Blogger’s Note (08/02/18): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my estimate down a tad from $34 million to $29.6 million
Disney’s ChristopherRobin hopes to make a pot of money when it’s released next weekend. The mix of live-action and CG brings back Winnie the Pooh, Tigger, Eeyore, Piglet, and other notable creatures that originated from the 1926 novel. Ewan McGregor plays an adult Christopher with Hayley Atwell as his wife. Jim Cummings, Brad Garrett, Toby Jones, Nick Mohammed, Peter Capaldi, and Sophie Okonedo provide voiceover work. Marc Forster directs. I’m guessing this is more in tone with his 2003 pic FindingNeverland and not QuantumofSolace and WorldWarZ.
This is not to be confused with last year’s GoodbyeChristopherRobin with Domhnall Gleeson and Margot Robbie. That biopic about Pooh’s author went nowhere at the box office.
That shouldn’t be the case here. The Mouse Factory is certainly astute at marketing their product and the familiarity with Winnie and friends won’t hurt. It may even succeed at tapping into adult moviegoers hungry for a nostalgic fix. Depending on how high Mission: Impossible – Fallout flies this coming weekend, a low to possibly mid 30s gross from Robin could put it in contention for the top spot. That seems reasonable for where this begins.
ChristopherRobin opening weekend prediction: $29.6 million
It’s Thursday and that means a fresh round of my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Some thoughts from the past week:
I can’t help but wonder if the disappointing box office performance of Blade Runner 2049 will hurt its chances at nominations for Picture and Director. It certainly doesn’t help. I had the film and director Denis Villeneuve getting in last week. Today that changes, but we’ll see if it manages to rise back up in subsequent weeks.
Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel is slated to premiere at the New York Film Festival tonight and that means reviews will be up. I have it getting nominations in Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay right now, but lots of questions will be answered in a matter of hours.
Sean Baker’s The Florida Project seems to be garnering a lot of goodwill and for the first time, I have it taking a major jump into an actual nomination. We’ll see if that sticks.
Finally, it appears Steven Spielberg’s The Post will qualify for Original Screenplay and not Adapted as previously thought. That change has been reflected here.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
9. The Florida Project (PR: 19)
Other Possibilities:
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
11. Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
12. Detroit (PR: 13)
13. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 11)
14. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)
15. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
16. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
17. I, Tonya (PR: 17)
18. Downsizing (PR: 18)
19. Get Out (PR: 16)
20. All the Money in the World (PR: 21)
21. Wonderstruck (PR: 24)
22. Lady Bird (PR: 20)
23. The Big Sick (PR: 22)
24. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Goodbye Christopher Robin
Molly’s Game
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)
8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
12. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 14)
13. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
14. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
15. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
7. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 7)
9. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 9)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)
12. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 13)
13. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 12)
14. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)
11. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 13)
12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 11)
13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)
14. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
7. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
8. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)
9. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 11)
10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
11. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 13)
12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)
14. Colin Farrell, The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying
Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 4)
3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 8)
8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 10)
11. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 11)
12. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)
13. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)
15. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin
Cicely Tyson, Last Flag Flying
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)
2. Mudbound (PR: 3)
3. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Beguiled (PR: 10)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
9. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 12)
10. All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)
12. Stronger (PR: 13)
13. The Death of Stalin (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)
15. Wonder (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The Post (moved to Original Screenplay)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Adapted Screenplay)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Florida Project (PR: 11)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 5)
8. Get Out (PR: 6)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Dunkirk (PR: 7)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
12. Downsizing (PR: 12)
13. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)
14. Wind River (PR: 14)
15. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Greatest Showman
And there you have it! I’ll be back at it next Thursday with fresh predictions…
Back at it once again with my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories as we move to October. Over the past week, I would say there’s been two significant developments. First, Richard Linklater’s Last Flag Flying debuted at the New York Film Festival to somewhat mixed results. I’ve had it in my predicted nine films to be nominated for Best Picture and that changes for now.
The other story is the critical reaction for Blade Runner 2049, which opens tomorrow. Many of the reviews have been raves and I believe it’s increased it chances greatly at nods for Picture and its director Denis Villeneuve, who was nominated just last year for Arrival.
