Tag: Gerard Butler

January 9-11 Box Office Predictions

The initial cinematic experiences of 2026 arrive this weekend via disaster flick sequel Greenland 2: Migration, animalistic horror tale Primate, and the nationwide expansion of dramedy Is This Thing On? You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Greenland 2: Migration Box Office Prediction
Primate Box Office Prediction
Is This Thing On? Box Office Prediction

My near teens projection for Gerard Butler’s Migration would give it the highest debut of the newcomers, but that won’t be near enough to dislodge Avatar: Fire and Ash from a fourth frame atop the rankings. Now that the Christmas corridor has lapsed, holdovers should generally see declines in the 50% or so range.

Primate could certainly over perform as the genre sometimes does, but I’ve got it in a race with a fellow (and family friendlier) creature feature in the seventh weekend of Zootopia 2. The Housemaid should round out the top five.

As for Bradley Cooper’s third directorial feature Is This Thing On?, my meager $2.6 million take puts it well outside the top half of the charts. It might even fail to make the top 10. I’m expecting the same for Angel Studios’ I Was a Stranger. I didn’t do an individual prediction post for it. I’ll say $2.4 million.

And with that, here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $20 million

2. Greenland 2: Migration

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Primate

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

5. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

Box Office Results (January 2-4)

It was a heap of holiday leftovers as 2026 rang in with Avatar: Fire and Ash dominating with $41.4 million, in line with my $41.4 million call. The James Cameron threequel is up to $307 million after three weeks. This will not reach the heights of its predecessors, but I would imagine the studio would have no qualms with future sequels.

Zootopia 2 only eased 2% in weekend #6 with $19.3 million, toppling my $15.3 million prediction. The Disney blockbuster stands at $364 million.

The Housemaid has developed commendable legs with only a 1% dip at $15.1 million compared to my $12.5 million estimate. The buzzy thriller has earned $75 million after three weeks with nine digits in its sights.

Marty Supreme was fourth with $12.5 million (I went a little higher at $14.2 million) as the potential Timothée Chalamet Oscar winner has grown to $56 million in its second frame of wide release.

Anaconda rounded out the top five with $10 million, slithering beyond my $8 million projection for $45 million after two weeks.

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants found itself in sixth with $8.3 millon (I said $7.7 million) for $57 million after three weeks,

Biblical animated pic David was seventh with $7.6 million, a touch ahead of my $6.5 million guesstimate for $69 million in three weeks,

Finally, Song Sung Blue was eighth with $5.8 million (I said $6 million) with $25 million now in the coffers of the musical drama.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Greenland 2: Migration Box Office Prediction

Gerard Butler headlines the disaster flick sequel Greenland 2: Migration which kicks off 2026 releases on January 9th. He reunites with his Angel Has Fallen and Kandahar director Ric Roman Waugh for a follow-up to the 2020 original. Costars include Morena Baccarin and Roman Griffin Davis.

A comp to part 1 is impossible since it was put out in December 2020 without a theatrical release due to the COVID pandemic. It did perform well on home viewing. Butler’s genre pics have a history with early January debuts. 2023’s Plane earned just over $10 million out of the gate while last year’s Den of Thieves 2: Pantera made off with $15 million.

My hunch is that Migration gets right between those numbers for a respectable enough start.

Greenland 2: Migration opening weekend prediction: $12.9 million

For my Primate prediction, click here:

Primate Box Office Prediction

For my Is This Thing On? prediction, click here:

Is This Thing On? Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: In the Hand of Dante

Julian Schnabel has Oscar history with Before Night Falls from 2000 (in which Javier Bardem was up for lead Actor), 2007’s The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (four noms including Director), and At Eternity’s Gate (Willem Dafoe contending for Actor). His latest is the period piece drama In the Hand of Dante, sporting an eclectic cast headlined by Oscar Isaac and including Gal Gadot, Gerard Butler, John Malkovich, Jason Momoa, Louis Cancelmi, Sophia Impacciatore, Franco Nero, and Al Pacino.

Stateside release is undetermined at press time. Despite the star power, distributors might not be lining up since this was generally considered one of the misfires at the Venice Film Festival. While some critics tipped their cap to its ambition, most say it wasn’t brimming with overall quality. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 35% and that should ensure Dante doesn’t fire up awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: How to Train Your Dragon

All three How to Train Your Dragon features from DreamWorks Animation have received Best Animated Feature nominations and all lost to Disney. In 2010, the original fell short to Toy Story 3. Four years later, the sequel couldn’t overcome Big Hero 6. 2019’s The Hidden World didn’t get more votes than Woody and Buzz once again with Toy Story 4.

This Friday, Dean DeBlois (who directed the Dragon trilogy) returns behind the camera with the live-action rendering of part 1 with a sequel already in the works. Cast members include Mason Thames, Nico Parker, Nick Frost, Julian Dennison, Gabriel Howell, Bronwyn James, Harry Trevaldwyn, Ruth Codd, Peter Serafinowicz, Murray McArthur, and Gerard Butler.

