As the sympathetic Dominic in The Banshees of Inisherin, Barry Keoghan is the next Case Of entry for the Supporting Actor contenders.
The Case for Barry Keoghan:
Following acclaimed performances including Dunkirk and The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Keoghan get his first major awards exposure along with his three Banshees cast mates. Critics Choice, SAG, and Golden Globe nods followed with a surprising win at BAFTA. His lovestruck monologue to Kerry Condon is a ready made for your consideration Oscar clip.
The Case Against Barry Keoghan:
Ke Huy Quan from Everything Everywhere All at Once has a dandy clip or two himself and he won Critics Choice, SAG, and the Globe. Academy members may assume Keoghan has plenty more bites at the apple and he could split votes with costar Brendan Gleeson.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
Despite the unexpected recognition from friends across the pond, Quan remains the heavy favorite for Supporting Actor.
My Case Of posts will continue with Steven Spielberg’s direction of The Fabelmans!
Write-ups for the other hopefuls in the race can be found here:
As the no-nonsense IRS inspector with hot dog hands in an alternate universe, Jamie Lee Curtis’s in Everything Everywhere All at Once is next up for my Supporting Actress Case Of posts.
The Case for Jamie Lee Curtis:
For four and a half decades, Curtis has been a mainstay on the silver screen across all genres from Halloween to Trading Places to A Fish Called Wanda and True Lies to Freaky Friday and Knives Out. Despite that impressive and varied filmography, Everything marks her first nom from the Academy. A victory could double as a career achievement award. That could help explain her surprise win last night at SAG. She also made the cut at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTAs.
The Case Against Jamie Lee Curtis:
The same career achievement narrative can be applied to Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and she won the Globe and Critics Choice. Kerry Condon from The Banshees of Inisherin took the BAFTA. Curtis could also split votes with her costar Stephanie Hsu.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
If I had written this post on Saturday, I wouldn’t have given Curtis much of a chance. The SAG recognition puts her in a three-way race with Bassett and Condon.
My Case of Posts will continue with Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin!
Write-ups for Curtis’s competition can be accessed here:
A weekend of awards precursors was a blessing for Everything Everywhere All at Once. It stormed tonight’s SAG Awards and won the top prize at PGA the evening before. Make no mistake – Everything is now an even stronger frontrunner to take BP at the Oscars.
At PGA, Everything emerged as predicted. Some prognosticators went with Top Gun: Maverick as an upset pick. It wasn’t to be. The Producers Guild also went with Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio in the animated field. This is just as all other major precursors have done. It appears on a glide path for the Academy statue.
My PGA miss was in Documentary Feature as they chose Navalny over Fire of Love. Given that it’s won BAFTA and PGA, Navalny is the favorite. I don’t think it’s automatic (like I do with Pinocchio in Animated), but the odds are certainly in its favor.
Now… let’s get into SAG. Wow. I went 3 for 6. I correctly selected Everything for Best Ensemble. I nailed Stunt Ensemble for Top Gun: Maverick. And Ke Huy Quan made it a near sweep (though BAFTA went with Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin) with tonight’s Supporting Actor win. His acting race is the easiest to project for the Oscars.
The other three? They got more interesting. And I missed them all tonight!
By far, the biggest surprise is Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything) being named Supporting Actress over Critics Choice and Golden Globe winner Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), who I predicted and BAFTA winner Kerry Condon (Banshees), who was my runner-up. That potentially makes it a three-person derby at the Oscars. It is worth noting that 9 of the past 10 Supporting Actress SAG victors became the Oscar recipient. So… discount Curtis at your own peril.
In the lead acting races, my runner-ups crossed the SAG finish line. It was Michelle Yeoh (Everything) in Actress over Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) instead of Austin Butler (Elvis), who did get some airtime graciously escorting various winners up the steps. Best Actor and Actress at the Oscars are now legit two-person competitions and I’ll be mulling them over before making final predictions. They’re coming March 8th ahead of the March 12th ceremony!
Bottom line: Everywhere did everything it needed to this weekend and then some while three acting races added real intrigue. Stay tuned!
Paul Mescal’s big screen breakout work in the coming-of-age drama Aftersun is the next Case Of post for the Best Actor contenders.
