Wow. Well, the Golden Globes were going according to script for the vast majority of its running time… until the last 20 minutes or so. It was a huge night for both BohemianRhapsody and GreenBook, with the former’s final win being quite the shocker.
The Queen biopic won in an upset for Best Film (Drama) over the heavily favored AStarIsBorn. Less surprising was its star Rami Malek’s Best Actor (Drama) victory, though I picked Bradley Cooper.
In the other upset, Glenn Close took Best Actress (Drama) for TheWife over Lady Gaga in Star. While the Cooper/Gaga musical drama predictably won Best Song for “Shallow”, that was the only statue for it. That’s surprising.
All in all, I went 10/14 on my picks. I was chugging right along until the Close, Malek, and Bohemian victories.
The other race I missed was GreenBook taking Screenplay over TheFavourite. The race relations pic also won for Best Film (Musical/Comedy) and Supporting Actor for Mahershala Ali.
As for the other categories I correctly called:
Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Actor (Musical/Comedy): Christian Bale, Vice (it’s only win despite a leading six nods)
Supporting Actress: Regina King, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
Foreign Language Film: Roma
Animated Film: Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Score: FirstMan
So… what does this mean for the Oscars? It could mean a lot. I have felt that AStarIsBorn and Cooper and Gaga were the soft favorites. That could still be true. I’m still a bit skeptical Malek wins the Oscar, but Bale is a different story. Bottom line: Best Actor is a competitive three-way race.
So is Best Actress. Close’s win could mean the Academy’s race will end up closer than anticipated. And Colman is a factor, too.
Ali and King helped solidify their status as supporting front-runners. So did Cuaron in the directing race.
To Best Picture… I believe the unexpected Star loss could ironically boost its Oscar chances for the big prize. Perhaps the Academy voters will feel they wish to go a different way. As for Rhapsody, I had yet to predict it would even get a nomination. You can definitely expect that to change come Thursday in my weekly predictions. I feel the biggest Star competition is Roma rather than GreenBook at the moment.
So that’s my first blush reaction on a night when Bohemian was a champion. And finally – I want to hang out with Carol Burnett. That’s all for now, folks!
The Producers Guild of America (PGA) announced their nominees today for their 10 Best Pictures of 2018 and you better believe it comes with Oscar implications. The PGA Awards are correctly looked at as a major harbinger for the films likely to make the final cut of the Academy. Let’s look at the past five years. In 2013, eight of the nominated PGA pics got Oscar nominations. In 2014, 2015, and 2017 – it was seven. In 2016, that was number was nine. The math is a little tricky considering there’s always 10 PGA nominees and it fluctuates with the Academy (usually with eight or nine being the magic number).
As you can see, it’s very safe to assume seven out of the ten PGA picks will get Oscar love. And here are those ten nominees:
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Right off the bat, we have six flicks that appear to be sure things for the Academy. They are BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, and A Star Is Born. I would make the case that, at this point, Vice is the 7th. It got the most nods from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association for the Golden Globes and its inclusion here is important.
So there’s your seven. Yet the PGA announcements today cause me to consider the 8th. That’s Bohemian Rhapsody. In my weekly Oscar prediction posts, I haven’t included it in my projected Academy movies for Best Picture. I suspect that will change next Thursday. It managed a nod at the Globes for Best Drama. Despite mixed reviews, it’s a box office sensation and audiences dig it. I think it’s in and look for that change to be reflected next week.
Now to the omissions. The PGA selections left out If Beale Street Could Talk and First Man. Those are the two pictures that, as of yesterday, I still had being nominated by the Academy. I still feel Beale‘s road to Best Picture inclusion is fairly solid, though it’s far from a guarantee. I had it listed at #7 yesterday. Expect that to change.
