When I did my first ranked Oscar predictions in the Best Actress race on August 27, 2020 – I had Jennifer Hudson’s portrayal of Aretha Franklin in Respect ranked fifth. The biopic ended up getting delayed due to COVID. Now it’s out on Friday (August 13). My initial two weeks of Academy rankings for 2021 has had Hudson pegged in fourth while not including the film itself in the 25 possibilities for Best Picture.
The review embargo lifted this evening and… well, I might be onto something. The prevalent theory has been that Respect could be a one race player in the major categories. This is similar to what we saw two years ago when Renee Zellweger took Best Actress as Judy Garland in Judy and last year when Andra Day was nominated for The United States vs. Billie Holiday.
Early critical reaction is mixed though Hudson is being widely praised. It was 15 years ago that the former American Idol singer won gold in Supporting Actress for her show stopping work in Dreamgirls. She hasn’t been on the Academy’s radar since. Respect, as anticipated, could easily change that. Nothing in the write-ups indicates this will a Picture hopeful. Same goes for the supporting cast. I have had Audra McDonald in the lower rungs of possibilities in supporting for the past two weeks. Don’t expect to see her name when I update my forecast on Thursday.
Costume Design is another possibility, but don’t be surprised at all to see Hudson as the lone representation here. And that’s far from guaranteed. There’s a lot of leading performances yet to be seen that could contend: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Jodie Comer (The Last Duel), Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Nicole Kidman (Being theRicardos), Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Kristen Stewart (Spencer), and Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) are just some. Emilia Jones (CODA) and Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World) represent two turns already seen that could find themselves in the mix.
Bottom line: Hudson is absolutely more than just a little bit of a factor in this race, but we have to see what transpires over festival season and the rest of the year. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
As we await film festivals that will shed light on many of the pictures mentioned below, today brings us my second weekly outlook on the major Oscar categories.
So what’s happened since last Thursday? That House of Gucci trailer came out and it didn’t do anything to dissuade my feeling that it’s a contender. In fact, while I shouldn’t use trailers to judge, it was enough for me to put Jared Leto in my final five (taking out Idris Elba for The Harder They Fall).
In other developments:
A Hero is in my top 10 for Best Picture over Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast. The film also is in my projections for Original Screenplay to the detriment of Blue Bayou.
CODA (which I was very tempted this week to put in BP) makes the Adapted Screenplay cut over Dune.
The Director, Actress, Actor, and Supporting Actress fields remain the same – with some movement in the rankings.
By this time next week, we should have a good idea of where Jennifer Hudson’s performance in Respect stands since it releases next week. It remains in my five at spot four.
Finally, I didn’t have Matt Damon in Stillwater listed in my top 15 possibilities last week. Based on the film’s subpar box office performance and some comments that landed Damon in hot water, I don’t anticipate him surfacing at any point.
Check out all the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Dune (PR: 5)
6. Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
8. Mass (PR: 7)
9. West Side Story (PR: 8)
10. A Hero (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. CODA (PR: 12)
12. Belfast (PR: 9)
13. The French Dispatch (PR: 14)
14. Spencer (PR: 15)
15. Cyrano (PR: 17)
16. King Richard (PR: 20)
17. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 16)
18. Flee (PR: 13)
19. The Humans (PR: 18)
20. Blue Bayou (PR: 19)
21. The Last Duel (PR: 21)
22. The Worst Person in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
24. In the Heights (PR: 23)
25. Annette (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Dear Evan Hansen
Last Night in Soho
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2)
4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 7)
8. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Fran Kranz, Mass (PR: 11)
11. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 14)
12. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 8)
13. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 12)
14. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 15)
15. Joe Wright, Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3)
3. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 7)
7. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 8)
8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 12)
11. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 11)
12. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 13)
13. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9)
14. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 15)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 14)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
7. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 6)
8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 8)
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 11)
11. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 7)
12. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 13)
13. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 15)
14. Michael B. Jordan, A Journal for Jordan (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2)
3. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 4)
4. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 5)
5. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
7. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 6)
8. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 7)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog (PR: 9)
11. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 13)
12. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 11)
13. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 14)
15. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Regina King, The Harder They Fall
Sally Hawkins, Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 3)
4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6)
7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (PR: 7)
8. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall (PR: 5)
9. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 9)
11. Bradley Whitford, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Ben Mendelsohn, Cyrano (PR: 10)
13. Adam Driver, The Last Duel (PR: 12)
14. Simon Helberg, Annette (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Brendan Gleeson, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Al Pacino, House of Gucci
David Alvarez, West Side Story
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soggy Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mass (PR: 1)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4)
5. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 8)
7. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10)
8. Spencer (PR: 7)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 9)
11. Blue Bayou (PR: 5)
12. Belfast (PR: 6)
13. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. King Richard (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted Screenplay)
I can’t help myself. I keep doing my Oscar predictions earlier and earlier each year. Today marks the first edition of my ranked forecasts in the 8 biggest races: Picture, Director, the four acting competitions, and the two screenplay contests.
