A couple of months back, Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine played the festival circuit prior to its release and saw its awards prospects tumble. Benny’s brother Josh (they made Good Time and Uncut Gems together among others) goes solo with Marty Supreme on Christmas Day. After a “surprise” showing at the New York Film Festival last month, the review embargo is lifted today. Unlike Machine, Marty should be a smash at the Oscars and elsewhere.
The 1950s set dramedy features Timothée Chalamet in the title role (as an ambitious ping pong star) with an eclectic supporting cast including Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A’Zion, Kevin O’Leary (of Shark Tank fame), Tyler Okonma (better known as Tyler, the Creator), Abel Ferrara, and Fran Drescher.
Early reaction from the Big Apple indicated this should be a major player at the Academy Awards and today’s critical reaction solidifies the buzz. Rotten Tomatoes is at 96% with 88 on Metacritic. Supreme has been perched in my top 5 possibilities for Best Picture throughout 2025 and that appears to be the right call. Like One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, and Sentimental Value – this is a BP prediction that you should feel comfortable writing in ink.
That same logic certainly applies to Chalamet in what many write-ups are calling career best work. He will turn 30 two days after Supreme‘s release, but he is going for nomination #3 after 2017’s Call Me by Your Name and last year’s A Complete Unknown. I’ve had him ranked 1st for months based on the notion that this seems like an awards friendly role. Chalamet was also the likely runner-up for Best Actor at the 97th ceremony when he fell short to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. There is competition for the gold at the 98th production, especially from Battle‘s Leonardo DiCaprio and maybe Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon). Yet the third time could definitely be the charm for Mr. Supreme.
Supporting Actress is tough to pinpoint. A’Zion is being called the breakout performance while Paltrow is being heralded for a comeback role. All scenarios are possible as they could both get in or cancel each other out. It makes it trickier that there’s potential double nominees for Sentimental Value with Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass and perhaps Sinners with Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld. If only one makes the cut, I’m a bit stumped as where the edge lies. I’ve had Paltrow ranked slightly above A’Zion. Precursors should assist in offering clues. Right now my gut says both do not make the quintet and one of them does. I could flip a coin at the moment between them.
As for other above the line races, Safdie’s inclusion in Director isn’t automatic but the embargo lapse makes me more confident he gets in. Original Screenplay (from Safdie and Ronald Bronstein) shouldn’t be a problem.
There is a number of possibilities in tech competitions and it starts with the new Best Casting award which Supreme (with its unexpected roster choices) looks tailor made for. The pic also seems viable in Best Cinematography (from two-time nominee Darius Khondji), Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. A best case scenario could even include Sound though I suspect several rivals could close that door.
This means the A24 release could rack up a dozen nods under the rosiest projections with high single digits seemingly happening. Wins might be hard to come by in a number of them, but its lead has boosted his chances even more with a month left in the calendar year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As October draws to a close, it’s time for a deep dive into the Best Picture race with two months left in the release calendar. I’ve done the same with the directing competition and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups over the past few days, you can access them here:
I published my first preview of the Best Picture field on April 17th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the 10 BP hopefuls along with 15 other possibilities . At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
After the Hunt
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
The Life of Chuck
Marty Supreme
No Other Choice
The Rivals of Amziah King
Sentimental Value
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
Alpha
Ballad of a Small Player
Bugonia
Die, My Love
F1
Frankenstein
Highest 2 Lowest
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Materialists
Michael
One Battle After Another
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Testament of Ann Lee
Let’s dispense with the movies that are no longe viable. The Rivals of Amziah King and Michael will be 2026 releases. The following titles did not get solid enough reviews, box office, or a combo of both to truly be threats: After the Hunt (which I initially had ranked at #1 back in the spring), The Life of Chuck, (despite winning the 2024 Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival), Alpha, Ballad of a Small Player, Die, My Love (though Jennifer Lawrence could contend in Actress), F1 (which was a critically appreciated hit and could nab some tech nods), Highest 2 Lowest, Kiss of the Spider Woman (perhaps Jennifer Lopez can sneak in Supporting Actress), Materialists, and The Smashing Machine.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and The Testament of Ann Lee aren’t dead in the water, but the former is a sizable box office disappointment with some less than stellar reviews and the latter is perhaps too divisive. Their leads Jeremy Allen White and Amanda Seyfried have healthier chances in the lead acting contests.
