Sony Pictures will release Freud’s Last Session on December 22nd. It premiered last week at the AFI Fest. Matt Brown directs the adaptation of Mark St. Germain’s play which imagines a fictional meeting between Sigmund Freud (Anthony Hopkins) and C.S. Lewis (Matthew Goode). Discussions on faith and psychology naturally follow.
The two-hander has drawn mixed reviews thus far (not enough for a Rotten Tomatoes score). While the script is being criticized and this will not generate any BP attention, there is the matter of Sir Anthony.
32 years after winning Best Actor for The Silence of the Lambs and three years after taking it again for The Father, the legend is unsurprisingly receiving praise for his work. At one time, I thought his awards viability could be stronger for One Life (which played the fest circuit this fall). However, its release date was recently slated for 2024.
With the so-so reviews, I suspect Hopkins won’t factor into this year’s leading man derby as it’s already stacked with likelier contenders from Bradley Cooper (Maestro) to Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) to Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and more. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My mid-October Oscar predictions has Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things leading the nominations tally with an impressive 12 apiece!
Poor Things rises partly because I’m putting Willem Dafoe back in my projected Supporting Actor quintet alongside his costar Mark Ruffalo. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) over Viola Davis (Air). This is Cruz’s first appearance in my top five.
Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to my Actress five with Greta Lee (Past Lives) on the outside looking in. You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+3)
6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Air (PR: 12) (+1)
12. American Fiction (PR: 1) (-1)
13. Napoleon (PR: 13) (E)
14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Origin
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Barry Koeghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
America Ferrera, Barbie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-1)
7. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon
Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (+4)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Settlers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Peasants
The Delinquents
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ferrari (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-4)
10. The Creator (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Killers of the Flower Moon
That gives us a tally for these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
10 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple
5 Nominations
The Holdovers, Maestro, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Past Lives
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Wish
1 Nominations
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge
The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.
Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).
I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.
For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.
The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.
In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.
Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.
My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.
Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Teo Yoo, Past Lives
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)
5. Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Teachers’ Lounge
Io capitano
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“High Life” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
10 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Maestro
5 Nominations
Past Lives
4 Nominations
The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
You could correctly call this Oscar Predictions post the calm before the festival storm as Venice kicks off this week with Telluride and Toronto right behind it. Yet a major development occurred last week as the sands of time are moving slower for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. The epic sequel was pushed back to the spring of 2024.
How big of an impact does that make for my forecasts? A heavy one as I had it achieving 11 nominations. In my previous projections on August 16th, that was second only to Oppenheimer‘s 12. I had it ranked 1st in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects, 2nd in Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound, 3rd in Picture and Director, and 4th for Adapted Screenplay.
In fact, a victory for Dune in Visual Effects was probably the easiest race to call this early (its predecessor won too). Now it makes the VE contest quite interesting. Oppenheimer could take the prize and mark Christopher Nolan’s second win in a row in the category after 2020’s Tenet. It opens the door wider for The Creator from Gareth Edwards. And there’s now more of a shot for the MCU to nab its first statue in VE for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in particular.
I plan to do my next update on Labor Day (September 4th). By that time, we will have reviews and buzz from Venice premieres including Ferrari, Maestro, Poor Things, Priscilla, and The Killer. We’ll also have the word out for whatever pics debut at Telluride (to be announced Thursday).
Right after that update on the 4th, the rest of the Venice titles and a slew of Toronto movies will be unveiled. They include The Holdovers, Rustin, Dumb Money, Next Goal Wins, Society of the Snow, Origin, Pain Hustlers,Nyad, Lee, American Fiction, The Burial, and Hit Man.
In other words… it’s about to get really interesting, folks! I’m also dropping some titles that I’m just not sure are actually releasing in 2023 like The Piano Lesson. Obviously, it will re-enter the dance if there’s confirmation on a release this year. Questions persist about other ones. Is Long Day’s Journey Into Night happening before December 31st? Is Shirley or Freud’s Last Session? Will other currently scheduled releases pull a Dune? The answer is likely affirmative.
With the Dune shift, Air moves back into my BP 10 and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in Director over Denis Villeneuve. In non-Dune related shifts, Sandra Huller is now #1 in Actress over The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino. Charles Melton from May December hits my Supporting Actor five over Willem Dafoe (Poor Things).
