Tag: Godzilla Minus One

2023 Oscar Predictions: December 29th Edition

My final Oscar predictions for calendar year 2023 sees changes in Picture, Actress, and Actor. Anatomy of a Fall is back in the BP ten with The Color Purple falling out (despite its impressive box office bow on Christmas Day). That said – it’s a coin flip.

In Actress, I’ve elevated Greta Lee (Past Lives) once again at the expense of Margot Robbie’s Barbie. Same goes for Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) in Actor with Colman Domingo’s Rustin out of the projected contending quintet.

I’ll also note that 20 Days in Mariupol is now first in Documentary Feature over longtime first place forecasted Beyond Utopia.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)

9. American Fiction (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-1)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Air (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (-3)

10. J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)

7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)

8. Godland (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Peasants (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wish (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Suzume (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Robot Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (E)

5. American Symphony (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. El Conde (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonka (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chevalier (PR: 9) (E)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Priscilla

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Air (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Past Lives (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Golda (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ferrari (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wonka (PR: 10) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Killer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)

9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)

10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

12 Nominations

Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

9 Nominations

Barbie

6 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, May December, Past Lives, Society of the Snow

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Air, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge

2023 Oscars Shortlists Reaction

The Oscar shortlists for the 96th Academy Awards were revealed today for seven feature length categories. We now know the ten finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects and the 15 hopefuls for Original Score, Original Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature.

Per usual, there were surprises (though I’d say no complete jaw droppers). In Song, three films make up a third of the contenders (Hi Barbie!). Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One and Napoleon did about the best they could do while others like Nyad, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, and Past Lives missed key races where they were expected to contend for nominations.

Overall I went 63 for 90 in my forecasts. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and my new top tens for where I believe things stand in the various competitions!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Shortlist: Beau is Afraid, Ferrari, Golda, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Last Voyage of the Demeter, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

How I Did: 6/10

Perhaps the biggest unexpected snub was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 missing here (its two predecessors were respectively nominated and shortlisted). I also had Barbie (Bye Barbie!), Nyad, and Priscilla in the mix. In their places are Beau Is Afraid, Ferrari, The Last Voyage of the Demeter (didn’t see that coming), and Society of the Snow. This is probably Maestro‘s race to lose.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

1. Maestro (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Golda (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Nyad

The Color Purple

Wonka

Best Sound

Shortlist: Barbie, The Creator, Ferrari, The Killer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 8/10

Oppenheimer is clearly the leader. I felt like if Zone made the cut, its chances to make the final quintet are solid. The Creator and Mission: Impossible are listed over my picks of The Color Purple and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ferrari (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Killer (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Color Purple

Society of the Snow

Best Visual Effects

Shortlist: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things, Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 8/10

Mission and Napoleon get in over my picks of Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves and Killers of the Flower Moon. This race is, frankly, a crapshoot ever since we found out Oppenheimer wouldn’t contend. With the Guardians omission in Makeup & Hairstyling, I feel compelled to remove it from 1st place here (though it still be the MCU’s first winner). The Creator? Godzilla? Perhaps. For now I’m rolling with Poor Things atop the leaderboard, but this is a toughie.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS:

1. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+2)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Best Original Score

Shortlist: American Fiction, American Symphony, Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, The Color Purple, Elemental, The Holdovers, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 10/15

Some rather unexpected snubs including Nyad and Past Lives. I also had Carmen, Ferrari, and The Killer up for contention. In their places are American Fiction, American Symphony, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, and Saltburn. Like in Sound, the chances of Oppenheimer being victorious are decent.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Elemental (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (E)

10. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Past Lives

Best Original Song

Shortlist: “Am I Dreaming” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse; “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes; “Dance the Night” from Barbie; “Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City; “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “High Life” from Flora and Son; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple; “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son; “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives; “Road to Freedom” from Rustin; “Superpower” from The Color Purple; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

How I Did: 10/15

Those three movies making up a third of the hopefuls are Barbie, Flora and Son, and The Color Purple. I incorrectly had both Flora tunes and “Superpower” from Purple out. Same goes for “Am I Dreaming” and “Can’t Catch Me Now”. The quintet that I incorrectly had in were “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (surprised it missed after the Globes nom), “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me (Bye Bruce Springsteen), “For the First Time” from The Little Mermaid, and “This Wish” from Wish (which I had in my top five days ago). It’s key to remember that only two tracks from a picture can make this race. That’s why I have “Dance the Night” outside the top ten since I’m confident “What Was I Made For?” and “I’m Just Ken” are in.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Droppe Out:

“This Wish” from Wish

“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

“It’s Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady

“A World of Your Own” from Wonka

Best International Feature Film

Shortlist: Amerikatsi (Armenia), Fallen Leaves (Finland), Four Daughters (Tunisia), Godland (Iceland), Io Capitano (Italy), The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan), The Mother of All Lies (Morocco), Perfect Days (Japan), The Promised Land (Denmark), Society of the Snow (Spain), The Taste of Things (France), The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany), Tótem (Mexico), 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine), The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

How I Did: 12/15

Documentaries The Mother of All Lies and Four Daughters are in as well as Amerikatsi. I had About Dry Grasses, The Peasants, and The Settlers. By the way, the miss for The Peasants may not bode well for its Animated Feature chances (where I’ve had it getting nominated). Barring an upset, this is The Zone of Interest‘s category to lose (though an upset isn’t totally out of the question).

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Perfect Days (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tótem (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Godland (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

About Dry Grasses

The Promised Land

Best Documentary Feature

Shortlist: American Symphony, Apolonia, Apolonia, Beyond Utopia, Bobi Wire: The People’s President, Desperate Souls, Dark City, and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, In the Rearview, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, A Still Small Voice, 32 Sounds, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

How I Did: 9/15

There’s always unforeseen developments in the Doc derby. My picks of The Deepest Breath, Kokomo City, The Mission, The Mother of All Lies (despite the IFF nod), Orlando, My Political Biography, and The Pigeon Tunnel fell in favor of Desperate Souls, Dark City, and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, In the Rearview, A Still Small Voice, 32 Sounds, and To Kill a Tiger. I’d say Beyond Utopia is still the slight favorite, but I’m very curious to see what certain precursors do.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (E)

5. American Symphony (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Still Small Voice (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Mother of All Lies

The Deepest Breath

Every Body

Keep an eye on the blog for all speculation as we inch closer to Oscar nomination morning!

2023 Oscars Shortlist Predictions

Seven pieces of the Oscar speculation puzzle become clearer tomorrow when shortlists are submitted in various feature length races. We will learn the final 15 contenders in International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score, and Original Song. Additionally, the 10 finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects will be revealed.

With history as our guide, I can reveal there will likely be surprises. There’s usually an out of nowhere song or doc or Makeup & Hairstyling hopeful that emerges.

I’ll have a post up tomorrow with my quick take on my picks and analysis. Here is my forecast for those seven shortlists with an alternate selection in each!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Shortlist (10):

Barbie

Golda

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Napoleon

Nyad

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Priscilla

Alternate: The Color Purple

Best Sound

Predicted Shortlist (10):

Barbie

The Color Purple

Ferrari

The Killer

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: The Creator

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Shortlist (10):

The Creator

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Killers of the Flower Moon

Poor Things

Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire

Society of the Snow

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Barbie

Best Original Score

Predicted Shortlist (15):

Barbie

The Boy and the Heron

Carmen

Elemental

Ferrari

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

The Killer

Killers of the Flower Moon

Nyad

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Society of the Snow

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Origin

Best Original Song

Predicted Shortlist (15):

“Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me

“Camp Isn’t Home” from Theater Camp

“Dance the Night” from Barbie

“Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot

“For the First Time” from The Little Mermaid

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony

“Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple

“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

“Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives

“Road to Freedom” from Rustin

“This Wish” from Wish

“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Alternate: “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Shortlist (15):

20 Days in Mariupol

About Dry Grasses

Fallen Leaves

Godland

Io Capitano

The Monk and the Gun

The Peasants

Perfect Days

The Promised Land

The Settlers

Society of the Snow

The Taste of Things

The Teachers’ Lounge

Tótem

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Concrete Utopia

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Shortlist (15):

20 Days in Mariupol

American Symphony

Apolonia, Apolonia

Beyond Utopia

Bobi Wine: The People’s President

The Deepest Breath

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

Kokomo City

The Mission

The Mother of All Lies

Orlando, My Political Biography

The Pigeon Tunnel

Stamped from the Beginning

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

Alternate: Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros

December 22-25 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (12/21): I am increasing my The Color Purple one-day projection from $7.9M to $12.9M

With Christmas falling on a Monday this year, this is one of the most jam packed Yuletide box office seasons in memory. There’s a whole bunch of cinematic gifts that studios hope open well. On Friday (December 22), Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom looks to top the charts and reverse the misfortunes of the DCU in 2023. Joining Aquaman for the long weekend are Illumination Entertainment’s animated Migration, wrestling biopic The Iron Claw with Zac Efron, Indian Telugu-language action epic Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire, Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell’s rom com Anyone but You, and the nationwide expansion of Oscar hopeful Poor Things with Emma Stone. On Christmas Day, they are joined by The Color Purple (adapting the Broadway musical which adapted the 1985 Spielberg pic which adapted the acclaimed novel), Michael Mann’s Ferrari with Adam Driver, and the George Clooney directed Olympic period piece The Boys in the Boat. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all nine (yes, nine) right here:

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Box Office Prediction
Migration Box Office Prediction
The Iron Claw Box Office Prediction
Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire Box Office Prediction
Anyone but You Box Office Prediction
Poor Things Box Office Prediction
The Color Purple Box Office Prediction
Ferrari Box Office Prediction
The Boys in the Boat Box Office Prediction

Even Aquaman himself, Jason Momoa, recently stated in an interview that the future of the franchise is murky at best. Despite the 2018 original making over a billion bucks worldwide, expectations for the sequel are underwater after the DCU’s year that included flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. The worst case scenario is that this opens second to Wonka. On the bright side: Warner Bros gets the #1 slot either way. A low to mid 40s beginning from Friday to Monday is nothing to brag about, but that should get it to first place.

Wonka got off to a pretty sweet start at the top of its anticipated range (more on that below). Since I’m doing predictions from December 22-25, it may only decline from the high 30s to the mid to high 20s with bright weekends ahead (especially over New Year’s).

Therefore Wonka might be the family choice over Christmas and that could put Migration in third with a high teens or low 20s output. For Illumination, the silver lining should be small declines in subsequent frames.

I’m expecting a fourth place finish for The Iron Claw as wrestling fans could turn out to the tune of high single digits.

As for the three features out on Christmas Day, this obviously means I’m only doing a one-day projection. The Color Purple, with its well-known source material, should do best among that trio and I have its single day managing a fifth place showing.

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire could over perform, but I have it in ninth. The newcomers should dominate the top ten as I have Anyone but You in sixth with the Poor Things expansion in seventh.

I do have holdovers The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and Trolls Band Together finishing out the top ten.

That means my single day estimates for Ferrari ($2.1 million) and The Boys in the Boat ($1.1 million) leave them outside the top ten.

Truth be told, this is a highly unpredictable Christmas weekend with lots of moving parts. Here’s my best attempt at that top 10 and keep in mind that this is for Friday-Monday:

1. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $42.8 million

2. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $31.4 million

3. Migration

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

4. The Color Purple

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

5. The Iron Claw

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

6. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

7. Poor Things

Predicted Gross: $5 million

8. Salaar: Part One – Ceasefire

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

9. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

10. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (December 15-17)

Warner Bros might face choppy waters ahead with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, but the Wonka opening went swimmingly. Timothee Chalamet’s take on the iconic chocolatier was treated to a $39 million start. That’s slightly ahead of my $36.4 million prediction as the family pic should have a robust road ahead this season.

It was the only newcomer this past weekend (which makes sense considering the onslaught ahead). The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes stayed put in second with $5.8 million, a smidge under my $6.6 million call. The prequel is up to $145 million after five weekends.

The Boy and the Heron, after its better than anticipated bow, dropped from 1st to 3rd with $5.5 million. That’s lower than my $7 million forecast as the ten-day take is $23 million.

Godzilla Minus One was fourth with $5 million (I said $5.7 million) for $34 million after three weeks.

Trolls Band Together rounded out the top five with $3.9 million compared to my $4.6 million projection. The threequel is approaching nine figures after five weeks with $88 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…

2023 Oscar Predictions: December 17th Edition

My first post Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards nominations Oscar forecast doesn’t see any changes in Best Picture and I find myself stuck in the same conundrum. There are 11 films I believe will get nominated and ten spots. Until the Critics Choice nods, I thought The Color Purple might be dead in the water. However, its CCA inclusion keeps it in the mix after its surprise snub at the Globes. I still have it clinging to a nomination over Anatomy of a Fall.