So let’s get into the 11 of the 25 aforementioned titles that do still have a decent chance and a few others worthy of mention.
The soft frontrunner appears to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another with its multiple acting contenders and some of the highest critical praise of the year. Even though it disappointed a bit at the box office, the Cinemascore grade of A indicates it would be a satisfactory audience choice for voters to select. Plus PTA is generally seen as overdue for Academy affection.
Its biggest competition could be Hamnet from Chloé Zhao, who picked up a directorial prize and a BP win for 2020’s Nomadland. History could repeat five years later for her heralded historical drama.
I’m also confident that Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, the vampiric financial smash from the spring, will be remembered on BP ballots even though horror flicks often have a hard time breaking through. This should be a welcome exception.
Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is a festival darling that has enough goodwill to make the BP cut.
Two upcoming releases have their review embargoes intact but have screened to encouraging word-of-mouth: Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (where Timothée Chalamet appears to be a Best Actor favorite) and Wicked: For Good, part two to Wicked which garnered BP and other nominations last year. Both should find themselves among the ten.
That’s six pics (One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good) that I’m confident are in. Twelve others are jockeying for the four additional slots.
I’ve had Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein in and out of my lineup at various times. I’m becoming more convinced it could be Netflix’s best chance in BP.
An argument could easily be made that the streamer’s Jay Kelly from Noah Baumbach is their strongest horse with its Hollywood friendly storyline. Some reviews have been lukewarm, but I still am leaning toward it placing in the 10.
To close the Netflix loop, Train Dreams has its ardent admirers and I wouldn’t totally discount it. Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite seems to be fizzling a tad due to some ambivalent audience reaction, but a rebound is not out of the question.
Avatar: Fire and Ash looks to follow in the footsteps of its two predecessors. Having it in or near the selected 10 seems like a smart move but screenings will soon tell the tale.
Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident from Neon took the Palme d’Or at Cannes and I’m increasingly confident it’ll be an international contender in its own race and BP (like Neon’s Sentimental Value).
The Secret Agent (Neon) and No Other Choice (Neon) could accomplish the same dual noms though it’s rare for more than two international submissions to get into the big dance. And not every Neon distributed foreign title can make the list… can they?
Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos may be a touch too oddball for BP though I’d be careful to dismiss the latest from The Favourite and Poor Things maker.
Richard Linklater’s has had an impressive year with Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague though I’m guessing neither are real threats.
Finally, Song Sung Blue (out Christmas) is said to be a crowdpleaser and Kate Hudson is a possibility in Best Actress. A Musical/Comedy BP spot at the Globes seems more feasible than Academy love.
Keep an eye on the blog with updated rankings on BP and all other feature film races hitting shortly!
Focus Features may focus part of their awards campaigning on Song Sung Blue as it readies a Christmas Day release. The musical drama comes from Hustle & Flow and Dolemite Is My Name director Craig Brewer and tells the true story of a down-on-their-luck couple who form a Neil Diamond tribute band. Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson play the crooners with a supporting cast including Ella Anderson, King Princess, Michael Imperioli, Mustafa Shakir, Fisher Stevens, and Jim Belushi.
Blue played at the AFI Fest earlier this week and word-of-mouth indicates this could be a crowdpleaser with holiday box office potential. There aren’t a large volume of reviews out yet with 80% on Rotten Tomatoes and perhaps a more telling 57 on Metacritic. Best Picture is likely not in the cards.
The best and probably only chance at a nomination is Kate Hudson for lead Actress. Even some of the negative ink is singing her praises. If she makes the cut, it would come 25 years after her first and only nod in supporting for Almost Famous.
I believe it’s pretty safe to assume Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) have secured placement in the quintet. That leaves two slots for a handful or so of contenders and Hudson could have an enticing narrative for voters in a showy role. My feeling right now is she just misses, but my thoughts could shift based on precursors. Frontrunner Buckley, by the way, is contending in another Focus distributed project and they could train their sights on securing her the victory.
