As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our fourth entry in the Best Actor derby is Michael B. Jordan playing the dual roles of Smoke and Stack in Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. If you missed my posts covering the first three leading men, they can be found here:
Last night’s Actor Awards where Jordan scored a minor upset victory after not winning previous precursors. Starring in one of two pics with a legit shot at Best Picture, Jordan’s win from the SAG branch comes at a crucial time when Academy members are actively voting. He was nominated everywhere else including at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It doesn’t hurt that Sinners scored a record setting 16 noms in total.
The Case Against Michael B. Jordan:
He came up short to Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) at Critics Choice and lost to Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) at the Golden Globes. Both performers are very much still in the mix and major threats to take the prize. The voters have two other chances to honor the Sinners cast via Wunmi Mosaku and Delroy Lindo in their respective supporting fields.
The Verdict:
We don’t know if Jordan’s Actor award is the knockout blow he needed. There’s little question that it upped his chances considerably.
My Case Of posts will continue with Jordan’s costar Wunmi Mosaku for Supporting Actress…
Some Oscar categories may have become more solidified (Supporting Actor) while others remain unsettled (Actor and Supporting Actor and perhaps Best Picture) courtesy of tonight’s 32nd Actor Awards. Formerly known as SAG, Kristen Bell returned to host the Netflix aired ceremony where Sinners remained a viable alternative to One Battle After Another for Best Picture in two weeks.
It was the only film to take 2 prizes as I correctly called it for Best Ensemble. Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale did take an acting honor, but not the one I forecasted. In Best Actor, Michael B. Jordan is the winner over Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and this opens up the real possibility of him grabbing the Oscar. After Robert Aramayo (I Swear) took BAFTA, Chalamet is looking truly vulnerable.
On a night where I went 4 for 6, the other miss was projecting BAFTA victor Wunmi Mosaku’s work in Sinners for Supporting Actress. Instead the Screen Actors Guild went with Critics Choice winner Amy Madigan in Weapons. That race is legit looking like an open contest between Madigan (who now has 2 key precursors) and Mosaku and Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another).
Battle‘s Sean Penn is your Supporting Actor honoree and he’s grabbed 2 trophies in a row (BAFTA). I wouldn’t want to bet against him on Oscar night for what would be a third gold statue.
Jessie Buckley’s sweep continued in Best Actress for Hamnet. With all preceding ceremonies going her way, she is unquestionably the easiest acting derby to predict for the Academy.
In the Stunt Ensemble race, the voters predictably went with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.
From a pure precursor standpoint, Battle has won top honors at the Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and PGA. That mix is hard to deny. Yet late breaking momentum certainly makes Sinners the easy runner-up and a threat to be the Academy’s BP.
Stay tuned to the blog for final Oscar predictions in a few days!
The Producers Guild of America (PGA) followed the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA and bestowed their best picture honors to Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another last night. It occurred during a weekend where Ryan Coogler’s Sinners has two shots to interrupt Battle‘s momentum. The second comes tonight at the Actor Awards (formerly known as SAG) where Sinners has a stronger chance to win the top Ensemble prize.
Even if it does, Battle‘s road to Oscar glory could be undeniable at this point with victories at the aforementioned precursors. A reminder that PGA and the Academy’s BP have matched five times in a row. I correctly called the biggest category and did the same in the animated race with KPop Demon Hunters. That Netflix phenomenon has also landed trophies at earlier ceremonies including the Globes and Critics Choice. The only place it didn’t was BAFTA where it wasn’t eligible and Zootopia 2 emerged. Yet that Disney sequel will likely be #2 to KPop in Academy tabulations.
The only surprise at PGA came in documentary where My Mom Jayne, Mariska Hargitay’s exploration of her relationship with mother Jayne Mansfield, was the winner. I went with another Netflix hit The Perfect Neighbor. Jayne is not among the doc quintet at the Oscars. Neighbor, seen as the Academy favorite, definitely looks vulnerable and I wouldn’t discount BAFTA recipient Mr. Nobody Against Putin or The Alabama Solution.
Keep an eye on the blog for my recap of the Actor Awards later tonight!
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our fourth performer in Best Actress is Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value. If you missed my posts covering the previous three contenders, you can access them here:
Following her acclaimed performance in 2021’s The Worst Person in the World from Joachim Trier, the Norwegian actress became a major awards player. Their follow-up premiered at Cannes last summer in which she won Best Actress. Nominations at the BAFTAs, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes have followed.