In Best Actor, I’m putting Colman Domingo (Rustin) back in over Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Yet it’s a coin flip right now and I agree that Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon, currently my 4) could also find himself on the outside looking in.

Julianne Moore is in the Best Supporting Actress quintet for May December. It’s the first time she’s above the line and I’ve taken out Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) to make that room. Also in this race, there’s a new #1 as Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) just keeps collecting critics prize. She tops the list and drops my longtime #1 Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to second.

You can read all the movement below as I now have Oppenheimer, Killers, and Poor Things all receiving a dozen mentions with Barbie close behind at 11!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (E)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Iron Claw

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-3)

8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Penelope Cruz, Ferrari

Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+3)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fair Play

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Taste of Things (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (-2)

7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tótem (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Io Capitano (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

20 Days in Mariupol

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wish (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Peasants (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Suzume (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. American Symphony (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Every Body (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Orlando, My Political Biography

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. El Conde (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Killer (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wonka (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chevalier (PR: 9) (E)

10. Priscilla (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Air (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nyad (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Golda (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elemental (PR: 6) (E)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (E)

8. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-4)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “A World Of Your Own” from Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

“Dance the Night” from Barbie

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ferrari (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire

Killers of the Flower Moon

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

11 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro

6 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

3 Nominations

May December

2 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, The Mother of All Lies, Nimona, Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, Wonka

29th Critics’ Choice Awards Nomination Predictions

The Critics’ Choice Awards are one of the more reliable precursors when it comes to movies and actors who might receive Oscar nominations. Hopefuls will hear their names called tomorrow for the 29th annual ceremony.

This show can sometimes be unpredictable with how many nominees there will be in each race. Last year there were 11 in Picture, 10 in Director, and 6 for others. I’ll project 10 in Pic and Director and go with six in the remainder of the derbies (and an alternate), but don’t be surprised if they alter the formula.

Let’s get to it!

Picture

American Fiction

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

May December

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: The Color Purple

Director

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Todd Haynes, May December

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Alternate: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Actress

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate: Natalie Portman, May December

Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Alternate: Colman Domingo, Rustin

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Penelope Cruz, Ferrari

Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Julianne Moore, May December

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate: Jodie Foster, Nyad

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Alternate: John Magaro, Past Lives

Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

May December

Past Lives

Saltburn

Alternate: Maestro

Adapted Screenplay

All of Us Strangers

American Fiction

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Foreign Language Film

Anatomy of a Fall

Monster

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Taste of Things

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Fallen Leaves

Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Alternate: Wish

Cinematography

The Killer

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Saltburn

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Costume Design

Barbie

Chevalier

The Color Purple

Killers of the Flower Moon

Poor Things

Priscilla

Alternate: Oppenheimer

Editing

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Alternate: The Holdovers

Makeup

Barbie

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Maestro

Nyad

Poor Things

Society of the Snow

Alternate: Oppenheimer

Production Design

Asteroid City

Barbie

The Color Purple

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: Maestro

Score

Elemental

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: The Boy and the Heron

Song

“Dance the Night” from Barbie

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

“Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives

“Road to Freedom” from Rustin

“This Wish” from Wish

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Visual Effects

The Creator

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: Napoleon

Ensemble

Air

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Saltburn

Alternate: The Color Purple

Comedy

American Fiction

Asteroid City

Barbie

Joy Ride

The Holdovers

No Hard Feelings

Alternate: Bottoms

Young Actor/Actress

Joe Bird, Talk to Me

Andrew Barth Feldman, No Hard Feelings

Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Ariana Greenblatt, Barbie

Milo Machado-Graner, Anatomy of a Fall

Violet McGraw, M3GAN

Alternate: Iman Vellani, The Marvels

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Barbie, Poor Things

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

7 Nominations

Maestro, Past Lives

6 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers

5 Nominations

May December

4 Nominations

American Fiction, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

3 Nominations

The Color Purple, Saltburn

2 Nominations

All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Asteroid City, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, No Hard Feelings, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

1 Nomination

Air, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Ferrari, Godzilla Minus One, Joy Ride, The Killer, M3GAN, Monster, Nimona, Nyad, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Talk to Me, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish

December 15-17 Box Office Predictions

The iconic chocolatier, this time played by Timothee Chalamet, looks to dominate the box office as Wonka opens this weekend. It is the only new wide release coming our way before a slew of Christmas offerings arrive. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Wonka Box Office Prediction

My mid 30s projection easily gives it the #1 spot as it hopes to leg out splendidly throughout the holiday season. It should manage to do so with the known IP and mostly positive critical reaction. Kiddos and their parents should eat this up as the season moves along.