The film seems poised to be a factor at the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy categories including Picture and Jackman, and Hudson in their lead derbies. Oscar could be a tougher sell and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. Best Actor and the supporting fields have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, please find them here:
I published my first preview of the lead Actress field on April 11th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Other Possibilities:
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Olivia Colman, The Roses
Jodie Foster, A Private Life
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
What’s pretty amazing is how viable many of these contenders still are. In fact, it wouldn’t be totally crazy for my initial quintet to still be the final quintet. I believe there’s an excellent shot that 80% of them get in. Before we get to them, let’s dispense with the other possibilities that are no longer possibilities, shall we?
Olivia Colman (The Roses) and Jodie Foster (A Private Life) have OK chances to make the cut at the Globes in lead Actress in a Musical/Comedy. However, the former Oscar winners will not be returning to that ceremony. I’d say the same for June Squibb as Eleanor the Great drew mixed notices from critics and was a non-factor at the box office. Then there’s Jessica Lange. It seems like Long Day’s Journey Into Night is always about to come out, but never does. I’ve had her listed as a possibility in 2023 and 2024 and now 2025 and there’s still no release date. Perhaps she’ll pop up again for 2026.
Emma Mackey’s work for December’s Ella McCay is still unseen. The fact that it skipped autumn festivals could be telling, but you never know. Lucy Liu’s performance in Rosemead has been heralded at fests and distributor Vertical should push her as they picked up distribution rights for a December bow. I’m just not convinced it’ll get enough eyeballs for her to truly contend.
The other nine actresses among the 15 above are very much worthy of discussion, along with a couple others. That discussion begins (and ultimately could end) with Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. As Agnes Shakespeare, wife to the famed playwright in Chloé Zhao’s historical drama, she drew raves at Telluride and Toronto. Slated for wide release in December, the pic should garner multiple noms and Buckley is in the pole position for a victory.
Her biggest competition could be Renate Reinsve from another fest favorite Sentimental Value. I had her at #1 for awhile until Hamnet was unveiled.
While it’s still unseen, Cynthia Erivo could make it two in a row with the second part of Wicked and once again join her costar Ariana Grande (in supporting) as a nominee.
And while the movie itself drew divergent reactions, Amanda Seyfried was widely praised for The Testament of Ann Lee and Searchlight seems poised to mount a spirited campaign.
All four were in my inaugural April predictions. All four still are at the moment. The one that’s not is Julia Roberts in After the Hunt despite her being on top when I did my first ranked projections a few months ago. Since then, Hunt has been hindered plenty of negative reviews and poor box office. It’s not unthinkable for the 2000 Best Actress recipient to make the cut though it is a more remote possibility at this juncture.
Of the other possibilities from April, four still are. I could easily give two-time winner Emma Stone the spot. A Bugonia BP nom would help. The Academy could also feel like she’s been honored enough.
Rose Byrne has never been nominated for an Oscar and she’s getting career best notices for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Precursor attention and critics groups trophies could put her in.
Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love) and Tessa Thompson (Hedda) face trickier odds and if either got in, it’d be considered an upset right now. That dynamic could shift if the Globes/Critics Choice/SAG start naming either of them.
When it comes to names not mentioned in the initial 15, Sydney Sweeney has many critics saying she delivers in the boxing biopic Christy. Her chances could be KO’d by middling reviews for the pic itself.
Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby) got her flowers at Sundance and beyond. She would need precursors to gain any momentum.
There are two actresses not in the April mix that certainly are now. Chase Infiniti will be campaigned in lead for One Battle After Another which could become the next BP. The Warner Bros announcement that Infinti (in her first feature film role) is going for Actress and not Supporting Actress has caused many prognosticators to shift their thinking. She’s far from automatic (or close to it) like her costars Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and Teyana Taylor but she could find herself joining them on the red carpet.
Finally, Kate Hudson was up 25 years ago in supporting for Almost Famous. Her role in the forthcoming Song Sung Blue is rumored to be an Oscar-baity part. We’ll know more tomorrow when it screens at the AFI Fest.
My in-depth look at the big races will continue with Best Director!