You can read all the movement below and my next update with the Venice buzz arrives in a week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Air (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)
15. Ferrari (PR: 16) (+1)
16. The Killer (PR: 17) (+1)
17. May December (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (E)
19. One Life (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Rustin (PR: 24) (+3)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (E)
23. Dumb Money (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Book of Clarence (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (E)
11. Caille Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (E)
12. Aunjanue Ellis, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Golda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)
12. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (-1)
14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (E)
11. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: 11) (E)
12. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
8. One Life (PR: 9) (+1)
9. BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (E)
13. Dumb Money (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Killer (PR: 15) (+1)
15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Taste of Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Monster (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
9. La Chimera (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
El Conde
The Delinquents
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: 9) (E)
10. They Shot the Piano Player (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. Every Body (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (E)
7. Orlando, A Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wild Life (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Black Ice
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Chevalier (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (E)
8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Killer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ferrari (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Golda (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked
10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Wonka
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Poor Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Napoleon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ferrari (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Creator (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Rebel Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wonka (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Little Mermaid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Killers of the Flower Moon
Blue Beetle
That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
8 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
Napoleon
4 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, The Killer, May December,Monster, Nimona, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
It’s looking like Netflix is going all in on Bradley Cooper’s Maestro being their main contender for awards love in 2023. With its first trailer out this week, the biopic is the biggest riser in Best Picture. Additionally, Carey Mulligan joins the Best Actress field with Annette Bening (Nyad) falling out.
Supporting Actress also sees a change as Viola Davis (Air) is back in over Rosamud Pike for Saltburn. It’s not a good update for Emerald Fennell’s sophomore feature as it also drops from BP with Poor Things returning.
In another significant development, Cillian Murphy’s work in Oppenheimer rises to #1 in Best Actor for the first time over Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon).
You can expect one more update at month’s end before the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto festivals arrive and dramatically reshape the race. That’s where we’ll catch our first glimpses and see first reactions to many contenders. They include Maestro, Poor Things, Rustin, The Killer, Ferrari, Priscilla, El Conde, Dumb Money, Nyad, Lee, One Life, Next Goal Wins, and more.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Ferrari (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Killer (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+1)
20. May December (PR: 17) (-3)
21. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Piano Lesson (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Rustin (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
Priscilla
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wes Anderson, Asteroid City
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)
13. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (E)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (E)
14. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helena Bonham Carter, One Life (PR: 13) (+2)
1.2 Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12 ) (-1)
14. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Audra McDonald, Rustin
America Ferrera, Barbie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Glynn Turman, Rustin
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Saltburn (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Rustin (PR: 10 (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 15) (+3)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 11) (-2)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+2)
9. One Life (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Killer (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ferrari
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. Monster (PR: 4) (E)
5.The Taste of Things (formerly The Pot-Au-Feu) (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fallen Leaves (PR: 8) (+1)
8. El Conde (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 9) (E)
10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Every Body (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Life (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Black Ice (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kokomo City
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ferrari (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Glaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Priscilla (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Golda (PR: 8) (E)
9. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+5)
5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Creator (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blue Beetle (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these films:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
7 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, Ferrari, May December, Monster, Priscilla, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
The box office and critical phenomenon known as Barbenheimer looms large over my first August Oscar predictions. I toyed with moving Oppenheimer and its maker Christopher Nolan to the #1 spots in BP and Director. They sit in second with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon clinging to the top. On the other hand, Robert Downey Jr.’s work in Oppenheimer is now first over Robert De Niro from Killers.
Meanwhile, I have finally put Barbie in my ten BP contenders and that takes out Air. While it materializes in the big race, I’m still keeping Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie out of Director and Actress, respectively.
We are a month away from the triumvirate of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. They will undoubtedly shape and alter what you read below. Here’s where I believe it stands right now.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Poor Things (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Air (PR: 9) (-3)
13. The Holdovers (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)
16. The Killer (PR: 21) (+5)
17. May December (PR: 15) (-1)
18. Ferrari (PR: 22) (+4)
19. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (-2)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Rustin (PR: 19) (-2)
22. The Piano Lesson (PR: 20) (-2)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
BlackBerry
The Book of Clarence
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (E)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)
13. Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Judy Greer, Eric Larue
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+4)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)
10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (E)
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (E)
13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 7) (-7)
15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
David Strathairn, A Little Prayer
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)
11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
14. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 15) (+5)
11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Matt Bomer, Maestro
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)
4. Air (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rustin (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Fair Play (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Drive Away Dolls
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)
9. Next Goal Wins (PR: 13) (+4)
10. BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (+1)
12. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-2)
13. The Killer (PR: 11) (-2)
14. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dumb Money
Freud’s Last Session
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Monster (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Pot-Au-Feu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)
7. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Fallen Leaves (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)
10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Perfect Days
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Creator (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
Spaceman
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
8 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives
6 Nominations
Poor Things
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Maestro
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Ferrari, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds and Snakes, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, Nyad, The Pot-Au-Feu, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
It is the weekend of “Barbenheimer” as Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer are posting fantastic results at the box office. With their review embargoes lifted, the always to be inextricably linked pics have established themselves as Oscar players.
When I did my previous predictions two weeks ago, one of the questions centered on which performers could be singled out for recognition. Obviously we knew about Cillian Murphy and Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling’s supporting turn, but what else? The answer it seems is Robert Downey Jr. and Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer and maybe America Ferrera for Barbie. Matt Damon is still worth mentioning for Oppenheimer, but Downey Jr. clearly has the most significant buzz.
And… surprise! This is the first write-up where I am including all races covering feature-length motion pictures. I do so at a precarious time. While “Barbenheimer” is viable in many competitions, the release calendar for the remainder of 2023 is unpredictable.
That is, of course, due to the SAG-AFTRA strike and a fear that it could drag on for weeks or months. On Friday, Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers gave up its prime spot opening the Venice Film Festival and moved from September to April 2024. If you believe it’ll be the last movie to do so, think again. There’s already rumors that Dune: Part Two and/or The Color Purple (two potential heavy hitters) could move to ’24. I am keeping all currently scheduled titles in the mix until I hear different. Just know that some of the projects listed below may not be here for long.
Sometimes a trailer can either boost your hopes for a film’s awards potential or dilute it. I could be wrong, but Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers is an example of the latter when its first look was revealed this week. Soon enough we’ll see if my first impression was on the money.
For these initial projections covering all races, I’ll keep it at 25 possibilities for BP and 15 for the other top of the line derbies (the four acting ones and two screenplay contests). For all others, I will list my top 10.
With all that said, let’s get into it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Air (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Maestro (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Barbie (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Napoleon (PR: 16) (+1)
16. May December (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Rustin (PR: 21) (+2)
20. The Piano Lesson (PR: 19) (-1)
21. The Killer (PR: 25) (+4)
22. Ferrari (PR: 24) (+2)
23. BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (-1)
25. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-4)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, Air
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Zendaya, Challengers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andre Holland, The Actor
Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-3)
12. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer
Tilda Swinton, The Killer
Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Jesse Plemons, Killers. of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Richard E. Grant, Saltburn
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Air (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rustin (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Drive Away Dolls (PR: 13) (+2)
12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Fair Play (PR: 11) (-3)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barbie (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)
9. BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+5)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Killer (PR: 15) (+4)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest
2. Anatomy of a Fall
3. Monster
4. About Dry Grasses
5. The Pot-au-Feu
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron
7. Perfect Days
8. The Delinquents
9. Fallen Leaves
10. La Chimera
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Elemental
4. Wish
5. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Other Possibilities:
6. Nimona
7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
8. Robot Dreams
9. The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
3. The Eternal Memory
4. The Mother of All Lies
5. Wild Life
Other Possibilities:
6. 20 Days in Mariupol
7. Every Body
8. Kokomo City
9. Black Ice
10. It Ain’t Over
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. The Color Purple
Other Possibilities:
6. The Killer
7. Poor Things
8. The Zone of Interest
9. Ferrari
10. Asteroid City
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Color Purple
4. Poor Things
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon
7. Chevalier
8. Oppenheimer
9. Wonka
10. Asteroid City
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Past Lives
5. Air
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple
7. Saltburn
8. Maestro
9. The Killer
10. Napoleon
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Poor Things
3. Maestro
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
5. Barbie
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Golda
8. Beau is Afraid
9. The Color Purple
10. Priscilla
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Elemental
5. Past Lives
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
8. Napoleon
9. The Zone of Interest
10. The Killer
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from “The Color Purple”
2. “The Wish” from Wish
3. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
4. “Just Ken” from Barbie
5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady
7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie
9. “Quiet Eyes” From Past Lives
10. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Oppenheimer
4. Poor Things
5. Napoleon
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie
7. Asteroid City
8. The Zone of Interest
9. The Color Purple
10. Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Napoleon
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Spider-Man: Acrossthe Spider-Verse
Other Possibilities:
6. Ferrari
7. The Color Purple
8. Maestro
9. The Zone of Interest
10. The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Oppenheimer
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. The Creator
5. Wonka
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon
7. Killers of the Flower Moon
8. Poor Things
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
10. Spaceman
And that, ladies and gents, gives us the following number of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
The Color Purple
7 Nominations
Past Lives
6 Nominations
Barbie
5 Nominations
Poor Things
4 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall
3 Nominations
Maestro, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, The Boy and the Heron, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Long Day’s Journey Into Night, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, The Pot-au-Feu, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wild Life, Wonka
The first July predictions for the 96th Academy Awards shall be known as the pre Barbie and Oppenheimer edition. They are eagerly awaited efforts from Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan, respectively, that are hoping to become giant blockbusters and awards players. July 21st marks the release date for both. When my next forecast arrives in a couple of weeks, reviews and buzz and financial numbers for the pair will be available.
