As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Actor and that’s Timothée Chalamet in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown. If you missed my post on Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), it’s linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
Best Actor (2017, Call Me by Your Name) – lost to Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
The Case for Timothée Chalamet:
He’s essentially Hollywood’s IT leading man of the moment coming off Wonka, Dune: Part Two, and this biopic where he embodies Bob Dylan. Plenty of critics have hailed it as career best work and he’s landed precursor nods everywhere that matter (Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, SAG). Chalamet would make Oscar history as the youngest victor in this competition.
The Case Against Timothée Chalamet:
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) has already taken the Globe and Critics Choice as he seeks his second gold statue. Side note – he’s the current record holder for youngest Best Actor recipient for The Pianist (2002). Voters might figure Chalamet will have other opportunities as his career progresses.
The Verdict:
Chalamet is rightly seen as the runner-up. If he can snag SAG next weekend, this becomes a race. If it goes to Brody, the sweep is likely on.
My Case Of posts will continue with our next Supporting Actress contender and that’s Ariana Grande in Wicked…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Actress and that’s Karla Sofia Gascón for Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez. If you missed my post on Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), it’s linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Karla Sofia Gascón:
The Spanish actress has been nominated in the key quartet of precursors with the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Playing the title character in the most nominated picture, a Gascón victory would be history making as she’s the first transgender performer nominated in the category.
The Case Against Karla Sofia Gascón:
Well… it’s voluminous but let’s start with the non-obvious. There’s been no precursor wins of note and she lost to Demi Moore (The Substance) at the Globes and Critics Choice. While she may play the titular role, her costar Zoe Saldaña has been the focus of attention in Supporting Actress. Then there’s the headline making controversy. Last month, a number of Gascón’s social media posts from a few years back resurfaced containing troubling comments. The firestorm was enough for Netflix to essentially drop any campaign for her in Best Actress and refocus all attention on its other nominations.
The Verdict:
Gascón wasn’t a real threat to win before the scandal and is even less so now.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second contender in Best Actor and that’s Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown…
Captain America: Brave New World isn’t the sole fourth franchise entry seeking viewers over the holiday weekend. Renée Zellweger returns as the title character in Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy. It premieres on Peacock stateside tomorrow and has international theatrical distribution on Friday. Michael Morris directs with Hugh Grant, Colin Firth, and Emma Thompson reprising their roles from earlier installments. Newcomers to the series are Chiwetel Ejiofor, Leo Woodall, and Isla Fisher.
Reviews are providing mostly solid marks with 86% on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic at 71. Back in 2001, Bridget Jones’s Diary earned Zellweger Academy Award and Golden Globes nods in lead Actress (she respectively lost to Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball and Nicole Kidman from Moulin Rouge!). 2004 sequel Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason saw Zellweger get another nomination at the Globes for Actress in a Musical or Comedy where she fell short to Annette Bening (Being Julia). 2016’s Bridget Jones’s Baby received no significant awards play.
I wouldn’t rule out Zellweger (a two-time Oscar winner for 2003’s Cold Mountain and 2019’s Judy) getting some attention from Globes voters, but that will depend on competition. An Academy nom seems out of reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The 78th edition of the BAFTAs, the U.K.’s version of the Academy Awards, occur this Sunday and it could help shape an already topsy-turvy awards season.
I’m going to give you a winner and runner-up prediction for each feature film race. I won’t spend much time pontificating as I do enough of that for the Oscars. However, it is worth noting BAFTA’s Best Film and the Academy’s Best Picture have matched just twice in the past 10 ceremonies (2020’s Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). With victories at Critics Choice/PGA/DGA last weekend, Anora has anointed itself the Oscar frontrunner. And you could argue that it makes it easier not to select Sean Baker’s pic for BAFTA’s biggest prize.
That’s what I’m doing as I believe Conclave and The Brutalist could battle for BAFTA and I’m giving the slight edge to the former. We’re talking coin flip territory. Don’t get me wrong. Anora could take this and solidify its status even more so. I just have a hunch otherwise.