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and Actress and continues today with Best Actor. If you missed my write-up on the supporting players, you can find them here:
I published my first preview of the lead Actor field on April 8th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere
Other Possibilities:
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player
Jaafar Jackson, Michael
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Andrew Scott, Pressure
Let’s dispense with the easy subtractions, shall we? The Rivals of Amziah King with Matthew McConaughey seems more likely to release in 2026. Same goes for Jaafar Jackson in Michael and Andrew Scott in Pressure. Paul Mescal (Hamnet) will contend in Supporting Actor where I am predicting him to get a nomination.
The reviews and buzz simply doesn’t exist for Colin Farrell in Ballad of a Small Player or McConaughey in The Lost Bus. Same for Willem Dafoe in Late Fame though a surprise Globe or SAG or Critics Choice nod could make him a remote possibility. I would say the same logic applies to Lee Byung-hun for No Other Choice and Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine. For the latter, subpar box office doesn’t help his chances which were once seen as rock solid.
Beyond the names above, there’s a slew of once promising contenders who have fizzled out for one reason or another. It includes Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest), Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?), Brendan Fraser (Rental Family), and Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein). I don’t expect to see their names among the nominees.
So let’s discuss who I think is truly in the mix and it’s ten actors. Half will make the cut and half will not. There could be 11 via the soon to be screened Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman though Kate Hudson is rumored to be the awards play from that one.
From my first ranked predictions in April, I’ve had Timothée Chalamet in the #1 spot after he was probably the runner-up for Actor last year to Adrian Brody (The Brutalist) for his embodiment of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. The review embargo is still intact for December’s Marty Supreme, but early word-of-mouth indicates the top ranking is justified and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
Jeremy Allen White’s portrayal of The Boss in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere is out tonight. His nomination seems more probable than not even though the pic itself is a question mark in BP.
George Clooney as Jay Kelly is more of an unknown as the movie has its ardent supporters and some detractors. If Kelly gets into BP, it significantly increases his odds.
Daniel Day-Lewis, a three-time winner, could get in just because he’s Daniel Day-Lewis. However, Anemone drew mixed reactions and was a non-entity at the box office.
Other than Chalamet, the performer I’m most confident makes the quintet is Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another. He’s a threat to take gold if the aforementioned competition fizzles out in the potential BP frontrunner.
Like Clooney, Jesse Plemons would benefit from Bugonia sneaking into BP. A better than currently expected performance from the film could grant him admission.
Blue Moon is a long shot for BP, but voters could still make room for veteran Ethan Hawke. He’d be vying for his third overall nom after supporting recognition for Training Day and Boyhood.
Train Dreams is also probably not on track for BP though Joel Edgerton has a so-so chance of getting in if other awards branches or critics groups bring him up.
Sinners, on the other hand, is a surefire hopeful in the big dance and Michael B. Jordan could get swept in for his dual role in the smash hit.
Wagner Moura was Best Actor at Cannes for The Secret Agent and I’m starting to believe his odds are increasing.
So there you have it. I think Chalamet and DiCaprio have punched their tickets with White close to doing the same unless Springsteen is a notable flop. The other seven are vying for slots four and five. My in-depth look at these high profile categories will continue with Best Actress!
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and continues today with Supporting Actress. If you missed my write-up on Supporting Actor, you can find it here:
I published my first preview of the Supporting Actress field on April 6th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Let’s dispense with a couple of those names. Angelina LookingGlass’s heralded work in The Rivals of Amziah King has not been scheduled for 2025. At this point, I’m assuming it will come out in 2026.
After the Hunt has lost its awards luster after a poor commercial and critical reaction. While her costar Julia Roberts may have a long shot chance at making the Actress cut, I don’t see the same for Edebiri.
The other three names are very much viable. Ariana Grande was nominated last year as Glinda the Good Witch and was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez). While For Good has yet to screen, it stands to reason that she could make a return to the lineup. I’ve had her ranked first the whole year and we’ll see if that remains when word-of-mouth comes in.
Teyana Taylor’s performance dominates the first third of One Battle After Another (arguably the BP frontrunner). That should be enough for her to be the most likely Supporting Actor nominee in the film and we’ll get to Regina Hall shortly.
Gwyneth Paltrow is not a guaranteed competitor like her costar Timothée Chalamet is in lead actor. However, her work in Marty Supreme is definitely viable in this unformed race. The same could be said for her costar Odessa A’Zion though I’d put Paltrow ahead.
