Tag: Golden Globes

98th Academy Awards Predictions: January 13th Edition

It has been nearly a month (!) since my last Oscar predictions on December 17th and a whole lotta activity has happened since. The Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards aired. SAG Actor noms and BAFTA long lists were unveiled. The Directors and Producers Guild gave us their contenders. And we arrive at my penultimate picks for the 98th Academy Awards. You can expect my final predictions on Sunday or Monday.

So what’s changed since the week before Christmas? Well, you have to read below for that!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Sirāt (PR: 13) (E)

14. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

15. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Clint Bentley, Train Dreams

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)

10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-1)

8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

10. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Weapons (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-3)

10. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (E)

9. Pillion (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Hedda

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Sirāt (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Belén (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The President’s Cake

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. Scarlet (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Endless Cookie (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+1)

4. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Seeds (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (E)

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Sirāt (PR: 9) (E)

10. Weapons (PR: 10) (E)

Bst Cinematography

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sirāt (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)

10. F1 (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Sirāt

No Other Choice

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Kokuho (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Alto Knights (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sirāt (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Our Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Drive” from F1

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Phoenician Scheme

Hedda

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sirāt (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

10. Superman (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Superman (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Lost Bus (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilties:

6. Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Electric State (PR: 10) (E)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

13 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, Sirāt

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters

1 Nomination

Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2

January 16-18 Box Office Predictions

Avatar: Fire and Ash should finally relinquish its box office crown after four weeks to 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on fourth entry in the post-apocalyptic franchise here:

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple Box Office Prediction

Bone follows 28 Years Later by only seven months. While I don’t envision it matching the $30 million start achieved by its predecessor, my $20M projection has it leading the way over Avatar which should see a lower to mid teens gross.

Holdovers should populate the rest of the top 5. I will note the possibility that anime flick All You Need is Kill could make the cut in its domestic debut, but I’m not doing an estimate since I haven’t seen a theater count. If that dynamic changes and I feel it could make the high five, I’ll update. Same goes for the expansion of freshly minted Golden Globe Best Drama recipient Hamnet.

This is MLK weekend though I’m only predicting the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the frame. You usually see smaller drops for leftover titles during this time period. Primate seems poised for the biggest dip. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple

Predicted Gross: $20.1 million

2. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million

3. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Primate

Predicted Gross: $6 million

Box Office Results (January 9-11)

Avatar: Fire and Ash made it a four-peat with $21.5 million, on track with my $20 million call. That brings the third offering in James Cameron’s epic series to $342 million thus far.

Primate scored the highest debut of the newcomers (something I incorrectly forecasted) with $11.1 million in second. The monkey gone wild tale topped my $9.7 million prediction for a respectable start.

The Housemaid continued its meager drops in third with $10.9 million, ahead of my $8.2 million guesstimate. The buzzy thriller is nearing nine digits with $93 million in the bank.

Zootopia 2 was fourth with $10 million (I said $9.8 million) to bring its gargantuan haul to $378 million with $400 million domestic easily in its sights.

Gerard Butler action sequel Greenland 2: Migration struggled in fifth with $8.4 million compared to my $12.9 million prediction. I wrongly thought it would place second.

Finally, Bradley Cooper’s third directorial feature Is This Thing On? didn’t stand out with audiences. In its wide expansion, it was 11th with $2.3 million. I went a tad higher at $2.6 million and it’s made $3.4 million total when factoring its limited release.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

83rd Golden Globe Awards Reaction

Chloé Zhao looked about as shocked as I imagine most awards pundits (including this one) were when Hamnet took Best Drama at the end of the Golden Globes this evening. It was my runner-up to take the prize, but Sinners was the rather heavy favorite to get it. It provided a surprise ending to a ceremony where Ryan Coogler’s acclaimed horror tale only took two races with Cinematic and Box Office Achievement and Original Score. It had it winning four.

One Battle After Another from Paul Thomas Anderson did win four GG’s: Picture (Musical or Comedy), Director, Screenplay, and Teyana Taylor in Supporting Actress.I got the first 3 right while I had Amy Madigan (Weapons) in the fourth competition after her Critics Choice Awards victory a week ago. This sets up a more intriguing Supporting Actress showdown.

Same goes for Supporting Actor where Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) is back in the game after a podium walk tonight. That’s a boost he needed after being snubbed by SAG voters earlier this week. He was my pick for the GG.

