December 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Hollywood is hoping for merry pre-Christmas tidings with Avatar: Fire and Ash in position to rule the charts. There’s other potential new gifts for multiplexes in the form of psychological thriller The Housemaid and the double animated offerings of biblical tale David and fourquel The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants. You can locate my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:

The first two Avatar features from newly minted billionaire James Cameron each grossed $2B+ worldwide. Fire looks to keep up pace. I have it under $100 million for its first stateside weekend but with about $36million less than 2022 predecessor The Way of Water.

Placement for slots 2-4 could be unpredictable. Based on a buzzy bestseller, The Housemaid with Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried has breakout potential and should serve as shrewd counter programming from blue creatures and family fare. I have it in second.

Faith-based crowds could cause David to top SpongeBob. I have the former in the low 20s with the latter in mid to higher teens. Both look to debut decently and hold impressively over Christmas. Current champ Zootopia 2 should follow in an animated bottom heavy top 5.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $98 million

2. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $21.9 million

3. David

Predicted Gross: $20.8 million

4. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

5. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

Box Office Results (December 12-14)

Zootopia 2 returned to rule the charts with $25.8 million in its third frame, a bit ahead of my $23.6 million call. The Disney sequel sits at $258 million domestically and has already topped $1 billion globally.

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $19.3 million. The 70% drop was, as expected, steep. However, it didn’t fall as far as my $15.7 million projection suggested. The horror sequel is near nine digits at $95 million.

Wicked: For Good was third with $8.5 million, in range with my $8.2 million prediction and it has conjured up $312 million in four weeks.

Hindi-language action pic Dhurandhar was #4 and I did not have it in the top 5. With $3.4 million, it had the highest per-screen-average of all features (nearly $10k per venue) and brought its earnings to $7.7 million after two weeks.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was fifth with only a 32% decline. With $2.3 million in its fifth weekend, the overall gross is $59 million. I also didn’t have it in the leading quintet.

That’s because I slightly overestimated Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution at $2.4 million and it made $2 million in sixth. The two-week take is $14 million.

Finally, poorly reviewed dramedy Ella McCay from veteran filmmaker James L. Brooks languished in seventh with $2 million. I was slightly a little more generous at $2.7 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 12-14 Box Office Predictions

Romantic dramedy Ella McKay hopes to find some viewers in a quiet weekend before potential holiday heavy hitters like Avatar: Fire and Ash, David, and The Housemaid arrive. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Ella here:

Like December’s first frame, the battle for #1 should be between current champ Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 and Zootopia 2. I was wrong about what would come out on top to start off the month (more on that below). However, Freddy’s could experience a similar mid to high 70s percentage decline that its predecessor did in 2023. Zootopia‘s should be less than 50% which should give it the win. Take that for it’s worth because I thought Freddy’s would open in second.

Wicked: For Good should stay in third with McKay in lower single digits for a fourth place showing or lower. It’s even possible that the 25th anniversary screenings of How the Grinch Stole Christmas or 45th anniversary showing of The Shining could make the top 5.

I’ll leave them out and here’s how I envision the chart shaking out:

1. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $23.6 million

2. Five Night at Freddy’s 2

Predicted Gross: $15.7 million

3. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

4. Ella McCay

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million

5. Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

Box Office Results (December 5-7)

I incorrectly thought Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 would suffer a far steeper drop-off from its predecessor which premiered at $80 million. While its $64 million haul was certainly less, it was far ahead of my $36.5 million estimate and ahead of expectations. Don’t be surprised if a third reservation is made by the studio.

That left Zootopia 2 in second place with $43.4 million, in line with my $43.1 million call. The Disney sequel has amassed $220 million since its Thanksgiving holiday start.

Wicked: For Good tumbled 72% to third in its third outing with $17.3 million. I was more generous at $23.2 million. This sequel is nearing $300 million at $297 million.

Anime offering Jujutsu Kaisen: Exeuction kept a hot streak going for the genre with $10 million, surpassing my $6.4 million prediction. Per above, expect a large drop in its sophomore play.

Finally, Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was fifth with $3.4 million (I said $3.6 million) for $55 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 5-7 Box Office Predictions

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 looks to challenge Zootopia 2 for box office supremacy as anime offering Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution is also unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers for the post Thanksgiving frame here:

I am not sold on Freddy’s 2 despite its predecessor’s sizzling $80 million start two years ago. As I explained in my write-up, I suspect a decent portion of its fanbase won’t turn up and my mid to high 30s take gives it runner-up status.

As for Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution, the genre has been on fire lately but this pre-screening of the TV show’s forthcoming third season may settle for fourth place and mid single digits.

Considering my reservations about Freddy’s, that would leave Zootopia 2 in first after an impressive premiere (more on that below). A mid 50s drop should be on the way.

Wicked: For Good‘s third frame decline could be even more pronounced for third position while Now You See Me: Now You Don’t should complete the top five in a sequel heavy lineup.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $43.1 million

2. Five Nights at Freddy’s 2

Predicted Gross: $36.5 million

3. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $23.2 million

4. Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (November 28-30)

Zootopia 2, as projected, easily managed the second best Turkey weekend opening behind Disney’s Moana 2 from last year. It also scored huge in China which helped contribute to it having the best animated worldwide debut of all time and the fourth best overall. With $100.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $158.8 million domestically since Wednesday, it did fall below my respective takes of $112.4 million and $184.3 million. Admittedly I took the over.

I should’ve taken the under on Wicked: For Good. A year ago, part 1 eased a mere 28% in its Thanksgiving sophomore outing. The follow-up fell 58% to $61.7 million while I called for $82 million. Nevertheless its two-week tally stands at a soaring $269 million.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was third in weekend #3 with $6.9 million, a tad ahead of my $6.2 million prediction for $49 million thus far.

Predator: Badlands was fourth in its fourth go-round with $4.8 million (I said $4.6 million). The franchise entry has $85 million in its coffers as it should come close to nine digits stateside.

The Running Man rounded out the top five with $3.7 million, in line with my $3.4 million forecast for an underwhelming $34 million in three weeks.

Finally, rom com Eternity with Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen was sixth out of the gate with $3.1 million over the traditional weekend and $5.2 million since Wednesday. That’s in range with my respective takes of $3 million and $4.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 Box Office Prediction

Arriving in theaters exclusively two years after its predecessor did a simultaneous release on Peacock and in multiplexes, Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 is out December 5th. Based on the Scott Cawton created video game series, the horror sequel sees Emma Tammi back directing. Returning cast members include Josh Hutcherson, Elizabeth Lail, Piper Rubio, and Matthew Lillard. Newcomers to the mix are Skeet Ulrich, Wayne Knight, Mckenna Grace, and Teo Briones.

In October 2023, Freddy’s greatly exceeded expectations with a fab $80 million out of the gate despite it being available at home for paying customers. The front loaded debut yielded a $137 million overall domestic haul. That detail could be key as part 2 could struggle. Fans of the games were deeply divided about whether the original did its source material justice. They came out right away to see it but word-of-mouth fizzled and some casual moviegoers steered clear. Many may not turn up for a second reservation.

Estimates have this only earning half of what part 1 achieved. This is a bit reminiscent of the M3GAN franchise where the 2022 pic landed a potent and unanticipated $30 million debut and this year’s sequel petered out with only $10 million. I’ll say Freddy’s 2 only gets mid to maybe high 30s.

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 opening weekend prediction: $36.5 million

For my Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution prediction, click here: