Oscar Watch: The Birth of a Nation

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Just one day after the Sundance Film Festival gave us our first 2016 Oscar contender with Manchester by the Sea, the second landed today in a very big way. It arrived in the form of Nate Parker’s The Birth of a Nation, which Mr. Parker also cowrote and stars in. Nation tells the story of the 1831 slave rebellion led by Nat Turner. Costars include Armie Hammer, Jackie Earle Haley, and Gabrielle Union. The $10 million production reportedly took Parker (a semi well known actor known who’s appeared in Red Tails and Non-Stop) seven years to get off the ground.

At today’s Sundance screening, Nation was greeted with rapturous word of mouth and a prolonged standing ovation. There is expected to be a feeding frenzy among studios to purchase the film’s rights. Expect fervent buzz for this get attention for Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and Actor with Parker seemingly on his way to becoming a household name.

Bottom line: two days at Sundance have already in January produced two real possibilities come next year at Oscar time.

Top Five Movie Review

Top Five showcases the work of an exceptionally brilliant stand up comedian who at last comes into his own on the silver screen. It took some time, but this is one solid payoff. Chris Rock’s greatest work in his quarter century of fame has always been created by him in the form what he’s accomplished on stage holding a mic. Not on SNL, where he was never used properly. Not in movies, which included him doing watered down bits of his act in the fourth Lethal Weapon and trying to fit into an action comedy with Anthony Hopkins. Even pictures he wrote himself, like the Heaven Can Wait remake Down to Earth and political satire Head of State, contained only glimpses of the edge and wit the star brought to a stage.

So it fits that Rock’s character here, Andre Allen, is a once revered comedian whose once hot film career has stalled. Allen has decided to take on more serious roles and nobody’s buying. They want to see him return for a fourth edition of his Hammy the Bear franchise, which casts him as a wisecracking cop in a bear suit. With no future Hammys on the horizon and a dud of a drama about Haitian slavery called Uprize about to debut, Andre’s life is garnering more attention for his impending nuptials to a reality TV star (Gabrielle Union). Their engagement and marriage is, of course, being shot as its own BRAVO series.

The picture takes place in the time span of one day, as Andre is being tailed by New York Times reporter Chelsea (Rosario Dawson) for a feature piece. She’s not your average interviewer and she manages to ask some probing questions to the actor that are more important than “Were you the class clown?” (though she asks that too). Soon the two are embroiled in occasionally deep and often very humorous discussions on their mutual addictions to alcohol, relationships, family, and fame. And we see Chelsea perhaps spark something in a performer who’s seemingly lost his creative way.

For Top Five to arrive not long after Rock made Grown Ups 2 causes me to wonder if he needed to make this. This is the freshest, most insightful and energetic and likely personal tale he’s ever commited to other than his stand up routine. There are genuine belly laughs yet its shift to a more serious tone in the second half works because the central characters are well developed. His chemistry with Dawson works and her performance is terrific, too.

While most of the action centers on the two leads, Top Five is jam packed with familiar faces from Kevin Hart to Tracy Morgan to Cedric the Entertainer. There are some cameos from unexpected celebs that are too good to spoil. Perhaps the best supporting character is JB Smoove as Andre’s barely needed bodyguard, who eventually really does come in handy.

The only minor quibble here is Hammy the Bear. It might’ve been a smarter move for writer/director Rock to make Andre have a similar film career to his real one. The Hammy thing is, well, kind of hammy and unnecessarily over the top silly in a screenplay that mostly avoids it.

Top Five is about an artist trying to rediscover what makes him special. We’ve always known Chris Rock is a force onstage. This is the first time he’s come darn close to greatness in this format.

***1/2 (out of four)

Top Five Box Office Prediction

Chris Rock is back in headlining mode as Top Five enters theaters this Friday. The acclaimed comedian wrote and directed the comedy and he stars as well. The supporting cast includes Gabrielle Union, Rosario Dawson, Kevin Hart, Tracy Morgan, and Cedric the Entertainer.

Top Five has garnered the approval of the critical community and it stands at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. As for Rock, he’s been in supporting mode for the greater part of this decade as he played second fiddle to Adam Sandler and others in the Grown Ups series. Prior to that, he’s seen some decent successes with solo ventures including Down to Earth and Head of State.

Positive word of mouth and reviews should help Top Five open to a solid start. What will limit it is the fact that it’s debuting on a relatively low 975 screens. It should still manage to surpass double digits out of the gate.

Top Five opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million

For my Exodus: Gods and Kings prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/06/exodus-gods-and-kings-box-office-prediction/

Think Like a Man Too Box Office Prediction

This Friday we will see if Kevin Hart’s terrific 2014 continues with Think Like a Man Too, the sequel to his surprise 2012 near blockbuster. The original got off to an impressive $33 million opening two years ago on its way to a $91M domestic gross. This is especially strong considering it cost a reported $12 million to produce. Since that time, Hart’s drawing power at the multiplex has only increased as this January’s Ride Along debuted to $41 million and the ensemble piece About Last Night made $25 million out of the gate in February.

With a supporting cast including Michael Ealy, Jerry Ferrera, Gabrielle Union, Regina Hall, Meagan Good, and Taraji P. Henson – Think Like a Man Too should succeed in bringing in African-American audiences and particularly females who made up 63% of the original’s opening weekend gross. There is one difference between this and the original and Ride Along – there is much more competition with its summer release. In particular, the second weekend of 22 Jump Street will still be bringing in the comedy crowds.

I believe Man Too should outshine the premiere gross of its predecessor but won’t quite reach Ride Along‘s level. It could surpass my expectations and a gross of $45 million wouldn’t shock me, but I’m going with high 30s for my prediction.

Think Like a Man Too opening weekend prediction: $38.2 million

For my Jersey Boys prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/jersey-boys-box-office-prediction/