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) continued winning for Hamnet for Actress (Drama) in what may well be a sweep). Same goes for Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) in Actor (Drama) while Rose Byrne is your Actress victor in Musical or Comedy for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Those were all correct calls on my part. I got it wrong in Actor (Musical or Comedy). I went with Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) though The Secret Agent’s Wagner Moura was in the envelope. It’s a needed prize for the Brazilian thespian after he too was a SAG omission and failed to make the BAFTA long list. My fourth miss was predicting It Was Just an Accident in Non-English Language Film. The Secret Agent got that one too as it Oscar BP fortunes are looking sturdier.

Overall I went 11/15 as I also was correct selecting KPop Demon Hunters in Animated Film and Original Song (“Golden”).

My biggest post-GG takeaway is that One Battle After Another is still looking like an Academy juggernaut while Sinners hit a significant bump. It is a legit conversation as to whether Hamnet or Sinners is the biggest potential spoiler to a Battle crowning. Honestly it probably won’t matter.

Keep an eye on my blog as I’m about to do an Oscar predictions update!

83rd Golden Globe Awards Winner Predictions

The 83rd edition of the Golden Globes Awards airs Sunday with Nikki Glaser returning for hosting duties. The Globes have a sometimes spotty history matching with Oscar and it’s a little trickier to make Academy correlations due to the Globes splitting the Picture and lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy.

That said, it would be a surprise if One Battle After Another (extremely like) and Sinners (not guaranteed) didn’t emerge victorious in their respective BP derbies. As for the acting races… that could get interesting. Let’s walk through each category with a winner and runner-up prediction and some analysis.

I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with my thoughts and how I performed.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

I would not be surprised if the Globe voters go with Hamnet, but I’ll project a Battle/Sinners narrative stays intact at the Oscars with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale picking up the gold.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Blue Moon, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, One Battle After Another

Let’s not overcomplicate this one. Battle is the heavy favorite and anything else would be a shocker.

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Marty Supreme (? – I guess)

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Jafar Pahani (It Was Just an Accident), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

As with the Critics Choice Awards, I’m going with PTA over Coogler with a remote shot of a Panahi upset.

WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Actress – Drama

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)

Another easy one to call with Buckley potentially on her way to a seasonal sweep.

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Best Actor – Drama

Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere)

It’s highly unlikely any of the nominees here will win the Oscar and probably one or two (or at best three) will make the Academy quintet. I’m going with a slight upset as most are going with Moura. I think Sinners love could prevail.

WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Runner-Up: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Best Actress – Musical or Comedy

Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

Byrne is the favorite and I’m going with her though I have a nagging feeling there could be an upset and it could be Hudson, Infiniti, or Stone.

WINNER: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Bugonia

Best Actor – Musical or Comedy

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

This is where the potential Oscar recipients reside this time around (unlike in 2025) and I’ll say Chalamet reigns supreme with DiCaprio and Hawke as spoilers.

WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

We will get a big clue as to whether Madigan is a potential sweeper or if Taylor or someone else become the main competition. I’ll say Aunt Gladys’s momentum continues.

WINNER: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

An intriguing race as Elordi shocked all with the CCA win and is certainly a factor now. There’s also the strong possibility of one of the Battle boys getting this. I wouldn’t even discount a Mescal upset. I am (with reservations) going with Skarsgård as Value needs a boost.

WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Best Screenplay

Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

Probably another Battle/Sinners showdown with the former more likely.

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Non-English Language Motion Picture

It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

Agent and Value are MAJOR threats though I’m going Accident.

WINNER: It Was Just an Accident

Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

Best Animated Motion Picture

Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

Zoo 2 could threaten but KPop juggernaut should roll.

WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

Best Original Score

F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

Sinners is the definite frontrunner with Battle as a possibility.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Song

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

Another Sinners has a chance though KPop should be… well, golden,

WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, KPop Demon Hunter, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Weapons, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2

Sinners should take this silly little category in its third silly little year of existence.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Is there one? Maybe KPop?

And that means I have these movies winning these numbers of Golden Globes:

4 Wins

Sinners

3 Wins

One Battle After Another

2 Wins

KPop Demon Hunters

1 Win

Hamnet, If I Has Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Weapons

31st Critics Choice Awards Reaction

The 31st Critics Choice Awards aired tonight and it’s the first major awards show of the season with the Golden Globes up in one week. Obviously CCA could offer the first clues as to what will follow with the Oscars as the grand finale.

