Tag: Golden Globes

Oscars: The Case of Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Actor and that’s Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Cinderella Man (Supporting Actor, 2005)

The Case for Paul Giamatti:

He has an Emmy and a Globe as the title character in HBO’s John Adams from 2008, but Paul Giamatti has just one Oscar nod for his supporting work in Cinderella Man. For that nomination, he was in the mix but came up short to George Clooney in Syriana. That means he was snubbed for 2003’s American Splendor and, most notably, 2004’s Sideways. There could be an overdue narrative brewing. As temperamental teacher Paul Hunham in his second collaboration with Alexander Payne behind Sideways, Giamatti has won the Globe for Actor in a Comedy/Musical and took the Critics Choice Award. He’s also in contention for BAFTA tomorrow and SAG next week.

The Case Against Paul Giamtti:

That the Oppenheimer love will translate to Cillian Murphy being named. He is the recipient of the Globe for Actor in a Drama. Perhaps voters will feel The Holdovers is being properly honored in Supporting Actress where Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the frontrunner.

The Verdict:

Giamatti stands an excellent chance… as does Murphy. My suspicion is that Murphy takes BAFTA and Giamatti is out front as SAG. If that pans out, we are in for a showdown on the evening of the Academy’s festivities. If either of the performers win BAFTA/SAG, consider them the strong favorite.

My Case Of posts will continue with America Ferrera in Barbie…

Oscars: The Case of Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Actress and that’s Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Sandra Hüller:

The German actress earned raves for her turn in Justine Triet’s Cannes Palme d’Or winning French legal drama which earned five overall nods including Picture. She also added to her impressive 2023 with her role in BP nominated The Zone of Interest (where she probably came up just short in Supporting Actress). The Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA put her in their mix and she’s received a few regional critics prizes.

The Case Against Sandra Hüller:

Hüller has yet to win a key precursor as those have gone to Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). She missed SAG. France dropped the ball by selecting The Taste of Things as their International Feature Film contender instead of Anatomy. If they had, it might have taken that race (over The Zone of Interest) and those coattails could’ve helped.

The Verdict:

Stone or Gladstone are the favorites. However, if an upset did occur, Hüller could pull it off and that’s especially true if she wins the BAFTA. I wouldn’t bet on it, but I wouldn’t totally dismiss the possibility.

My Case Of posts will continue with Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers…

Oscars: The Case of Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second filmmaker in Best Director and that’s Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things. Let’s get to it!

Previous Directing Nominations:

The Favourite (2018)

The Case for Yorgos Lanthimos:

From his 2009 Greek psychological drama Dogtooth to the 2015 pitch black satire The Lobster and 2017 medical thriller The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Lanthimos has emerged as one of the most acclaimed directors of the 21st century (with some comparisons to Kubrick). Absurdist costume period piece The Favourite was his awards breakout with 10 nods and an Actress victory for Olivia Colman. His follow-up absurdist costume period piece Poor Things did that one better with 11 and it has its hardcore supporters. He’s picked up DGA, Critics Choice, and Globe mentions.

The Case Against Yorgos Lanthimos:

That all important DGA precursor went to Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer and he also received the Globe and Critics Choice. It looks like it’s simply his year. Lanthimos was also snubbed for BAFTA.

The Verdict:

Actress for Emma Stone and Production Design are Oscar things his film could get. Not this category.

My Case Of posts will continue with Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall…

Oscars: The Case of Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

The Godfather Part II (Supporting Actor, 1974, WON); Taxi Driver (Actor, 1976); The Deer Hunter (Actor, 1978); Raging Bull (Actor, 1980, WON); Awakenings (Actor, 1990); Cape Fear (Actor, 1991); Silver Linings Playbook (Supporting Actor, 2012)

The Case for Robert De Niro:

As a crime boss wreaking slow havoc on the Osage nation, De Niro enters his sixth decade in awards contention for his 10th collaboration with Martin Scorsese. He hit the quad of major precursors with nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA. If he were to emerge victorious, he would do so in the same race where he nabbed his first OScar 49 years earlier as Vito Corleone in The Godfather Part II. That’s an admittedly cool storyline.

The Case Against Robert De Niro:

Robert Downey Jr.’s narrative for Oppenheimer is also compelling and he’s the frontrunner as he’s picked up the Globe and Critics Choice already. Killers has shown vulnerability with omissions for costar Leonardo DiCaprio and in Adapted Screenplay.

The Verdict:

Not even a legend as large as De Niro seems able to disrupt Downey Jr.’s momentum. The film’s best chance at an Oscar lies with Lily Gladstone.

My Case Of posts will continue with the direction of Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things…

Oscars: The Case of Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second performer in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Danielle Brooks in Blitz Bazawule’s The Color Purple. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Danielle Brooks:

The role of Sofia in other Color Purple iterations earned Oprah Winfrey an Oscar nomination nearly four decades ago and nabbed Brooks a Tony nod when she played it on Broadway almost a decade back. Her showy role was expected to generate awards attention and she got in at the four highest profiles precursors (Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, BAFTA).

The Case Against Danielle Brooks:

The Orange is the New Black cast member lost the Globe and Critics Choice to Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers. Furthermore, Purple has not been the Academy player that Warner Bros. hoped for. Brooks marks the picture’s sole nomination.

The Verdict:

Before Purple underperformed on the circuit, Brooks sat atop the projections of most prognosticators (include this one). She’s second or third now – definitely behind Randolph and probably Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer.