One further story line is the falling prospects of Battle of the Sexes, which is not performing up to expectations at the box office. Much of the reasoning for it receiving nominations was that it could turn into a hit audience pleaser. That hasn’t occurred and its chances are in doubt. GoodbyeChristopherRobin has reviews out as well and its prospects are looking dim.
Per usual, just because I rank something at #1 doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is based on chances for a nomination. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 13)
9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
11. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)
12. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
13. Detroit (PR: 18)
14. The Greatest Showman (PR: 12)
15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)
16. Get Out (PR: 16)
17. I, Tonya (PR: 22)
18. Downsizing (PR: 19)
19. The Florida Project (PR: 23)
20. Lady Bird (PR: 21)
21. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)
22. The Big Sick (PR: 20)
23. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)
24. Wonderstruck (PR: 25)
25. Molly’s Game (PR: 24)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 11)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)
14. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)
15. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 12)
Last week, Goodbye Christopher Robin debuted in the United Kingdom ahead of its limited stateside roll out on October 13th. The pic tells the true-life tale of author A.A. Milne (Domhnall Gleeson) and his inspiration to create the Winnie the Pooh character. Margot Robbie portrays his wife.
Director Simon Curtis made My Week with Marilyn in 2011 and it landed acting nods for both Michelle Williams and Kenneth Branagh. He also made 2015’s well-regarded Woman in Gold. The film has been looked at a potential Oscar contender and there’s certainly similarities story wise with 2003’s Finding Neverland, which scored seven nominations.
However, critical reaction has been mixed with few reviews being overwhelmingly positive. Robin is perched at 65% on Rotten Tomatoes. A Best Picture nomination seems highly unlikely at this juncture and I would say the same for both Gleeson and Robbie’s chances. The good news for Robbie? It’s very feasible she’ll receive lead Actress recognition this year as notorious figure skater Tonya Harding in I, Tonya.
Back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions on the eight major categories and how those races are shaping up! In the next week, two big pieces of the Academy puzzle will come into focus. Last Flag Flying will screen this evening at the New York Film Festival and Blade Runner 2049 will have its reviews out as it opens a week from tomorrow (early word-of-mouth is strong). I’m also, for the first time, including Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris, which hasn’t been confirmed for release by the end of the year (though it’s expected to be).
As for this week, we’ve seen some significant changes in the rankings at the top for both Actress and Supporting Actress. Again, I’ll note that just because I’m ranking something first doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is strictly guesstimates on chances of being nominated.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Mudbound (PR: 5)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
9. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)
11. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)
12. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)
13. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)
14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)
15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
16. Get Out (PR: 24)
17. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)
18. Detroit (PR: 16)
19. Downsizing (PR: 13)
20. The Big Sick (PR: 21)
21. Lady Bird (PR: 25)
22. I, Tonya (PR: 20)
23. The Florida Project (PR: 19)
24. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Wonderstruck (PR: 22)
Dropped Out:
Coco
mother!
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
9. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
11. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)
12. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)
13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)
15. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
7. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)
9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)
10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)
12. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 13)
15. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (reportedly competing in Supporting Actor)
Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)
7. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 10)
9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 9)
11. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 11)
12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)
13. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)
15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, Mudbound
Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
5. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)
7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 8)
8. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
11. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
12. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 12)
13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 11)
14. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 15)
15. Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Best Supporting Actress
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)
3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 6)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)
7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 11)
8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)
11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
12. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 14)
15. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, Suburbicon
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (moved to Lead Actress)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post (PR: 1)
2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
10. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)
12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)
13. Stronger (PR: 9)
14. Wonder (PR: 13)
15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Logan
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
8. Dunkirk (PR: 8)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
11. Downsizing (PR: 9)
12. The Florida Project (PR: 11)
13. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)
15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Coco
And there you have it! Updates will be on the way next Thursday…
My weekly Thursday Oscar predictions are coming to you on a Friday this week (sorry for the delay) as the festival season shed some light on potential nominees. That said, there’s still lots of uncertainty with plenty left to be seen.
Per usual, I’m listing my predicted nominees in the eight major categories with 25 potentials for Best Picture and 15 in the others. Once again, note that just because I rank something first doesn’t mean I think it will win. These rankings are more geared toward what I think will definitely be nominated at this juncture. For instance, even though Dunkirk is placed 1st, I wouldn’t say it’s the front runner to take home Best Picture at all.
Let’s get to it and I’ll get the weekly post back to Thursdays next week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Mudbound (PR: 5)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 17)
8. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
9. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
11. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
12. Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)
13. Downsizing (PR: 11)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 16)
15. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 12)
16. Detroit (PR: 14)
17. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Coco (PR: 19)
19. The Florida Project (PR: 23)
20. I, Tonya (PR: 24)
21. The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Wonderstruck (PR: 18)
23. mother! (PR: 15)
24. Get Out (PR: 20)
25. Lady Bird (PR: 21)
Dropped Out:
Wind River
Wonder Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
9. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
11. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
12. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
13. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
15. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Alexander Payne, Downsizing
Darren Aronofsky, mother!
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)
8. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 9)
9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 11)
11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 12)
12. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)
13. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
14. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (PR: 15)
15. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (picture reportedly moved to 2018)
We’ve arrived at my second round of weekly Oscar predictions that will come your way every Thursday on the blog! Since last week, a number of titles have screened at the Toronto Film Festival, in addition to the Venice and Telluride fests that preceded it.
As I did last week, I will list my current predicted nominees in the eight biggest races with a total of 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 in the others. Beginning today, you’ll be able to see the fluctuation in rankings from last week to the current one and see what and who has joined and dropped out. Once again, rankings reflect who and what I think will be nominated and not necessarily win.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
5. Mudbound (PR: 4)
6. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)
11. Downsizing (PR: 8)
12. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 16)
13. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)
14. Detroit (PR: 14)
15. mother! (PR: 13)
16. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
17. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 18)
18. Wonderstruck (PR: 17)
19. Coco (PR: 19)
20. Get Out (PR: 20)
21. Lady Bird (PR: 22)
22. Wind River (PR: 21)
23. The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
24. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Wonder Woman (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
Molly’s Game
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
10. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
12. Alexander Payne, Downsizing (PR: 9)
13. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
14. Darren Aronofsky, mother! (PR: 13)
15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 5)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 15)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 7)
10. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 12)
12. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
13. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 10)
15. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
7. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 7)
11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 8)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)
13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)
14. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night (PR: 15)
15. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Isabelle Huppert, Happy End
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)
7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)
8. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)
11. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)
13. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 14)
14. Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Harrison Ford, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)
2. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 2)
3. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)
8. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: 7)
9. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 11)
10. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon (PR: 13)
11. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 14)
12. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
14. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)
7. Stronger (PR: 12)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. You Were Never Really Here (PR: 7)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)
12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)
13. Wonder (PR: 13)
14. My Cousin Rachel (PR: 14)
15. Logan (PR: 15)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
5. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
8. Dunkirk (PR: 9)
9. Downsizing (PR: 5)
10. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)
11. Lady Bird (PR: 11)
12. The Big Sick (PR: 10)
13. mother! (PR: 13)
14. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
15. The Florida Project (PR: 12)
And there you have it, folks! Expect more Oscar Watch posts to come your way and my next full predictions next Thursday…
Blogger’s Note Update (09/11/17): Neon has picked up the distribution rights for I, Tonya. Expect it to be released by year’s end for an Oscar push.
One picture skated into the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend with relatively small expectations. Yet Craig Gillespie’s I, Tonya has turned into a major critical and audience favorite. Whispers of Oscar possibilities are getting considerably louder.
The title character is Tonya Harding, the infamous Olympic figure skater accused of masterminding an attack on rival Nancy Kerrigan in 1994. Margot Robbie is Harding and her performance is drawing many raves. Allison Janney portrays Tonya’s mom and she’s getting equal, if not more, attention.
Robbie has yet to be nominated for an Oscar in her short but fruitful career thus far. Prognosticators are also keeping an eye on her supporting turn in this fall’s GoodbyeChristopherRobin. The packed nature of Best Actress has been discussed several times over the last few days on this blog. Even with fierce competition, early notices seem to indicate that Robbie could be a factor.