It probably stands to reason that the sooner you do projections – the more inaccurate they might be. Oh but it’s so very fun to speculate! I do like to put my initial rankings up before the Toronto, Venice, and Telluride Film Festivals make the picture more clear and we are only about a month from that. Those events will bring us early buzz on The Power of the Dog, Dune, Spencer, The Last Duel, The Humans, Parallel Mothers, Belfast, Dear Evan Hansen, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Last Night in Soho, and more.
This post comes about three weeks ahead of when I did this in 2020. That year, to say the least, was hard to figure out. In fact, many of the pictures and performers I had in my 2020 inaugural rankings were moved back to 2021 due to COVID delays. Think Dune, The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Respect, C’Mon C’Mon, Annette, and The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
So how did my first ranked predictions from 2020 pan out? My Best Picture guesstimates yielded three of the eventual nominees: winner Nomadland, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Nomadland started out of the gate at #2 (behind Mank). Three other contenders were listed under Other Possibilities – The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Minari. Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal were not mentioned.
2 of the 5 director nominees were correctly identified: winner Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) and David Fincher (Mank). None of the other hopefuls (Lee Isaac Chung for Minari, Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman, or Another Round‘s Thomas Vinterberg) were even in Other Possibilities.
In Best Actress, I initially identified 2 – winner Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) were Other Possibilities while Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman didn’t score a listing.
As for Actor, winner Anthony Hopkins (The Father) and Gary Oldman (Mank) made my first cut. I incorrectly had Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) projected here instead of Supporting Actor (which he won). **This is a good time to remind you all that some of the acting contenders thought to be in lead right now will switch to supporting and vice versa. As further evidence, I had Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey) predicted in supporting, but he contended here. I did not yet have Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) or Steven Yeun (Minari) on my radar.
Two Supporting Actress players were correctly called: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) and Olivia Colman (The Father) with Amanda Seyfried (Mank) in Other Possibilities. No mention for the winner Youn Yun-jung in Minari or Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.
Per above, Daniel Kaluuya’s work in Judas was slotted in lead, but he emerged victorious here. My Supporting Actor picks did get 2 of 5: Lakeith Stanfield in Judas and Sacha Baron Cohen for Chicago 7. The two others (Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami and Paul Raci in Sound of Metal) went unnoticed at the early stage.
Just one nominee in Original Screenplay got the initial mention – Chicago 7. I did have 3 others (winner Promising Young Woman, Judas, Minari) down for Other Possibilities while Sound of Metal wasn’t mentioned. And in Adapted Screenplay, I only rightly projected Nomadland. Winner The Father, One Night in Miami, and The White Tiger were other possibilities with no mention for Borat.