The rest of the top five should be filled with leftovers. After a strong start (more on that below), The Boy and the Heron should slide to second. It might have the largest drop of the returnees (possibly close to 50%), but then again I thought Godzilla Minus One would have a considerably heftier sophomore dip.

I have The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes in third with the aforementioned Godzilla in fourth and Trolls Band Together rounding out the high five. Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $36.4 million

2. The Boy and the Heron

Predicted Gross: $7 million

3. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

4. Godzilla Minus One

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (December 8-10)

Legendary Japanese animator Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron flew to the top spot with an impressive $12.9 million. This soars past my $8 million projection and should become the director’s highest grosser stateside in short order.

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes held in second with $9.2 million, just ahead of my $8.6 million take. The four-week total is $135 million.

Godzilla Minus One had a strong hold, down just 25% in third with $8.5 million. I figured it would fall a lot more and forecasted the green giant at $4.9 million. The ten-day tally is $25 million.

Trolls Band Together was fourth with $6 million (I said $4.7 million) as the animated threequel sits at $82 million after four frames.

Finally, last weekend’s champ Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé plummeted 75% to fifth with $5.4 million. I was more kind at $7.6 million. Total is $28 million for the concert flick.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

2023 Oscar Predictions: December 10th Edition

My first Oscar predictions for the month of December comes on the eve of Golden Globe nominations and days after NBR and AFI revealed their best of for 2023.

There is a change in BP as American Fiction is back in with Anatomy of a Fall out. In Best Actress, Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) reaches the #1 spot. She overtakes Emma Stone in Poor Things who has held the position for several weeks. Gladstone’s rise happens as her costars Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro slip a little in their categories. Also in Best Actress, Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to the quintet at the expense of Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple. In Actor, Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) is in over Colman Domingo (Rustin).

Another development worthy of discussion is Visual Effects. Earlier this week, the top 20 hopefuls were announced and Oppenheimer was nowhere to be found. I’d previously had it ranked #1 in the race, but it drops from contention.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)

9. American Fiction (PR: 11) (+2)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)

Other Possibilities:

11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (-1)

12. May December (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-1)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)

15. Air (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All of Us Strangers

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-3)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Viola Davis, Air

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4 (E)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colman Domingo, The Color Purple

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rustin

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-1)

7. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 10) (+3)

8. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tótem (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feautre

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Peasants (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wish (PR: 7) (E)

8. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 8) (E)

9. Suzume (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3 The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Four Daughters (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

9. American Symphony (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Every Body

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Barbie

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Maestro (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Killer (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Air (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nyad (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Priscilla

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elemental (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-5)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (-3)

7. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Joan Still” from Theater Camp

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wonka (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ferrari (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Killer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Godzilla Minus One (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Oppenheimer

Society of the Snow

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro

6 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest

5 Nominations

The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Past Lives

2 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Nimona, Nyad, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish

December 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (12/06): It appears The Boy and the Heron is opening on approximately 2100 screens. That is more than I assumed and my estimate rises from $3.8 million to $8 million. I’m also lowering my Renaissance prediction from $8.9M to $7.6M and raising my Hunger Games estimates from $7.8M to $8.6M. This dramatically alters my previous top five.

Before some high profile holiday releases are unwrapped, it should be a quiet weekend at the box office as Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron is the only significant newcomer. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Boy and the Heron Box Office Prediction

We may not see any picture top $10 million in this sleepy frame. Beyoncé may manage to rule the charts for a second time even though I have Renaissance having a sophomore slide in the high 50s. A gross approaching $9 million should keep it ahead of The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (which should fall in the mid 40s).

After an impressive debut, Godzilla Minus One should stay in third with Trolls Band Together remaining in fourth. I have Heron rounding out the top five, just ahead of Disney’s dud Wish.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

2. The Boy and the Heron

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

4. Godzilla Minus One

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

Box Office Results (December 1-3)

Audiences might not have been crazy in love with Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé to the level of Taylor Swift’s tour feature, but it opened in line with its anticipated range. Premiering in first, the acclaimed concert pic started with $21.8 million. That’s on pace with my $20.7 million take.