The Case for Paul Mescal:
At age 27, voters took notice of the Irish thespian with nominations at BAFTA and Critics Choice. Expect to see a lot of Mescal in the coming years with potential awards hopefuls from Richard Linklater, Garth Davis, and a Gladiator sequel.
The Case Against Paul Mescal:
Another young performer – Austin Butler as Elvis – is picking up the bulk of precursor victories. Mescal didn’t make the cut at the Golden Globes or SAG. His placement for Aftersun marks the picture’s sole Academy nom. That’s typically not a recipe for an Actor victory.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
Mescal should have more opportunities in the future. At the 95th Academy Awards, he’s probably fifth in the running for the aspiring quintet.
My Case Of posts will continue with Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once!
If you missed my other write-ups on the Actors, click here:
Playing a version of Steven Spielberg’s real mother, Michelle Williams is nominated for her fifth Oscarin The Fabelmans.
The Case for Michelle Williams:
From the moment this personal project of Spielberg’s was announced, Williams was correctly assumed to have an awards bait role. Precursor noms have materialized at Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. There could also be a feeling that she is overdue given that her track record is 0 for 4 on previous mentions.
The Case Against Michelle Williams:
Universal Pictures surprised everyone when they announced they were campaigning Williams in lead instead of supporting. I maintain that she would stand a considerably better shot at winning in the latter. Some wondered if the Academy might choose to put her up in supporting anyway. SAG and BAFTA left her off their ballots and there’s no significant victories to speak of. The general consensus and one I agree with is this is a two-person race between Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once).
Previous Nominations:
Brokeback Mountain (Supporting Actress, 2005); Blue Valentine (Actress, 2010); My Week with Marilyn (Actress; 2011); Manchester by the Sea (Supporting Actress; 2016)
The Verdict:
I believe the choice to slot Williams will universally be regarded as an unforced error. She seemed headed for 0 for 5.
My Case Of posts will continue with Paul Mescal in Aftersun!
If you didn’t catch my other write-ups on the contending Actresses, click here:
The 29th Screen Actors Guild Awards air this Sunday evening and they are often a reliable preview of what direction the Academy will go. In their races for Actress, Actor, and Supporting Actor – there has been an 8/10 correlation over the past decade for SAG/Oscar matches. With Supporting Actress – it is 9/10.
Let’s walk through each of the six categories with my predicted winner and a runner-up, shall we?
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Women Talking
Since the SAGs began in 1995, only one winner (1996’s The Birdcage) wasn’t at least nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. That rules out Babylon. I think (like some earlier precursors) this comes down to Everything v Banshees. I’m majorly tempted to say Banshees as the voters could see it as a way to honor the four thespians nominated in the individual races below. However, I’m giving a very slight edge to SAG doing the same for Michelle Yeoh, Jamie Lee Curtis, and others for Everything.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
SAG could bestow Yeoh with the trophy, but Blanchett’s work may simply be undeniable at this juncture. If Banshees ends up taking Ensemble, I do think it increases Yeoh’s chances here.
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Bill Nighy (Living), Adam Sandler (Hustle)
I feel like Farrell really needed that BAFTA last weekend and he didn’t emerge victorious. So it’s a two-person race between Butler and Fraser. And I’m struggling with this one. I could easily envision fellow actors crowning Fraser’s dramatic comeback that includes a Critics Choice award. Yet Butler has seen an impressive run that includes the Golden Globe and BAFTA. This is a coin flip, but I’ll say Butler has a little more momentum.
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
A quintet that matches the Oscar five, Condon disrupted the possibility of Bassett sweeping when she took the BAFTA. They’re the two likeliest winners. I will say Curtis scoring an upset is feasible. I think the smart money is on Bassett with Condon as the runner-up.
Predicted Winner: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Runner-Up: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
BAFTA again had a trick up their sleeve when Keoghan surprised over Quan. I think SAG will follow the lead of the Globes and Critics Choice and bring the latter back to the stage.
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Outstanding by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King
The only pic that I don’t think has a shot is Avatar because the original in 2009 didn’t even land a nom. 2018’s Black Panther won so Wakanda is certainly viable. Those pilots from Maverick did same amazing stuff though. They’re my pick.
Predicted Winner: Top Gun: Maverick
Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with my thoughts on what happened compared to my predictions.
