Tag: Golden Globes

81st Golden Globe Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards (airing January 7th) were unveiled this morning. As always, there were some surprises and it was a particularly weak day for one hopeful. That said, a lot of what transpired went according to plan. I went 74 for 92 on my picks (I’ll take it!).

Let’s walk through each race with how I did and my initial take on who or what may emerge victorious.

Best Motion Picture Drama

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Nailed the Drama category as this probably will come down to Oppenheimer vs. Killers.

Best Motion Picture Musical/Comedy

Nominees: Air, American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, May December, Poor Things

How I Did: 5/6

In what might be the most surprising omission of the morning, The Color Purple didn’t make the cut. I (along with everyone else) had it in. I didn’t have Air though it was my alternate. Barbie is the frontrunner though Poor Things is viable.

Best Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Celine Song (Past Lives)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Just as in Motion Picture Drama, Nolan vs. Scorsese might be the showdown with Gerwig as a potential spoiler.

Best Actress Drama

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

I wouldn’t discount Hüller or Mulligan as slight upset picks, but Gladstone looks to be the favorite.

Best Actor Drama

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Like the Oscar race, this could end up as a contest between Cooper vs. Murphy.

Best Actress Musical/Comedy

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Jennifer Lawrence (No Hard Feelings), Natalie Portman (May December), Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 4/6

Pöysti is an out of nowhere selection while Lawrence was my alternate. They get in over Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (You Hurt My Feelings). This is either Stone (probably) or Robbie (maybe).

Best Actor Musical/Comedy

Nominee: Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario), Timothee Chalamet (Wonka), Matt Damon (Air), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Joaquin Phoenix (Beau Is Afraid), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

How I Did: 5/6

Phoenix in over Gael Garcia Bernal for Cassandro. Wright has a shot, but this is Giamatti’s category to lose in my view.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 5/6

I would’ve picked Brooks as the likely winner until Purple‘s poor performance today. Now I think this acting race, perhaps more than any other, is wide open. I had Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) in instead of Pike.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

How I Did: 5/6

Had Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) and not Dafoe. Downey Jr. is the probable selection though I wouldn’t discount Gosling or Melton.

Best Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/6

I did not have Anatomy or Past Lives. Their inclusion is by no means shocking, but I am genuinely surprised The Holdovers did not make the list (neither did American Fiction). This is another race where the voters could go several directions with Barbie perhaps having an ever so slight edge.

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One, Oppenheimer, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

How I Did: 7/8

This new category can correctly be called the “Barbenheimer” award or the “Let’s Get Taylor Swift To The Ceremony Trophy”. I didn’t have Reckoning and instead had Elemental. Hard to imagine this not going to Barbie.

Best Non-English Motion Picture

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, Io Capitano, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/6

Here’s where I screwed up. Didn’t have Leaves, Capitano, or Past Lives (which is considered non-English for some reason here). Instead I had Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, and The Teachers’ Lounge. This should come down to Anatomy vs. Zone and I’m currently expecting the former to emerge.

Best Animated Motion Picture

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Suzume, Wish

How I Did: 4/6

Suzume and Wish get in over Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget and Nimona. Some others were blindsided that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem didn’t make it. Boy vs. Spidey is the showdown.

Best Original Score

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 5/6

Zone makes the derby instead of Nyad. This should be Oppenheimer.

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me, “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

How I Did: 3/6

Well, I got half and those were the Barbie tracks. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple, and “A World of Your Own” from Wonka were my picks instead of “Addicted to Romance” (which could mean Bruce Springsteen shows up), “Peaches”, and “Road to Freedom”. I’d say “What Was I Made For?” or “I’m Just Ken” win.

And there you have it. I’ll have final predictions for the Globes up shortly before airtime. Keep an eye on the blog for all things Oscar!

2023 Oscar Predictions: December 10th Edition

My first Oscar predictions for the month of December comes on the eve of Golden Globe nominations and days after NBR and AFI revealed their best of for 2023.

There is a change in BP as American Fiction is back in with Anatomy of a Fall out. In Best Actress, Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) reaches the #1 spot. She overtakes Emma Stone in Poor Things who has held the position for several weeks. Gladstone’s rise happens as her costars Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro slip a little in their categories. Also in Best Actress, Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to the quintet at the expense of Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple. In Actor, Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) is in over Colman Domingo (Rustin).