In what was seen as a Warner Bros showdown between One Battle After Another and Sinners for Best Picture, it was Battle that prevailed as I predicted. Yet it was Sinners and (unexpectedly) Frankenstein that tied for the most victories at four apiece.

I went 17/23 in my predictions which I’ll take in a night that gave us a couple of legit surprises. Besides BP, Battle took Director (Paul Thomas Anderson) and Adapted Screenplay (also PTA) for three trophies. It solidifies the pic as the frontrunner at the Oscars.

Sinners emerged victorious in Original Screenplay, Young Actor/Actress (Miles Caton), Score, and Casting and Ensemble (where I had Battle projected).

The lead acting categories went as planned with Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) in Actress and Timothée Chalamet as Marty Supreme in Actor. You can expect to see both make more podium walks in the coming weeks.

I correctly called Amy Madigan as Supporting Actress for the already iconic Aunt Gladys in Weapons. It will be interesting to see if she racks up more wins as the season goes along.

The acting derby that was a genuine shocker was Supporting Actor where Jacob Elordi took the prize for Frankenstein. I had Benicio Del Toro (Battle). Truth be told, I would’ve slotted Elordi fifth or sixth as far as win possibility and have had him in and out of my quintet at the Oscars. We’ll see if this is a one-off, but this definitely increases his visibility in forthcoming ceremonies. I did correctly project Guillermo del Toro’s monster tale in Costume Design, Hair & Makeup, and Production Design.

Here’s where else I got it right – The Naked Gun as Best Comedy, KPop Demon Hunters for Animated Feature and Song (“Golden”), Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning for Stunt Design, and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Visual Effects.

Where I went wrong – F1 picked up two CCA’s in Editing and Sound. I respectively went with Battle and Sinners. Train Dreams is the Cinematography victor over Battle.

Finally, The Secret Agent is the 2nd biggest surprise (after Elordi) as Best Foreign Language Film where I had It Was Just an Accident predicted and No Other Choice as runner-up.

The Golden Globes are a week away. I will have winner predictions up on the blog on Wednesday!

All in all, these movies generated these numbers of victories:

4 Wins

Frankenstein, Sinners

3 Wins

One Battle After Another

2 Wins

F1, KPop Demon Hunters

1 Win

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams, Weapons

98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 11th Edition

There’s been a whole lotta precursor developments since my last Oscar predictions update on November 23rd. Critics groups are weighing in with their best-of choices, the review embargo for Marty Supreme lifted while the social embargo lapsed for the upcoming Avatar: Fire and Ash. Most importantly, the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe voters revealed their nominees along with the National Board of Review (NBR) and American Film Institute (AFI).

One thing seems certain in that One Battle After Another is the easy frontrunner for Best Picture. Is it a guaranteed victory? No, but it would have to encounter some bumps in the road for the narrative to change. That’s yet to happen.

At this juncture, I also think Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners are safe choices for BP inclusion. That leaves several pics vying for three slots. Will either of the big-budget sequels (Avatar: Fire and Ash, Wicked: For Good) make it? Can Jay Kelly recover after a noticeable Globes omission or is Train Dreams the other Netflix nominee along with Frankenstein? Will The Secret Agent make it three international contenders in the ten? Or could No Other Choice make it four? Or do Bugonia (which has been doing well in precursors) or The Testament of Ann Lee (which has been struggling in precursors) make the cut?

My mid-December snapshot of prognostication answers those questions… for now. The Secret Agent and Bugonia are now in my top 10 with the mega-sequels Wicked and Avatar falling out. I, perhaps stubbornly, am sticking with Jay Kelly in the lineup. I came very close to replacing it with Train Dreams.

In Best Actress, Cynthia Erivo’s work in Wicked drops in favor of Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You). In Actor, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) rises with George Clooney as Jay Kelly falling out of the contending quintet (even with the latter’s movie clinging to a BP nom). In Supporting Actor, Benicio del Toro jumps from 6th to 2nd and over his Battle costar Sean Penn. I still have both getting in with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) now on the outside looking in. Director and Supporting Actress remain the same with some movement in the rankings.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-3)

14. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out

Clint Bentley, Train Dreams

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

7. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Is This Thing On?

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hedda (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nuremberg (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sirât (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Belén (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Lost in Starlight

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Seeds (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Orwell 2 +2 = 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Deaf President Now!

