Kristoffer Borgli’s dark comedy Dream Scenario premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its November 10th theatrical release. The A24 effort casts Nicolas Cage as a nerdy professor who inexplicably starts showing up in people’s dreams. Julianne Nicholson, Michael Cera, Tim Meadows, Dylan Gelula, and Dylan Baker costar.
The Dream reviews are mostly on the plus side with an 84% Rotten Tomatoes rating. There’s really only two categories where I see Oscar possibilities. Mr. Cage is being praised for his work. He could be in line for a third Best Actor nod behind 1995’s Leaving Las Vegas (for which he won) and 2002’s Adaptation. He likely came close to his third nod for 2021’s Pig. Yet as I’ve already discussed on this blog, there’s a quintet of contenders who already look strong in the race. That would be Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). It almost seems too easy, right? That’s why I figure at least one of those gentlemen get snubbed. Cage could fill the gap, but there’s other hopefuls in the mix. I think his chances to be named in the Musical/Comedy competition at the Golden Globes is stronger.
Original Screenplay is feasible and perhaps even more so if A24 campaigns hard for it. Nominations in those two derbies are the dream scenario with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Glen Powell got a whole lotta exposure last year with his memorable supporting turn in Top Gun: Maverick. It sounds like he’s got a heckuva starring vehicle via Hit Man, Richard Linklater’s latest that premiered at Venice. The action comedy is cowritten by the director and his star. The buzz out of Italy is strong and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.
Linklater is a three-time screenwriting Oscar nominee for 2004’s Before Sunset and 2013’s Before Midnight (in Adapted) and 2014’s Boyhood (in Original). Hit Man is based on a magazine article. Despite the kudos for Powell’s performance (Best Actor is just too crowded already), it’s Adapted Screenplay where this stands a shot at recognition for the two scribes.
Assuming this is slotted in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, I wouldn’t discount this nabbing a Best Picture and Actor nomination from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Chilean filmmaker Pablo Larrain is no stranger to awards attention. His 2012 effort No was an Academy Award nominee for Best Foreign Language Film (now best International Feature Film) while 2016’s Neruda was up in the same race at the Globes. Also in ’16, his English language debut Jackie scored Natalie Portman an Actress nod at the Oscars. Five years later, Kristen Stewart contended in the same category for Spencer.
At the Venice Film Festival, his latest El Conde (or The Count) has premiered prior to its Netflix debut on September 15th. Set in the director’s native land, it creates an alternate universe where dictator Augusto Pinochet (Jaime Vadell) is a vampire.
Reviews are mostly positive with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score. However, I wouldn’t say they’re strong enough that it receives the kind of attention granted to Larrain’s aforementioned titles. Chile may select it as their pick for International Feature Film. Making the final five seems like a reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After receiving kudos when it screened at South by Southwest in the spring, Emma Seligman’s Bottom raucous teen comedy Bottoms is up in limited release this weekend. It marks the director’s second feature after her acclaimed 2020 debut Shiva Baby, which made its way to a few critical best of lists. Rachel Sennott, who starred in Baby, headlines here. The supporting cast includes Ayo Edebiri, Havana Rose Liu, Kaia Gerber, Nicholas Galitzine, Dagmara Domińczyk, and former NFL star Marshawn Lynch.
As summer 2023 closes out at the box office, this is currently an unlikely winner for best Rotten Tomatoes score of the season at 99%. A number of reviews are calling it an instant classic of its genre.
For awards prospects, a best case scenario could be an Original Screenplay nod or some love in the Musical/Comedy Film competition at the Globes. Like other classics of its genre, a more likely scenario is no attention from voters of those branches as it seeks to achieve cult status. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Earlier this summer, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!
Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there were always five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. It started with 2008 and that post can be accessed here:
We now move to 2007. And we, of course, know five movies that would make the cut. That would be the quintet of pics that got nominated. No Country for Old Men from the Coen Brothers was the night’s big winner with four victories: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Javier Bardem), and Adapted Screenplay. It also nabbed four additional nominations.