Whew. OK. I’m not going through all for 2019. However, I will say my results were better two years ago with my first picks (evidence of the uncertainty of last year). The quick rundown: I got 6 of the 9 nominees in Best Picture and identified the remaining three in other possibilities. In Director, it was 4 out of 5. For Actress – 4 for 5 with the other nominee listed sixth. Actor – 3 for 5 with the two others as possibilities. The weak spot was Supporting Actress – just 1 out of 5 with 2 others as possibilities. 2 for 5 in Supporting Actor with 2 others as possibilities. 3 for 5 initially in both screenplay races.
And now we come to 2021. Will I look back next year and be happy with the accuracy or shake my head? Hopefully a mix (that’s probably the best case scenario). In about two months, I will start predictions for all categories covering feature films and whittle BP from 25 to 15 hopefuls with all others going from a projected 15 to 10.
There already was some news from when I penned my early and unranked predictions last week. David O. Russell’s Canterbury Glass, with an all star cast led by Christian Bale and Margot Robbie, has reportedly moved to 2022. It was mentioned in numerous categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor – John David Washington) and it now waits its turn until next year. Same story for Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins and Blonde from Andrew Dominik.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Nightmare Alley
5. Dune
6. Soggy Bottom
7. Mass
8. West Side Story
9. Belfast
10. Don’t Look Up
Other Possibilities:
11. A Hero
12. CODA
13. Flee
14. The French Dispatch
15. Spencer
16. Tick Tick… Boom!
17. Cyrano
18. The Humans
19. Blue Bayou
20. King Richard
21. The Last Duel
22. Dear Evan Hansen
23. In the Heights
24. Last Night in Soho
25. Annette
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
3. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
5. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom
7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
8. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
10. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
11. Fran Kranz, Mass
12. Sian Heder, CODA
13. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
14. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
15. Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
8. Emilia Jones, CODA
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
11. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
12. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
13. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
14. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
15. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Will Smith, King Richard
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci
5. Amir Jadidi, A Hero
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!
7. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey
8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
11. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
12. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom
13. Adam Driver, Annette
14. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
15. Nicolas Cage, Pig
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
3. Martha Plimpton, Mass
4. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
5. Marlee Matlin, CODA
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Negga, Passing
7. Olga Merediz, In the Heights
8. Regina King, The Harder They Fall
9. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog
10. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley
11. Judi Dench, Belfast
12. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho
13. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
14. Audra McDonald, Respect
15. Sally Hawkins, Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom
2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
3. Jason Isaacs, Mass
4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans
5. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall
Other Possibilities:
6. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth
7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
Last year’s Best Actress race was one of the most unpredictable and competitive in ages. Five different performers took the Oscar, Golden Globes (since they split between Drama and Musical/Comedy), SAG, and Critics Choice Award.
And, while it’s very early, 2021 appears that it could be a humdinger of a contest yet again. This is the final acting derby I am doing projections on in these initial forecasts. By far, Best Actress was the hardest one to whittle down and there were even potential contenders beyond the 15 listed that I believe could easily get into the mix.
Speaking of those earlier posts, you can peruse them here if you didn’t catch them:
When I did my inaugural 2020 posts in Actress, I correctly identified 2 of the 5 eventual nominees: winner Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). Carey Mulligan was named in Other Possibilities while I did not yet call out Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) or Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman).
We have arrived at part III of my recaps of the summer seasons that came 30, 20, and 10 years ago. That means 2011 is upon us. If you missed my sizzling throwbacks to 1991 and 2001, you can find them here:
As is tradition, I will recount the top 10 hits as well as other notable features and some flops in a season where moviegoers bid a fond farewell to their iconic wizard:
Let’s get to it, yes?
10. Bridesmaids
Domestic Gross: $169 million
Kristin Wiig made one of the most successful jumps from SNL to movie stardom in this critically hailed pic that also earned Melissa McCarthy her silver screen breakout and even an Oscar nomination. It might not be the highest grossing comedy on here, but it’s definitely still the most talked about.
9. The Help
Domestic Gross: $169 million
Based on Kathryn Stockett’s bestseller, the 1960s set period piece from Tate Taylor brought the book’s readers and many others to the multiplex. Four Oscar nods followed including Best Picture and a Supporting Actress victory for Octavia Spencer.
