Best Picture 2023: The Final Five

As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

For the 96th Academy Awards, we know Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer would have been one of them. It dominated the show by winning Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less obvious. And I really mean it this time because, with one exception, selecting the others was tough. Here’s my best speculation.

American Fiction

Cord Jefferson’s dramedy performed better than anticipated with five nominations including a win in Adapted Screenplay over heavy hitters Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. Other nods were Jeffrey Wright in Actor, Sterling K. Brown for supporting, and Original Score.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying no. Gods and Monsters from 1998 is the last Adapted Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP so that’s what gives this a slight edge.

Anatomy of a Fall

The French legal drama was inexplicably not selected for International Feature Film, but nabbed a quintet of nods that included Director (Justine Triet), Actress (Sandra Hüller), Film Editing, and a victory in Original Screenplay (over The Holdovers and Past Lives).

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying yes. Like with Fiction, there’s a screenplay component at play. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind from 2004 was the previous Original Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP. In this case, the case for some other pics was just a tad stronger.

Barbie

Greta Gerwig’s smash hit had six other nods in Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, 2 Original Songs, and Production Design. The sole victory was for Billie Eilish’s ballad “What Was I Made For?”.

Does It Make the Final Five?

I went back and forth on this one… you get the idea. I’m going with no with its glaring omission for Gerwig’s direction and Margot Robbie’s snub to a lesser degree. That said, it is certainly feasible that AMPAS could’ve made room had this been a quintet.

The Holdovers

Alexander Payne’s dramedy was a winner in Supporting Actress for Da’Vine Joy Randolph with Paul Giamatti nominated in Actor and nods for Film Editing and Original Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. If Giamatti had taken lead actor or the screenplay been victorious, this would be a tougher choice. I think it’d be on the outside looking in.

Killers of the Flower Moon

Martin Scorsese’s historial epic had ten overall nominations behind Oppenheimer and Poor Things – directing, Actress (Lily Gladstone), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Production Design. It went 0 for 10 on the night.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, but I don’t think it’s automatic. No nods for the adapted screenplay or Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor make me questions its inclusion. So do the zero trophies. Yet Scorsese’s clout causes me to grant it a spot.

Maestro

Bradley Cooper’s biopic of Leonard Bernstein is a seven-time nominee for Actor (Cooper), Actress (Carey Mulligan), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Sound. It did not pick up any of the hardware.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but it did perform quite well as far as nods. Cooper’s exclusion from Best Director was my deciding factor.

Past Lives

Celine Song’s romance was the least nominated of the BP contestants with Original Screenplay as its only other nom.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No and this was the easiest of the five to decide considering the amount of nominations.

Poor Things

The multi-genre experience from Yorgos Lanthimos was second only to Oppenheimer in terms of mentions with 11 including wins for Emma Stone in Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. Other nods: director, Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes and this was the easiest of the nine to leave in due to its volume of noms and victories.

The Zone of Interest

The wartime drama from Jonathan Glazer, with Anatomy of a Fall out of competition, easily took International Feature Film while also grabbing a Sound win and noms for direction and Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

I don’t think it is automatic, but yes. I nudged it just past Fall considering the IFF gold.

And that means my final 2023 five would be:

American Fiction

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

I plan to post my selection for 2024 in the near future!

Oscar Predictions: Kiss of the Spider Woman

Bill Condon has directed Ian McKellen to an Oscar nod for 1998’s Gods and Monsters and Eddie Murphy to a nom and Jennifer Hudson to a victory for 2006’s Dreamgirls. The headlining trio for Kiss of the Spider Woman is hoping for the same.

This is the second cinematic version of the musical stage play and it has premiered at Sundance before a TBD release date later this year. The Argentinian set drama features Jennifer Lopez, Diego Luna, and Tonatiuh in the primary roles.

Early reaction is uneven with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and 55 on Metacritic. That’s different than some of the initial gushing social media reaction out of Park City. It begs the question of whether reviews are too mixed for it to be a Best Picture play and that is also TBD.

The cast, on the other hand, might stand stronger chances. This especially applies to Lopez and relative newcomer Tonatiuh (recently seen in Carry-On). One of the biggest surprises at the 92nd Academy Awards was J-Lo missing Supporting Actress for 2019’s Hustlers. Voters may look to rectify that snub here. As for Tonatiuh, the performer is inhabiting the same role that won William Hurt a Best Actor statue for Hector Babenco’s 1985’s first iteration. It will be interesting to see how category placement is determined by its eventual distributor as both could theoretically go lead or supporting.