Tying Country for the most mentions is Paul Thomas Anderson’s There Will Be Blood with 8 nods and two wins for Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) and Cinematography.
The other three contenders all took home one Oscar. Joe Wright’s Atonement received 7 noms and was victorious for the Original Score. Jason Reitman’s Juno tallied 4 mentions and a win in Original Screenplay. Tony Gilroy’s Michael Clayton achieved 7 nods with Tilda Swinton taking Supporting Actress.
Moving to the five pictures that I believe would’ve joined an expanded cut, Pixar strikes again. For 2008, I picked Wall-E as an addition. For 2007, the acclaimed Ratatouille had five nominations and a win for Animated Feature. I believe that’s enough that we would’ve seen it included.
The same goes for Julian Schnabel’s The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Schnabel was in the mix for Best Director and it was also up in heavy hitter races Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. It could’ve been #6 on the board.
After that, it gets a little tricky. There are a few films that generated a couple of important nods, but didn’t manage to break out elsewhere. Away from Her saw Julie Christie in contention for Actress plus an Adapted Screenplay mention. The Savages saw Laura Linney in Best Actress along with Original Screenplay. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford made two lists for Supporting Actor (Casey Affleck and Cinematography). Yet its reputation has grown in time. Elizabeth: The Golden Age saw Cate Blanchett in Actress and it won Costume Design. 3:10 to Yuma was up for Original Score and Sound Mixing. Ultimately I decided none of these would make the dance.
The hardest film to leave off was The Bourne Ultimatum. The third chapter in Matt Damon’s action franchise went 3 for 3 by taking both Sound races (they’ve since been combined) and Film Editing. However, I just couldn’t pull the trigger on it finding a spot among the ten.
The second toughest to leave off is La Vie en Rose for which Marion Cotillard took home Best Actress (as well as a Makeup victory). It didn’t, on the other hand, score well in precursors.
So what other three pictures get in? Tim Burton’s Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street won Art Direction and was up for Actor (Johnny Depp) and Costume Design. It also nabbed a Critics Choice nod and won the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy (over Juno).
The Globes and Critics Choice also found room for Ridley Scott’s American Gangster. It underperformed at Oscar with two inclusions for Supporting Actress and Art Direction. Yet I suspect it might’ve just made it.
Into the Wild from Sean Penn is my final pick. It was another underwhelming performer with two spots for Supporting Actor (Hal Holbrook) and Film Editing. The Critics Choice inclusion puts it barely over some of the aforementioned hopefuls.
There you have it! That means my expanded ten 2007 lineup consists of:
Earlier this summer, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!
Beginning today… my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there were always five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in beginning in 2008. In fact, it’s because of that year’s biggest grosser not being included that may have prompted the Academy to expand again in the first place. We’ll get there in just a minute.
We do, of course, know five of the ten and that would be the ones that were nominated. Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire dominated the ceremony with ten nods and an impressive eight victories in Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Sound Mixing.
David Fincher’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button received the most overall mentions with 13 and took home 3 (Art Direction, Makeup, Visual Effects).
Our other trio of contenders were Ron Howard’s Frost/Nixon (o for 5 in nominations), Gus Van Sant’s Milk (8 nods with Sean Penn winning Actor as well as an Original Screenplay statue), and Stephen Daldry’s The Reader (5 nominations with Kate Winslet taking Actress).
The 81st Academy Awards were a rare year when the five Picture hopefuls matched the five filmmakers nominated in Best Director. In other words, there are no clues there for additional BP pics for the purposes of this post.
Yet for the ones that could’ve made the dance in an expanded lineup, we do begin with 2008’s largest moneymaker and that’s Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight. It did manage to score 8 mentions with Heath Ledger winning a posthumous Supporting Actor prize (in addition to Sound Editing gold). The fact that it didn’t break into BP was heavily criticized online and elsewhere. If there had been 10 pics up, that almost certainly wouldn’t have been the case.
