Oscar Watch: Mary Shelley

At the Toronto Film Festival last fall, Saudi Arabian director Haifaa al-Mansour premiered Mary Shelley with the hope of generating some solid critical buzz. The period drama casts Elle Fanning in the title role of the English author who brought Frankenstein to life in 1818. Costars include Douglas Booth, Maisie Williams, Ben Hardy, Bel Powley, and Stephen Dillane.

The picture largely landed with a thud. Scheduled for limited release in domestic theaters this Friday, Shelley is currently at just 33% on Rotten Tomatoes. Ms. Fanning is certainly an up and comer who could get her share of awards worthy roles in the future.

However, Mary Shelley isn’t it. Once it screened up north, the reaction assured its Oscar chances aren’t alive.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Victor Frankenstein Box Office Prediction

Professor X and Harry Potter in a Frankenstein movie? Sounds like an intriguing proposition as Victor Frankenstein opens over the Thanksgiving holiday. Yet serious competition could keep this concoction (with its reported $90 million budget) from solid earnings.

James McAvoy and Daniel Radcliffe star in the gothic horror flick from director Paul McGuigan, known primarily for TV work on “Sherlock” and “Scandal”, among others. As mentioned, the biggest stumbling block could be adult competition in the form of The Hunger Games and critically acclaimed Creed. 

Radcliffe has done this genre before to positive results as his 2012 pic The Woman in Black debuted to $20 million. However, this was right on the heels of his massive Potter success and it opened in a much less competitive frame. One thought is simply having “Frankenstein” in the title might help a bit, but it didn’t mean much for last year’s I, Frankenstein, which made just $8.6 million for its start.

With a lack of any real buzz going for it, I’ll predict Victor Frankenstein is mostly scared away by the box office fire generated by its competitors.

Victor Frankenstein opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $14.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Good Dinosaur prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/18/the-good-dinosaur-box-office-prediction/

For my Creed prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/19/creed-box-office-prediction/

I, Frankenstein Box Office Prediction

Aaron Eckhart stars in I, Frankenstein which opens this coming Friday and is the only wide release hitting theaters next weekend. This is likely not a matter of other studios being scared that I, Frankenstein is going to be a monster hit (pun intended). This is more due to the fact that four movies opened over MLK weekend and there’s still plenty of holiday leftovers making money.

Frankenstein‘s release date has been pushed back several times. It was originally scheduled to open almost a year ago. This reimagining of the familiar story that originated with Mary Shelley’s novel and has seen numerous film incarnations doesn’t inspire much excitement from its middling TV spots. Furthermore, while Eckhart is a well-respected actor, he’s not a box office draw.

The film’s best hope for box office success hinges on the fact that it’s got the word Frankenstein in the title. That might not get it far enough along to justify its $68 million budget. On the same weekend last year, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters opened to a decent $19.6 million. Lionsgate would probably be pleased with a similar result here.

The possibility of I, Frankenstein getting past $20 million out of the gate is reasonable, but I don’t think it’ll reach the total that those witch hunters accomplished a year ago. Therefore – I, Todd Thatcher, believe I, Frankenstein is headed toward a so-so premiere.

I, Frankenstein opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million