8. Captain America: The First Avenger
Domestic Gross: $176 million
The Marvel Cinematic Universe’s first big branch out occurred during this summer where we would get our first glimpse at this OG avenger in the form of Chris Evans and another one who sits at the throne of spot #6. The sequels actually improved on what we see here, but the Captain gets rolling with this.
7. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Domestic Gross: $176 million
Rupert Wyatt’s reboot of the franchise is deservedly better regarded than Tim Burton’s re-imagining that transpired in 2001. Debuting the fantastic motion capture work of Andy Serkis, this would spawn two follow-ups that also pleased audiences and critics and did considerable monkey business.
6. Thor
Domestic Gross: $181 million
Chris Hemsworth’s Asgardian heartthrob hammered into the public consciousness alongside Natalie Portman and Anthony Hopkins and managed $5 million more box office bucks than the Captain. The third sequel is currently in production.
5. Cars 2
Domestic Gross: $191 million
Despite grossing nearly $200 million, this Pixar sequel is not one of the studio’s most fondly remembered vehicles with just a 40% Rotten Tomatoes rating. A third Cars did zoom into theaters six years later.
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Domestic Gross: $241 million
With a reported budget of $379 million, Johnny Depp’s fourth headlining of the franchise still sports the largest price tag of all time. The actor’s final participation in the series would come in 2017 with Disney still looking to reboot it without their signature player.
3. The Hangover Part II
Domestic Gross: $254 million
Crowds were still clamoring for the drunken exploits of Bradley Copper, Ed Helms, and Zach Galifianakis. Critics weren’t near as kind to part II, but audiences didn’t begin to tire of the hijinks until part III two years later.
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Domestic Gross: $352 million
Michael Bay’s third saga of the Autobots and Decepticons marks Shia LaBeouf’s last appearance in the franchise and includes drop-ins from acting heavyweights John Malkovich and Frances McDormand. Mark Wahlberg would take over starring duties three years later.
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Domestic Gross: $381 million
After nearly a decade of enchanting kids and their parents alike, the franchise stemming from J.K. Rowling’s beloved novels received a fittingly massive send-off with this billion dollar plus worldwide earner.
Now for other noteworthy titles from the summer:
X-Men: First Class
Domestic Gross: $146 million
Bryan Singer’s handed over directorial reigns to Matthew Vaughn for this reinvigorating reboot of the series that introduced the younger versions of Charles Xavier, Magneto, and Mystique in the bodies of James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, and Jennifer Lawrence. Numerous sequels of varying quality followed.
The Smurfs
Domestic Gross: $142 million
Sony Pictures wasn’t blue about the financial returns for this half live-action/half animated adaptation of the popular comics and animated series. A sequel came in 2013.
Super 8
Domestic Gross: $127 million
In between Star Trek pics and before rebooting Star Wars, J.J. Abrams helmed this sci-fi original which paid tribute to the Spielberg efforts of the 1980s. Critics gave it their stamp of approval and it’s notable for one heckuva train crash sequence.
Horrible Bosses
Domestic Gross: $117 million
This raunchy comedy about workers exacting revenge on their wretched superiors showed us a whole different side to Jennifer Aniston and spawned a 2014 sequel.
Crazy, Stupid, Love
Domestic Gross: $84 million
Before their collaboration on La La Land earned lots of Oscar nods five years later, Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling teamed up for this rom com with Steve Carell and Julianne Moore that exceeded expectations with audiences and many critics.
Midnight in Paris
Domestic Gross: $56 million
It was a different time 10 years ago for Woody Allen, who scored his last big hit with this fantastical comedy starring Owen Wilson. Woody would win the Oscar for Original Screenplay and it landed three additional nominations including Picture and Director.
The Tree of Life
Domestic Gross: $13 million
Terrence Malick’s epic philosophical drama won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival and was nominated for Best Picture, Director, and Cinematography at the Academy Awards. Not your typical summer fare, but it certainly had reviews on its side.