Cutting Through Rocks

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rental Family

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)

9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. F1 (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Weapons (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 6) (-2)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

Wicked: For Good

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Bugonia

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Warfare (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. F1 (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (E)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (-1)

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

12 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Marty Supreme

8 Nominations

Frankenstein

7 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions: Ella McCay

When your movie is opening December 12th and the review embargo lifts December 10th, consider that a sign that the studio (20th Century in this instance) doesn’t consider it an awards contender. Such is the case with Ella McCay which marks the first feature from James L. Brooks in 15 years. The 2008 set political dramedy stars Emma Mackey in the title role with a supporting cast including Jamie Lee Curtis, Jack Lowden, Kumail Nanjiani, Ayo Edebiri, Julie Kavner, Spike Fearn, Rebecca Hall, Albert Brooks, and Woody Harrelson.

Brooks is, of course, a legendary figure in TV and motion pictures. In addition to co-creating The Mary Tyler Moore Show, Taxi, and The Simpsons, his cinematic debut as writer/director Terms of Endearment is 1983’s Best Picture winner. Subsequent efforts Broadcast News (1988) and As Good As It Gets (1997) also scored BP mentions and numerous other nods.

The auteur’s output in the 21st century has been limited to Spanglish (2004) and How Do You Know (2010), neither of which were Oscar players. McKay is saddled with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 29% and 41 on Metacritic. That’s why it’s no surprise it didn’t show up anywhere in the Critics Choice or Golden Globe ballots and the same will hold true with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

83rd Golden Globe Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards were unveiled this morning with some surprises and other categories generally going as planned. As expected and as I projected, One Battle After Another (the unquestionable Oscar frontrunner for Best Picture) led the nominations count with 9 followed by Sentimental Value with 8, Sinners with 7, and Hamnet with 6. All of those pics have likely punched their Academy BP ticket.

While it was a good day for them, you can’t say the same for Wicked: For Good, Jay Kelly, and some others. Overall I went 78 for 92 in my predictions (about par for the course). Let’s walk through each category with the nominees and how I did with some quick commentary.

Motion Picture – Drama

Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

The expected six with an international flavor as three of the nominees are surefire hopefuls for Best International Feature at the Oscars (Accident, Agent, Value). The winner, however, should come down to Hamnet or Sinners.

Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Blue Moon, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, One Battle After Another

How I Did: 3/6

First things first – Battle is likely going to emerge victorious. As far as the contenders, Jay Kelly missing was a legit shocker and the same could be said for Wicked: For Good. I had them in along with The Testament of Ann Lee instead of Choice and the one-two directorial combo of Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague from Richard Linklater.

Director

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 5/6

Mr. del Toro makes the sextet instead of Josh Safdie, whose Marty Supreme had a less than anticipated showing with 3 nods. Anderson is the favorite though I wouldn’t discount Coogler or Panahi.

Actress – Drama

Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)

How I Did: 5/6

Victor is in over my somewhat upset pick of Jodie Foster in A Private Life. This is one of the easiest to predict with Buckley.

Actor – Drama

Nominees: Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Not as easy to predict as Actress (Drama) with the Oscar heavy hitters in Actor slotted in Musical or Comedy. This could be a close one between Jordan and Moura.

Actress – Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

The expected six, but this is a tough one to call. Precursors may help with my eventual prediction though I’d say everyone but Hudson at least has a chance here. Byrne is perhaps the soft frontrunner.

Actor – Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

My alternate Byung-hun over Brendan Fraser (Rental Family). Like the Oscars, this could be a supreme battle between Chalamet and DiCaprio with Hawke as potential spoiler.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

How I Did: 5/6

Blunt is one of the genuine shockers as she’s in instead of Supreme‘s Gwyneth Paltrow. This is a tricky category to pinpoint and we’re going to need precursors to help sort it out.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

This seems like a race where Value could pick up a trophy with Skarsgård, but both Battle actors are viable.

Best Screenplay

Nominees: Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Another competition where Value is possible though Battle and Sinners might have the edge in that order. I wouldn’t rule out Accident either.

Motion Picture – Non-English Language

Nominees: It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirât, The Voice of Hind Rajab

How I Did: 5/6

Rajab gets the call over Sound of Falling as Value could have the best shot, but Accident is a real threat as is Agent.

Motion Picture – Animated

Nominees: Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 5/6

Demon Slayer instead of Ne Zha 2 (which I also incorrectly predicted for Critics Choice). The voters could go with phenom KPop though Rain and Zootopia are in the hunt.