Down-the-line competitions like Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design, and Sound could be on the table with a dedicated campaign. That’s something this is likely to receive. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Brendan Fraser in The Whale

As a morbidly obese English teacher attempting to reconnect with his daughter, Brendan Fraser’s performance in The Whale is next up in my Case Of posts.

The Case for Brendan Fraser:

After a three decade career with films as varied as Encino Man, George of the Jungle, Gods and Monsters, The Mummy, and Crash, Darren Aronofsky’s latest gave Fraser an acclaimed comeback narrative. Since the premiere in Venice, he’s been at the forefront of Best Actor chatter. This resulted in pending noms at SAG and BAFTA and a victory at the Critics Choice Awards.

The Case Against Brendan Fraser:

Reaction to the film itself has been as varied as the lead’s filmography. It missed a Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay nomination. The last Best Actor winner whose movie missed the BP cut is Jeff Bridges from Crazy Heart in 2009. Austin Butler (Elvis) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), who each took the respective lead Actor competitions at the Golden Globes, don’t have that problem.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

The narrative of a Fraser podium trip might be too enticing for voters to pass up. However, The Whale‘s divisive reaction throws real doubt as to whether he goes all the way.

My Case Of posts will continue with Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin!

If you missed the previous posts for the Actor hopefuls, you can peruse them here:

Oscars: The Case of Austin Butler in Elvis

Oscars: The Case of Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin

Oscars: The Case of Paul Mescal in Aftersun

Oscars: The Case of Bill Nighy in Living

Shoulda Been Oscar Contenders: Jim Carrey in The Truman Show

1994’s 1-2-3 comedic punch of Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, The Mask, and Dumb and Dumber vaulted Jim Carrey from In Living Color small screen MVP to one of the biggest movie stars on the planet. $20 million paydays followed and, four years later, the Canadian phenom entered the awards conversation.

For Peter Weir’s prescient satire The Truman Show, Carrey’s performance mixed the funny with the dramatic for the first time in a major role. Solid box office numbers and impressive reviews followed. Ed Harris was nominated for a Supporting Actor Oscar in addition to Weir’s direction and the original screenplay.

Yet a nod for its headliner was inexplicably left on the cutting room floor. This was even after he won Best Actor (Drama) at the Golden Globes. To be fair, other nominations in the main acting derby featured heavy hitters: Tom Hanks (Saving Private Ryan), Ian McKellen (Gods and Monsters), Nick Nolte (Affliction), and Edward Norton (American History X).

If I had a magic wand, I probably would put Carrey in over the somewhat surprise winner – Roberto Benigni for Life is Beautiful. Nearly a quarter century ago, Carrey’s omission stands as another example of actors known more for laughs coming up short. He still has not managed to get on the Oscar radar and lately his cinematic output has been Sonic the Hedgehog related. The Truman Show, in all reality, should’ve been his contender.

X-Men at 20: A Look Back

Twenty years ago today, Bryan Singer’s X-Men arrived in theaters and it’s not hyperbole to call it one of the most influential pictures of the 21st century. The 20th Century Fox release found the comic book genre at a rather low point at the end of that said century. While Blade was a nice size hit in 1998, the years prior found at a lot to be desired with the quality of the genre. 1995 brought us Judge Dredd and 1997 saw the release of Batman and Robin, which found the Caped Crusader with Bat nipples and bad reviews.

X-Men, though it’s hard to remember now, was released at a time where the idea of superhero tales was an uncertain box office prospect. This is two years before Spider-Man broke all kinds of financial records. This is five years prior to Christopher Nolan reinvigorating the Bat franchise with his Dark Knight trilogy. And this was eight years before Robert Downey Jr. was cast as Tony Stark/Iron Man, officially kicking off the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

In the summer of 2000, X-Men was by no means a guaranteed hit. It did, however, have credibility with the behind the scenes talent and cast. Bryan Singer was known for his heralded The Usual Suspects. Acclaimed actors Patrick Stewart, Ian McKellen (fresh off an Oscar nod for Gods and Monsters), Anna Paquin, and Halle Berry were among the onscreen players. And it was another casting decision that provided its most enduring legacy. Russell Crowe, who headlined that summer’s Oscar winner Gladiator, originally turned down the part of Wolverine. Dougray Scott was then cast in the role, but had to drop out when his role as the villain in Mission: Impossible II (also out that summer) prevented him from filming. So it was the unknown Hugh Jackman who donned the claws. He would go on to make it his signature role as he played Logan/Wolverine in numerous sequels and spin-offs (including three stand-alone projects of wildly divergent qualities).