And now for some titles that didn’t meet expectations commercially, critically, or both:
Green Lantern
Domestic Gross: $116 million
Five years before he entered the comic book flick pantheon with Deadpool, Ryan Reynolds didn’t have as much luck with this critically drubbed flop. Even the star himself has taken to calling it a waste of time for viewers.
Cowboys & Aliens
Domestic Gross: $100 million
Coming off the huge Iron Man pics, Jon Favreau cast James Bond (Daniel Craig) and Indiana Jones (Harrison Ford) in this space western that didn’t impress crowds or critics and earned considerably less than its budget domestically.
Mr. Popper’s Penguins
Domestic Gross: $68 million
Audiences were mostly cool to Jim Carrey’s treatment of the popular late 30s children’s book though it did manage to top its $55 million budget. It probably would have made far more during the star’s box office heyday.
Spy Kids 4-D: All the Time in the World
Domestic Gross: $38 million
A decade after Robert Rodriguez kicked the kiddie franchise off to great results, part 4 marked a low mark for the series.
Larry Crowne
Domestic Gross: $35 million
The star power of Tom Hanks (who also directed) and Julia Roberts couldn’t elevate this rom com from a subpar showing (critics weren’t kind either). This is largely a forgotten entity on both actor’s filmographies.
Conan the Barbarian
Domestic Gross: $21 million
Before becoming known to the masses as Aquaman, Jason Momoa couldn’t fill the shoes of Arnold Schwarzenegger in this bomb that couldn’t swim close to its $90 million budget.
And that does it, folks! I’ll have recaps of the summers of 1992, 2002, and 2012 up for your enjoyment next season!
Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch was supposed to premiere at Cannes in 2020 before the COVID-19 pandemic altered that plan. One year later, the auteur’s latest has screened in the French Riviera and it’s probably the most eagerly awaited debut of the festival. The film boasts an ensemble that is to be expected from the filmmaker and it reads like a who’s who of his frequent collaborators and several other previous awards nominees: Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Timothee Chalamet, Frances McDormand, Lyna Khoudri, Jeffrey Wright, Mathieu Amalric, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson, Elisabeth Moss, Liev Schrieber, Edward Norton, Willem Dafoe, Saoirse Ronan, Christoph Waltz, Jason Schwartzman (who shares a story credit with Anderson and others), Bob Balaban, and Anjelica Huston. Yeah, I know.
Early reviews indicate that this anthology (out stateside on October 22) is a loving ode to journalism and that could be right up the alley of Academy voters. Yet some buzz is also indicating this isn’t among his strongest efforts. One thing seems certain: Dispatch is a visual feast that should easily assert itself in several technical categories. That certainly includes Production Design, Costume Design, Alexandre Desplat’s Original Score, Cinematography, and perhaps Makeup and Hairstyling (though that race in particular could be packed this year).
What do all those races have in common? They were all nominations received for Anderson’s 2014 pic The Grand Budapest Hotel, which scored nine mentions (winning for Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Score, and Production Design). Don’t be surprised if this is a major hopeful in those same categories.
As for the massive amount of actors, here’s a fun fact: no performance from an Anderson production has ever been nominated. That seems hard to believe, but his casts often make it tricky to pick a favorite or two to mount a campaign for. Del Toro, Chalamet, Wright, and McDormand have been singled out in some write-ups already. I suspect none will emerge to make the Oscar cut. Chalamet has hope in lead actor for Dune and the same can be said for McDormand with The Tragedy of Macbeth (time will tell).
Now to the biggest derbies. Will The French Dispatch manage Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay nods? The latter seems most possible. And while some European chatter indicates the other two could be out of reach, it’s important to remember that it took a little time for Budapest Hotel to become the Academy player that it turned out to be.