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, KPop Demon Hunters, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Weapons, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 7/8

This silly little three-year-old category is something the Globes should jettison. After all, Avatar hasn’t even opened and it’s being nominated for its box office achievement? Perhaps Sinners, a truly unanticipated smash hit, takes this. I had Superman up instead of Reckoning.

Original Score

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât

How I Did: 4/6

F1 (which also got a CCA mention) and Sirât contend over my picks of Bugonia and Marty Supreme. I think Sinners is out front with OBAA threatening.

Original Song

Nominees: “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams; “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/6

Well, at least Wicked got two songs nominated, eh? “No Place Like Home” and “Train Dreams” are balloted instead of “Drive” from F1 and “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners. “Golden” could be just that on Globes night.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, adds up to these movies generating numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

One Battle After Another

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Sinners

6 Nominations

Hamnet

5 Nominations

Frankenstein, Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Bugonia, KPop Demon Hunters, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, F1, Jay Kelly, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Train Dreams, Weapons, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

After the Hunt, Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Die, My Love, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Nouvelle Vague, Song Sung Blue, Sorry, Baby, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab

I”ll have predictions up for the show shortly before the January 11th telecast and keep an eye on the blog for updated Oscar projections!

83rd Golden Globe Awards Nomination Predictions

Nominations for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards are out Monday prior to the January 11th ceremony hosted by Nikki Glaser. The highest profile Oscar precursor divides its six nominees for Picture and the lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy designations. Between the 12 hopefuls for BP in those categories in 2024, it showcased 9 of the 10 eventual Academy BP contenders (the one exception being I’m Still Here). All five Best Actor Oscar nominees could be found among the six in the Drama race for the Globes (that will not be the case this year as heavyweights like Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio are in Musical/Comedy). It was a different story for Best Actress as four of the eventual Oscar players were found in Musical/Comedy with Drama victor Fernanda Torres (from I’m Still Here) rounding out the Academy quintet. You could find the five Supporting Actor nominees at the 97th Academy Awards in the Globe six and four of the Oscar Supporting Actresses (the exception being Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown).

In other words, it is smart to include the vast majority of movies and actors that you believe will be honored by the Academy into your Globe forecast if the math works. Two observations – this is where it would be helpful for Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident to have a strong showing after a disappointing one at the Critics’ Choice Awards noms. I’m predicting that it will. This is also where Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery could rebound after being blanked by CCA. I’m predicting that it won’t.

Let’s walk through eace race with my picks and an alternate!

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Frankenstein

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – Train Dreams

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Bugonia

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Testament of Ann Lee

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – No Other Choice

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Alternate – Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Jodie Foster, A Private Life

Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Alternate – Laura Dern, Is This Thing On?

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Alternate – Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Rose Byrne, If I I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alternate – Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Brendan Fraser, Rental Family

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Alternate – Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Alternate – Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Alternate – Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Best Film Screenplay

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – The Secret Agent

Best Non-English Language Film

It Was Just an Accident

No Other Choice

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sirât

Sound of Falling

Alternate – The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Animated Feature

Arco

Elio

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Ne Zha 2

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Scarlet

Best Original Score

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – Jay Kelly

Best Original Song

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

“Drive” from F1

“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

“I Lied to You” from Sinners

“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners

“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

Alternate – “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

KPop Demon Hunters

Sinners

Superman

Weapons

Wicked: For Good

Zootopia 2

Alternate – A Minecraft Movie

That works out to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

One Battle After Another

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value, Sinners

6 Nominations

Hamnet, Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Jay Kelly, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, The Testament of Ann Lee, Weapons, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

After the Hunt, A Private Life, Arco, Blue Moon, Die, My Love, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Ne Zha 2, No Other Choice, Rental Family, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, Sound of Falling, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, Train Dreams

Oscar Predictions: Fackham Hall

The laughs in Fackham Hall starts with the title (say it out loud… it won’t take you long). With a screenplay whose co-writers include comedian Jimmy Carr, Jim O’Hanlon directs the British spoof that primarily sends up Downton Abbey. The cast includes Damian Lewis, Thomasin McKenzie, Ben Radcliffe, Katherine Waterston, and Tom Felton.

Distributor Bleecker Street is putting Hall out this weekend domestically with the U.K. release on December 12th. Reviews are saying it mostly succeeds with 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 69 Metacritic. No, this is not an Oscar contender (shocker), but there are comedy specific categories at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. It probably wouldn’t play at those ceremonies either and it is likely arriving too late in the calendar anyway for voters to notice it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…