I would say the same for Pixar’s Wall-E. When it went to 10 movies in 2009 and 2010, the studio’s Up and Toy Story 3 were in. The robotic adventure was the victor in Animated Feature and was nominated in five more races in Original Screenplay, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. Like Knight, Wall-E is an easy pick.
For the 8th spot, I’m fairly confident in Doubt. John Patrick Shanley’s drama (based on his Pulitzer Prize winning play) saw four of its actors nominated and was up for Adapted Screenplay. That combo is enough to assume inclusion.
Then it gets complicated for the 9th and 10th slots and there’s a few possibilities to ponder. Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler saw Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei up, but a screenplay miss makes me skeptical. Clint Eastwood’s Changeling had three noms (including Angelina Jolie in Actress), but drew mixed reviews. Woody Allen’s Vicky Christina Barcelona, despite taking the Golden Globe in Musical/Comedy, was only nominated for Penelope Cruz’s supporting turn (for which she won). Martin McDonagh’s In Bruges and Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky were both up for Original Screenplay and that race alone. There’s usually one or two screenplay nominees that are only up for that category. Iron Man was a gigantic hit which kicked off the MCU. I doubt the Academy would have honored two comic book adaptations. The Duchess won Costume Design and was nominated for its Art Direction. It also was greeted with a mixed critical response.
All of those titles, to one degree or another, are worthy of consideration for the last two spots. I’m going with an indie selection in Courtney Hunt’s Frozen River which was nominated for Actress (Melissa Leo) and Original Screenplay. Let’s call it 2008’s Winter’s Bone (which would make the 2010 BP ten).
Lastly, I’m naming Revolutionary Road from Sam Mendes. Despite it missing noms for stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, it received a Golden Globe nod in Drama and three Academy mentions for Supporting Actor (Michael Shannon), Art Direction, and Costume Design. That might have been just enough for #10.
So there you have it! That means my 2008 Best Picture expanded to ten is:
Between No Hard Feelings and this Friday’s Joy Ride, the raunchy comedy is back in multiplexes for the summer of 2023. The latter centers on four women (Ashley Park, Sherry Cola, Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s Oscar nominee Stephanie Hsu, Sabrina Wu) on an international road trip. Costars include Ronny Chieng, Lori Tann Chinn, David Denman, and Annie Mumolo. Adele Lim makes her directorial debut. She’s best known for cowriting 2018’s Crazy Rich Asians (which the Academy surprisingly completely ignored) and Disney’s 2021 animated pic Raya and the Last Dragon (which nabbed an Animated Feature nomination).
Since its premiere back in March at South by Southwest, buzz for Ride has been glowing. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is parked at 97% as the Lionsgate release hopes to have sleeper potential at the box office. Its awards prospects could be tied to that. If it achieves a high profile, perhaps an Original Screenplay nod is doable. I will note, however, that this genre is not exactly a favorite of the voters.
A more likely scenario is the Golden Globes taking notice in the Musical/Comedy race where Crazy Rich Asians did compete. It could be a reach, but the reviews are there for it to occur. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
There are times when these Oscar Predictions posts quickly morph into Golden Globe Predictions entries. Such is the case for No Hard Feelings. The raunchy comedy hits theaters this Friday with Jennifer Lawrence starring. Good Boys director Gene Stupnitsky is behind the camera and the supporting cast includes Andrew Barth Feldman, Laura Benanti, Natalie Morales, and Matthew Broderick.
The hard R-rated flick is generating mixed notices with a 61% Rotten Tomatoes score. The Sony Release isn’t meant to be an awards player. However, even the bulk of negative reviews have kind words for Lawrence. In her first theatrical headlining role since 2018’s Red Sparrow, J-Law has been with a fixture at the Globes. She’s a five-time nominee and three of them were for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy. Two were victories for 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook and 2015’s Joy. She also made the cut for 2021’s Don’t Look Up.