Bottom line: the future is cloudy for Dispatch when it comes to the most high-profile competitions. Some Academy love down the line in the tech races already seems highly likely. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Blogger’s Note (04/23): After ever more careful consideration, I have decided to change my Best Actress prediction again. I am not reverting back to Carey Mulligan instead of Viola Davis. Did I mention this is a tough category??
Blogger’s Note (04/21): After careful consideration, I have decided to change my Best Actress prediction from my original Monday (04/19) post. Carey Mulligan is out in favor of Viola Davis… no other predictions have changed.
And here we go! After 8 months of lots and lots of speculation, it’s time to make my final picks in the races covering feature length films. I have finished up my 33 posts covering the nominees in Best Picture, Director and the four acting races.
The 93rd Academy Awards airs this Sunday evening. A couple of quick note before delving into the forecasts on the 20 categories. There are surefire frontrunners in a lot of competitions this year and that includes Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress (as well as most technical races). The real drama lies in the two leading acting competitions, especially Best Actress.
For each race, I will name my predicted winner and what I believe to be the runner-up. Without further adieu, let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis: Nomadland has taken all the precursors it needs to: Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA. I would say that in most recent years, there’s been some drama in Best Picture. Not this year. If there’s any chance of an upset, it could be Minari or Promising Young Woman. For a Green Book type of upset, that could be The Trial of the Chicago 7 and that’s what I’m picking as my #2. Yet let me be clear: anything not named Nomadland taking the biggest prize would be a huge upset at this point.
Predicted Winner: Nomadland
Runner-Up: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Director
Nominees: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
Analysis: For reasons expressed above, it’s hard to imagine anyone other than Chloe Zhao getting the gold. She’s won all the precursors and it’s difficult to even name a runner-up (I’ll go Fincher I suppose).
Predicted Winner: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Runner-Up: David Fincher, Mank
Best Actress
Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Analysis: Ugh. This is literally the most head scratching race of all. There is no favorite as the major precursors have split. Andra Day, in an upset, took the Globe. Carey Mulligan won Critics Choice. Viola Davis is the SAG recipient. Frances Mcdormand is the BAFTA victor. All of those precursors have a good or very good record of predicting the eventual Academy winner. Confused yet? Me too.
Vanessa Kirby is the least likely to take this and it’s not out of the question that she could. Day’s omission from SAG makes it tough for me to predict her. So we are left with Davis, McDormand, and Mulligan and they all could certainly be making a podium trip. With Nomadland almost surely taking Pic and Director and McDormand’s BAFTA win, it’s tempting to pick her. However, she’s won twice already and the last time was just three years ago. Promising Young Woman did very well in grabbing 5 nominations. Mulligan is a highly respected actress who’s only been nominated once before and this is a showy role that got a lot of attention. Davis’s SAG victory makes me lean toward her, but the Academy not giving Rainey a Best Picture nod gives me some pause.
So… my final decision is Mulligan… with zero degree of confidence. There’s great narratives for McDormand, Mulligan, and Davis so roll the dice with your pick and see what happens!
Predicted Winner: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Runner-Up: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Actor
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)
Analysis: For the duration of the precursor season, the late Chadwick Boseman appeared on a glide path to Oscar coronation. That’s until Anthony Hopkins took the BAFTA and made this race considerably more interesting. I will also say that Riz Ahmed has his supporters, but this is a two person race. I do truly believe Hopkins has a very good shot, but I ultimately just can’t pick against Boseman.
Predicted Winner: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Runner-Up: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
Analysis: This was a wide open category for a while, but Yuh-jung Youn’s recent victories at SAG and BAFTA came at the right time. There is upset potential from both Maria Bakalova and the eight times nominated and never won Glenn Close, but Youn is the safest pick.
Predicted Winner: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
Runner-Up: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Analysis: Daniel Kaluuya has steamrolled through precursors and this is definitely the easiest pick of the acting derbies. I’m not even the least bit worried about his costar Lakeith Stanfield splitting votes.
Predicted Winner: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Runner-Up: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (I guess)
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis: If Mulligan doesn’t win Best Actress (which is quite possible), Promising should still walk away with a win here. Minari and Trial are threats, but feeling pretty confident with this one.