The Case Against Renate Reinsve:
Simply put – Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. She’s taken home all the aforementioned precursors and appears poised to be the only acting competition sweeper. Along with her Oscar nominated costars Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, the SAG Actor branch completely ignored the Value cast.
The Verdict:
In this Best Actress quintet, Reinsve will be a bridesmaid and not the bride.
My Oscar Prediction posts will continue with the next hopeful in Best Actor – Michael B. Jordan for Sinners…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The third director for discussion is Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme. If you missed my posts covering Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Ryan Coogler (Sinners), you can access them here:
We went into 2025 wondering which Safdie brother would get the Oscar attention. Brother Benny put out The Smashing Machine in the fall and it generated only a Makeup and Hairstyling nod. Josh’s Marty Supreme nabbed nine mentions including Best Picture. For his direction, precursors noms have come at DGA, Critics Choice, and BAFTA.
The Case Against Josh Safdie:
Paul Thomas Anderson has taken all 3 of those precursors and Ryan Coogler is generally seen as the runner-up. Safdie missed the cut at the Golden Globes.
The Verdict:
Safdie’s first solo work in 17 years could see Timothée Chalamet crowned as Best Actor. That is Supreme‘s best and likely only shot at gold.
My Case Of posts will continue with the fourth entrant in Best Actress – Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value…
The ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards is now the Actor Awards and the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs Sunday, March 1st. Kristen Bell returns to host a show that is tough to predict, especially in the supporting fields where no frontrunner has emerged via the precursors. Will the Screen Actors Guild help make it clearer or muddy it up even more?
Let’s walk through the six movie races with my thoughts and a winner and runner-up projection. I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with initial thoughts and how I did.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Over the past 10 years, this ensemble award has matched the Academy’s Best Picture half the time (Spotlight, Parasite, CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer). I would definitely say the two pics with a shot to win are Battle and Sinners, the two BP favorites. While the former may have an edge with the Academy, my hunch is that SAG goes with Ryan Coogler’s sprawling cast.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
This category has matched Oscar 6 out the last 10 years. Actress is the only competition where the possibility of a sweep is still open. Jessie Buckley has triumphed everywhere else and I see no compelling reason why this guild would change that.
WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
The idea of a Chalamet sweep was halted when BAFTA unexpectedly rolled with Robert Aramayo in I Swear (who isn’t nominated here or at the Oscars). My hesitation to pick Chalamet has less to do with that and more to do with the fact he won SAG Actor last year for A Complete Unknown. I could see Hawke taking this prize for his showy role or the voters selecting Jordan. Ultimately I’m not pulling the trigger on the upset, but don’t discount the possibility. There is a 7 for 10 Actor/Oscar match over the past decade.
WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Ugh… this is a tough one. There is no consistency among the precursors – Critics Choice went with Madigan, the Globes honored Taylor, and BAFTA picked Mosaku. One could certainly argue that Mosaku has the momentum and that if Sinners takes Best Ensemble, it increases the chances of a solo acting victory. Taylor could solidify her status as Oscar favorite with this award. This is essentially a three-way coin flip. Madigan could certainly emerge as this branch has shown the ability to honor the horror genre in a way the Academy doesn’t (see Demi Moore last year for The Substance). My gut says Sinners gets that one solo prize though I cannot stress enough that I almost went with Taylor. There is a 9 for 10 match with this branch and Oscar since 2015.
WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
There’s a 9 for 10 match here as well and this is just as wide open as Supporting Actress. Critics Choice called Elordi as their winner, Globes picked Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value (not nominated here), and BAFTA went with Sean Penn. In this case, I am going with the BAFTA momentum though his costar del Toro might pose the realest threat.
WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Tom Cruise’s franchise is known for stunts so I wouldn’t bet against it.
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Delroy Lindo is our third possibility in Supporting Actor for Sinners. If you missed my posts covering the first two, they can be accessed here:
As Delta Slim in Ryan Coogler’s blockbuster, Lindo is a well-respected veteran in a movie that could win Best Picture. There is also a feeling that he was snubbed in 2020 for his lead work in Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods. Supporting Actor is wide open this year with different winners at the Globes (Stellan Skasgård in Sentimental Value), Critics Choice (Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein), and BAFTA (Sean Penn in One Battle After Another).