Let’s back up. Before the 2000 release, X-Men was in development for over a decade and a half. At one point, James Cameron was slated to produce with his then wife Kathryn Bigelow attached to direct. Later on, Robert Rodriguez turned the project down. A gander at the pic’s Wikipedia page is an entertaining read (Mariah Carey was in the mix for Storm at one juncture and Angela Bassett was first choice). X-Men was rushed to make its summer release date 20 years ago today after it was originally intended for Christmas 2000.

That rushed feeling does show on up on screen a little, but the overall end result speaks for itself. What occurred two decades ago is a major mark in the comic book movie renaissance that continues to this day. The franchise has certainly had its ups and downs. X2: X-Men United was the first sequel in 2003 and it is generally considered a high point. Three years later, Brett Ratner took over directorial reigns with The Last Stand and (while a huge hit) the quality took a dip. Matthew Vaughn would reestablish critical kudos in rebooting the series in 2011 with First Class (bringing Michael Fassbender, James McAvoy, and Jennifer Lawrence to the screen playing younger counterparts to key characters). Jackman’s first spin-off X-Men Origins: Wolverine faced deserved backlash while 2017’s Logan was lauded and landed an Adapted Screenplay Oscar nomination. And a cheeky and R rated offshoot called Deadpool with Ryan Reynolds would dazzle audiences and critics alike. Last summer’s Dark Phoenix didn’t do any dazzling and was another low ebb in the series. Spin-off The New Mutants has seen release date changes that began in 2018 and it’s pretty much a running joke as to whether it will ever come out.

That long road began in 2000 and has shaped the cinematic universe since. And if you had to mark a spot for the comic book landscape today as it stands now on the screen, it started that day.

Daily Streaming Guide: April 3rd Edition

Today’s Streaming Guide focuses on an Oscar nominated period drama that is available for viewing via Hulu:

1998’s Gods and Monsters is responsible for introducing many American filmgoers to the work of Ian McKellen before he became a household name shortly thereafter with the X-Men and Lord of the Rings franchises. He’s cast as director James Whale, most known for his horror classics Frankenstein and Bride of Frankenstein. Set in the 1950s, Whale is aging and medically fragile and under the care of Lynn Redgrave’s nurse. Brendan Fraser (in rare dramatic work) costars as a young gardener who befriends Whale and is the object of his affection.

Monsters deservedly garnered Academy nominations for McKellen and Redgrave and won Best Adapted Screenplay. It’s worthy of a look.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Watch: The Good Liar

Pairing Sir Ian McKellen and Dame Helen Mirren together is a potential recipe for awards attention success and that’s happening next weekend with the release of The Good Liar. The thriller comes from Bill Condon, who directed McKellen to one of his two Oscar nods in Gods and Monsters. Mirren has received four Academy recognitions with a win in 2006 for The Queen.

The thriller casts McKellen as a con artist attempting to swindle Mirren’s wealthy widow. Reviews are out and while they’re decent (71% on Rotten Tomatoes), the picture is highly unlikely to be much of a box office success and awards chatter is very quiet. While the two leads are garnering praise for their work, both the lead Actor and Actress categories are already filled with more legitimate contenders.

Bottom line: the truth is that The Good Liar will come up empty-handed come nominations time. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

The Good Liar Box Office Prediction

A sir and a dame team up for the thriller The Good Liar next weekend with hopes to bring in a mature audience. Ian McKellen is the con artist to Helen Mirren’s rich widow. Bill Condon, who directed McKellen to an Oscar nod in 1998’s Gods and Monsters, serves behind the camera. The supporting cast includes Russell Tovey and Jim Carter.