My 10 other possibilities that I listed back in April are:
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Greta Lee, Late Fame
Nia Long, Michael
Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Let’s start with Regina Hall. When it was announced that Chase Infiniti would compete in lead Actress for Battle, it opened the door for Hall. I maintain that she’s behind her costar Taylor. I currently have her on the outside looking in, but wouldn’t be surprised if she hears her name called. In the 21st century, we’ve seen double nominees in this category 10 out of 25 times. The last example was 2022 when Jamie Lee Curtis won for Everything Everywhere All at Once while her cast mate Stephanie Hsu was also up. The other times were as follows:
2000: Frances McDormand and Kate Hudson, Almost Famous
2001: Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith, Gosford Park
2002: Catherine Zeta-Jones (winner) and Queen Latifah, Chicago
2006: Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
2008: Amy Adams and Viola Davis, Doubt
2009: Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
2010: Melissa Leo (winner) and Amy Adams, The Fighter
2011: Octavia Spencer (winner) and Jessica Chastain, The Help
2018: Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Another possibility of two nominees from the same pictures lies with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) and her costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. The former seems marginally more likely but Lilleass is absolutely a threat to make the quintet.
A third possibility of two actresses from one feature is Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld from Sinners. That’s a more remote possibility and the film would really have to over perform for either to get in.
Back to those 10 other possibilities. Michael was pushed to 2026 so there goes Nia Long. Laura Dern, America Ferrera, Greta Lee and Emily Watson are all long shots at best after their movies screened. For Dern and Watson, they could see some of their costars nominated.
Emily Blunt could factor in if she manages SAG or Critics Choice or a Globe nod. Yet The Smashing Machine was a major box office flop and that doesn’t help. The same logic applies to Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman.
Glenn Close is arguably considered the best thespian who hasn’t won an Oscar despite eight attempts. That could help her cause in Rian Johnon’s latest murder mystery, but none of the actors from Knives Out and Glass Onion made it despite respective buzz for Ana de Armas and Janelle Monae.
One name not on my radar in April was Amy Madigan in Weapons. The summer sleeper gave the veteran actress an unforgettably creepy role that should inspire many a Halloween costume next week. I’m starting to really think she could find herself in the quintet.
So there you have it, readers! I would say Grande, Taylor, Fanning, Lilleass, Madigan, Paltrow and Hall are the seven likeliest contestants with potential surprises including Close, Lopez, Blunt and Mosaku. I will zone in on Best Actor in the next write-up!
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It begins with Supporting Actor.
I published my first preview of the Supporting Actor field on April 5th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Colman Domingo, Michael
Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Let’s dispense with some of those names. Domingo’s work as the Jackson family patriarch in Michael won’t be seen until 2026 after the studio delayed it.
The Life of Chuck, despite winning the coveted audience prize at 2024’s Toronto Film Festival, never picked up steam as a contender when it opened this summer. Hamill would desperately need a Globe or SAG or Critics Choice nom to have any shot at the big dance. I don’t see it happening.
Then there’s Garfield. In April, I envisioned Luca Guadagnino’s Hunt as a surefire player in several races. Yet it’s become a critical and commercial disappointment and I suspect it could be completely blanked come nomination morning.
As for the 10 other possibilities, those names:
Joe Alwyn, Hamnet
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
Brendan Fraser, Pressure
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
LaKeith Stanfield, Die, My Love
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
Brendan Fraser’s work as Dwight Eisenhower in the war drama Pressure is looking like a 2026 release. When it comes to Alwyn in Hamnet, I was assuming that Paul Mescal’s performance in that pic was going to be a lead actor submission. It has just recently been confirmed that Mescal will go supporting and it is he and not Alwyn who’s viable.
Denzel Washington is definitely a lead contender for Lowest and we’ll address his chances in that post. As for Cooper, Stanfield, Tyler, the Creator, and Wright – that quartet of performances did not garner awards buzz upon their unveilings.
So let’s talk about who is viable, shall we? In my estimation, there are three hopefuls whose nominations seem assured or darn close to it.