As for First Man, I think it’s time for me to admit that it won’t land recognition from Oscar voters. It has simply failed to gain any significant precursor traction and that trend seems bound to continue. Other pictures could have received a boost from the PGA today and failed. They include Can You Ever Forgive Me?, First Reformed, and Eighth Grade. Also the nods today provide further evidence that Mary Poppins Returns could be in trouble. I took it out of my expected nominees two weeks ago and I don’t see that changing.
So what will be the PGA picks that don’t get Oscar nods? My guess would be Crazy Rich Asians and A Quiet Place, though it could happen. In short, we have more evidence today as to what the Academy will pick. And it’s a good day for Freddie Mercury and company.
The highest profile Oscar precursor airs this Sunday with Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh sharing hosting duties. That means it’s time to roll out my predictions on who and what will win in the film categories. Truth be told, some of these races are fairly easy to pick. Others… not so much. Let’s break each category down with my final picks on the victors.
Best Drama
The Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born
It was an interesting decision for Warner Bros. to place Star here instead of in Musical/Comedy. Even with that, I believe anything else winning would be an upset (BlacKkKlansman may have the best remote shot). Star is looked at as a soft front-runner at the big show down the line. I feel a win here will help solidify that.
Predicted Winner: A Star Is Born
Best Musical/Comedy
The Nominees: Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns, Vice
Unlike Drama, this race is considerably tougher to project. Vice received the most nominations of any picture and that could mean something. However, critical reaction has been more mixed than originally anticipated. Mary Poppins Returns now seems to be a legitimate question mark as to Oscar inclusion for Picture and the competition is steep. The reward for Crazy Rich Asians is its nomination.
So, for me, this comes down to Green Book and The Favourite and it’s seriously a coin flip. I am giving a tiny edge to Green Book since it received a directing nomination, unlike The Favourite.
Predicted Winner: Green Book
Best Director
The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Peter Farrelly (Green Book), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice)
A win for Cooper or Lee is not out of the question, but Cuaron is the odds on favorite (as he is for the Academy). Roma was not eligible for inclusion in Drama since it’s a foreign pic. It will (spoiler alert for below!) be honored there and here.
Predicted Winner: Cuaron
Best Actor (Drama)
The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
The Best Actor drama race comes down to two performers who used their musical skills to dramatic effect: Cooper and Malek. I would not at all be surprised to see Malek’s Freddie Mercury pick up the trophy, but I’ll say the Star love extends here.
Predicted Winner: Cooper
Best Actress (Drama)
The Nominees: Glenn Close (The Wife), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Rosamund Pike (A Private War)
Not long ago, the Globes bestowed Lady Gaga with an unexpected win for her TV work in “American Horror Story”. If they did that, I’ll say they honor her here for her breakthrough film role. Close is the only actress that provides potential competition.
Predicted Winner: Gaga
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun), John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)
If the Hollywood Foreign Press goes crazy for Green Book, Mortensen could be a benefactor. Yet I suspect this is the most obvious category to give Vice a win for Bale’s acclaimed performance.
This is Blunt v. Colman. With Poppins not quite getting all the box office/critics love that was expected, I lean Colman.
Predicted Winner: Colman
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)
The HFPA has had shockers in this race… Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals being a recent example. This is a tricky one. Other than Rockwell, I could see any name being called. I’m tempted to pick Grant, but I’ll go with Ali for a more safe choice (especially since it was Taylor-Johnson that unexpectedly beat him in 2016 for his Oscar-winning part in Moonlight).
Predicted Winner: Ali
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Claire Foy (First Man), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
These are the five women I currently have down for Oscar nods. I suspect The Favourite ladies will cancel themselves out. Foy would be an upset. Could the several Vice nods mean Adams is a factor? It certainly could, but I believe King’s performance in Beale (not withstanding her SAG snub) will emerge.
Predicted Winner: King
Best Screenplay
The Nominees: The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, Vice
Unlike the Oscar, the Globes do not divide this race between adapted and original screenplays. A Roma or Book win is feasible, but I’ll say The Favourite is the choice in this case.
