Tag: Golden Globes

Oscar Predictions: The Roses

Critics are not generally not showering The Roses with praise ahead of its release over Labor Day weekend. Remaking Danny DeVito’s 1989 dark comedy (itself based on a 1981 novel), Jay Roach directs Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman as feuding spouses. Costars include Andy Samberg, Kate McKinnon, and Allison Janney.

Plenty of reviews say the leads elevate the material. However, Rotten Tomatoes stands at 64% with Metacritic at 59. That’s certainly in the average range and should put it outside of Oscar consideration. I wouldn’t discount the Golden Globes. That’s where the original Roses scored noms in Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical and in Actor and Actress in the same genre for Michael Douglas and Kathleen Turner. Fun fact: it lost all three to Driving Miss Daisy and its headliners Morgan Freeman and Jessica Tandy.

Depending on the level of competition, Cumberbatch and (especially) Colman could sneak into their Globe competitions. Best Motion Picture might be out of reach. My Oscar (and in this case, Globe) prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Splitsville

Michael Angelo Covino cowrites, directs, and costars in the rom com Splitsville, out this weekend in limited form and widely on September 5th from distributor Neon. It premiered at Cannes back in May. Dakota Johnson headlines along with her filmmaker, Adria Arjona, Kyle Marvin, Nicholas Braun, David Castaneda, O-T Fagbenie, and Charlie Gillespie.

Johnson’s second genre exercise this season (Materialists being the other), Splitsville is drawing mostly positive critical reaction. Rotten Tomatoes is 86% with Metacritic at 75. I do think Golden Globe attention in Best Musical/Comedy is at least a possibility, but the Academy is unlikely to consider it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Freakier Friday

Sometimes my Oscar Predictions write-ups are actually Golden Globe Predictions and that would apply to Freakier Friday. Out Friday, this is the sequel to the 2003’s Freaky Friday which itself was a remake of the 1976 Disney body swap comedy that was actually based on a 1972 book. Got all that? Nisha Ganatra directs with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan back headlining. Costars include Mark Harmon, Julia Butters, Sophia Hammons, Manny Jacinto, Chad Michael Murray, and Rosalind Chao.

No, Freakier Friday won’t contend for the Academy’s attention. However, the Friday features have a history with the Globes. In Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy, both Jodie Foster and Barbara Harris were nominated for the ’76 version (they lost to Barbra Streisand for A Star Is Born). Bonus fun fact: Harris was a double nominee in that category as she was also up for Alfred Hitchcock’s final film Family Plot. In 2003, Jamie Lee Curtis was a hopeful in the same race for the remake and fell short to Diane Keaton for Something’s Gotta Give.

Early reviews for Freakier are pretty decent with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 Metacritic. That’s lower than Curtis/Lohan’s tale from 22 years ago. If competition is light, it’s not impossible that Curtis could find herself in the Globes mix again. Her chances are certainly less than they were in the earlier part of the century. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Freakier Friday Box Office Prediction

Arriving 22 years after the critically acclaimed remake of the 1976 Disney body swap comedy with Jodie Foster is Freakier Friday on August 8th. Nisha Ganatra takes over the directorial reins from Mark Waters with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan returning to headline. Other returnees from 2003 include Mark Harmon, Chad Michael Murray, Rosalind Chao, and Ryan Malgarini plus newbies Julia Butters, Sophia Hammons, and Manny Jacinto joining.

With the source material originating from a 1972 kids novel, Curtis/Lohan’s take received stronger reviews than the original cinematic version. Curtis was even nominated for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes. The box office was equally impressive with a $22 million premiere and $110 million overall domestically. Adjusted for inflation, that debut would be close to $40 million today.

Freakier has a number of pluses going for it. There’s a nostalgia factor, the narrative of a Lohan comeback, and a dearth of female driven material this summer. Then there’s the Mouse House marketing. All of that combined could get this mean low 30s and maybe even higher.

Freakier Friday opening weekend prediction: $32.5 million

For my Weapons prediction, click here:

Weapons Box Office Prediction

For my Sketch prediction, click here:

Sketch Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Naked Gun

Arriving over 30 years after the Leslie Nielsen trilogy of outrageous slapstick comedies, Akiva Schaffer’s The Naked Gun reboot blasts off in theaters Friday. Liam Neeson stars as Frank Drebin’s son with Pamela Anderson as his love interest (which reportedly translated to real life). Costars include Paul Walter Hauser, Kevin Durand, and Danny Huston.