One Battle After Another will receive a BP nod and it has a real chance of winning. Two-time winner in lead Actor Sean Penn should be up for his villainous turn, marking his seventh overall at bat and first in the supporting field. It’s actually been 17 years since his last nom when he took gold for Milk.
Stellan Skarsgård is the name in my original top five that I’m still confident remains. Sentimental Value, while possibly losing a little luster in recent weeks, should make the BP cut and his work is arguably the most heralded.
The third performer I’m convinced of is Paul Mescal. Like Battle and Value, Hamnet is looking solid in BP. His costar Jessie Buckley is the frontrunner in Actress and he should come along for the ride.
Then it gets complicated. Adam Sandler has been in my #4 spot for a few weeks. The SNL alum has not seen his name called by the Academy despite chatter for Punch-Drunk Love and especially Uncut Gems. This offers a legit opportunity for voters to honor him. However, Sandler’s fortunes could be tied to whether Jay Kelly makes BP and that’s very much in question. As for now, I have him in but it’s far from assured.
Jeremy Strong was up last year in this category for The Apprentice. He could make it two years in a row as The Boss’s longtime manager Jon Landau in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere. I’m less convinced the biopic makes BP than any of the other pictures above. He’s still a strong (no pun intended) possibility to join his costar Jeremy Allen White on the red carpet.
So, at the moment, my five would consist of Penn, Skarsgård, Mescal, Sandler and Strong (in that order). Who could change that dynamic?
Benicio del Toro could. 25 years years after he emerged victorious in Supporting Actor for Traffic, his comic relief as the helpful sensei in One Battle After Another is quite memorable. If the movie is indeed the BP force it might be, the coattails could leave room for him. The Academy has had a habit of nominating two performances from the same film here. From 2017 to 2022, it happened at every ceremony but one:
2017 – Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson from Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Rockwell won)
2019 – Al Pacino and Joe Pesci from The Irishman
2020 – Daniel Kaluuya and LaKeith Stanfield from Judas and the Black Messiah (Kaluuya won)
2021 – Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee from The Power of the Dog
2022 – Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan from The Banshees of Inisherin
I came very close to putting him in over Strong in my update a week ago.
In 2020, Delroy Lindo was expected to be up for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods but he was snubbed. Members could give him his first nom for Sinners, which is another likely BP nominee. I like his chances better than costars Miles Caton or Jack O’Connell though they’ve been mentioned too.
Ethan Hawke’s lead work in Blue Moon is being predicted by more prognosticators recently and that includes me. He could bring costar Andrew Scott along with him.
If Frankenstein makes BP, it increases the chances that Jacob Elordi’s portrayal of The Monster is alive in the minds of those filling out ballots.
A couple of other possibilities to address. While Josh O’Connor grew raves at screenings for the upcoming Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, I’m not buying him being the franchise’s first acting nominee. Rental Family doesn’t appear to be a threat in BP and that hurts Akira Emoto’s inclusion. The mixed reaction to Anemone might leave Daniel Day-Lewis out of Best Actor. That makes the chances of Sean Bean making the quintet remote at best.
The only unseen performance worth mentioning in my view is Jonathan Bailey in Wicked: For Good. He managed a SAG nod as Fiyero in part 1 last year. If part 2 is generally perceived as equal to what preceded it, the cast could be rewarded beyond Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.
So there you have it, readers! I would say Penn, Skargård and Mescal are in with Sandler, Strong, del Toro, Lindo, Scott, Elorodi and Bailey battling for the remaining two slots. Let’s see if and how that changes as the weeks roll along. My in-depth look at Supporting Actress is up next!
The New York Film Festival has wrapped up with Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On? debuting prior to its December release. Being that his previous two directorial efforts (A Star Is Born, Maestro) were up for BP, Thing was a curious piece to the emerging awards puzzle. The verdict? While some reviews were strong, I don’t think it’s enough to factor into the Oscar conversation with the possible exception of Original Screenplay. You won’t find Will Arnett, Laura Dern or Cooper in my acting possibilities. I do think the film could get attention at the Globes if it’s placed in Musical/Comedy.