Liar looks to bring in a Downton Abbey crowd looking for something a bit more devilish. Awards buzz would help and Liar appears unlikely to achieve it. Reviews are mixed with a current Rotten Tomatoes rating of 55%. There’s also adult competition in the form of Ford v Ferrari, which should have the pole position for the weekend.

I believe this will fail to achieve a double digits start for the royal talent involved.

The Good Liar opening weekend prediction: $6 million

For my Ford v Ferrari prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/05/ford-v-ferrari-box-office-prediction/

For my Charlie’s Angels prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/06/charlies-angels-box-office-prediction/

Best Actor: A Look Back

My look back at the major Oscar categories from 1990 to the present arrives at Best Actor today! If you missed my posts covering Actress and the Supporting races, you can find them here:

Best Actress: A Look Back

Best Supporting Actor: A Look Back

Best Supporting Actress: A Look Back

As with those previous entries, I am picking the three least surprising winners of the last 28 years, along with the three biggest upsets. Additionally, you’ll see my personal picks for strongest and weakest fields overall.

As a primer, here are the winners from 1990 to now:

1990 – Jeremy Irons, Reversal of Fortune

1991 – Anthony Hopkins, The Silence of the Lambs

1992 – Al Pacino, Scent of a Woman

1993 – Tom Hanks, Philadelphia

1994 – Tom Hanks, Forrest Gump

1995 – Nicolas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas

1996 – Geoffrey Rush, Shine

1997 – Jack Nicholson, As Good As It Gets

1998 – Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful

1999 – Kevin Spacey, American Beauty

2000 – Russell Crowe, Gladiator

2001 – Denzel Washington, Training Day

2002 – Adrien Brody, The Pianist

2003 – Sean Penn, Mystic River

2004 – Jamie Foxx, Ray

2005 – Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote

2006 – Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

2007 – Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

2008 – Sean Penn, Milk

2009 – Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

2010 – Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

2011 – Jean Dujardin, The Artist

2012 – Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

2013 – Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

2014 – Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

2015 – Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

2016 – Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

2017 – Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Let’s begin with the three that I’m deeming as the non-surprise winners. Whittling this down to that number was a challenge. The double wins by Hanks and Penn and even last year’s winner Oldman could’ve easily been named here, too. Here goes…

3. Al Pacino, Scent of a Woman

The legendary thespian was 0 for 6 when it came to nominations and wins entering 1992. He picked up his 7th and 8th nods that year with his supporting role in Glengarry Glen Ross and lead role as a blind former colonel in this Martin Brest directed drama. By Oscar night, it was clear he was finally going to make that trip to the podium.

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Like Pacino, DiCaprio had been an Academy bridesmaid before… four times. His fifth nod for The Revenant guaranteed he’d finally be a winner against weak competition (more on that below).

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

I could have named the Method actor’s victory in 2007 for There Will Be Blood as well, but his win five years later as the nation’s 16th President edges it out. From the moment the Steven Spielberg project was announced, Day-Lewis was the odds on favorite and it never changed.

Now – my selections for the upsets:

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Silence of the Lambs

While it might seem an obvious win nearly 30 years later, Nick Nolte’s work in The Prince of Tides had nabbed him the Golden Globe. Additionally, there was some controversy about Sir Anthony’s inclusion in the lead race due to his approximate 16 minutes of screen time. This is truly evidence of a performance so towering that it couldn’t be ignored.

2. Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful

The Italian director/writer/actor was an underdog against competition that included Nick Nolte (once again) for Affliction and Ian McKellen in Gods and Monsters. Mr. Benigni seemed a bit shocked himself when his name was called, as he famously bounded exuberantly to the stage.

1. Adrien Brody, The Pianist

The smart money in 2002 was with Jack Nicholson in About Schmidt or Daniel Day-Lewis in Gangs of New York. Brody’s win was pretty shocking, as was the giant smooch he planted on presenter Halle Berry.

When it comes to overall fields, I’m going recent history with both. For strongest, I’ll give it to 2012. That’s the year Day-Lewis won for Lincoln. All other nominees were rock solid as well with Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), and Denzel Washington (Flight).

For weakest, I’m picking 2015. This is the aforementioned year of DiCaprio’s overdue win. The rest of the field, however, was a bit lacking. It consisted of Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Matt Damon (The Martian), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), and Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl).