Since June 25th (my previous update), there’s not been too much news. We have some new trailers including Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir as the iconic reggae singer. Interestingly all the promotional materials are advertising a January 12th premiere. I’m still assuming it will get a December limited release to qualify for contention. It is something worth keeping an eye on. I will say that I found the trailer to be somewhat lackluster. With the release date confusion, I’ve taken it out of my top 25 in BP while keeping Ben-Adir and Lashana Lynch in their acting derbies.
Frequent readers will know that releases dates are always shifting. I’m putting The Piano Lesson back in the mix even though it might not be out until 2024. You’ll see it emerge back into several competitions below.
Festivals are beginning to tease their lineups. Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers will open Venice in September while Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins is tapped for Toronto. Expect plenty more announcement in the coming days and weeks.
In Best Actor, I’ve elevated Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) to #1 over Colman Domingo. That puts Killers atop the charts in Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. We’ll see how long its dominance lasts as other heavy hitters screen over the next few months.
As we await the Barbie and Oppenheimer reactions, here’s my speculation as to where everything stands for the eight top categories.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Air (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)
12. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-2)
15. May December (PR: 15) (E)
16. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+2)
17. Challengers (PR: 17) (E)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Rustin (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Ferrari (PR: 24) (E)
25. The Killer (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
How Do You Live?
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
David Fincher, The Killer
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)
7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 15) (+3)
13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Halle Bailey, The Color Purple
Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon
Claire Foy, Strangers
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mike Faist, Challengers
Josh O’Connor, Challengers
Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saltburn (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Air (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie (moved to Adapted)
Bob Marley: One Love
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-1)
For my last forecast for the month of June, not a lot has changed in my predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. Viola Davis (Air) is back in Supporting Actress over Julianne Moore (May December). In the screenplay contests, I’ve elevated Anatomy of a Fall over May December in the original derby. For Adapted Screenplay, Oppenheimer jumps into the top five over Poor Things. It is worth noting that while I don’t have animated box office behemoth Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse in my BP ten, it does jump seven positions to number 12.
When I do my initial July projections in a couple of weeks, we might have some buzz for potential heavy hitters Oppenheimer and Barbie as they each ready their debuts on July 21st.
We have seen our first peeks at fall contenders such as Challengers, Priscilla, Drive-Away Dolls, and Dumb Money over the past few days via their trailers. Truth be told, this is a slow time for awards prognosticating. This will change before we know it with festival season around the corner.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Poor Things (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)
12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 19) (+7)
13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Barbie (PR: 15) (+1)
15. May December (PR: 12) (-3)
16. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Challengers (PR: 13) (-4)
18. Napoleon (PR: 15) (-3)
19. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 23) (+4)
20. Rustin (PR: 22) (+2)
21. The Killer (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+2)
23. The Book of Clarence (PR: 18) (-5)
24. Ferrari (PR: 25) (+1)
25. How Do You Live? (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Flint Strong (moved to 2024)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E()
Other Possibilities:
6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Todd Haynes, May December
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12 )(E)
13. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (E)
11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mike Faist, Challengers (moved to Supporting Actor)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (E)
14. Josh O’Connor, Challengers (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong
Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Saltburn (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. May December (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)
10. Challengers (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 2) (+1)
12. Rustin (PR: 11) (-1)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (E)
15. Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Monster
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (+2)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
My mid-June look at the major races for the 96th Academy Awards adds the screenplay competitions to the mix. In them, my top picks for Best Picture (Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives) lead their respective writing categories.
Truth be told, we’re in a bit of a lull for significant awards buzz. The Cannes Film Festival is over and the key fall fests (Toronto, Venice, Telluride) are nearly three months out.
In July, we will have two potential heavyweights unveiled in Oppenheimer and Barbie. At this juncture, a lot of my speculation is simply deciding whether certain features are even released in 2023. We might not see Ana DuVernay’s Caste, Steve McQueen’s Blitz, or Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson until 2024. That’s why I currently have them out of the mix.
One item that has materialized in the past couple of weeks is the release of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The acclaimed animated sequel has established itself as at least a candidate for BP consideration. There’s no doubt it’s the current frontrunner for Animated Feature.
You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Air (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro (PR: 12) (+1)
12. May December (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Barbie (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Napoleon (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Asteroid City (PR: 24) (+7)
18. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (+4)
19. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
20. The Killer (PR: 23) (+3)
21. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Rustin (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 20) (-3)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Ferrari (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)
12.Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR:11) (-1)
13. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Steve McQueen, Blitz
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: Not Ranked)
Droped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Jane Levy, A Little Prayer
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 14) (+2)
13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporing Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)
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