Predicted Winner: Promising Young Woman
Runner-Up: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The White Tiger
Analysis: While Nomadland looks like a shoo-in in Picture, I could see The Father threatening it in this race. I’m really tempted to go with it, but I’m sticking with Nomadland. Don’t be surprised if The Father takes this though.
Predicted Winner: Nomadland
Runner-Up: The Father
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Onward, Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Soul, Wolfwalkers
Analysis: Not wasting much word count here. Pixar is dominant in this category. Soul has dominated the other shows.
Predicted Winner: Soul
Runner-Up: Wolfwalkers
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: Collective, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Time
Analysis: My Octopus Teacher has surprisingly emerged as the favorite due to precursor wins. There’s certainly a narrative for its win as the other more serious selections could split votes. That said, while Octopus is the safe pick, I’m going for a bit of an upset with the acclaimed Time. For those filling out ballots for work and friend pools, Octopus might be the way to go.
Predicted Winner: Time
Runner-Up: My Octopus Teacher
Best International Feature Film
Nominees: Another Round, Better Days, Collective, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Quo Vadis, Aida?
Analysis: It’s going to be Another Round. It’s wrapped up the precursors it needs and it would be foolish to pick against it.
Predicted Winner: Another Round
Runner-Up: Quo Vadis, Aida?
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis: Mank could be and should be a trendy upset choice, but Nomadland is most likely to grab this.
Predicted Winner: Nomadland
Runner-Up: Mank
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio
Analysis: Another sturdy frontrunner here with Ma Rainey.
Predicted Winner: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Runner-Up: Emma
Best Film Editing
Nominees: The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis: For some time, it looked like this might be the one award Trial would receive. And then Sound of Metal started winning the big precursors. Sound is probably a little ahead by most standards, but I’m still leaning Trial for its flashier editing. This is essentially a coin flip in my view.
Predicted Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Runner-Up: Sound of Metal
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Pinocchio
Analysis: Another tech race where Rainey seems way out in front.
Predicted Winner: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Runner-Up: Pinocchio
Best Original Score
Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul
Analysis: Like in Animated Feature, Soul has killed it in the precursors. This is not a tough choice.
Predicted Winner: Soul
Runner-Up: Minari
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7, “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, “lo si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
Analysis: This is a tough choice. I’ve had this nagging feeling that if “Husavik” got in, it could definitely win and I still feel that way. Then there’s Diane Warren who’s behind “lo si”. She’s been nominated 12 times without a win and the overdue factor is real. “Speak Now” is probably the safe choice. I really believe that we could see a surprise here, but I’ll reluctantly stick with Leslie Odom Jr. getting an Oscar for the One Night in Miami track.
Predicted Winner: “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
Runner-Up: “lo si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead
Best Production Design
Nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet
Analysis: This is absolutely where Mank should win and that means I think it goes 1/10.
Predicted Winner: Mank
Runner-Up: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Sound
Nominees: Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal
Analysis: Sound of Metal has had this wrapped up for some time. Plain and simple.
Predicted Winner: Sound of Metal
Runner-Up: Soul
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Tenet
Analysis: This appears to be a two picture battle between The Midnight Sky and Tenet, but the latter seems to have moved fairly comfortably in front.
Predicted Winner: Tenet
Runner-Up: The Midnight Sky
That means I believe the following pictures will walk away with these numbers in terms of victories:
4 Wins
Nomadland
3 Wins
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2 Wins
Promising Young Woman, Soul
1 Win
Another Round, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, One Night in Miami, Sound of Metal, Tenet, Time, The Trial of the Chicago 7
For the 8 Best Picture hopefuls, I’m projecting that only The Father will go home completely empty-handed (though it could certainly happen to Trial as well).
I will, of course, have a recap up with my thoughts on the show and how I did shortly after Sunday’s ceremony. Stay tuned!