And there’s your Actor look back, folks! Keep an eye out for Best Picture soon as the final post in this series…

The Best Picture Coulda Been Contenders: 1990-2008

In 2009, the Academy underwent a change in the number of Best Picture nominees honored each year. The rule change allowed a fluctuation of five to ten nominees per year, as opposed to a finite five (all other categories stayed at that number).

As has been discussed on this blog, many felt the change was triggered by 2008’s The Dark Knight, the critically acclaimed comic book pic that was also highest earner of the year. It failed to a garner a Best Picture nod and the thinking was that it was time for more popular options to make it into the mix.

Since the change, the magic number has been nine nominated pictures in most years. This got me thinking: what if that rule had been in effect during prior years? What movies that failed to get a nomination would have certainly made it?

That brings us here. I have gone back to 1990 through 2008 and I’m listing two films from each year that I am confident would have made the shortlist. In selecting each title, here were some of the key indicators. If a Director was nominated for his work and the film failed to get nominated, that probably means it would have been included. Additionally, the screenplay races are a decent predictor of some titles that might have made the magic nine (or eight or ten). For reference sake, I am including the five movies that did get nominated.

So here goes! Two features from 1990-2008 that coulda and likely woulda been contenders…

1990

The Actual Nominees: Dances with Wolves (Winner), Awakenings, Ghost, The Godfather Part III, GoodFellas

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The Grifters, Reversal of Fortune

1991

The Actual Nominees: The Silence of the Lambs (W), Beauty and the Beast, Bugsy, JFK, The Prince of Tides

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Boyz N The Hood, Thelma & Louise

1992

The Actual Nominees: Unforgiven (W), The Crying Game, A Few Good Men, Howards End, Scent of a Woman

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Malcolm X, The Player

1993

The Actual Nominees: Schindler’s List (W), The Fugitive, In the Name of the Father, The Piano, The Remains of the Day

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Philadelphia, Short Cuts

1994

The Actual Nominees: Forrest Gump (W), Four Weddings and a Funeral, Pulp Fiction, Quiz Show, The Shawshank Redemption

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Bullets Over Broadway, Three Colors: Red

1995

The Actual Nominees: Braveheart (W), Apollo 13, Babe, Il Postino, Sense and Sensibility

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Dead Man Walking, Leaving Las Vegas

1996

The Actual Nominees: The English Patient (W), Fargo, Jerry Maguire, Secrets & Lies, Shine

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The People Vs. Larry Flynt, Sling Blade

1997

The Actual Nominees: Titanic (W), As Good as It Gets, The Full Monty, Good Will Huinting, L.A. Confidential

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Boogie Nights, The Sweet Hereafter

1998

The Actual Nominees: Shakespeare in Love (W), Elizabeth, Life is Beautiful, Saving Private Ryan, The Thin Red Line

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Gods and Monsters, The Truman Show

1999

The Actual Nominees: American Beauty (W), The Cider House Rules, The Green Mile, The Insider, The Sixth Sense

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Being John Malkovich, Topsy-Turvy

2000

The Actual Nominees: Gladiator (W), Chocolat, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Erin Brockovich, Traffic

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Almost Famous, Billy Elliot

2001

The Actual Nominees: A Beautiful Mind (W), Gosford Park, In the Bedroom, Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge!

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Black Hawk Down, Mulholland Drive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeevxJaJl1U

2002

The Actual Nominees: Chicago (W), Gangs of New York, The Hours, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, The Pianist

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Far from Heaven, Talk to Her

2003

The Actual Nominees: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (W), Lost in Translation, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Mystic River, Seabiscuit

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: City of God, In America

2004

The Actual Nominees: Million Dollar Baby (W), The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Ray, Sideways

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Hotel Rwanda, Vera Drake

2005

The Actual Nominees: Crash (W), Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Syriana, Walk the Line

2006

The Actual Nominees: The Departed (W), Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Pan’s Labyrinth, United 93

2007

The Actual Nominees: No Country for Old Men (W), Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Away from Her, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

2008

The Actual Nominees: Slumdog Millionaire (W), The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader

The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The Dark Knight, Doubt

And there you have it! There will be a part II to this post. What if the rule change had never occurred? From 2009 until the present, what would have been the five nominated Pictures if only that number was allowed. Stay tuned…