The fantasy adventure looks to slay the box office this weekend. Could it keep the streak going of Oscar nods for the series? Reviews are mostly solid with 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 67 Metacritic. It is worthy of note that both numbers are lower than the three pictures preceding it. That said, Costume Design and Sound are long shot possibilities. Where DreamWorks could mount a legit campaign is in Visual Effects, but expect plenty of competition for those five spots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

How to Train Your Dragon Box Office Prediction

DreamWorks is looking for their live-action remake of How to Train Your Dragon to breath some fire (sorry) into the box office when it opens June 13th. Updating their 2010 animated hit that spawned two sequels, Dean DeBlois (maker of the drawn Dragon trilogy) directs. The cast includes Mason Thames, Nico Parker, Gerard Butler, Nick Frost, Gabriel Howell, Julian Dennison, Bronwyn James, Harry Trevaldwyn, Ruth Codd, Peter Serafinowicz, and Murray McArthur.

This is a subgenre that has served Disney well in recent years and this summer with Lilo & Stitch (DeBlois made the 2002 original). DreamWorks should follow suit and this appears poised to achieve the best franchise opening thus far with room to spare. The original 15 years ago started with $43 million. 2014’s sequel improved upon that with $49 million while 2019’s How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World earned $55 million. While each premiere improved upon its predecessor, the first Dragon has the best overall domestic take ($217 million) followed by #2 ($177 million) and #3 ($160 million).

Some estimates have this approaching nine figures, but I’ll hedge my bets and go with mid to high eighties.

How to Train Your Dragon opening weekend prediction: $84.3 million

For my Materialists prediction, click here:

Materialists Box Office Prediction

January 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Blumhouse’s horror remake Wolf Man looks to dominate the box office charts this weekend while Keke Palmer and SZA headline the buddy comedy One of Them Days. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Wolf Man Box Office Prediction
One of Them Days Box Office Prediction

Sporting a meager budget of reportedly $7 million, Wolf Man from The Invisible Man director Leigh Whannell could see a gross close to $20 million (or at least low to mid teens in the worst case scenario). That should mean an easy perch at #1 under either scenario.

As for One of Them Days, it has a shot of exceeding my expectations. However, my mid to single digits take should mean a fourth or fifth place showing depending on the drops of holdovers.

Den of Thieves 2: Pantera was able to snag the top spot this past weekend (more on that below). It may slide to third with a mid 40s decline with Mufasa: The Lion King staying put in second if it drops in the low to mid 30s.

Here’s how I envision the high five shaking out:

1. Wolf Man

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

2. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

3. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

4. One of Them Days

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. Sonic the Hedgehog 3

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (January 10-12)

Gerard Butler scored bragging rights as Den of Thieves 2: Pantera managed first position with $15 million. That’s ahead of my $13.3 million forecast and right in line with the $15.2 million that its 2018 predecessor achieved for its start. This is a much needed boost for Lionsgate after a 2024 littered with bombs including Borderlands, The Crow, and Megalopolis.

Mufasa: The Lion King, after two weeks atop the box office mountain, was runner-up with $14.2 million. That’s on pace with my $14.4 million call as the Disney property’s fortunes rose to $189 million after four weeks.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was third with $11.3 million, on target with my $10.9 million prediction. The Sega threequel has amassed $204 million during its four-week run.

Nosferatu was fourth with $6.8 million, falling below my $8.6 million estimate. This horror remake stands at $81 million after three weeks.

Finally, Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $6.5 million (I said $6.3 million). The Mouse House sequel has grossed $434 million in seven weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Gerard Butler’s sequel Den of Thieves 2: Pantera is not the only fresh wide release this weekend, but I believe it’s the sole newbie that will be in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Thieves here:

Den of Thieves 2: Pantera Box Office Prediction

The follow-up to the 2018 heist thriller could see a start in the low double digits to possibly low teens. That’s not exactly an impressive start, but it should be enough to manage the #2 spot just behind Mufasa in this sleepy January frame.

That’s based on the assumption that current champ Mufasa: The Lion King falls in the low to mid 40s with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 dwindling closer to 50%. Nosferatu may experience the smallest decline (perhaps mid 30s) with Moana 2 rounding out the top five.

As mentioned, there are other newcomers debuting or expanding wide. That includes the Telugu-language action thriller Game Changer, The Last Showgirl with Pamela Anderson, and monkey themed Robbie Williams biopic Better Man. I’m not envisioning any breaking into that high five so here’s how I see the chart playing out:

1. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million

2. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

3. Sonic the Hedgehog 3

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

4. Nosferatu

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

Box Office Results (January 3-5)

The New Year rang in with holiday leftovers and Mufasa: The Lion King continuing its perch atop the chart. Disney’s product took in $23.4 million, a shade below my $25.1 million forecast. The three-week total stands at $168 million.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was runner-up with $21.3 million, on target with my $20.9 million call. The Sega property’s three-week gross is $187 million.

Nosferatu was third in its sophomore frame with $13 million, in line with my $13.4 million projection. The 40% drop for the horror title is commendable and it’s up to $69 million with over $100 million when counting worldwide earnings.