My Case Of posts will continue with Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon…

Oscars: The Case of Colman Domingo in Rustin

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second performer in Best Actor and that’s Colman Domingo as Rustin. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Colman Domingo:

As the principal organizer of the March for Freedom Rally, Domingo’s turn as Bayard Rustin in George C. Wolfe’s Netflix biopic was identified early on as Academy bait. He’s been nominated in all the key precursors: Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It’s been a year of significant exposure with this, his supporting turn in The Color Purple, and the lead in Sing Sing (which premiered at Toronto and could garner awards attention for him next year).

The Case Against Colman Domingo:

The film itself did not become a contender in other categories. Domingo’s nod marks its sole nomination and he’s the only hopeful in Actor from a movie not up for BP. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) have emerged in the forerunning contests.

The Verdict:

Given the fact that Rustin never really approached BP vying status, it’s impressive that Domingo checked off all the major ceremonies (leaving Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon on the outside looking in). Don’t expect a rally of support for a major upset win.

My Case Of posts will continue with Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple…

76th DGA Awards Recap

How reliable is the Director Guild top prize when it comes to correlating with the Oscar winner? In the previous 75 ceremonies, the DGA victor has matched the Academy’s 67 times. The most recent example of a diversion is 2o19 when Sam Mendes (1917) took DGA while Bong Joon-ho was your Oscar recipient.

Despite that fairly fresh example, the thinking going into last night’s show was that Christopher Nolan could effectively sow up his Oscar if he got the DGA. He did. The fifth time was the charm for the Oppenheimer maker as he had previously been nominated for Memento, The Dark Knight, Inception, and Dunkirk without a trophy to show for it. The Academy has been less generous as he’s in contention for only the second time (his other nom there was with Dunkirk). With victories now at DGA, Critics Choice, and the Globes (with BAFTA seemingly next) – Nolan appears well on his way to Oscar glory.

I went 3 for 3 on my picks covering feature films. Celine Song (Past Lives) made the podium trip for First-Time Feature Film. There was slightly more intrigue in that contest as Cord Jefferson (American Fiction) provide some competition. While Fiction had a better showing in terms of mentions at the Oscars (5 noms to 2 for Past Lives), Song seemed more probable for this race and that went according to script.

20 Days in Mariupol appears to be the frontrunner for Documentary Feature at the big show. Its maker Mstyslav Chernov is the winner at DGA for Documentaries. It’s worth noting that, unlike Feature Film, there isn’t a strong correlation between DGA/Oscar recipients for Documentary Feature. The last match (ironically) is 2019 with Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert for American Factory. This stands an excellent shot at being the next one.

We are now less than a month away from the Oscars. Keep checking out the blog for all the coverage!

Oscars: The Case of Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second performer in Best Actress and that’s Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Lily Gladstone:

After critically appreciated roles in Kelly Reichardt’s Certain Women and First Cow, Gladstone has been in the awards conversation since Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon was announced. Her work as Mollie Kyle in the historical epic won her the Golden Globe for Actress in Drama and the National Board of Review prize. That’s in addition to nominations at Critics Choice and SAG. Gladstone could make history as the first Native-American thespian to emerge victorious in the category.

The Case Against Lily Gladstone:

Any possibility of a sweep ended when Emma Stone took Critics Choice for Poor Things. Then there’s the shocking BAFTA omission. Gladstone did not make the cut for that show. Since 2010, only one Best Actress Oscar winner (Jessica Chastain for 2021’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye) has missed BAFTA. Killers also underperformed a bit with misses in Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio) and Adapted Screenplay.

The Verdict:

SAG on February 24th could offer a gigantic clue as to whether Gladstone or Stone are the soft frontrunner. That BAFTA snub sticks out. That said, Gladstone is a real contender.

My Case Of posts will continue with Colman Domingo in Rustin…

Oscars: The Case of Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Director quintet and it starts with Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest. Let’s get to it!

Previous Directing Nominations:

None

The Case for Jonathan Glazer:

The English filmmaker’s fourth feature comes after three acclaimed predecessors: 2001’s Sexy Beast, 2004’s Birth, and 2014’s Under the Skin. The Holocaust drama is the frontrunner for Best International Feature Film and had a solid showing with five nominations. He hopes to follow in the footsteps of other directors in recent years who took the prize along with IFF like Alfonso Cuaròn (Roma) and Bong Joon-ho (Parasite).

The Case Against Jonathan Glazer:

Cuaròn and Joon-ho didn’t have to compete against the juggernaut that is Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer. He is the far and away favorite. Glazer managed a BAFTA mention, but didn’t make the cut for Critics Choice, the Globes, or DGA.

The Verdict:

Barring a massive upset, Nolan towers over all competitors.

My Case Of posts will continue with Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon…

Oscars: The Case of Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Supporting Actor quintet and it starts with Sterling K. Brown in Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Sterling K. Brown:

An Emmy and Globe winner for his small screen work on This Is Us, Brown breaks through with the Academy as Jeffrey Wright’s estranged brother in the BP contender. Fiction performed at the high end of its range on nomination morning with five and the Academy may wish to honor it somewhere. He made the cut at SAG and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Sterling K. Brown:

If voters do honor Fiction somewhere, it’s probably going to be in Adapted Screenplay. Brown did not get in at the Globes or BAFTA. And Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) has swept so far and is rightly seen as the favorite. In fact, in a recent interview, Brown himself said he anticipates RDJ taking the gold.

The Verdict:

This is not going to be a walk to the podium for Brown.

My Case Of posts will continue with Jonathan Glazer’s direction in The Zone of Interest…