Another development worthy of discussion is Visual Effects. Earlier this week, the top 20 hopefuls were announced and Oppenheimer was nowhere to be found. I’d previously had it ranked #1 in the race, but it drops from contention.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)

9. American Fiction (PR: 11) (+2)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)

Other Possibilities:

11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (-1)

12. May December (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-1)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)

15. Air (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All of Us Strangers

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-3)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Viola Davis, Air

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4 (E)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colman Domingo, The Color Purple

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rustin

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-1)

7. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 10) (+3)

8. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tótem (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feautre

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Peasants (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wish (PR: 7) (E)

8. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 8) (E)

9. Suzume (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3 The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Four Daughters (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

9. American Symphony (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Every Body

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Barbie

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Maestro (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Killer (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Air (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nyad (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Priscilla

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elemental (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-5)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (-3)

7. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Joan Still” from Theater Camp

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wonka (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ferrari (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Killer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Godzilla Minus One (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Oppenheimer

Society of the Snow

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro

6 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest

5 Nominations

The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Past Lives

2 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Nimona, Nyad, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish

81st Golden Globe Awards Nominations Predictions

Prior to its January 7th airing on CBS and Paramount+, nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards are out Monday, December 11th. After years of airing on NBC, the ceremony has found a new home after the controversies of the last few years involving the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

That’s not the only change with the program. The categories we are used to have expanded from five to six nominees. And a new competition – Cinematic and Box Office Achievement – comes with eight contenders. We could safely coin this the “Barbenheimer” race unless Taylor Swift has something to say about that.

As always, there’s some controversy in the differentiation between Drama and Musical/Comedy placements. Netflix decided to campaign Todd Haynes’s May December in the latter even though Drama seems more appropriate. It could help it get more noms.

Here we go with my picks in each cinematic derby and I’ll give you an alternate with each.

Motion Picture (Drama)

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Saltburn

Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

American Fiction

Barbie

The Color Purple

The Holdovers

May December

Poor Things

Alternate: Air

Film Director

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

Actress (Film Drama)

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Cailee Spaney, Priscilla

Alternate: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Actor (Film Drama)

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Alternate: Zac Efron, The Iron Claw

Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, You Hurt My Feelings

Natalie Portman, May December

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings

Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Gael Garcia Bernal, Cassandro

Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario

Timothee Chalamet, Wonka

Matt Damon, Air

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Alternate: Jamie Foxx, The Burial

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Julianne Moore, May December

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Supporting Actor

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Best Screenplay

American Fiction

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: May December

Cinematic and Box Office Achievment

Barbie

Elemental

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

John Wick: Chapter 4

Oppenheimer

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Alternate: The Little Mermaid

Motion Picture (Non-English Language)

Anatomy of a Fall

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Taste of Things

The Teachers’ Lounge

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: The Promised Land

Motion Picture (Animated)

The Boy and the Heron

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Elemental

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Alternate: Wish

Original Score

The Boy and the Heron

Killers of the Flower Moon

Nyad

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Elemental

Original Song

“Dance the Night” from Barbie

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

“Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot

“A World of Your Own” from Wonka

Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

Barbie

8 Nominations

Oppenheimer

7 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

6 Nominations

Poor Things

5 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

4 Nominations

Maestro, May December

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Nyad, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

1 Nomination

Air, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Cassandro, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Dream Scenario, Flamin’ Hot, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rustin, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, The Teachers’ Lounge, You Hurt My Feelings

Oscar Predictions: Wonka

Wonka hopes to score some sweet box office business when it debuts December 15th, but could awards voters take notice? Telling the origin story of Roald Dahl’s iconic chocolatier, Timothee Chalamet steps into the title role previously played by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2005. Paul King, best known for making Paddington and its sequel, directs. The supporting cast includes Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Baynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant as an Oompa-Loompa.

The review embargo is lifted and early results are solid with an 80% Rotten Tomatoes score. It is worth noting that it’s under both Gene Wilder’s classic (91%) and the 2005 remake (83%).

Wonka‘s best shot at Academy attention is in tech races (though don’t be surprised if Chalamet nabs a Golden Globe nod for Actor in a Musical/Comedy). It could score a Costume Design nomination like Charlie did 18 years ago. The best shot might lie in its Production Design though competition is fierce with contenders like Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, Asteroid City, and Napoleon. There simply might not be enough room.

One last possibility is Original Song, particularly “A World Of Your Own” crooned by Chalamet. I haven’t had it my top ten in previous predictions, but it might show up there in the next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Best Picture 2005: The Expanded Ten

Previously on the blog, I completed a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!

Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2006-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:

Best Picture 2006: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2007: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2008: The Expanded Ten

We do know half of the titles that would populate the ten. Those would be the ones that made the quintet 18 years back. During that 78th Oscar ceremony, Jack Nicholson made the surprise announcement that race relations drama Crash from Paul Haggis was the Best Picture winner. Of its seven total nominations, it also won Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

It stands as one of the bigger upsets in the Academy’s history as it took gold over the heavily favored Brokeback Mountain by Ang Lee. He won Director and the cowboy romance also received Adapted Screenplay and Original Score. The other three nominees: Bennett Miller’s Capote (for which Philip Seymour Hoffman took Best Actor), George Clooney’s Good Night, and Good Luck, and Steven Spielberg’s Munich.