Animated sequel Moana 2 was fourth with $12.4 million (I said $13 million) for a six-week tally of $425 million.

Wicked was fifth and it dropped further in its seventh outing than I figured at $9.9 million compared to my $14.2 million estimate. Nevertheless the Golden Globe recipient for Cinematic & Box Office Achievement has amassed $450 million.

Finally, A Complete Unknown was sixth in weekend #2 with $8.1 million. I went a little higher at $9.3 million as the Bob Dylan biopic has made $41 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Den of Thieves 2: Pantera Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate, who had a rough run in 2024 (The Crow, Megalopolis), hopes 2025 begins better with Den of Thieves: Pantera on January 10th. Christian Gudegast returns to the director’s seat for this follow-up to 2018’s action drama. Gerard Butler, O’Shea Jackson Jr., and Meadow Williams reprise their roles from seven years ago with Evin Ahmed and Salvatore Esposito joining the cast.

The original was reportedly shot for $30 million and it made half its budget back opening weekend with a $44 million eventual domestic gross and $80 million total globally. Whether that’s enough to warrant a sequel is a good question.

I think this might fall under the $15.3 million that its predecessor took in though the lack of competition could mean it over performs my estimate.

Den of Thieves: Pantera opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million

The Beekeeper Box Office Prediction

Amazon MGM is hoping for solid buzz when The Beekeeper debuts on January 12th. It comes from Fury and Suicide Squad maker David Ayer with Jason Statham headlining the revenge tale. Costars include Emmy Raver-Lampman, Josh Hutcherson, Bobby Naderi, Minnie Driver, Phylicia Rashad, and Jeremy Irons.

It may sound like a kiddie animated flick, but the action thriller hopes to get genre fans out over the long MLK frame. With its attention grabbing name, one comp could be Gerard Butler’s Plane from last year. That plainly titled pic made nearly $12 million over the Friday to Monday portion of MLK. Another comp (as far as generic action exercises go) is 2017’s Sleepless with Jamie Foxx. It came in with just under $10 million for the four-day.

I’ll say The Beekeeper makes off with a number barely over $10 million in line with the aforementioned features.

The Beekeeper opening weekend prediction: $10.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Mean Girls prediction, click here:

Mean Girls Box Office Prediction

For my The Book of Clarence prediction, click here:

The Book of Clarence Box Office Prediction

June 2-4 Box Office Predictions

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swings into multiplexes for a highly likely first place debut while The Boogeyman lurks for a start in third position. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Box Office Prediction
The Boogeyman Box Office Prediction

Spidey is the follow-up to 2018’s Oscar-winning animated adventure Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. In addition to plenty of awards, it had an A+ Cinemascore grade and nearly $200 million in domestic sales. Anticipation should be elevated for the sequel (with part 3 coming next year). That’s why some estimates have this as lofty as $100 million. I’m a tad more conservative, but I’ll say it clears $90 million.

The Boogeyman should take advantage of its PG-13 rating, the connection to Stephen King for the source material, and that there’s been a slight lull between horror flicks. Heck – it probably helps that it’s called The Boogeyman. I could see this opening similarly to The Black Phone and Smile. That would mean high teens or low 20s for a solid third place showing.

Memorial Day weekend champ The Little Mermaid should drop to second after a mixed bag of a debut (more on that below). A mid 50s dip (similar to the live-action Aladdin four years ago) would mean a number slightly north of $40 million.

The 4-5 slots should belong to sequel holdovers Fast X and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. It could be a close race between the two as they each may earn a tad over $10 million.

Here’s how I see it looking:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $96.4 million

2. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $40.5 million

3. The Boogeyman

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million

4. Fast X

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

Box Office Results (May 26-29)

As expected, Disney’s The Little Mermaid (updating the 1989 classic) swam to the top of the charts. It did so on the lower end of its expected range. Over the four-day holiday, the total was $118.8 million. That’s below my take of $132.1 million. While nowhere near the starts of Beauty and the Beast or The Lion King from 2017 and 2019, it is on pace with what Aladdin accomplished over Memorial Day four years back.

Fast X slipped to second with $28.5 million and that managed to exceed my $25.4 million estimate. Vin Diesel and company have seen the beginning to the end of their two-decade long franchise earn $113 million thus far.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was third with $26.8 million, on target with my $26 million call. The MCU threequel stands at $306 million.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie took fourth place with $8.2 million (I said $7.6 million) to bring its massive haul to $560 million.

Spots 5-7, as anticipated, went to three newcomers. I didn’t correctly call their placements. The Machine with popular standup and podcaster Bert Kreischer was fifth with $5.8 million, ahead of my $3.7 million forecast. While not spectacular, it’s on the better end of its predicted range.

About My Father, featuring another popular standup Sebastian Maniscalco alongside Robert De Niro, was on the lesser end of the range. The family comedy was sixth with $5.3 million. I said a touch more at $6.2 million.

Finally, Gerard Butler’s action pic Kandahar bombed in seventh with only $2.8 million. I was more generous at $4.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast where I discuss all things box office by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you like to stream. Until next time…