Oscar Predictions: No Hard Feelings

There are times when these Oscar Predictions posts quickly morph into Golden Globe Predictions entries. Such is the case for No Hard Feelings. The raunchy comedy hits theaters this Friday with Jennifer Lawrence starring. Good Boys director Gene Stupnitsky is behind the camera and the supporting cast includes Andrew Barth Feldman, Laura Benanti, Natalie Morales, and Matthew Broderick.

The hard R-rated flick is generating mixed notices with a 61% Rotten Tomatoes score. The Sony Release isn’t meant to be an awards player. However, even the bulk of negative reviews have kind words for Lawrence. In her first theatrical headlining role since 2018’s Red Sparrow, J-Law has been with a fixture at the Globes. She’s a five-time nominee and three of them were for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy. Two were victories for 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook and 2015’s Joy. She also made the cut for 2021’s Don’t Look Up.

A sixth GG nod is not out of the question, but it will depend on how stacked the race is. That remains to be seen. My Oscar (Globe) Prediction posts will continue…

No Hard Feelings Box Office Prediction

Jennifer Lawrence enters new genre territory with No Hard Feelings on June 23rd. The raunchy comedy casts the Oscar winner as a down on her luck Uber driver hired to teach a 19-year-old (Andrew Barth Feldman) the birds and bees. Gene Stupnitsky, who made the 2019 sleeper hit Good Boys, directs. Costars include Matthew Broderick, Laura Benanti, Natalie Morales, Scott MacArthur, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach.

It’s been a minute since Lawrence has graced the big screen. She was in the supporting cast as Mystique for Dark Phoenix four years ago, but you have to go back five years to Red Sparrow since her last headlining multiplex appearance. Her last two features (Don’t Look Up, Causeway) went the streaming route. Audiences are accustomed to seeing her in action flicks and dramas so this is certainly a test.

As I’ve mentioned a lot over the past few years, it’s a challenge for original comedies to break out. Plenty of viewers may simply wait until it’s ready for home consumption. If this had come out at the height of Lawrence’s bankability, I might be offering a different outlook.

Sony Pictures won’t like this comp, but Rough Night with Scarlett Johansson was another example of a popular actress branching out to this type of movie. Debuting in June six years ago, the result was a soft $8 million start. I’ll say this gets over that figure, but not by too much.

No Hard Feelings opening weekend prediction: $11.7 million

For my Asteroid City prediction, click here:

Asteroid City Box Office Prediction

Good Boys Movie Review

Yes, there’s an apt comparison to be made between Good Boys and 2007’s Superbad. This is kind of the middle school version of that movie from over a decade ago. Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg wrote the latter and they serve as producers here. Both involve young boys with their dirty minds trying to make it to a party that they view as potentially life changing (all events are greatly elevated in status at these ages).

What both get right is portraying the naïveté of their central characters. They may talk a good game in their minds, but there’s a whole lot about sex and drugs that they simply don’t understand yet. There’s inherent humor in that. Plenty of raunchy youth comedies are simply in it for the gross out humor. Another layer exists here and it’s one of sweetness to occasionally balance out the R rated aspects.

Max (Jacob Tremblay), Lucas (Keith L. Williams), and Thor (Brady Noon) have just entered the wild world of middle school. Their curiosity level when it comes to girls, beer, and after school get togethers is in peak form. They christen themselves The Beanbag Boys since a good chunk of their lives are spent playing games and conversing while sitting on them. Max has a crush on a fellow student and might have an opportunity to make his move at a party that the cool kids invite him to. Thor is more interested in excelling at the school musical (an ill conceived pint size rendering of Rock of Ages), but struggles with that since the cool kids don’t think that’s cool. Lucas has a happy life that’s disrupted by parental divorce. He’s unlikely to ever be the cool kid and doesn’t quite know that yet.

The boys friendship is tested over a long day where they skip school, steal Max’s dad’s fancy drone, and turn into amateur ecstasy dealers so they don’t get in deeper trouble (it all makes sense in context). The laugh ratio here is pretty high as the trio must learn about kissing (the porn sites they go don’t help much) and dealing with college kids to score drugs.

Tremblay is the famous kid of the bunch as he’s known for his impressive serious work in Room and Wonder. He gets to drop some F bombs for the first time and he looks precocious doing it. I would say it’s Williams, however, that shines the brightest. The couple scenes with his splitting parents are comedic highlights. They display what makes Good Boys work best. It’s funny, but with an undertone of these kids learning the real world for the first time. Like Superbad, the central figures come to discover life will exist beyond their childhood friendships. It takes plenty of crass jokes to get them there, but those gags work more often than they don’t.

*** (out of four)

Good Boys Box Office Prediction

Good Boys is looking to become this summer’s Superbad when the raunchy comedy debuts next weekend. Marking the directorial debut of Gene Stupnitsky, the film centers on three preteens doing R rated shenanigans. The kids are played by Jacob Tremblay of Room and Wonder fame, as well as unknowns Keith L. Williams and Brady Noon. Costars include Will Forte, Molly Gordon, and Lil Rel Howery.

Keeping with the Superbad theme, Boys comes from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg’s production company, who wrote that 2007 hit. The pic was first unveiled in March at the South by Southwest Festival to positive reaction. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 78%.

That said, the buzz for this doesn’t seem as high. The chance for this to over perform is there. Yet I’m skeptical this earns half of the $33 million achieved by Superbad, which premiered over the same late summer weekend a dozen years ago. In fact, its debut might be in the preteens just like its stars.

Good Boys opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million