017 predecessor, but top the $94 million that the original made way back in 2014. Anything significantly under #2’s start will be considered a letdown and I am projecting a gross $20 million shy of its mark. If that occurs, it would be the second less than anticipated haul for a Marvel pic after Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.
With a billion bucks in the worldwide bank and after four weeks in first, The Super Mario Bros. Movie should at last relinquish the crown. A low 4os dip should put it in the low to mid 20s.
Evil Dead Rise and Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (after a disappointing premiere) should each fall a spot while John Wick: Chapter 4 may remain in fifth position.
That’s assuming Love Again struggles to find its desired audience and I am forecasting that’ll be the scenario. I have it in sixth and it might be lucky to get that much love.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Predicted Gross: $125.3 million
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
3. Evil Dead Rise
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
4. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
6. Love Again
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (April 28-30)
The Super Mario Bros. Movie was #1 for the month of April as it spent a fourth weekend atop the charts with $40.8 million. That’s on pace with my $39.4 million estimate as the Nintendo juggernaut is up to $490 million domestically while crossing a billion worldwide.
Evil Dead Rise, especially for a horror sequel, had a commendable hold in second with $12.1 million, rising beyond my $8.8 million projection. The ten-day haul is an impressive $44 million.
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, the cinematic rendering of Judy Blume’s acclaimed novel, was searching for an audience and came up short. In third place, it made a weak $6.7 million. This is well under my $15.3 million take as it struggled despite mostly rave reviews.
Return of the Jedi celebrated its 40th birthday with a return to approximately 500 screens and added $5.1 million to its coffers for fourth place. I didn’t have it on my radar screen to reach the top five.
John Wick: Chapter 4 was fifth with $4.8 million (I said $4.1 million) to bring its earnings to $176 million after six weeks.
Two other newcomers didn’t make much of a dent. Finnish action pic Sisu was in 10th place with $3.3 million. That’s actually not too shabby given its low 1006 theater count.
Boxing biopic Big George Foreman was knocked out with $2.9 million in 11th place. I thought it would perform better and went with $5.7 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast where I talk all things box office by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite platform! Until next time…
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