BAFTA/Oscar matches improve in other major races. For Director and Supporting Actress, it’s 7 out of the past 10. For Actor and Supporting Actor, it is 8 and we have 9/10 in Actress. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice have elevated Demi Moore, Adrien Brody, Zoe Saldaña, and Kieran Culkin to favorited status. The smart money is on that quartet and I’m not projecting an upset.
Here’s my rundown and I’ll have recap up Sunday!
BEST FILM
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Predicted Winner: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Edward Berger, Conclave
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance
Predicted Winner: Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper
Predicted Winner: No Other Land
Runner-Up: Daughters
BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: I’m Still Here
BEST CASTING
Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST EDITING
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST MAKE UP & HAIR
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
Predicted Winner: The Substance
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST SOUND
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Better Man
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
Outstanding British Film
Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Kneecap
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
EE Rising Star Award
Marisa Abela, Jharrel Jerome, David Jonsson, Mikey Madison, Nabhaan Rizwan
Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison
Runner-Up: Marisa Abela
And that leaves us with these pictures generating these numbers of victories:
5 Wins
Conclave
4 Wins
The Brutalist
2 Wins
Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked
1 Win
Anora (two if you count Madison’s Rising Star victory), Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kneecap, No Other Land, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Director and that’s Sean Baker for Anora.
Previous Oscar Directing Nominations:
None
The Case for Sean Baker:
After winning Best Picture at PGA and Critics Choice last weekend, Anora became the frontrunner for the same prize at the Oscars. For Mr. Baker, his chances went way up after taking the Directors Guild of America (DGA) award on Saturday. For context, 21 of the 24 DGA victors in the 21st century have taken done the same from the Academy. He scored noms at BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes.
The Case Against Sean Baker:
He lost that Golden Globe to Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) and Jon M. Chu (Wicked) was the unexpected recipient at Critics Choice. While Chu isn’t nominated for the Oscar, voters could opt for Corbet’s more epic in nature project and honor Baker in Original Screenplay. Since he is the editor of Anora, he could also win that gold statue so that’s another at bat.
The Verdict:
For quite some time, it looked like Baker would be a first-time Academy honoree in Screenplay and perhaps Screenplay only. Now he’s in contention for four in one night with Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing. His chances for the filmmaking competition skyrocketed after DGA.
My Case Of posts will continue with our second hopeful in Best Actress and that’s Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov in Sean Baker’s Anora.
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Yura Borisov:
As sympathetic henchman Igor to Mikey Madison’s title character, the Russian actor has run the table with nominations in significant precursors including the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and SAG. After a weekend in which his picture won top prizes at Critics Choice and PGA and Baker’s direction took DGA, Anora has become the Academy’s frontrunner and perhaps those coattails could sweep him in.
The Case Against Yura Borisov:
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is the Globe and Critics Choice recipient and could sweep through the season. If he doesn’t, Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) and Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) are in BP nominees as well and both possess veteran careers that could lead to an overdue feeling.
The Verdict:
A victory isn’t much of a real possibility unless he surprises at BAFTA or SAG.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Best Director and that’s Sean Baker for (you guessed it) Anora…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Monica Barbaro in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown.
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Monica Barbaro:
As Bob Dylan’s on and off again flame Joan Baez, Barbaro has a breakout role as the legendary folk singer. The SAG awards put her in their mix and the picture itself scored an impressive eight nominations overall.
The Case Against Monica Barbaro:
Folks making up the voting branches at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes did not nominate her. Zoe Saldaña from Emilia Pérez has dominated the precursors.
The Verdict:
Of Unknown‘s three acting nominees – Timothée Chalamet in Actor, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, and here – I would rank Barbaro third in terms of winning possibility.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov from Anora…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Actor and that’s Adrien Brody for Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist.
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
Actor (The Pianist) – WON
The Case for Adrien Brody:
Adrien Brody’s lead acting victory for Roman Polanski’s The Pianist was a surprise 22 years ago when he beat heavy hitters like Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt) and Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York). With wins already at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, this time he’s the frontrunner. He hasn’t missed anywhere with two at bats forthcoming at the BAFTAs and SAG.