Predicted Winner: The Favourite
Best Foreign Language Film
The Nominees: Capernaum, Girl, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters
As already discussed, this is going to be Roma. Not much left to say.
Predicted Winner: Roma
Best Animated Feature Film
The Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
It’s generally not wise to bet against Pixar and Incredibles 2 stands an excellent shot. I’m thinking the Globes may go against the grain though as Spidey is peaking at the right time with its very recent raves.
Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Original Score
The Nominees: Black Panther, First Man, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place
Once again, I’m tempted to go with Disney and their iconic nanny as this is the only musical on here. However, I’ll say Justin Hurwitz’s acclaimed score for First Man lands the win.
Predicted Winner: First Man
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “All the Stars” from Black Panther, “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin, “Requiem for a Private War” from A Private War, “Revelation” from Boy Erased, “Shallow” from A Star Is Born
It was unexpected that Poppins made no showing here (part of the reason I’m picking against it in Score). Regardless, there is an extremely obvious front-runner here and it’s Cooper and Gaga’s duet.
Predicted Winner: “Shallow” from A Star Is Born
My projections give Star a bright evening with four victories, with The Favourite, Green Book, and Roma all picking up two. I’ll have analysis up shortly after the ceremony as to how I did. Stay tuned!
We’ve had Golden Globe nominations this morning and AFI’s top ten list on Tuesday, but my top 10 Best Picture picks for Oscar glory have stayed remarkably the same. In case you missed my recap of those major precursors, you can find them here:
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
10. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
10. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 9)
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
10. Rosamund Pike, A Private War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
7. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 7)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Vice
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 10)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)
10. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: !)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Widows (PR: 6)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
9. Leave No Trace (PR: 10)
10. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Boy Erased
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 4)
4. Vice (PR: 6)
5. First Reformed (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)
7. Private Life (PR: 8)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
10. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mule
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Capernaum (PR: 4)
5. Girl (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning (PR: 5)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 6)
8. Border (PR: 7)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)
10. I Am Not a Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Guilty
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 3)
3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Smallfoot (PR: 6)
7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)
8. Early Man (PR: 7)
9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 8)
10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tito and the Birds
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. Free Solo (PR: 3)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
7. Dark Money (PR: 8)
8. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)
9. Science Fair (PR: 10)
10. Quincy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amazing Grace
Best Film Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. Black Panther (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 8)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)
8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)
9. Green Book (PR: 7)
10. Widows (PR: 6)
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
3. First Man (PR: 2)
4. The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Cold War (PR: 7)
8. Widows (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
10. Vice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Roma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Colette
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Colette (PR: 5)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 6)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 1)
2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
3. Vice (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 6)
5. The Favourite (PR: 5)
6. Colette (PR: 7)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
9. Deadpool 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Black Panther (PR: 2)
5. Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Sound Mixing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. A Quiet Place (PR: 5)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
7. Roma (PR: 7)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 8)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Incredibles 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Original Score
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isle of Dogs (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Colette (PR: 7)
8. Widows (PR: 6)
9. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Roma
Best Original Song
1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 4)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’ (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 9)
7. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 5)
8. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)
9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 6)
10. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Gravity” from Free Solo
And that correlates to the following movies getting this number of nominations:
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born
10 Nominations
The Favourite, First Man
9 Nominations
Black Panther
8 Nominations
Mary Poppins Returns, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Vice
4 Nominations
Green Book
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, First Reformed, RBG
1 Nomination
Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum, Girl, Incredibles 2, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Crazy Rich Asians, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Dumplin’
The most known precursor to the Oscars unveiled their nominations today. Per usual, there were surprises as some films hopes potentially dim for the big prize with others rising.
As far as my predictions, I went 51/70 overall while going 5/5 in four of the fourteen races. Today I will also make my first predictions for winners with final picks coming a couple of days before the ceremony in January.
Let’s break them all down with a little analysis, shall we?