Swedish satirist Ruben Östlund’s direction of Triangle of Sadness is next up in my Case Of posts for the directors vying for the Oscar.
The Case for Ruben Östlund:
After garnering acclaim for Force Majeure (2014) and 2017’s The Square (which nabbed a foreign language feature nod), his English-language debutcornered three noms in Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. It generated buzz early when it took the Palme d’or at Cannes. The admiration for the film led to his surprise inclusion in the filmmaking quintet.
The Case Against Ruben Östlund:
In Best Director, there is usually a surprise nominee. That’s Östlund this time. The downside is that the surprise nominee doesn’t win. He wasn’t up in any of the key precursors like DGA, Golden Globes, or Critics Choice Awards.
Other Nominations:
None for direction
Foreign Language Film (The Square; 2017); Original Screenplay (Triangle of Sadness; 2022)
The Verdict:
Of the five hopefuls in the race, Östlund stands the fifth best (so… worst) chance at nabbing the statue.
My Case Of posts will continue with Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans!
The other entries for the Best Director contenders can be accessed here:
For his brief but memorable appearance as an eccentric granduncle in Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, Judd Hirsch is next up in my Case Of posts for the Supporting Actor nominees.
The Case for Judd Hirsch:
From TV shows Taxi and Dear John to movies including Ordinary People and Independence Day, Hirsch has been a fixture on screens small and large for decades. His inclusion here comes 42 years after a nod in the same category for Ordinary People and that stands as the longest gap between recognitions in Oscar history. Besides that cool storyline, he scored a Critics Choice mention and managed to get in over his more favored costar Paul Dano.
The Case Against Judd Hirsch:
Hirsch was omitted at the Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA for individual honors. He’s only in the film for about 10 minutes and that’s brought some gripes about whether he should be in the quintet at all. Most importantly, Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is probably the sturdiest frontrunner in any of the acting competitions.
Previous Nominations:
Supporting Actor (Ordinary People; 1980)
The Verdict:
Hirsch was a real question mark to make the cut. There’s not much mystery about his chances to win as they’re basically non-existent.
My Case Of posts will continue with Ruben Östlund’s direction for Triangle of Sadness!
For my other posts covering the Supporting Actor contenders, click here:
As Colin Farrell’s kindly sibling in Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin, Kerry Condon is the next Supporting Actress hopeful for consideration in my Case Of posts.
The Case for Kerry Condon:
The stage and screen thespian stole some scenes in the main quartet of Banshees performers who were all nominated. Condon has landed precursor nods in all major ceremonies and picked up a few critics groups prizes.
The Case Against Kerry Condon:
Due to Angela Bassett’s performance in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Condon was not victorious at the Golden Globes or Critics Choice Awards. That leaves her, at best, in runner-up status.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
I do believe Condon is second at the moment and she could manage to upset frontrunner Bassett. A BAFTA win tomorrow or SAG next weekend could make her more viable. If Bassett continues to run the table, the gold might be out of reach.
My Case Of posts will continue with Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans!
Write-ups for the other Supporting Actress contenders can be accessed here:
As a morbidly obese English teacher attempting to reconnect with his daughter, Brendan Fraser’s performance in The Whale is next up in my Case Of posts.
The Case for Brendan Fraser:
After a three decade career with films as varied as Encino Man, George of the Jungle, Gods and Monsters, The Mummy, and Crash, Darren Aronofsky’s latest gave Fraser an acclaimed comeback narrative. Since the premiere in Venice, he’s been at the forefront of Best Actor chatter. This resulted in pending noms at SAG and BAFTA and a victory at the Critics Choice Awards.
The Case Against Brendan Fraser:
Reaction to the film itself has been as varied as the lead’s filmography. It missed a Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay nomination. The last Best Actor winner whose movie missed the BP cut is Jeff Bridges from Crazy Heart in 2009. Austin Butler (Elvis) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), who each took the respective lead Actor competitions at the Golden Globes, don’t have that problem.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
The narrative of a Fraser podium trip might be too enticing for voters to pass up. However, The Whale‘s divisive reaction throws real doubt as to whether he goes all the way.
My Case Of posts will continue with Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin!
If you missed the previous posts for the Actor hopefuls, you can peruse them here:
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