The Case Against Adrien Brody:
He already has a gold statue and the Academy might want to honor Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown (who would replace Brody as the youngest Best Actor winner ever). The Brutalist‘s fortunes in Best Picture and Director could be fading with Anora on the upswing and that could hinder this everywhere.
The Verdict:
Brody is the favorite. If Chalamet can pick up BAFTA (less likely) or SAG (likelier), this becomes more of a race.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first contender in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Actress and that’s Cynthia Erivo for Jon M. Chu’s Wicked.
Previous Acting Nominations:
Actress (Harriet, 2019) – lost to Renée Zellweger in Judy
The Case for Cynthia Erivo:
As the eventual Wicked Witch of the West, Erivo could achieve rare EGOT status (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony victories) if she wins her second acting Oscar nom behind 2019’s Harriet. She has run the table with noms at precursors including BAFTA, the Golden Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice. Of the five pics in contention, it is certainly the most popular with audiences at over $700 million worldwide.
The Case Against Cynthia Erivo:
She fell short to Demi Moore (The Substance) at the Globes and Critics Choice. It is thought that her costar Ariana Grande has a better shot to take gold in the supporting field.
The Verdict:
Several days ago, Erivo might’ve been considered fifth out of the five actresses in terms of winning chances. That last place designation now certainly belongs to Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), but that still means Erivo is fourth.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Adrien Brody in The Brutalist…
The 30th Critics’ Choice Awards aired this evening and this body had some tricks up their sleeve with some seriously surprising selections. Leading up to Best Picture, you would’ve been right to count out Sean Baker’s Anora. It had emerged victorious nowhere, even in the races where it was supposed to like Original Screenplay. I listed it as my runner-up to The Brutalist. Fun fact: this is your first CCA BP to not receive any other wins.
Let’s not start writing those Anora will take the Oscar BP columns. While it is certainly a possibility, just half of the previous 10 CCA BP recipients repeated with the Academy. If it manages to grab PGA tomorrow, it could rightfully become the soft frontrunner.
I went 13 for 21 overall in my picks. While Anora‘s sole win in BP was unexpected, the biggest shocker was easily in Director. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) was widely anticipated to sweep through the season and then CCA went and named Jon M. Chu for Wicked. He’s not even nominated for the Oscar. When’s the last time the Critics’ pick wasn’t up for the Academy’s trophy? That would be Ben Affleck for Argo and before that, you must go back to 2002 when they gave it to Steven Spielberg for his double feature of Minority Report and Catch Me If You Can.
My against the odds selection was Mikey Madison (Anora) over Demi Moore in The Substance. I should’ve gone bigger with my Anora upset calls. Moore did get Actress just as with the Globes. In fact, all the acting winners are also Globe takers: Adrien Brody in The Brutalist for its sole prize tonight in Actor and supporting players Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez and Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. The Moore/Brody/Saldaña/Culkin combo could absolutely be the Oscar quartet and they are certainly the favorites.
As for other categories, here’s where I was right:
Conclave in Adapted Screenplay; Emilia Pérez as Foreign Language Film and The Wild Robot in Animated Feature; A Real Pain is Best Comedy though it tied with Deadpool & Wolverine (so I guess I was half right); Wicked in Costume Design and Production Design; The Substance for Hair & Makeup, Challengers for Original Score; “El Mal” from Pérez in Original Song; and Dune: Part Two for Visual Effects.
Where I went wrong:
The Substance scored an out of nowhere win over BP Anora in Original Screenplay. Maisy Stella (My Old Ass) is the Best Young Actor/Actress instead of Izaac Wang in Dídi. Conclave is Best Ensemble over Wicked. In Cinematography, it’s Nosferatu and not The Brutalist. Challengers took the Editing category and not Anora.
What’s it all mean for BP? The Brutalist could’ve solidified frontrunner status tonight and it didn’t. The fact that Anora didn’t win anywhere else? Confusing. And we do have 4 legit acting favorites. Let’s see if PGA and DGA can muddy the waters tomorrow…
Here’s the win total for the various pictures in contention
3 Wins
Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked
2 Wins
Challengers, Conclave, A Real Pain
1 Win
Anora, The Brutalist, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, My Old Ass, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
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