Tag: Free Birds

Box Office Predictions: November 15-17

Let’s call this upcoming weekend at the box office “the one between the openings of the Thor and Hunger Games sequels” as only one picture debuts. It’s another sequel – The Best Man Holiday, the follow-up to 1999’s The Best Man. I think it will be assured the #2 spot. You can read my prediction post on it here:

 

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/10/the-best-man-holiday-box-office-prediction/

Thor: The Dark World should easily remain #1 before The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opens the following weekend. I would expect the Marvel megahit to lose over half its business in its sophomore frame. As for other holdovers, I see Free Birds having the smallest drop and remaining in the three spot while comedies Last Vegas and Bad Grandpa fill out the rest of the top five.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five box office:

1. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $39.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

2. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

3. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 19%)

4. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

I’ll have an update on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!

 

Box Office Results: November 8-10

Disney/Marvel’s Thor: The Dark World opened as expected, posting the fourth highest debut of 2013 with $86.1 million. This is right in line with my $85.6M prediction so I’ll give myself a nice pat on the back for this one! Thor benefited from the continued Avengers momentum and the rock solid opening bodes well for next spring’s Captain America sequel.

While I am pleased with my Thor prediction, the same cannot be said for my estimate for About Time, the rom com with Rachel McAdams. I predicted it would earn $12.8 million, but also noted in my post that it could tank. And tank it did with a dismal $5.1 million debut for only 9th place.

As for the rest of the top five, it was Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa second again with $11.3 million (I was right there with $11.2M predicted). The animated Free Birds was in the #3 slot with $11.2 million, just above my $10.4M projection. The all-star comedy Last Vegas was fourth with $11.1 million (I said $11M… pat back again). I was, however, off with the performance of Ender’s Game in its sophomore frame. I predicted the sci-fi pic would hold up reasonably well and make $13.6 million. It dropped to #5 with $10.3M. It’s safe to say this one is now a box office disappointment.

And there’s your results! Be sure to check the blog later today for my prediction post on next weekend’s only newcomer, The Best Man Holiday.

Box Office Predictions: November 1-3

It isn’t often you have a weekend showcasing three new pictures that all stand reasonable shots at opening in first place, but that’s the situation we find ourselves for the first weekend of November 2013. We have the sci-fi epic Ender’s Game, the animated Thanksgiving tale Free Birds, and the all-star comedy Last Vegas all debuting. You could make legit arguments for any one of them being the weekend’s champ. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/free-birds-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/last-vegas-box-office-prediction/

The odds-on favorite is Ender’s Game and I have it easily taking the top spot. However, there is the chance it could flop and allow one of the others to leapfrog it. Free Birds could capitalize on its Thanksgiving subject matter. Last Vegas could cash in on the star power of Robert De Niro, Morgan Freeman, Michael Douglas, and Kevin Kline.

Ultimately, though, I’m not betting against Ender’s Game winning the weekend. As for holdovers, it could be a tight race for the four spot as Gravity will likely experience its typical small decline while last weekend’s #1 Bad Grandpa is poised to fall more than 50%.

Outside of the top five, Oscar front runner 12 Years a Slave expands to 400 theaters and could take in $3.5-$4 million.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Ender’s Game

Predicted Gross: $32.9 million

2. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $21 million

3. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

4. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Free Birds Box Office Prediction

Not enough animated movies this year after Escape from Planet Earth, The Croods, Epic, Monsters University, Despicable Me 2, Turbo, Planes, and Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2? Have no fear – the Thanksgiving themed Free Birds is out Friday.

Featuring the voices of Owen Wilson, Woody Harrelson, and Amy Poehler, Free Birds is the first venture from Reel FX Animation Studios, distributed by Relativity Media. The company was formed to produce modestly budgeted animated titles and Birds comes with a reported $35 million price tag which is small for these types of pics. The best thing Free Birds has going for it is the timing factor. If its halfway decent, this should play pretty well into the Thanksgiving holiday frame and could experience smallish declines from week to week throughout November.

Whether this means it’ll have a big opening is uncertain. The distributor has zero track record so that makes it a little tough to gauge. Anything below $20 million would have to be considered mildly disappointing. It’s rare for any wide release animated feature to fall much below that. A debut in the low 20s range where Turbo and Planes opened seems like a strong possibility. Of course, there’s always the chance this premieres higher than expected, but I’m not prognosticating it.

Free Birds opening weekend prediction: $21 million

For my Ender’s Game prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

For my Last Vegas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/last-vegas-box-office-prediction/