The Supporting Actress race looks less crowded as of now. Janney, a seven-time Emmy winner, would also be a newcomer for Academy attention. Her inclusion in that category is looking like a major possibility.
One potential hiccup: I,Tonya doesn’t have a distributor at press time and it’s not 100% certain it’s released before the end of the year. However, based on the sizzling buzz emanating from our neighbor to the north, look for that to happen rapidly.
As you may have noticed on the blog over the last few days, there’s been an influx of Oscar Watch posts up due to the Telluride and Venice Film Festivals shedding light on some contenders.
Today begins my weekly column covering the big six races (Picture, Director, the four acting categories, and both screenplay categories). It will be updated every Thursday up until nominations are announced next year (with a final predictions posts the Monday before they are revealed).
Here’s how it works: I’m listing my current predictions in each race, with 25 selections for Best Picture and 15 in the others. When we get a bit further down the road, the predictions will go to 15 Best Picture possibilities and 10 in the rest. I am indeed ranking them, but note that just because I rank something as #1, that doesn’t mean I think it will win. It just means I believe at this time that it has the current best shot at actually getting nominated. Beginning next week, you’ll see how the rankings change and alter from week to week… and change and alter they most certainly will.
So here goes with my first weekly Oscar predictions!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. The Post
3. Darkest Hour
4. Mudbound
5. Call Me by Your Name
6. Battle of the Sexes
7. The Shape of Water
8. Downsizing
9. The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
10. Last Flag Flying
11. Phantom Thread
12. Wonder Wheel
13. mother!
14. Detroit
15. Blade Runner 2049
16. Goodbye Christopher Robin
17. Wonderstruck
18. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
19. Coco
20. Get Out
21. Wind River
22. Lady Bird
23. Wonder Woman
24. Molly’s Game
25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post
3. Dee Rees, Mudbound
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes
8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049
9. Alexander Payne, Downsizing
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying
13. Darren Aronofsky, mother!
14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman
15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
4. Tom Hanks, The Post
5. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
7. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
9. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
10. Matt Damon, Downsizing
11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe
12. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker
13. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House
14. Jeremy Renner, Wind River
15. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel Esq.
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
2. Meryl Streep, The Post
3. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel
5. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other Possibilities:
6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
7. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
8. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
11. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound
12. Diane Kruger, In the Fade
13. Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
14. Isabelle Huppert, Happy End
15. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
4. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water
8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
11. Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
12. Patrick Stewart, Logan
13. Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle
14. Will Poulter, Detroit
15. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate
2. Hong Chau, Downsizing
3. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
8. Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman
9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
10. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck
11. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
12. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
13. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon
14. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
15. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post
2. Mudbound
3. Call Me by Your Name
4. Last Flag Flying
5. Molly’s Game
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck
7. You Were Never Really Here
8. Victoria and Abdul
9. The Beguiled
10. The Disaster Artist
11. Blade Runner 2049
12. Stronger
13. Wonder
14. My Cousin Rachel
15. Logan
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour
2. Battle of the Sexes
3. The Shape of Water
4. Wonder Wheel
5. Downsizing
Other Possibilities:
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
7. Get Out
8. Phantom Thread
9. Dunkirk
10. The Big Sick
11. Lady Bird
12. The Florida Project
13. mother!
14. The Greatest Showman
15. Goodbye Christopher Robin
And there you have it! My first ranked predictions for the Oscar race. Next Thursday, I’ll have the updated projections…
And here we are! After my first round of predictions covering the acting categories and Best Director, we arrive at Best Picture. The Telluride and Venice Film Festivals have shed light on some potentials heavyweights (Darkest Hour, Battle of the Sexes, The Shape of Water, MAYBE Downsizing) while others (Suburbicon, Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool) have mostly fallen by the wayside. Obviously there’s many pictures left to screen, but here’s my first blush round of Best Picture nominees.
As you may know, the number of nominated movies can be anywhere from 5-10, but nine has seemed to be the magic number in most years so we’ll go with that. On Thursday, I’ll post my first weekly column where potential nominees in Picture, Director, all four acting races, and both screenplay categories are ranked as to possibility of nomination in this blogger’s mind.
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