The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes slid to second with $14.1 million in its third outing, just ahead of my $13.1 million call. The franchise prequel is up to $120 million.

In a weekend with many debuts, Godzilla Minus One achieved the largest one at $11.4 million. The Japanese was third with $11.4 million, well ahead of my $7.6 million projection. This is especially impressive since it’s making most of its green overseas.

Trolls Band Together was fourth with $7.8 million (I said $8.5 million) as the three-week total is $75 million.

Disney’s Wish tumbled a steep 61% for fifth in its sophomore frame with $7.7 million. I was more generous at $9.3 million. The two-week tally is a troubling $42 million.

The second weekend plummet was even higher for Napoleon in sixth. It was down 65% to $7.2 million compared to my $9.2 million forecast. The overall gross is $45 million.

Newcomers filled the 7-9 spots. Hindi-language action flick Animal exceeded my expectations in seventh with $6.4 million. I said $4 million.

Sci-fi tale The Shift from Angel Studios was eighth with $4.6 million. That’s in line with my expectations at $4.3 million.

John Woo’s Silent Night was quiet in ninth with $3 million. That’s below my expectations as I went with $5 million.

Lastly, Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving was tenth with $2.6 million, a tad under my $3.3 million prediction. Total is $28 million.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

December 1-3 Box Office Predictions

November closed out at the box office with an unpredictable Thanksgiving frame where I had the entirety of the top four in the wrong spots. The head scratching will continue as December arrives with a quintet of newcomers (four of which could post very similar earnings). We have the concert pic Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé, Japanese monster mash Godzilla Minus One, John Woo’s dialogue free action thriller Silent Night, sci-fi drama The Shift from Angel Studios, and Hindi-language shoot-em-up Animal. My detailed prediction posts on all of them can be accessed here:

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Box Office Prediction
Godzilla Minus One Box Office Prediction
Silent Night Box Office Prediction
The Shift Box Office Prediction
Animal Box Office Prediction

Beyoncé’s tour doc might be the only new entry in the top five. While it shouldn’t approach the near $100M out of the gate that Taylor Swift accomplished, a mid to high 20s output would firmly put it in first position.

It is common to see hefty drops after the Turkey Day weekend and that should apply to the leftovers. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (after surprisingly staying at #1 over the holiday) should slide to second with a mid 50s decline.

After that… it’s a crapshoot. Any of the newcomers could post better figures than my calls. However, I have all four making between $5-8 million and each falling outside the top five.

That’s because Napoleon, Wish, and Trolls Band Together may all flirt with $10 million. I’ve got the trio falling under that for a close finish between 3-5.

With all the newbies, I’ll expand to a top ten outlook and here’s how I see it:

1. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

2. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

3. Wish

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

4. Napoleon

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

5. Trolls World Tour

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

6. Godzilla Minus One

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

7. Silent Night

Predicted Gross: $5 million

8. The Shift

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

9. Animal

Predicted Gross: $4 million

10. Thanksgiving

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (November 24-26)

In one of the most unexpected upsets in recent memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes had a far better than anticipated sophomore hold to rather easily take the holiday weekend. The franchise prequel eased a mere 35% for $29 million from Friday to Sunday, surpassing my $20.3 million projection with flying colors. The ten-day take is now $98 million.

Ridley Scott’s bio-epic Napoleon with Joaquin Phoenix was second as it slightly rose above forecasts. It made $20.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $32.7 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. That’s ahead of my respective $18.2 million and $28.5 million takes. With a weak B- Cinemascore grade, it may fade rather quickly.

After the massive flop that was The Marvels, the news didn’t get better for the Mouse House as the animated Wish was granted a tepid start in third. With ho-hum reviews, the Disney title fell far short of hopes with $19.6 million over the three-day and $31.6 million since Wednesday. I (along with most others) predicted a first place showing and had it at $32.2 million and $46.4 million. Ouch.

Trolls Band Together, in weekend two, was fourth with $17.8 million. I was more generous at $22.6 million and the DreamWorks Animated sequel has made $64 million after ten days.

Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving capitalized on that title with a fifth place slot and $7 million (I said $6.5 million). The ten-day tally is a respectable $24 million, especially since it comes with a low budget.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…