Carey Mulligan’s performance in Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman wraps up my Case Of posts for the five Best Actress contenders. If you missed the first four, they can be read here:
Earning her second nomination following 2009’s An Education, Mulligan’s work here was part of Promising‘s five nominations. She’s managed nods in all the major precursors (with the surprising exception of BAFTA) and won the Critics Choice Award.
The Case Against Carey Mulligan
I predicted Mulligan to take the Golden Globe and she lost to Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday). I predicted her for the SAG Award and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) took the prize. The wide open Best Actress race is hard to pin down.
The Verdict
Mulligan absolutely could win next week, but so could do Davis, Day, or McDormand. I’ll be going back and forth on this one until I make my final predictions on Wednesday.
My Case Of posts will continue with Steven Yeun in Minari…
The fourth contender is up in what has become the most fascinating competition at the Oscars (Best Actress) with Frances McDormand in Nomadland. If you missed coverage on the first three (Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman), they’re here:
She’s starring in the Oscar favorite for Best Picture and Director with one of her most acclaimed roles. That’s saying a lot. Nomadland marks McDormand’s sixth nomination overall. She’s been nominated thrice in supporting for Mississippi Burning, Almost Famous, and North Country where’s she 0 for 3. However, in her previous Best Actress plays, she’s 2 for 2 with Fargo and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Just this weekend McDormand took the award at BAFTA and there is a 9/10 Oscar match from 2010-2019. Added to that is the history she would make. By taking three Best Actress honors, she would become only the second woman ever to do so (Katherine Hepburn received 4).
The Case Against Frances McDormand
This is as unpredictable a race as it gets. While McDormand’s BAFTA is a sure sign that’s she in this, other precursors have not followed suit. Viola Davis is the SAG recipient. Andra Day took the Golden Globes and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) is the Critics Choice honoree. All stand reasonable chances and there could be a feeling that McDormand has been there and done that (twice). In an interesting stat, only one Best Actress winner in the 21st century has seen her film take the big prize (Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby).
The Verdict
The BAFTA vaults McDormand into even more serious consideration to take Oscar #3 in a race that seems to be coming down to the wire.
My Case Of posts will continue with Gary Oldman in Mank…
The road for Nomadland to Best Picture coronation at the Oscars keeps rolling today thanks to the BAFTAs (the United Kingdom’s version of the Academy Awards). Meanwhile, the Actor and Actress derbies got a bit more interesting while the supporting players continued its recent narrative.
Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland won Best Film and Director in what has become a common theme. However, Frances McDormand’s victory in Actress is her first major precursor in an Oscar race that has truly become a tossup. To break it down, the four significant precursors have all produced different results: McDormand for BAFTA, Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) at SAG, Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) at Critics Choice, and Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) at the Globes. Bottom line: it’s going to be quite a chore to make a final predictions for the Academy’s ceremony two weeks from today.
Chadwick Boseman’s work in Ma Rainey had swept all the precursors, but that was interrupted this afternoon by Anthony Hopkins in The Father. This is not a huge upset since Hopkins is British royalty. Yet it does establish him as the surefire runner-up to Boseman and a potential threat.
The supporting races followed the SAG path with Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) in Supporting Actress and Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) continuing his sweep in Supporting Actor. Both can be considered favorites at the Oscars (especially the latter).
In the screenplay competition, The Father took Adapted over Nomadland in what could be a two picture race in two weeks. Promising Young Woman took Original honors (besting The Trial of the Chicago 7, which came up empty across the pond). Promising also took home Best British Film.
Unlike the other precursors, the BAFTAs cover most of the down ticket categories and I’ll simply say that all the victors below stand decent to very strong chances at repeating at the Oscars:
Animated Film: Soul
Documentary: My Octopus Teacher
Film Not in the English Language: Another Round
Cinematography: Nomadland
Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Editing: Sound of Metal
Makeup & Hair: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Original Score: Soul
Production Design: Mank
Sound: Sound of Metal
Special Visual Effects: Tenet
My final Oscar predictions will be before you know it! Stay tuned…
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