This is the time of year where category placements are becoming clearer. Not surprisingly, Paul Mescal is confirmed as a Supporting Actor hopeful for Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
More surprisingly, it was revealed that Chase Infiniti will contend for lead Actress in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. I had her slotted in Supporting Actress and getting a nomination in that race last week. This upends the dynamic. I absolutely think she could get in the lead derby, but I went back and forth between her, Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) with only two of them making the cut and Seyfried coming out on the short end. The Infiniti announcement also means Regina Hall could join her costar Teyana Taylor in supporting. For now I have Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass joining her Sentimental Value costar Elle Fanning in that group of five. Under a best case scenario, Battle could see six of its performers (Leonardo DiCaprio, Infiniti, Taylor, Hall, Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro) up for gold. That would set an Academy record for thespians competing. It might be a long shot, but it is a possibility.
While Another’s chances are plenty, the continued poor box office performance of The Smashing Machine (with around a 70% plummet in weekend #2) confirms my feeling that Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt’s campaigns are on life support at best. They both drop from my 10 possibilities.
Perhaps the biggest story of the week was New York’s “surprise” screening of Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme prior to its December release. Unlike Bradley Cooper’s third picture, Safdie’s inaugural behind the camera production solidified its status as a top five BP contender. Timothée Chalamet, it turns out, appears to deserve the #1 ranking I’ve had him with all along in Best Actor. Much like Battle, Supporting Actress is more confusing. While Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A’Zion could see their names called among the quintet (with the former seemingly more realistic), both are far from automatic. I am elevating Safdie back in the directorial five. That’s at the expense of Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value).
In Best Actor, I’m putting Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) in the high five for the first time with Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) now on the outside looking in.
And in BP, Bugonia is back in and clinging to the 10 spot with No Other Choice dropping. A note that I came very close to putting Frankenstein in.
You can read all the movement below and that includes Sean Penn rising to 1st in Supporting Actor after Stellan Skarsgård has held that position for many weeks.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+1)
12. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Is This Thing On?
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jafar Pahani, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actress)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)
8. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (moved to lead Actress)
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Akira Emoto, Rental Family
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Is This Thing On? (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (E)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rental Family
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)
4. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Seeds (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Alabama Solution (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Librarians (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cutting Through Rocks
The Eyes of Ghana
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rental Family
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Snow White
Hedda
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hamnet (PR: 9) (+2)
8. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (-2)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Weapons (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sentimental Value
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-2)
9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+1)
4. F1 (PR: 3) (-1)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Warfare (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mickey 17 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lost Bus
And that equates to these films nabbing these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good
11 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Marty Supreme
9 Nominations
Hamnet
7 Nominations
Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Bugonia
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
Both of Bradley Cooper’s directorial efforts – 2018’s A Star Is Born and 2023’s Maestro – were Best Picture nominees. Can Is This Thing On? make it three for three? The comedic drama focused on a separated couple (Will Arnett and Laura Dern) has closed out the New York Film Festival prior to its slated December 19th debut. Mr. Cooper is in the supporting cast alongside Andra Day, Amy Sedaris, Arnett’s Smartless cohost Sean Hayes, Christine Ebersole and Ciarán Hinds.
The early 92% Rotten Tomatoes score indicates another critically appreciated pic from its maker. Yet some of the reaction calls this a more minor effort from Cooper and company. I anticipate Metacritic’s rating will be noticeably lower. Early word-of-mouth has me suspecting this thing isn’t an Academy player despite comparisons to Marriage Story (which happened to get Dern a Supporting Actress Oscar). If it gets in anywhere, Original Screenplay would be it though competition is considerable.
The Golden Globes are a different story if Fox Searchlight campaigns for it in Musical/Comedy. That would be the smart strategic move and could mean noms in Picture and the lead acting races for Arnett and Dern. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Miles Teller, Elizabeth Olsen and Callum Turner are in a love triangle in the afterlife set rom com Eternity from director David Freyne. The A24 title releases November 14th and played the Toronto Film Festival. Recent Supporting Actress winner Da’Vine Joy Randolph (said to steal some scenes) and John Early costar.
The studio is hoping its visible leads bring moviegoers out to a genre often relegated to streaming in recent years. Reviews are measured but saying it’s a decent crowdpleaser with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 64 Metacritic. This is unlikely to factor into awards conversations unless it manages to sneak into Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes or with Olsen in lead Actress. I doubt it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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