2005 was the rare year where the Director nominees matched perfectly with BP so we can’t pluck out other movies from that competition. A look at the other categories do give us clues as to the other features that might’ve gotten in.

James Mangold’s Cash couple biopic Walk the Line landed Joaquin Phoenix a Best Actor nod and Reese Witherspoon the Actress statue. With a total of five mentions, a Golden Globe victory in the Musical/Comedy race, and a Critics Choice slot, it’s pretty safe to assume it makes the ten.

Same goes for The Constant Gardner from Fernando Meirelles. Rachel Weisz took Supporting Actress and it received three other noms in addition to Golden Globe and Critics Choice inclusions.

Another Critics Choicer nominee, Rob Marshall’s Memoirs of a Geisha got 6 tech nods and won 3 (Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design). I went back and forth on this one, but ultimately decided it probably makes the dance.

A fourth Critics Choice match goes to Ron Howard’s Cinderella Man. The boxing drama could be left off. It missed some key nods including Russell Crowe’s lead performance (Paul Giamatti was nominated for supporting) and screenplay. I think it might have just snuck in at the bottom of hopefuls.

With one picture left to plug in, there’s plenty of contenders. Hustle & Flow saw a surprise win (for Three 6 Mafia) in Original Song and Terrence Howard made the Actor five. Woody Allen’s Match Point had a sole nom in Original Screenplay, but made the Globes cut in Drama. Joe Wright’s Pride & Prejudice rendering saw Keira Knightley up in Actress in addition to three other mentions.

Ultimately my final choice came to this trio. Peter Jackson’s King Kong went 3 for 4 on its tech inclusions (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects). However, it was generally considered a bit of a disappointment at the box office and with some critics. That said, I almost picked it.

Syriana by Stephen Gaghan gave George Clooney a Supporting Actor Oscar and was up for Original Screenplay. Yet it failed to see a Critics Choice or Globe BP nod. Nevertheless I almost picked it.

I chose to go with David Cronenberg’s A History of Violence. It received two noms for Supporting Actor (William Hurt) and Original Screenplay and was a critical darling. I went with the Academy honoring a work from the acclaimed director (especially since most of his efforts are far from Oscar friendly).

That means my expanded 2005 ten consists of:

A History of Violence

Brokeback Mountain

Capote

Cinderella Man

The Constant Gardner

Crash

Good Night, and Good Luck

Memoirs of a Geisha

Munich

Walk the Line

I’ll have 2004 up in short order!

Oscar Predictions – Dicks: The Musical

Dicks: The Musical was unveiled at midnight screenings during the Toronto Film Festival last month. The outrageous comedy is based on an off-Broadway play with a more risqué title from Josh Sharp and Aaron Jackson. They headline the cast along with Nathan Lane, Megan Mullally, Bowen Yang, and Megan Thee Stallion. Larry Charles, collaborator with Sacha Baron Cohen on Borat and Brüno, directs.

Opening in wider release tomorrow after a limited run on the coasts, it stands at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 74 reviews. This probably won’t even get in the mix for Musical/Comedy races at the Golden Globes. The one Academy prospect worth mentioning are the tunes. There are original tracks separate from the source material and distributor A24 is expected to tout them for contention. One being singled out by critics is “Out Alpha the Alpha” by Ms. Thee Stallion.

Funny R-rated songs rarely make the cut with awards voters. 1999’s “Blame Canada” from South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut is an outlier. I wouldn’t count on the raunchy ditties making enough ballots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Best Picture 2006: The Expanded Ten


Earlier this year, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!

Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2007 and 2008 and you can peruse my posts on them here:

Best Picture 2007: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2008: The Expanded Ten

We begin with the obvious. There’s a quintet of titles that would’ve made the dance because they already did. Martin Scorsese’s The Departed was the first title from the legendary filmmaker to win BP and he also won his only statue for direction. It additionally took home Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing and nabbed Mark Wahlberg a Supporting Actor nod.

The other four contenders were Babel from Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, picking up 7 nominations with its sole victory in Original Score. Clint Eastwood’s Letters from Iwo Jima got in for BP, Director, Original Screenplay, and won for Sound Editing. Little Miss Sunshine had two trophies for Supporting Actor (Alan Arkin) and Original Screenplay. Helen Mirren’s podium trip in Actress for Stephen Frears’s The Queen was the only win in its six mentions.