A sixth GG nod is not out of the question, but it will depend on how stacked the race is. That remains to be seen. My Oscar (Globe) Prediction posts will continue…
Wes Anderson is no stranger to Cannes or Oscar nominations as Focus Features hopes the debut of Asteroid City at the former leads to the latter. A mix of comedy, drama, romance, and sci-fi, it features the auteur’s typical sprawling cast (many of whom have worked with him on multiple occasions). This includes (deep breath) Jason Schwartzman, Scarlett Johansson, Tom Hanks, Jeffrey Wright, Tilda Swinton, Bryan Cranston, Edward Norton, Adrien Brody, Liev Schreiber, Hope Davis, Stephen Park, Rupert Friend, Maya Hawke, Steve Carell, Matt Dillon, Hong Chau, Willem Dafoe, Margot Robbie, Tony Revolori, and Jeff Goldblum. Exhale.
Out stateside on June 23rd, City premiered in the south of France just like Anderson’s Moonrise Kingdom and The French Dispatch. Four of his last five works have generated the Academy’s attention. 2009’s Fantastic Mr. Fox was up for Animated Feature and Original Score (from frequent collaborator Alexandre Desplat). 2012’s Kingdom was in the Original Screenplay derby (with Anderson’s cowriter Roman Coppola). Two years later, The Grand Budapest Hotel was the massive awards breakthrough with nine Oscar nods and four victories in Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design. It is Anderson’s sole BP nominee. 2018’s Isle of Dogs nabbed Animated Feature and Score mentions. In 2021, I had The French Dispatch predicted for Score and Production Design. It was surprisingly blanked on the morning of nominations.
Critics indicate this is an Anderson effort through and through and most reviews are of the thumbs up variety. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 84%. Like Dispatch and pics before it, Score (by Desplat of course) and Production Design are possibilities. So is the screenplay from Anderson and Coppola. Yet the overseas reaction is not to the level of Hotel and City could come up short like Dispatch did. A Best Picture nod probably won’t occur though perhaps the Golden Globes could slot it in Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy).
Finally, despite the sheer volume of familiar faces appearing in his filmography, no actors have received recognition in one of Anderson’s pics from the Academy. Bill Murray in Rushmore and Gene Hackman in The Royal Tenenbaums likely came close. I do not anticipate that streak being broken here. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Disney’s The Little Mermaid surfaces in theaters over this Memorial weekend and it hopes to dominate the box office like the Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King live-action versions did. Rob Marshall, Oscar-winning director of Chicago who recently helmed Mary Poppins Returns, is behind the camera. Halle Bailey stars as Ariel with Melissa McCarthy, Jonah Hauer-King, Daveed Diggs, Awkwafina, Jacob Tremblay, Noma Dumezweni, and Javier Bardem among the supporting players.
The musical fantasy is, of course, a remake of 1989’s classic that won Oscars for Score and Original Song (“Under the Sea”). Another tune (“Kiss the Girl”) was also in contention. 34 years ago, Best Animated Feature didn’t exist at the Academy Awards. If it had, Mermaid almost certainly would’ve won (unless you think All Dogs Go to Heaven might have managed a shocking upset).
Could this Mermaid swim into contention for the 96th ceremony? Over the past decade, several efforts in this sub-genre have been nominated in different races. 2015’s Cinderella was up for its Costume Design. 2016’s The Jungle Book won Visual Effects. The following year it was Beauty and the Beast mentioned in Costume Design and Production Design. The Lion King in 2019 received a Visual Effects nod and 2021’s Cruella won Costume Design and contended in Makeup and Hairstyling.
Reviews for Mermaid are mixed with a 69% Rotten Tomatoes score. That’s better than The Lion King (52%) for example but nowhere near Jungle Book (94%). Some of the criticism is for its visual look and I’m skeptical it places among the final five. I’m also not feeling the love in the other aforementioned categories.
Original Song could be the saving grace. There are three new ditties in the remake with Bailey performing the ballad “For the First Time”. I would think it would be the track that the Mouse Factory campaigns for.
A lot of critics are praising Bailey herself. I highly doubt she is a possibility for Best Actress at the Oscars. However, a nom in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes is doable depending on the competition in the next few months. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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