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born
A bit surprisingly, Bohemian Rhapsody managed to score a nod over my prediction of First Man. I would say that at this juncture, Man is truly a question mark as to whether it garners an Oscar slot for Picture, while its inclusion in tech races still seems assured. Additionally, I think Black Panther helped its cause today to be the first comic book flick to get a Best Picture nomination from the Academy.
Predicted Winner: A Star Is Born
Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns, Vice
No surprises here! Picking a winner is far more tough as I believe The Favourite, Green Book, and Vice all have legitimate shots. Both Peter Farrelly (Green Book) and Adam McKay (Vice) received Directing nods while Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) did not. That could give those two pictures a slight edge and I’ll put it as a coin toss at the moment.
Predicted Winner: Green Book
Best Director
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice), Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
The aforementioned McKay and Farrelly were the ones I didn’t predict. I instead had Lanthimos and Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk). This would seem to be between Cuaron and Cooper and I’ll give the former a tiny edge.
Predicted Winner: Cuaron
Best Actor (Drama)
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Hedges and Washington (a rather genuine surprise) got in over Ryan Gosling (First Man) and Ethan Hawke (First Reformed). Mr. Hawke had been on a roll with critics precursors and this is the first interruption of that. Gosling’s snub continues the troubling trend for First Man. With Christian Bale and Viggo Mortensen in the Musical/Comedy race, this appears to be a clear victory for Cooper.
Predicted Winner: Cooper
Best Actress (Drama)
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Glenn Close (The Wife), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Rosamund Pike (A Private War)
Both Kidman and Pike helped their cases for Oscar attention here while my predicted nominees of Viola Davis (Widows) and Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) did not. This category appears to be Close vs. Gaga (as it may also be for the Academy). This prediction could and likely will fluctuate.
Predicted Winner: Close
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun), John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)
No big surprise with Reilly getting in over Nick Robinson (Love, Simon), which was a bit of a wild card pick. Bale and Mortensen are the two winner possibilities and I’m going with the former right now.
I’m giving Colman the win, but this could easily be changed to Blunt at some point.
Predicted Winner: Colman
Best Supporting Actor
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)
No Sam Elliot for A Star Is Born was unexpected, with Rockwell continuing the Vice love. Ali should be considered a soft front-runner, but a win for Driver or Grant seems feasible. I’m going for an upset pick, but could revert back to Ali.
Predicted Winner: Grant
Best Supporting Actress
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Claire Foy (First Man), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Adams is probably going to win… for Sharp Objects in the television race for which she’s also nominated. Stone and Weisz could cancel one another out and Foy represents the lone high-profile nod for First Man. That leaves Ms. King and she seems to be a front-runner.
Predicted Winner: King
Best Screenplay
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, Vice
The exclusion of A Star Is Born surprised me with Green Book honored instead. This is a tough one, but I’ll say this ends up being the sole win for The Favourite. Roma and Vice are certainly possible.
Predicted Winner: The Favourite
Best Foreign Language Film
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Capernaum, Girl, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters
Capernaum in, Cold War out. Roma will win. Enough said.
Predicted Winner: Roma
Best Animated Feature Film
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Interent, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
This could certainly be the Academy five. The Hollywood Foreign Press loves their Pixar. Dogs and Spider-Man could threaten, but the safe pick is Incredibles 2.
Predicted Winner: Incredibles 2
Best Original Score
Todd’s Performance: 2/5
The Nominees: A Quiet Place, Isle of Dogs, Black Panther, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns
Ouch. Didn’t fare well here as I only predicted First Man and Poppins. A shocking omission was Beale Street, which some see as the Academy favorite in this race. Considering its lackluster reception for Man, it could dangerous to pick it over Poppins, but here goes.
Predicted Winner: First Man
Best Original Song
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: “All the Stars” (Black Panther), “Girl in the Movies” (Dumplin’), “Requiem for a Private War” (A Private War), “Revelation” (Boy Erased), “The Shallow” (A Star Is Born)
I had two Poppins tracks in and not “Revelation” or “Requiem”. This is going Gaga.