So what else? Bill Condon’s Dreamgirls managed to underperform on nominations morning and still lead with 8 overall nods. Jennifer Hudson took Supporting Actress and it was honored for its Sound Mixing. Despite it not garnering BP, Director, or a screenplay mention, I think it gets in with an expanded ten.

Same goes for Blood Diamond which went 0 for 5 but scored key noms in Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Supporting Actor (Djimon Hounsou), and Film Editing.

Todd Field’s Little Children got BP love at Critics Choice and the Globes with Oscar nods for Actress (Kate Winslet), Supporting Actor (Jackie Earle Haley), and Adapted Screenplay. The acclaim probably puts it in.

Paul Greengrass made the final five for his direction of United 93, which also had a Film Editing mention. It makes my cut as well.

As for the 10th slot, options abound. Al Gore’s environmental documentary An Inconvenient Truth was a box office success (especially for the genre) and went 2/2 in its nominations in Documentary Feature and Original Song. I almost picked it to make the ten. Notes on a Scandal received four mentions for its leads Cate Blanchett and Judi Dench and its adapted screenplay and score. You could easily put it in the mix and I wouldn’t argue. Children of Men from Alfonso Cuaron received three noms in Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. Clint Eastwood had another WWII epic with Flags of Our Fathers which was up in both sound races. And Borat was a buzzy phenomenon which received an Adapted Screenplay nomination.

Yet I’m going with Pan’s Labyrinth as my final selection. Even though it lost the Foreign Language Film race to Germany’s The Lives of Others, Guillermo del Toro’s creation was up in six races and won three – Art Direction, Cinematography, and Makeup.

That means my expanded ten consists of:

Babel

Blood Diamond

The Departed

Dreamgirls

Letters from Iwo Jima

Little Children

Little Miss Sunshine

Pan’s Labyrinth

The Queen

United 93

I’ll have 2005 up for your reading pleasure soon!

Oscar Predictions: Dream Scenario

Kristoffer Borgli’s dark comedy Dream Scenario premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its November 10th theatrical release. The A24 effort casts Nicolas Cage as a nerdy professor who inexplicably starts showing up in people’s dreams. Julianne Nicholson, Michael Cera, Tim Meadows, Dylan Gelula, and Dylan Baker costar.

The Dream reviews are mostly on the plus side with an 84% Rotten Tomatoes rating. There’s really only two categories where I see Oscar possibilities. Mr. Cage is being praised for his work. He could be in line for a third Best Actor nod behind 1995’s Leaving Las Vegas (for which he won) and 2002’s Adaptation. He likely came close to his third nod for 2021’s Pig. Yet as I’ve already discussed on this blog, there’s a quintet of contenders who already look strong in the race. That would be Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). It almost seems too easy, right? That’s why I figure at least one of those gentlemen get snubbed. Cage could fill the gap, but there’s other hopefuls in the mix. I think his chances to be named in the Musical/Comedy competition at the Golden Globes is stronger.

Original Screenplay is feasible and perhaps even more so if A24 campaigns hard for it. Nominations in those two derbies are the dream scenario with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Hit Man

Glen Powell got a whole lotta exposure last year with his memorable supporting turn in Top Gun: Maverick. It sounds like he’s got a heckuva starring vehicle via Hit Man, Richard Linklater’s latest that premiered at Venice. The action comedy is cowritten by the director and his star. The buzz out of Italy is strong and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.

Linklater is a three-time screenwriting Oscar nominee for 2004’s Before Sunset and 2013’s Before Midnight (in Adapted) and 2014’s Boyhood (in Original). Hit Man is based on a magazine article. Despite the kudos for Powell’s performance (Best Actor is just too crowded already), it’s Adapted Screenplay where this stands a shot at recognition for the two scribes.

Assuming this is slotted in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, I wouldn’t discount this nabbing a Best Picture and Actor nomination from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: El Conde

Chilean filmmaker Pablo Larrain is no stranger to awards attention. His 2012 effort No was an Academy Award nominee for Best Foreign Language Film (now best International Feature Film) while 2016’s Neruda was up in the same race at the Globes. Also in ’16, his English language debut Jackie scored Natalie Portman an Actress nod at the Oscars. Five years later, Kristen Stewart contended in the same category for Spencer.

At the Venice Film Festival, his latest El Conde (or The Count) has premiered prior to its Netflix debut on September 15th. Set in the director’s native land, it creates an alternate universe where dictator Augusto Pinochet (Jaime Vadell) is a vampire.

Reviews are mostly positive with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score. However, I wouldn’t say they’re strong enough that it receives the kind of attention granted to Larrain’s aforementioned titles. Chile may select it as their pick for International Feature Film. Making the final five seems like a reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…