1988’s original (which was based on the short-lived but acclaimed TV show Police Squad!) was the critical darling of the series with the two follow-ups generally judged as inferior. Reviews for 2025’s installment are impressive with critics lauding its joke-a-minute landing percentage. It’s at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes and 78 on Metacritic.

I’m not saying Gun will be an Oscar contender. The Golden Globes? Maybe that’s a possibility. The critical reaction is sturdy enough that a nom in Best Musical/Comedy and Neeson in Actor (Musical/Comedy) doesn’t appear out of the question. My Oscar (and Globe) prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Materialists

Celine Song’s 2023 debut Past Lives was a Best Picture and Original Screenplay nominee and her sophomore feature Materialists arrives in theaters this weekend. A rom com with considerable emotional heft according to reviews, it stars Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans.

The word-of-mouth for the A24 release indicates there’s no sophomore slump for Song with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic. If the Academy considers Materialists their material, Original Screenplay is a possibility. Chris Evans is also getting some of the best notices of his career.

Yet I suspect its distributor could focus more on its fall slate, namely Marty Supreme. If A24 slots this into the Musical/Comedy competitions at the Golden Globes, it could contend in that Best Picture race with Johnson as a Best Actress hopeful. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Materialists Box Office Prediction

A24 rom com Materialists is writer/director Celine Song’s follow-up to 2023 Best Picture nominee Past Lives. Dakota Johnson, Chris Evans, and Pedro Pascal headline the summer counter programming offering that looks to bring in a respectable female crowd.

While official reviews aren’t yet released, early word-of-mouth from screenings indicates this could be a winner. Audience familiarity with its trilogy of leads could assist. Tracking currently has this at high single digits. I think this could slightly outdo that range and reach low double digits.

Materialists opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million

For my How to Train Your Dragon prediction, click here:

How to Train Your Dragon Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Eleanor the Great

At age 95, June Squibb was at the Cannes Film Festival today as her starring vehicle Eleanor the Great debuted. The dramedy marks the directorial debut of Scarlett Johansson with a supporting cast including Chiwetel Ejiofor, Jessica Hecht, Erin Kellyman, and Rita Zohar.

It marks the second year in a row that Squibb is considered a factor in the awards conversation. Last year’s Thelma garnered impressive reviews. They ultimately did not translate into nominations for its star who was up for Supporting Actress for 2013’s Nebraska.

As we await word of stateside distribution, Eleanor had a mixed reaction in France. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 64% though Squibb is being heralded. She’ll need a strong campaign that exceeds Thelma‘s in what looks like a crowded Actress field. Her chances could be stronger at the Globes where the distributor will be faced with a choice of whether to slot her in Drama or Musical/Comedy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Phoenician Scheme

Wes Anderson is back at Cannes with The Phoenician Scheme, his latest comedy sporting a gigantic cast opening stateside June 6th. Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton have the most significant roles with an ensemble also (deep breath) including Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Rupert Friend, Hope Davis, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, and Willem Dafoe.

We are more than a decade removed from The Grand Budapest Hotel which turned out to be Anderson’s most significant awards contender yet (nine Oscar nods with victories in Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design). His two Phoenician predecessors generated minimal attention in their seasons with The French Dispatch up for Score at the Globes and Asteroid City blanked from the Academy and at the Globes.

Phoenician‘s reaction in France indicates this will follow in the footsteps of those recent titles and not Hotel. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 79% with Metacritic at 74. Even with the typical praise for Production Design and Score, I doubt this shows up anywhere at the Oscars and that includes the new Casting category. Depending on competition, del Toro and Threapleton (daughter of Kate Winslet) could be threats for noms in the Musical/Comedy races in their respective acting derbies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Friendship

Tim Robinson’s Netflix sketch series I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson has generated significant critical praise. His pic Friendship is following suit prior to its limited release on Friday and national expansion on Memorial Day weekend. Written and directed by Andrew DeYoung in his directorial debut, this was initially seen at the Toronto Film Festival last September. Robinson and Paul Rudd headline with Kate Mara, Jack Dylan Grazer, Josh Segarra, and Billy Bryk providing support.

Judging from the trailer, this looks like a comedy by way of A24 which picked up distribution following the Canadian premiere. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 93% with Metacritic at 77. Advertised as a more demented version of I Love You, Man, I don’t see this as an awards play. Despite the kudos, that notion likely extends to the Golden Globes in their Musical/Comedy races unless A24 goes all in with a campaign for Robinson. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…