Predicted Winner: “The Shallow” (A Star Is Born).
And there you have it folks! I’ll have updated Oscar predictions up later today…
The Golden Globes, perhaps the biggest precursor of all to the Oscars, unveils their nominees this Thursday as awards prognosticators like me attempt to read tea leaves. As a reminder, the Globes do it a bit differently than the Academy. For Picture and lead acting races, nominees are divided into Drama and Musical/Comedy. Unlike the Oscars, Screenplay is just one category with five pictures, whether they’re original or adapted works.
It should be strong showings for A Star Is Born and The Favourite in particular. Another difference between Globes and Oscar is that foreign features are only honored in their particular category. That’s significant this year as Roma will only be called for Foreign Language Film.
One item to pay attention to – Clint Eastwood’s The Mule. Despite coming out a week from Friday, it has yet to have reviews come out (perhaps this will change by Thursday). If it makes a showing in any of the dramatic races, that could bode well for Oscar attention.
Here are my predictions for the nominees in each category, along with an alternate and a wild card pick. I’ll have my weekly Oscar predictions updated on Thursday and we’ll see if the Globes alter those picks in any way.
Let’s get to it!
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
A Star Is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Alternate – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Wild Card – The Mule
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
Alternate – Eighth Grade
Wild Card – Private Life
Best Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Alternate – Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Wild Card – Damien Chazelle, First Man
Best Actor (Drama)
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate – Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Wild Card – Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Best Actress (Drama)
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Viola Davis, Widows
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate – Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Wild Card – Toni Collette, Hereditary
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun
Nick Robinson, Love, Simon
Alternate – John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie
Wild Card – Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 2
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Alternate – Regina Hall, Support the Girls
Wild Card – Kathryn Hahn, Private Life
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate – Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
Wild Card – Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Wild Card – Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Best Animated Feature Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alternate – Smallfoot
Wild Card – The Grinch
Best Foreign Language Film
Cold War
Girl
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
Alternate – Capernaum
Wild Card – I Am Not a Witch
Best Screenplay
A Star Is Born
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
Vice
Alternate – Green Book
Wild Card – First Reformed
Best Original Score
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Alternate – Widows
Wild Card – Suspiria
Best Original Song
“All the Stars” from Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns
“The Shallow” from A Star Is Born
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns
Alternate – “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born
Wild Card – “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet
And that equates to the following number of nominations for each picture:
6 Nominations
The Favourite
5 Nominations
A Star Is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns
4 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, First Man, Roma, Vice
3 Nominations
Green Book
2 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Crazy Rich Asians
1 Nomination
Black Panther, At Eternity’s Gate, First Reformed, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Widows, The Old Man & The Gun, Love, Simon, Eighth Grade, Tully, Beautiful Boy, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Cold War, Never Look Away, Shoplifters, Mary Queen of Scots
I’ll have reaction up on Thursday with updated Oscar picks later that day!
Disney’s Christmas box office smash is expected to be MaryPoppinsReturns, the sequel to the 1964 classic original. It comes from Rob Marshall, who directed 2002’s Best Picture winner Chicago. Even with the Oscar pedigree behind it, it was a legitimate question as to whether this would garner any awards chatter or just settle for raking in tons of dough.
The film has screened for the Screen Actors Guild and journalists. While official reviews are under embargo, the buzz indicates it’s in many ways a worthy follow-up to what came over a half century prior. This especially applies to Emily Blunt, taking over the iconic title role from Julie Andrews (who won the Oscar as Poppins). Best Actress is crowded this year. At this juncture, I’d say Lady Gaga (AStarIsBorn), Glenn Close (TheWife), and Olivia Colman (TheFavourite) are locks or darn close to it. That leaves two spots and plenty of contenders to fill them. The showings for Poppins indicate Blunt is a prime contender to get one. As a side note, she could be in excellent shape for Actress at the Golden Globes for Musical/Comedy.