The Case Against Delroy Lindo:
Notice you don’t see his name as a recipient anywhere. In fact, you won’t because Lindo missed out on nominations at SAG, the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It is extremely rare for someone to nominated (let alone win) without being up at any of those precursors. You have to go back to Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock 25 years ago to find the last one. The voters can honor the Sinners cast elsewhere via Michael B. Jordan and especially BAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku.
The Verdict:
With the absence of noms everywhere else, logic would dictate that Lindo isn’t a threat to take gold. However, this Supporting Actor derby is unpredictable enough that I wouldn’t completely discount it. The chances increase if Sinners can pry BP away from One Battle.
My Case Of posts will continue with the third filmmaker contending for Best Director, Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our third contender among the Supporting Actress nominees is Amy Madigan for Weapons. If you missed the first two write-ups covering the performers from Sentimental Value, you can access them here:
1985 – Best Supporting Actress (Twice in a Lifetime) – lost to Anjelica Huston for Prizzi’s Honor
The Case for Amy Madigan:
The only thespian in the race who’s not a first-time nominee, Madigan’s work as the supremely creepy Aunt Gladys in Zach Cregger’s horror pic arrives 40 years after her initial nod for Twice in a Lifetime. She won the Critics Choice prize and has been nominated at the Globes and SAG Actor. If they bestowed the trophy based on number of Halloween costumed inspired by her role, Madigan would take this in a landslide.
The Case Against Amy Madigan:
Madigan was snubbed at BAFTA. You have to go back to 2018 and Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) to find the last Oscar recipient who didn’t make the cut there. Prior to that, it was Marcia Gay Harden (Pollock) in 2000. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) took the Globe as we await SAG. This genre doesn’t produce a lot of acting winners and Weapons missed all other categories including Original Screenplay and Makeup and Hairstyling. Penélope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona) is the last Supporting Actress honoree whose movie only got one nomination and that was in 2008.
The Verdict:
A SAG victory would elevate Madigan’s stock and she is probably runner-up in the race at the moment behind Taylor.
My Case Of posts will continue with third entrant in Supporting Actor – Delroy Lindo for Sinners…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The third entrant in Best Actor is Ethan Hawke as songwriter Lorenz Hart in Richard Linklater’s musical dramedy Blue Moon. If you missed my posts covering Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio, they can be accessed here:
2001 – Supporting Actor (Training Day) – lost to Jim Broadbent for Iris; 2014 – Supporting Actor (Boyhood) – lost to J.K. Simmons for Whiplash
The Case for Ethan Hawke:
He has garnered some career best notices and made the cut at significant precursors like the Globes, Critics Choice, SAG Actor, and BAFTA. For a career lasting over three decades, Hawke been on a roll lately mixing indies with horror and TV work. Voters may wish to give him his due, especially after being snubbed a few years back for First Reformed and nabbing two other Oscar nods for his Before Sunset and Before Midnight screenplays.
The Case Against Ethan Hawke:
A signature precursor victory has yet to materialize. Chalamet’s performance in Marty Supreme has swept the season thus far. Moon is the sole pic represented in Best Actor that doesn’t come from a Best Picture nominee.
The Verdict:
An upset win is unlikely to occur unless Hawke manages a SAG or BAFTA trophy. Barring that, Chalamet remains the sturdy frontrunner.
My Case Of posts will continue with the third contestant in Supporting Actress and that’s Amy Madigan in Weapons…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. We have arrived at our third contestant in Best Actress and that’s Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue. If you missed my posts covering the first two contenders, you can find them here:
2000 (Supporting Actress) – Almost Famous – lost to Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock
The Case for Kate Hudson:
Hollywood loves a good awards comeback story and this marks Hudson’s second try at Oscar glory after a quarter century and probably almost winning for Almost Famous. For her performance as the real-life Claire from a Neil Diamond tribute band in Craig Brewer’s musical drama, Hudson has picked up precursor noms at SAG Actor, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes.
The Case Against Kate Hudson:
As I mentioned in the write-up for Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, you have to go back to 2014 and Julianne Moore (Still Alice) to find the last Best Actress winner whose movie managed just one nomination. Hudson missed out at Critics Choice. Blue itself received mixed reviews. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) has swept thus far.
The Verdict:
Hudson had a much stronger chance 25 years ago as Penny Lane than she has today.
My Case Of posts will continue with the third entrant in Best Actor – Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 