As for other performers, it’s certainly possible Blunt gets all the attention. Lin-Manuel Miranda seems a longshot in Supporting Actor. In Supporting Actress, it’s another category that is already filling up. Yet if anyone could sneak in, it’s Meryl Streep (who would be going for an unprecedented 22nd nod). Marshall has already directed her to one of them before in Supporting Actress for 2014’s IntotheWoods.
Before its unveiling, the pic was already thought to be a contender in numerous down the line races: Costume Design, Production Design, Score, Original Song, Visual Effects and both Sound categories. That still holds true.
When it comes to Best Picture, that’s much more of a question mark. I’d say chances have undoubtedly improved, but it could depend on how others rise and fall in the coming weeks.
Bottom line: with Blunt leading the charge, MaryPoppinsReturns could have awards voters singing its praises. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Today begins a new blog series where I’m looking back at five of the major Oscar categories from 1990 to the present: the four acting races and Best Picture. This is essentially the time period where I’ve closely watched and analyzed. My charge? Picking the three largest upsets in each said category and the three least surprising winners… a film or performer where it truly would have been a shock if they didn’t emerge victorious.
We begin with Best Supporting Actress and this is one in which there have been some genuine upsets over the past quarter century plus. Unlike some other races we’ll get to later, it was not a challenge to pick three unexpected winners.
The other agenda item here is I’m picking my personal selections for strongest and weakest overall field among the five nominees in the acting derby’s and five-ten for Best Picture.
For starters, here’s the list of women that won gold statues in the supporting race from 1990 to now:
1990 – Whoopi Goldberg, Ghost
1991 – Mercedes Ruehl, TheFisherKing
1992 – Marisa Tomei, MyCousinVinny
1993 – Anna Paquin, ThePiano
1994 – Dianne Wiest, BulletsOverBroadway
1995 – Mira Sorvino, MightyAphrodite
1996 – Juliette Binoche, TheEnglishPatient
1997 – Kim Basinger, L.A. Confidential
1998 – Judi Dench, ShakespeareinLove
1999 – Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted
2000 – Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock
2001 – Jennifer Connelly, ABeautifulMind
2002 – Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
2003 – Renee Zellweger, ColdMountain
2004 – Cate Blanchett, TheAviator
2005 – Rachel Weisz, TheConstantGardner
2006 – Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
2007 – Tilda Swinton, MichaelClayton
2008 – Penelope Cruz, VickyChristinaBarcelona
2009 – Mo’Nique, Precious
2010 – Melissa Leo, TheFighter
2011 – Octavia Spencer, TheHelp
2012 – Anne Hathaway, LesMiserables
2013 – Lupita Nyong’o, 12YearsaSlave
2014 – Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2015 – Alicia Vikander, TheDanishGirl
2016 – Viola Davis, Fences
2017 – Allison Janney, I, Tonya
I’ll begin with the least surprising winners. Truthfully, there are plenty of selections (and will be in each race) to pick from here. It’s normal procedure for the front runner to actually win. Here’s three that did just that:
3. Dianne Wiest, BulletsOverBroadway
Of the 28 recipients to choose from, note that 3 of them were under the direction of Woody Allen. None were surprise winners. That’s most evident with Wiest’s showcase work as an aging diva here. Her win here came just eight years following her Oscar winning role in another Allen pic, HannahandHerSisters.
2. Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Fans of the Broadway play this is based upon knew Ms. Hudson could have a legitimate breakthrough part here. She nailed it and her win was never in much doubt.
1. Anne Hathaway, LesMiserables
Similar to Hudson’s victory, Hathaway’s casting as Fantine and her “I Dreamed a Dream” dramatic solo made her the odds-on favorite from the moment the project was announced. That never changed.
Now we get to the upsets and there were four to choose from. I could easily include Anna Paquin in ThePiano, who became the second youngest winner when she beat out favorite Winona Ryder for TheAgeofInnocence. Here’s 3 I rank as even more surprising:
3. Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock
Harden had won no significant precursors and Kate Hudson was expected to have her name called for AlmostFamous. She wasn’t even nominated for a Golden Globe or SAG.
2. Juliette Binoche, TheEnglishPatient
While the film itself was the anticipated winner for Picture (which it did), the Oscars were expected to select the legendary Lauren Bacall for her work in Barbra Streisand’s TheMirrorHasTwoFaces. Yet it was Binoche’s performance that was unexpectedly honored.
1. Marisa Tomei, MyCousinVinny
For starters, comedic roles are rarely nominated and wins are even more unheard of. Tomei was a newcomer in a picture that wasn’t a factor in any other category. Her competition was a list of venerable actresses: Judy Davis (HusbandsandWives), Joan Plowright (EnchantedApril), Vanessa Redgrave (HowardsEnd), and Miranda Richardson (Damages). The victory here was so shocking that conspiracy theories emerged that presenter Jack Palance had accidentally read the wrong name. That’s been debunked, but Tomei’s trip to the stage remains one of Oscar’s largest jaw droppers.
As for the fields, I’m going with 1991 for the weakest link in the chain. I probably would have given the award to Juliette Lewis in CapeFear. However, the group was not particularly strong:
Mercedes Ruehl, TheFisherKing (Winner)
Diane Ladd, RamblingRose
Juliette Lewis, CapeFear
Kate Nelligan, ThePrinceofTides
Jessica Tandy, FriedGreenTomatoes
For the strongest field overall, I went with 2004 when Cate Blanchett won for her portrayal of Katherine Hepburn in Martin Scorsese’s TheAviator. The other nominees:
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Sophie Okonedo, HotelRwanda
Natalie Portman, Closer
And there you have it! I’ll have Supporting Actor up soon…
Last night, Deadpool 2 set the Thursday preview record for an R rated feature and the sequel could well be on its way to the best debut ever for a picture with that rating. It might be easy to forget now, but the original Deadpool in 2016 likely came close to receiving some Oscar nods. The pic did receive nominations for both the film itself and Ryan Reynolds for Best Actor in the Musical/Comedy races at the Golden Globes.
Many of the reviews for the sequel claim part two is an improvement on the first (though certainly not all). The original ended up at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and the follow-up currently sits at 85%. So it’s worth at least asking: could Deadpool 2 garner the Academy’s attention in a way that the first barely missed out on? The short answer is… probably not. No comic book adaptation has managed a Best Picture nomination and this won’t change that. On the other hand, Black Panther just might.
Furthermore, while many superhero adaptations like Panther and Avengers: Infinity War could play in the technical races, that doesn’t really hold true here. Bottom line: Deadpool 2 is highly unlikely to change this franchise receiving no love from Oscar voters.
With Oscar nominations set to drop Tuesday, a big precursor is bestowing trophies on Sunday night when the SAG Awards air. Oftentimes, this particular show can be a better indicator of things to come at the Academy Awards than the Golden Globes.
In the 23 years that the SAG ceremony has been held, the winners of the four categories have matched up with Oscar as follows:
Actor: 18/23
Actress: 17/23
Supporting Actor: 14/23
Supporting Actress: 16/23
Of course, since this is an award given out by fellow actors, there is no “Best Picture” category. Instead the night’s top prize is Best Ensemble (which has matched Best Picture just 10 of 23 times). The individual acting races could give further fuel to performers looking for that Oscar and continue to dilute the hopes of others.
Here’s my estimates for the SAG winners on Sunday:
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
Mudbound
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted Winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Predicted Winner: Gary Oldman
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Predicted Winner: Frances McDormand
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted Winner: Willem Dafoe
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Predicted Winner: Allison Janney
And there you have it! You can peruse my FINAL Oscar predictions here:
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